Quantifying the impact of land-use change on European farmland bird populations

The EU has adopted the European Farmland Bird Index (EFBI) as a Structural and Sustainable Development Indicator and a proxy for wider biodiversity health on farmland. Changes in the EFBI over coming years are likely to reflect how well agri-environment schemes (AES), funded under Pillar 2 (Axis 2) of the Common Agricultural Policy, have been able to offset the detrimental impacts of past agricultural changes and deliver appropriate hazard prevention or risk mitigation strategies alongside current and future agricultural change. The delivery of a stable or positive trend in the EFBI will depend on the provision of sufficient funding to appropriately designed and implemented AES. We present a trait-based framework which can be used to quantify the detrimental impact of land-use change on farmland bird populations across Europe. We use the framework to show that changes in resource availability within the cropped area of agricultural landscapes have been the key driver of current declines in farmland bird populations. We assess the relative contribution of each Member State to the level of the EFBI and explore the relationship between risk contribution and Axis 2 funding allocation. Our results suggest that agricultural changes in each Member State do not have an equal impact on the EFBI, with land-use and management change in Spain having a particularly large influence on its level, and that funding is poorly targeted with respect to biodiversity conservation needs. We also use the framework to predict the EFBI in 2020 for a number of land-use change scenarios. This approach can be used to guide both the development and implementation of targeted AES and the objective distribution of Pillar 2 funds between and within Member States. We hope that this will contribute to the cost-effective and efficient delivery of Rural Development strategy and biodiversity conservation targets.

Resource availability and the persistence of seed-eating bird populations in agricultural landscapes – a mechanistic modelling approach

1. Reductions in resource availability, associated with land-use change and agricultural intensification in the UK and Europe, have been linked with the widespread decline of many farmland bird species over recent decades. However, the underlying ecological processes which link resource availability and population trends are poorly understood. 2. We construct a spatial depletion model to investigate the relationship between the population persistence of granivorous birds within the agricultural landscape and the temporal dynamics of stubble field availability, an important source of winter food for many of those species. 3. The model is capable of accurately predicting the distribution of a given number of finches and buntings amongst patches of different stubble types in an agricultural landscape over the course of a winter and assessing the relative value of different landscapes in terms of resource availability. 4. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model is relatively robust to estimates of energetic requirements, search efficiency and handling time but that daily seed survival estimates have a strong influence on model fit. Understanding resource dynamics in agricultural landscapes is highlighted as a key area for further research. 5. There was a positive relationship between the predicted number of bird days supported by a landscape over-winter and the breeding population trend for yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella, a species for which survival has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics, but not for linnet Carduelis cannabina, a species for which productivity has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. We believe this model can be used to guide the effective delivery of over-winter food resources under agri-environment schemes and to assess the impacts on granivorous birds of changing resource availability associated with novel changes in land use. This could be very important in the future as farming adapts to an increasingly dynamic trading environment, in which demands for increased agricultural production must be reconciled with objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation.

Genetic differentiation between hosts and locations in populations of latent Botrytis cinerea in southern England

This study tested the hypothesis that aggressive, localized infections and asymptomatic systemic infections were caused by distinct specialized groups of Botrytis cinerea, using microsatellite genotypes at nine loci of 243 isolates of B. cinerea obtained from four hosts (strawberry (Fragaria ´ananassa), blackberry (Rubus fruticosus agg.), dandelion, (Taraxacum of®- cinale agg.) and primrose (Primula vulgaris)) in three regions in southern England (in the vicinities of Brighton, Reading and Bath). The populations were extremely variable, with up to 20 alleles per locus and high genic diversity. Each host in each region had a population of B. cinerea with distinctive genetic features, and there were also consistent host and regional distinctions. The B. cinerea population from strawberry was distinguished from that on other hosts, including blackberry, most notably by a common 154-bp amplicon at locus 5 (present in 35 of 77 samples) that was rare in isolates from other hosts (9¤166), and by the rarity (3¤77) of a 112-bp allele at locus 7 that was common (58¤166) in isolates from other hosts. There was signi®cant linkage disequilibrium overall within the B. cinerea populations on blackberry and strawberry, but with quite different patterns of association among isolates from the two hosts. No evidence was found for differentiation between populations of B. cinerea from systemically infected hosts and those from locally infected fruits.

Thalassaemia: its diagnosis and interpretation in past skeletal populations

The diagnosis of thalassaemia in archaeological populations has long been hindered by a lack of pathogonomic features, and the non-specific nature of cribra orbitalia and porotic hyperostosis. In fact, clinical research has highlighted more specific diagnostic criteria for thalassaemia major and intermedia based on changes to the thorax (‘rib-within-a-rib’ and costal osteomas). A recent re-examination of 364 child skeletons from Romano-British Poundbury Camp, Dorset revealed children with general ‘wasting’ of the bones and three children who demonstrated a variety of severe lesions (e.g. zygomatic bone and rib hypertrophy, porotic hyperostosis, rib lesions, osteopenia and pitted diaphyseal shafts) that are inconsistent with dietary deficiency alone, and more consistent with a diagnosis of genetic anaemia. Two of these children displayed rib lesions typical of those seen in modern cases of thalassaemia. The children of Poundbury Camp represent the first cases of genetic anaemia identified in a British archaeological population. As thalassaemia is a condition strongly linked to Mediterranean communities, the presence of this condition in a child from England, found within a mausoleum, suggests that they were born to wealthy immigrant parents living in this small Roman settlement in Dorset. This paper explores the diagnostic criteria for genetic anaemia in the archaeological literature and what its presence in ancient populations can contribute to our knowledge of past human migration.

