A survey strategy for human respiratory syncytial virus detection among haematopoietic stem cell transplant patients: epidemiological and methodological analysis

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) causes severe infections among children and immunocompromised patients. We compared HRSV infections among Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant program (HSCT) patients and children using direct immunofluorescence (DFA), point-of-care RSV Bio Easy® and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. Overall, 102 samples from HSCT patients and 128 from children obtained positivity rate of 18.6% and 14.1% respectively. PCR sensitivity was highest mainly on samples collected after five days of symptoms onset. A combination of both DFA and reverse transcriptase-PCR methods for HSCT high-risk patients is the best diagnostic flow for HRSV diagnosis among these patients.

How to manage a virtual library?

Introduction. The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) was created in June 2006, after being determined by the II Quality Plan in the key process Guarantee the Knowledge Exchange into the Health System which was established by the Strategy IV, Knowledge Management, 2005-2008. It is a government strategy with its own budget and management with the aim of rationalizing the subscriptions into the Andalusian Health System and democratizing the health professional access to qualify scientific information, regardless of the professional workplace. Andalusia is a wide region with more than 8 million inhabitants, more than 90,000 health professionals for 41 hospitals, 1,500 primary healthcare centres, and 12 centres for non-medical attention purposes, and the Virtual Library was created to cover all this Health Services. Before the creation of the BV-SSPA every centre had its own budget and management decisions concerning scientific resources, with the creation of the BV-SSPA both management and budget were centralized. Objectives. With this work we pretend to analyze if the results after these five years have reached the expectations from an economic point of view and determine if really we can offer a benefit to the Andalusian Professional and Society in general. We will demonstrate the following: - The BV-SSPA supposed a cost reduction. It meant cost-effectiveness. - It resulted in Economics of Scale, as we have every year more resources and services investing a minor proportional amount of money. - In terms of Efficiency it implemented more services than the System had before its creation, we a lower budget. Methods. The BV-SSPA was appointed the only intermediary for contracting electronic resources destined to the Andalusian Health System. This had some consequences which should be analyzed: - Hospitals were not allowed to subscribe any resources. - Services offered for the whole System. - A remote access system was created. - Tools to give more visibility to the Public Health System were developed. - Negotiations techniques changed as the BV-SSPA is stronger than individual hospitals. Results. - The amount of 2,431 electronic reviews, 8 data bases and other scientific information resources at the disposal of the Andalusian Health System Professionals and available worldwide requiring only an internet connection. Before the BV-SSPA, 5,267 titles were subscribed by hospital and 2,967 of them were subscribed repeatedly (by two or more hospitals), this represented more than 55%. The rationalization of the subscription investment has been reached. - The establishment of several important scientific services for the whole territory of Andalusia, not only big hospitals. - The use of appropriate tools through a Web 2.0 and Social Media to be acknowledged by most National Health Professionals. Conclusions. It has been demonstrated that the BV-SSPA has become the Central Unit for purchasing, offering librarian services and a reference for users in terms of knowledge management, but from the point of view of business it has also obtained the following results: - Cost-Effectiveness: Its budget for subscriptions is lower than the hospital former one in a 30% and now more electronic resources are available. - Economics of Scale: Near 95,000 health professionals can access this Virtual Library in 2010. Before its creation Professionals for small hospital and Primary Care centres were not able to access to scientific information subscribed by big hospitals. - Efficiency Besides the central electronic purchasing, services were created for the System, without increasing the expenses: - Remote access to all the library resources independent of the user’s location. The BV-SSPA usage increased in a 147% in 2008, when it was installed. - The Document Supply Service implemented in 2009. - The Institutional Repository which contains the whole intellectual, scientific production generated by the Andalusian Public Health Professionals as a result of their healthcare, research or managing activity. - The creation of an application developed by the BV-SSPA to study the Andalusian Health System Scientific Production. - The visibility of the Andalusian Health System reached thanks to the BV-SSPA, through the numerous events in which it participates and organizes such as the 2nd. European National Digital Libraries of Health Conferences and the National Conference of Health Science Information and Documentation held in Cadiz in 2010; and its profile in social media where it can be contacted by citizens and health professionals all over the world. - Negotiation with electronic resource suppliers is much more advantageous as the BV-SSPA is stronger to deal with them thanks to its consolidated budget, its managing independence and its visibility.

Sensitivity of genome-wide-association signals to phenotyping strategy: the PROP-TAS2R38 taste association as a benchmark.

