833 resultados para out-of-sample forecast
Resumo:
This paper argues that postcolonial notions of diaspora are premised on immigrant subjectivities and standpoints which do not fully apprehend the mixed-race / bi-racial experience and the local effect of cultural hybridity in Western settings. The paper was prompted by a recent conversation with Dee, the daughter of a Japanese warbride. As a child Dee recalled being told by her friend's mother that 'nothing good ever came out of Japan'. The significance of constant interpolations into 'Asianness' by statements such as these; by the 'where do you come from?' question and by more blatant discriminations are inadequately addressed by traditional and postcolonial notions of diaspora. 'Roots' and 'routes' imagery feature prominently in discussions of diaspora and hybridity which aim to decolonise culture and identity in deconstructive moves that highlight their flexible, multiple, contractedness. While it has been argued that even these conceptualisations are problematic because they privilege orders of explanation, theory and standpoint that are forced back into line with traditional notions of discrete 'races', cultures, ethnicities and identities, cultural studies and postcolonial theorists do not appear to find this contradiction overly troubling. Lodged in bodies that do not easily conflate to neat either/or cultures, politics and genetics, race-mixing also defies and yet return us to culture and biology. However, I argue that their refractions though the same tired old orders of racial, ethnic, cultural and national differentiation prevent us from disregarding the discursive effects of racism and racialisation.
Resumo:
Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.
Resumo:
This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.
Resumo:
The present study investigates the effect of different sample preparation methods on the pyrolysis behaviour of metal-added biomass; Willow samples were compared in the presence of two salts of zinc and lead containing sulphate and nitrate anions which were added to the wood samples with three different techniques as dry-mixing, impregnation and ion-exchange. The effect of acid and water wash as common demineralisation pre-treatments were also analysed to evaluate their roles in the thermal degradation of the biomass. Results from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and pyrolysis-mass spectrometry (Py-MS) measurements indicated that these pre-treatments change the matrix and the physical-chemical properties of wood. Results suggested that these structural changes increase the thermal stability of cellulose during pyrolysis. Sample preparation was also found to be a crucial factor during pyrolysis; different anions of metal salts changed the weight loss rate curves of wood material, which indicates changes in the primary degradation process of the biomass. Results also showed that dry-mixing, impregnation or ion-exchange influence the thermal behaviour of wood in different ways when a chosen metal salt was and added to the wood material. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Teacher-fronted interaction is generally seen to place limitations on the contributions that learners can make to classroom discourse and the conclusion is that learners are unable to experiment with, for example, turn-taking mechanisms. This article looks at teacher-fronted interaction in the language classroom from the perspective of learner talk by examining how learners might take the initiative during this apparently more rigid form of interaction. Detailed microanalysis of classroom episodes, using a conversation analysis institutional discourse approach, shows how learners orient to the institutional context to make sophisticated and effective use of turn-taking mechanisms to take the initiative and direct the interaction, even in the controlled environment of teacher-fronted talk. The article describes some of the functions of such learner initiative, examines how learners and teachers co-construct interaction and how learners can create learning opportunities for themselves. It also briefly looks at teacher reactions to such initiative. The article concludes that learner initiative in teacher-fronted interaction may constitute a significant opportunity for learning and that teachers should find ways of encouraging such interaction patterns.
Resumo:
This study examines the selectivity and timing performance of 218 UK investment trusts over the period July 1981 to June 2009. We estimate the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models augmented with the size, value, and momentum factors, either under the OLS method adjusted with the Newey-West procedure or under the GARCH(1,1)-in-mean method following the specification of Glosten et al. (1993; hereafter GJR-GARCH-M). We find that the OLS method provides little evidence in favour of the selectivity and timing ability, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the GJR-GARCH-M method reverses this result, showing some relatively strong evidence on favourable selectivity ability, particularly for international funds, as well as favourable timing ability, particularly for domestic funds. We conclude that the GJR-GARCH-M method performs better in evaluating fund performance compared with the OLS method and the non-parametric approach, as it essentially accounts for the time-varying characteristics of factor loadings and hence obtains more reliable results, in particular, when the high frequency data, such as the daily returns, are used in the analysis. Our results are robust to various in-sample and out-of-sample tests and have valuable implications for practitioners in making their asset allocation decisions across different fund styles. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
Resumo:
The goal of this research is to investigate consumer response to out-of-stock product in the produce category. We do this by comparing results from a survey conducted in Greece and the United States to previous research on consumer response to out-of-stock situations for other perishable and non-perishable products. We further examined the underlying economic reasoning as well as the cultural and physical differences between the United States and Greece as explanations of different reactions. Out of Stock produce response proved different in produce than in other perishables and non-perishables. There is some evidence that produce does follow previous the suggested economic reasoning from the previous research, especially within transaction costs. Finally, the respondent’s country proved very significant in dictating response.
Resumo:
We use non-parametric procedures to identify breaks in the underlying series of UK household sector money demand functions. Money demand functions are estimated using cointegration techniques and by employing both the Simple Sum and Divisia measures of money. P-star models are also estimated for out-of-sample inflation forecasting. Our findings suggest that the presence of breaks affects both the estimation of cointegrated money demand functions and the inflation forecasts. P-star forecast models based on Divisia measures appear more accurate at longer horizons and the majority of models with fundamentals perform better than a random walk model.
Resumo:
Models for the conditional joint distribution of the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen exchange rates, from November 2001 until June 2007, are evaluated and compared. The conditional dependency is allowed to vary across time, as a function of either historical returns or a combination of past return data and option-implied dependence estimates. Using prices of currency options that are available in the public domain, risk-neutral dependency expectations are extracted through a copula repre- sentation of the bivariate risk-neutral density. For this purpose, we employ either the one-parameter \Normal" or a two-parameter \Gumbel Mixture" specification. The latter provides forward-looking information regarding the overall degree of covariation, as well as, the level and direction of asymmetric dependence. Specifications that include option-based measures in their information set are found to outperform, in-sample and out-of-sample, models that rely solely on historical returns.
Resumo:
Effective measures are being taken to reduce emissions from cars, which are now emerging as a major contributor to climate change. Developed countries will need to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050 to achieve stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration between 450 and 550 ppm, and have a unique opportunity to avoid the most damaging effects of climate change. The UK is aiming at completely decarbonising transport by 2050 through a combination of more efficient vehicles, cleaner fuels, and smart driving choices. The European Commission has proposed a mandatory CO2 target on new car CO 2 efficiency, which is an urgent needed development. The nation is also using regulatory targets for local schemes, such as free parking or congestion charging, break points for company car tax, and vehicle excise duty. Car ownership and use should thereby continue to drive economic growth and enhance quality of life around the world without destroying the planet.
Resumo:
The return to methods focusing on language and experience following the dominance of experimental methods has in the last few decades led to debate, dialogue, and disagreement regarding the status of qualitative and quantitative methods. However, a recent focus on impact has brought an air of pragmatism to the research arena. In what ways, then, is psychology moving from entrenched mono methods approaches that have epitomised its development until recently, to describing and discussing ways in which mixed and pluralistic research can advance and contribute to further, deeper psychological understanding?.