Correcting mortality for loss to follow-up: a nomogram applied to antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background The World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART. Methods and Findings We developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year. Conclusions The amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

Closed Time-like Curves and Inertial Frame Dragging: How to Time Travel via Spacetime Rotation

As the number of solutions to the Einstein equations with realistic matter sources that admit closed time-like curves (CTC's) has grown drastically, it has provoked some authors [10] to call for a physical interpretation of these seemingly exotic curves that could possibly allow for causality violations. A first step in drafting a physical interpretation would be to understand how CTC's are created because the recent work of [16] has suggested that, to follow a CTC, observers must counter-rotate with the rotating matter, contrary to the currently accepted explanation that it is due to inertial frame dragging that CTC's are created. The exact link between inertialframe dragging and CTC's is investigated by simulating particle geodesics and the precession of gyroscopes along CTC's and backward in time oriented circular orbits in the van Stockum metric, known to have CTC's that could be traversal, so the van Stockum cylinder could be exploited as a time machine. This study of gyroscopeprecession, in the van Stockum metric, supports the theory that CTC's are produced by inertial frame dragging due to rotating spacetime metrics.

Vaginal practices as women's agency in sub-Saharan Africa: a synthesis of meaning and motivation through meta-ethnography

This paper reports on a systematic review of qualitative research about vaginal practices in sub-Saharan Africa, which used meta-ethnographic methods to understand their origins, their meanings for the women who use them, and how they have evolved in time and place. We included published documents which were based on qualitative methods of data collection and analysis and contained information on vaginal practices. After screening, 16 texts were included which dated from 1951 to 2008. We found that practices evolve and adapt to present circumstances and that they remain an important source of power for women to negotiate challenges that they face. Recent evidence suggests that some practices may increase a woman's susceptibility to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The success of new female-controlled prevention technologies, such as microbicides, might be determined by whether they can and will be used by women in the course of their daily life.

Fecal carriage of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in swine and cattle at slaughter in Switzerland

During the past decade, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae have become a matter of great concern in human medicine. ESBL-producing strains are found in the community, not just in hospital-associated patients, which raises a question about possible reservoirs. Recent studies describe the occurrence of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in meat, fish, and raw milk; therefore, the impact of food animals as reservoirs for and disseminators of such strains into the food production chain must be assessed. In this pilot study, fecal samples of 59 pigs and 64 cattle were investigated to determine the occurrence of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in farm animals at slaughter in Switzerland. Presumptive-positive colonies on Brilliance ESBL agar were subjected to identification and antibiotic susceptibility testing including the disc diffusion method and E-test ESBL strips. As many as 15.2% of the porcine and 17.1% of the bovine samples, predominantly from calves, yielded ESBL producers. Of the 21 isolated strains, 20 were Escherichia coli, and one was Citrobacter youngae. PCR analysis revealed that 18 strains including C. youngae produced CTX-M group 1 ESBLs, and three strains carried genes encoding for CTX-M group 9 enzymes. In addition, eight isolates were PCR positive for TEM beta-lactamase, but no bla(SHV) genes were detected. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis showed a high genetic diversity within the strains. The relatively high rates of occurrence of ESBLproducing strains in food animals and the high genetic diversity among these strains indicate that there is an established reservoir of these organisms in farm animals. Further studies are necessary to assess future trends.

Spike-based decision learning of nash equilibria in two-player games

Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic) and mixed (stochastic) Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD)-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

Risk Factors for Physical Restraint Use in Nursing Homes: The Impact of the Nursing Home Reform Act

This study examined the impact of the Nursing Home Reform Act of 1987 on resident-and-facility-level risk factors for physical restraint use in nursing homes. Data on the 1990 and 1993 cohorts were obtained from 268 facilities in 10 states, and data on a 1996 cohort were obtained from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which sampled more than 800 nursing homes nationwide. Multivariate logistic regression models were generated for each cohort to identify the impact of resident- and facility-level risk factors for restraint use. The results indicate that the use of physical restraints continues to decline. Thirty-six percent of the 1990 cohort, 26 percent of the 1993 cohort, and 17 percent of the 1996 cohort were physically restrained. Although there was a reduced rate of restraint use from 1990 to 1996, similar resident-level factors but different facility-level factors were associated with restraint use at different points in time.