Natural genetic variation can have a pronounced influence on human taste perception, which in turn may influence food preference and dietary choice. Genome-wide association studies represent a powerful tool to understand this influence. To help optimize the design of future genome-wide-association studies on human taste perception we have used the well-known TAS2R38-PROP association as a tool to determine the relative power and efficiency of different phenotyping and data-analysis strategies. The results show that the choice of both data collection and data processing schemes can have a very substantial impact on the power to detect genotypic variation that affects chemosensory perception. Based on these results we provide practical guidelines for the design of future GWAS studies on chemosensory phenotypes. Moreover, in addition to the TAS2R38 gene past studies have implicated a number of other genetic loci to affect taste sensitivity to PROP and the related bitter compound PTC. None of these other locations showed genome-wide significant associations in our study. To facilitate further, target-gene driven, studies on PROP taste perception we provide the genome-wide list of p-values for all SNPs genotyped in the current study.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Impact of a preemptive strategy after 3 months of valganciclovir cytomegalovirus prophylaxis in kidney transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND.: We assessed the impact of a preemptive strategy after discontinuation of antiviral prophylaxis in the prevention of late-onset cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in a cohort of kidney transplant recipients. METHODS.: Patients undergoing kidney transplantation at the University Hospital of Lausanne (CHUV) between November 2003 and November 2007 were included if they were donor or recipient (D/R) seropositive for CMV. All patients received 3 months of prophylaxis with valganciclovir, followed by monitoring of CMV DNAemia by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) every 15 days during 3 additional months. Valganciclovir was restarted if CMV PCR was more than or equal to 10,000 copies/mL. The primary endpoint of the study was the incidence of late-onset CMV disease. RESULTS.: Eighty-six kidney transplant recipients were included; 30 patients were D+/R- and 56 patients were R+ for CMV. At 6 months posttransplant, CMV DNAemia had occurred in 31 of 86 (36%) patients: 13 of 30 (43%) in the D+/R- group and 18 of 56 (32%) in the R+ group (P=0.35). In the D+/R- group, among the 13 patients with CMV DNAemia, 7 (54%) patients developed late-onset CMV disease, simultaneously to the first positive viral load (n=5) or after detection of low-grade viremia (n=2). Only two patients received a preemptive treatment. In the R+ group, all positive PCR results were below the established cutoff. Thus, these 18 patients were not treated, and none of them developed late-onset CMV disease (R+ vs. D+/R-: P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS.: Within the limitations of a noncontrolled study, our data indicate that a preemptive strategy after 3 months of valganciclovir prophylaxis for CMV is not useful in R+ kidney transplant recipients. In D+/R- patients, this approach should be further evaluated.

Optimisation of a quantitative polymerase chain reaction-based strategy for the detection and quantification of human herpesvirus 6 DNA in patients undergoing allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) may cause severe complications after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Monitoring this virus and providing precise, rapid and early diagnosis of related clinical diseases, constitute essential measures to improve outcomes. A prospective survey on the incidence and clinical features of HHV-6 infections after HSCT has not yet been conducted in Brazilian patients and the impact of this infection on HSCT outcome remains unclear. A rapid test based on real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has been optimised to screen and quantify clinical samples for HHV-6. The detection step was based on reaction with TaqMan® hydrolysis probes. A set of previously described primers and probes have been tested to evaluate efficiency, sensitivity and reproducibility. The target efficiency range was 91.4% with linearity ranging from 10-106 copies/reaction and a limit of detection of five copies/reaction or 250 copies/mL of plasma. The qPCR assay developed in the present study was simple, rapid and sensitive, allowing the detection of a wide range of HHV-6 loads. In conclusion, this test may be useful as a practical tool to help elucidate the clinical relevance of HHV-6 infection and reactivation in different scenarios and to determine the need for surveillance.

China’s Strategy in North Africa: New economic challenges for the Mediterranean region

El WP té com a objectiu examinar per què els països del nord d'Àfrica estan augmentant les seves importacions de Xina i per què la Xina està augmentant les seves inversions estrangeres directes a la zona. la avantatges per als països del nord d'Àfrica es troben en els actuals acords de lliure comerç, el absència de barreres aranzelàries i la seva ubicació geogràfica summament beneficiosa com Hub de la Mediterrània. El paper de la Unió per la Mediterrània és clau per identificar aspectes de la política regional, tenint en compte la participació xinesa a la zona. com conseqüència, concloem que els actors polítics han de trobar un equilibri entre sostenible desenvolupament i els interessos econòmics de la regió.

A Sustainable Development Strategy for the Pyrenees-Mediterranean Euroregion: Basic Guidelines

L'estudi presenta té per objecte formular els requisits necessaris per posar en marxa una estratègia per al desenvolupament sostenible de l'Euroregió Pirineus-Mediterrània. Aquest és un projecte de cooperació transfronterera regional promogut per l'expresident de la Generalitat, Honorable Sr Pasqual Maragall, que, a més de Catalunya, inclou Aragó, Illes Balears, Llenguadoc-Rosselló i Migdia-Pirineus. A la Unió Europea hi ha més de 70 euroregions, que han estat en funcionant per diferents periodes de temps, després d'haver estat creat per regions o entitats locals, o ambdós

Investment, duration, and exit strategies for corporate and independent venture capital-backed start-ups

We propose a model of investment, duration, and exit strategies for start-ups backed by venture capital (VC) funds that accounts for the high level of uncertainty, the asymmetry of information between insiders and outsiders, and the discount rate. Our analysis predicts that start-ups backed by corporate VC funds remain for a longer period of time before exiting and receive larger investment amounts than those financed by independent VC funds. Although a longer duration leads to a higher likelihood of an exit through an acquisition, a larger investment increases the probability of an IPO exit. These predictions find strong empirical support.

Electoral competition through issue selection

Politics must tackle multiple issues at once. In a first-best world, political competition constrains parties to prioritize issues according to the voters' true concerns. In the real world, the opposite also happens: parties manipulate voter priorities by emphasizing issues selectively during the political campaign. This phenomenon, known as priming, should allow parties to pay less attention to the issues that they intend to mute. We develop a model of endogenous issue ownership in which two vote-seeking parties (i) invest to attract voters with "better" policy proposals and (ii) choose a communication campaign to focus voter attention on specific issues. We identify novel feedbacks between communication and investment. In particular, we find that stronger priming effects can backfire by constraining parties to invest more resources in all issues, including the ones they would otherwise intend to mute. We also identify under which conditions parties prefer to focus on their "historical issues" or to engage in issue stealing. Typically, the latter happens when priming effects are strong, and historical reputations differentiates parties less.