Examination of faecal Bifidobacterium populations in breast- and formula-fed infants during the first 18 months of life.

Bifidobacteria in the infant faecal microbiota have been the focus of much interest, especially during the exclusive milk-feeding period and in relation to the fortification of infant formulae to better mimic breast milk. However, longitudinal studies examining the diversity and dynamics of the Bifidobacterium population of infants are lacking, particularly in relation to the effects of weaning. Using a polyphasic strategy, the Bifidobacterium populations of breast- and formula-fed infants were examined during the first 18 months of life. Bifidobacterium-specific denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis demonstrated that breast-fed infants harboured greater diversity than formula-fed infants and the diversity of the infants' Bifidobacterium populations increased with weaning. Twenty-seven distinctive banding profiles were observed from ∼1100 infant isolates using ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis, 14 biotypes of which were confirmed to be members of the genus Bifidobacterium. Two profiles (H, Bifidobacterium longum subsp. infantis; and I, Bifidobacterium bifidum) were common culturable biotypes, seen in 9/10 infants, while profile E (Bifidobacterium breve) was common among breast-fed infants. Overall, inter- and intra-individual differences were observed in the Bifidobacterium populations of infants between 1 and 18 months of age, although weaning was associated with increased diversity of the infant Bifidobacterium populations. Breast-fed infants generally harboured a more complex Bifidobacterium microbiota than formula-fed infants.

Adaptive divergence and speciation among sexual and pseudoviviparous populations of Festuca

Pseudovivipary is an environmentally induced flowering abnormality in which vegetative shoots replace seminiferous (sexual) inflorescences. Pseudovivipary is usually retained in transplantation experiments, indicating that the trait is not solely induced by the growing environment. Pseudovivipary is the defining characteristic of Festuca vivipara, and arguably the only feature separating this species from its closest seminiferous relative, Festuca ovina. We performed phylogenetic and population genetic analysis on sympatric F. ovina and F. vivipara samples to establish whether pseudovivipary is an adaptive trait that accurately defines the separation of genetically distinct Festuca species. Chloroplast and nuclear marker-based analyses revealed that variation at a geographical level can exceed that between F. vivipara and F. ovina. We deduced that F. vivipara is a recent species that frequently arises independently within F. ovina populations and has not accumulated significant genetic differentiation from its progenitor. We inferred local gene flow between the species. We identified one amplified fragment length polymorphism marker that may be linked to a pseudovivipary-related region of the genome, and several other markers provide evidence of regional local adaptation in Festuca populations. We conclude that F. vivipara can only be appropriately recognized as a morphologically and ecologically distinct species; it lacks genetic differentiation from its relatives. This is the first report of a ‘failure in normal flowering development’ that repeatedly appears to be adaptive, such that the trait responsible for species recognition constantly reappears on a local basis.

Relatedness testing in subdivided populations

Assigning probabilities to alleged relationships, given DNA profiles, requires, among other things, calculation of a likelihood ratio (LR). Such calculations usually assume independence of genes: this assumption is not appropriate when the tested individuals share recent ancestry due to population substructure. Adjusted LR formulae, incorporating the coancestry coefficient F(ST), are presented here for various two-person relationships, and the issue of mutations in parentage testing is also addressed.

A two-locus forensic match probability for subdivided populations

A two-locus match probability is presented that incorporates the effects of within-subpopulation inbreeding (consanguinity) in addition to population subdivision. The usual practice of calculating multi-locus match probabilities as the product of single-locus probabilities assumes independence between loci. There are a number of population genetics phenomena that can violate this assumption: in addition to consanguinity, which increases homozygosity at all loci simultaneously, gametic disequilibrium will introduce dependence into DNA profiles. However, in forensics the latter problem is usually addressed in part by the careful choice of unlinked loci. Hence, as is conventional, we assume gametic equilibrium here, and focus instead on between-locus dependence due to consanguinity. The resulting match probability formulae are an extension of existing methods in the literature, and are shown to be more conservative than these methods in the case of double homozygote matches. For two-locus profiles involving one or more heterozygous genotypes, results are similar to, or smaller than, the existing approaches.

Detecting an impact of predation on bird populations depends on the methods used to assess the predators

Summary 1. In recent decades there have been population declines of many UK bird species, which have become the focus of intense research and debate. Recently, as the populations of potential predators have increased there is concern that increased rates of predation may be contributing to the declines. In this review, we assess the methodologies behind the current published science on the impacts of predators on avian prey in the UK. 2. We identified suitable studies, classified these according to study design (experimental ⁄observational) and assessed the quantity and quality of the data upon which any variation in predation rates was inferred. We then explored whether the underlying study methodology had implications for study outcome. 3. We reviewed 32 published studies and found that typically observational studies comprehensively monitored significantly fewer predator species than experimental studies. Data for a difference in predator abundance from targeted (i.e. bespoke) census techniques were available for less than half of the 32 predator species studied. 4. The probability of a study detecting an impact on prey abundance was strongly, positively related to the quality and quantity of data upon which the gradient in predation rates was inferred. 5. The findings suggest that if a study is based on good quality abundance data for a range of predator species then it is more likely to detect an effect than if it relies on opportunistic data for a smaller number of predators. 6. We recommend that the findings from studies which use opportunistic data, for a limited number of predator species, should be treated with caution and that future studies employ bespoke census techniques to monitor predator abundance for an appropriate suite of predators.