A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

Model updating of the non-linear vibrating structures through Volterra series and proper orthogonal decomposition

Classical procedures for model updating in non-linear mechanical systems based on vibration data can fail because the common linear metrics are not sensitive for non-linear behavior caused by gaps, backlash, bolts, joints, materials, etc. Several strategies were proposed in the literature in order to allow a correct representative model of non-linear structures. The present paper evaluates the performance of two approaches based on different objective functions. The first one is a time domain methodology based on the proper orthogonal decomposition constructed from the output time histories. The second approach uses objective functions with multiples convolutions described by the first and second order discrete-time Volterra kernels. In order to discuss the results, a benchmark of a clamped-clamped beam with an pre-applied static load is simulated and updated using proper orthogonal decomposition and Volterra Series. The comparisons and discussions of the results show the practical applicability and drawbacks of both approaches.

Non-destructive linear model for leaf area estimation in Vernonia ferruginea Less

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Linear matrix inequality-based robust model predictive control for time-delayed systems

This work addresses the solution to the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) of systems with model uncertainty. The case of zone control of multi-variable stable systems with multiple time delays is considered. The usual approach of dealing with this kind of problem is through the inclusion of non-linear cost constraint in the control problem. The control action is then obtained at each sampling time as the solution to a non-linear programming (NLP) problem that for high-order systems can be computationally expensive. Here, the robust MPC problem is formulated as a linear matrix inequality problem that can be solved in real time with a fraction of the computer effort. The proposed approach is compared with the conventional robust MPC and tested through the simulation of a reactor system of the process industry.

Probabilistic crack growth analyses using a boundary element model: Applications in linear elastic fracture and fatigue problems

This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiproperty modeling for a set of binary systems. Evaluation of a model to correlate simultaneously several mixing properties of methyl ethanoate+alkanes and new experimental data

[EN] This work makes a theoretical–experimental contribution to the study of ester and alkane solutions. Experimental data of isobaric vapor–liquid equilibria (VLE) are presented at 101.3 kPa for binary systems of methyl ethanoate with six alkanes (from C5 to C10), and of volumes and mixing enthalpies, vE and hE.

A linear O(N) model: a functional renormalization group approach for flat and curved space

In questa tesi sono state applicate le tecniche del gruppo di rinormalizzazione funzionale allo studio della teoria quantistica di campo scalare con simmetria O(N) sia in uno spaziotempo piatto (Euclideo) che nel caso di accoppiamento ad un campo gravitazionale nel paradigma dell'asymptotic safety. Nel primo capitolo vengono esposti in breve alcuni concetti basilari della teoria dei campi in uno spazio euclideo a dimensione arbitraria. Nel secondo capitolo si discute estensivamente il metodo di rinormalizzazione funzionale ideato da Wetterich e si fornisce un primo semplice esempio di applicazione, il modello scalare. Nel terzo capitolo è stato studiato in dettaglio il modello O(N) in uno spaziotempo piatto, ricavando analiticamente le equazioni di evoluzione delle quantità rilevanti del modello. Quindi ci si è specializzati sul caso N infinito. Nel quarto capitolo viene iniziata l'analisi delle equazioni di punto fisso nel limite N infinito, a partire dal caso di dimensione anomala nulla e rinormalizzazione della funzione d'onda costante (approssimazione LPA), già studiato in letteratura. Viene poi considerato il caso NLO nella derivative expansion. Nel quinto capitolo si è introdotto l'accoppiamento non minimale con un campo gravitazionale, la cui natura quantistica è considerata a livello di QFT secondo il paradigma di rinormalizzabilità dell'asymptotic safety. Per questo modello si sono ricavate le equazioni di punto fisso per le principali osservabili e se ne è studiato il comportamento per diversi valori di N.

A Functional-Based Distribution Diagnostic for a Linear Model with Correlated Outcomes: Technical Report

Despite the widespread popularity of linear models for correlated outcomes (e.g. linear mixed modesl and time series models), distribution diagnostic methodology remains relatively underdeveloped in this context. In this paper we present an easy-to-implement approach that lends itself to graphical displays of model fit. Our approach involves multiplying the estimated marginal residual vector by the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse of the estimated marginal variance matrix. Linear functions or the resulting "rotated" residuals are used to construct an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF), whose stochastic limit is characterized. We describe a resampling technique that serves as a computationally efficient parametric bootstrap for generating representatives of the stochastic limit of the ECDF. Through functionals, such representatives are used to construct global tests for the hypothesis of normal margional errors. In addition, we demonstrate that the ECDF of the predicted random effects, as described by Lange and Ryan (1989), can be formulated as a special case of our approach. Thus, our method supports both omnibus and directed tests. Our method works well in a variety of circumstances, including models having independent units of sampling (clustered data) and models for which all observations are correlated (e.g., a single time series).

An insulin infusion advisory system for type 1 diabetes patients based on non-linear model predictive control methods

In this paper, an Insulin Infusion Advisory System (IIAS) for Type 1 diabetes patients, which use insulin pumps for the Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion (CSII) is presented. The purpose of the system is to estimate the appropriate insulin infusion rates. The system is based on a Non-Linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) which uses a hybrid model. The model comprises a Compartmental Model (CM), which simulates the absorption of the glucose to the blood due to meal intakes, and a Neural Network (NN), which simulates the glucose-insulin kinetics. The NN is a Recurrent NN (RNN) trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The output of the model consists of short term glucose predictions and provides input to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. For the development and the evaluation of the IIAS, data generated from a Mathematical Model (MM) of a Type 1 diabetes patient have been used. The proposed control strategy is evaluated at multiple meal disturbances, various noise levels and additional time delays. The results indicate that the implemented IIAS is capable of handling multiple meals, which correspond to realistic meal profiles, large noise levels and time delays.