The Representation of Motherhood in Polish Cinema

The project aimed to analyse representations of motherhood in Polish cinema as a special case of a more general system within the representation of women. It concentrated on the image of the Polish Mother created during the 19th century in Polish culture under the influence of specific political, social and religious factors. Ms. Ostrowska's initial hypothesis was that this symbolic image became one of the most stable elements in Polish cinema and as her research revealed, it was valuable for the preservation of national identity but nevertheless a fiercely constraining model for Polish femininity. In order to fully understand the nature of this persistent image it was initially necessary to related it to broader contexts and issues in representation. These included the image of the Polish Mother within general mythological structures (using the notion of myth in the Barthesian sense). Following her initial research Ms. Ostrowska felt that it was most appropriate to view the myth of the Polish Mother as a dominant ideological structure in the discourse of motherhood within Polish culture. An analysis of the myth of the Polish Mother can provide an insight into how Polish society sees itself at different periods in time and how a national identity was constructed in relation to particular ideological demands stemming from concrete historical and political situations. The analysis of the film version of this myth also revealed some aspects of the national character of Polish cinema. There the image of woman has become enshrined as the "eternal feminine", with virtues which are inevitably derived directly from Catholicism, particularly in relation to the networks of meanings around the central figure of Mary, Mother of God. In 19th century Poland these were linked with patriotic values and images of woman became part of the defence of the very idea of Poland and Polishness. After World War Two, this religious-political image system was adapted to the demands of the new communist ideology. The possibility of manipulating the ideological dimensions of the myth of the Polish Mother is due to the very nature of the image, which as a symbol of civil religion had been able to function independently of any particular state or church institution. Although in communist ideology the stress was on the patriotic aspect of the myth, its pronounced religious aspect was also transmitted, consciously or not, in the denotation process, this being of great significance in the viewer's response to the female character. This appropriation of elements derived from the national patriotic tradition into the discourse of communist ideology was a very efficient strategy to establish the illusion of continuity in national existence, which was supposed to convince society of the rightness of the new political situation. The analysis of films made in the post-war period showed the persistence of this discourse on motherhood in a range of cinematic texts regardless of the changing political situation. Ms. Ostrowska claims that the stability of this discursive formation is to a certain extent the result of the mythological aspect of the mother figure. This mythological structure also belongs to the ideology of Romanticism which in general continues to prevail in Polish cultural discourse as a meta-language of national community. The analysis of the films confirmed the hypothesis of the Polish Mother as a myth-sign whose signifier is stable whereas the signified depends on the specific historical conditions in which it is set. Therefore in the famous propaganda documentary Kobiety naszych dni (Women of Our Days, 1951) by Jan Zelnik, and in other films made after the October 1956 "thaw" it functions as an "empty sign. She concludes that it would be difficult to deny that the myth of the Polish Mother has offered Polish women a special role in national life, granting them a high moral position in the social, hierarchy. However the processes of idealisation involved have resulted in a deprivation of her subjectivity and the right to decide about her own life. This idealisation also served to strengthen traditional patriarchal structures through this set of female obligations to the mother land. In Polish ideology it is not a man who demands sacrifice from a woman but the motherland, which, deprived of the institutions of male power for nearly 150 years, had functioned as a feminine structure. That is why oppressive aspects of the myth have been obscured for so long. While Polish women were doubtless able to accept the constrictions because of their sense of national duty and any misgivings were overridden by the argument of the cause, it is important to recognise that the strength of these constructions, compounded by the ways in which they spoke of and continue to speak of a certain perfection, make them persist into contemporary Poland. Poland is however no longer embattled and the signs that made these meanings are potentially empty. This space for meaning will be and is already being contested and increasingly colonised by current western models of femininity. Ms. Ostrowska's final question is whether this will help to prevent a possible resentful victimisation of the silent and noble Polish Mother.

Daptomycin is more efficacious than vancomycin against a methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus in experimental meningitis

OBJECTIVES: To test the efficacy of daptomycin, a cyclic lipopeptide antibiotic, against a methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus strain in experimental rabbit meningitis and to determine its penetration into non-inflamed and inflamed meninges RESULTS: Over a treatment period of 8 h, daptomycin (15 mg/kg) was significantly superior to the comparator regimen vancomycin (-4.54 +/- 1.12 log(10)/mL for daptomycin versus -3.43 +/- 1.17 log(10)/mL for vancomycin). Daptomycin managed to sterilize 6 out of 10 CSFs compared with 4 out of 10 for vancomycin. The penetration of daptomycin into inflamed meninges was approximately 5% and approximately 2% into non-inflamed meninges. CONCLUSIONS: The superior bactericidal activity of daptomycin was confirmed in vivo and in time-killing assays in vitro.

Youth and Young Adult Homelessness in Worcester, Massachusetts:

Supporting Worcester’s ongoing effort to understand and address youth and young adult homelessness, the Community Roundtable on Youth Homelessness in conjunction with the Compass Project and Clark University conducted the fourth annual Point-in-Time Survey during October of 2012. Young people were surveyed at city shelters, youth programs, outside of schools, in parks, and on the streets of Worcester. Out of the 753 young people (ages 13to 25) surveyed, 120 (16%) dentified as homeless. We define homeless to include young people in shelters, staying with others temporarily (i.e. couch surfing) or on the streets. In addition to these 120 young people, another 220 youth who were housed reported that they had a friend who was homeless. As in prior years, when compared to their housed counterparts in the study, homeless youth: Have experienced more residential instability and family conflict; Have more precarious income situations; Are more likely to have children; Are more likely to have had involvement with the foster care and/or juvenile justice systems; and Have faced more barriers accessing services.

Markers Models in Survival Analysis and Applications to Issues Associated with AIDS

Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) consider the use of marker processes for applications related to estimation of the survival distribution of time to failure. Marker processes were assumed to be stochastic processes that, at a given point in time, provide information about the current hazard and consequently on the remaining time to failure. Particular attention was paid to calculations based on a simple additive model for the relationship between the hazard function at time t and the history of the marker process up until time t. Specific applications to the analysis of AIDS data included the use of markers as surrogate responses for onset of AIDS with censored data and as predictors of the time elapsed since infection in prevalent individuals. Here we review recent work on the use of marker data to tackle these kinds of problems with AIDS data. The Poisson marker process with an additive model, introduced in Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) may be a useful "test" example for comparison of various procedures.

Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS.

Brain connectivity at different time-scales measured with EEG

We present an overview of different methods for decomposing a multichannel spontaneous electroencephalogram (EEG) into sets of temporal patterns and topographic distributions. All of the methods presented here consider the scalp electric field as the basic analysis entity in space. In time, the resolution of the methods is between milliseconds (time-domain analysis), subseconds (time- and frequency-domain analysis) and seconds (frequency-domain analysis). For any of these methods, we show that large parts of the data can be explained by a small number of topographic distributions. Physically, this implies that the brain regions that generated one of those topographies must have been active with a common phase. If several brain regions are producing EEG signals at the same time and frequency, they have a strong tendency to do this in a synchronized mode. This view is illustrated by several examples (including combined EEG and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)) and a selective review of the literature. The findings are discussed in terms of short-lasting binding between different brain regions through synchronized oscillations, which could constitute a mechanism to form transient, functional neurocognitive networks.

Cefepime is efficacious against penicillin- and quinolone-resistant pneumococci in experimental meningitis

In experimental rabbit meningitis, cefepime given at a dose of 100 mg/kg was associated with concentrations in the cerebrospinal fluid of between 5.3 and 10 mg/L and a bactericidal activity of -0.61 +/- 0.24 Delta log(10) cfu/mL x h, similar to the standard regimen of ceftriaxone combined with vancomycin (-0.58 +/- 0.14 Delta log(10) cfu/mL x h) in the treatment of meningitis due to a penicillin- and quinolone-resistant pneumococcal mutant strain (MIC 4 mg/L). Compared with the penicillin-resistant parental strain, the penicillin- and quinolone-resistant mutant was killed more slowly by cefepime and ceftriaxone in time-killing assays in vitro over 8 h.

Gentamicin increases the efficacy of vancomycin against penicillin-resistant pneumococci in the rabbit meningitis model

In experimental meningitis a single dose of gentamicin (10 mg/kg of body weight) led to gentamicin levels in around cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of 4 mg/liter for 4 h, decreasing slowly to 2 mg/liter 4 h later. The CSF penetration of gentamicin ranged around 27%, calculated by comparison of areas under the curve (AUC in serum/AUC in CSF). Gentamicin monotherapy (-1.24 log(10) CFU/ml) was inferior to vancomycin monotherapy (-2.54 log(10) CFU/ml) over 8 h against penicillin-resistant pneumococci. However, the combination of vancomycin with gentamicin was significantly superior (-4.48 log(10) CFU/ml) compared to either monotherapy alone. The synergistic activity of vancomycin combined with gentamicin was also demonstrated in vitro in time-kill assays.

Evaluation of cefepime alone and in combination with vancomycin against penicillin-resistant pneumococci in the rabbit meningitis model and in vitro

Cefepime, a broad-spectrum, fourth-generation cephalosporin, showed excellent CSF penetration with levels ranging between 10 and 16 mg/L after two intravenous injections (100 mg/kg). The bactericidal activity of cefepime (-0.60 +/- 0.28 Deltalog(10) cfu/mL/h) was superior to that of ceftriaxone (-0.34 +/- 0.23 Deltalog(10) cfu/mL/h, P < 0.05) and vancomycin (-0.39 +/- 0.19 Deltalog(10) cfu/mL/h, P < 0.05) in the treatment of rabbits with meningitis caused by an isolate highly resistant to penicillin (MIC of penicillin G: 4 mg/L). The addition of vancomycin to both cephalosporins did not significantly increase the killing rate compared with monotherapies (P > 0.05). Similar results were obtained in time-killing experiments in vitro.