The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

Noise in detection of qubit states using a quantum point contact

We present a model for detection of the states of a coupled quantum dots (qubit) by a quantum point contact. Most proposals for measurements of states of quantum systems are idealized. However in a real laboratory the measurements cannot be perfect due to practical devices and circuits. The models using ideal devices are not sufficient for describing the detection information of the states of the quantum systems. Our model therefore includes the extension to a non-ideal measurement device case using an equivalent circuit. We derive a quantum trajectory that describes the stochastic evolution of the state of the system of the qubit and the measuring device. We calculate the noise power spectrum of tunnelling events in an ideal and a non-ideal quantum point contact measurement respectively. We found that, for the strong coupling case it is difficult to obtain information of the quantum processes in the qubit by measurements using a non-ideal quantum point contact. The noise spectra can also be used to estimate the limits of applicability of the ideal model.

Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Strain distributionand electronic property modifications in Si/Ge axial nanowires hetrostructures

Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out for Si/Ge axial nanowire heterostructures using modified effective atom method (MEAM) potentials. A Si–Ge MEAM interatomic cross potential was developed based on available experimental data and was used for these studies. The atomic distortions and strain distributions near the Si/Ge interfaces are predicted for nanowires with their axes oriented along the [111] direction. The cases of 10 and 25 nm diameter Si/Ge biwires and of 25 nm diameter Si/Ge/Si axial heterostructures with the Ge disk 1 nm thick were studied. Substantial distortions in the height of the atoms adjacent to the interface were found for the biwires but not for the Ge disks. Strains as high as 3.5% were found for the Ge disk and values of 2%–2.5% were found at the Si and Ge interfacial layers in the biwires. Deformation potential theory was used to estimate the influence of the strains on the band gap, and reductions in band gap to as small as 40% of bulk values are predicted for the Ge disks. The localized regions of increased strain and resulting energy minima were also found within the Si/Ge biwire interfaces with the larger effects on the Ge side of the interface. The regions of strain maxima near and within the interfaces are anticipated to be useful for tailoring band gaps and producing quantum confinement of carriers. These results suggest that nanowire heterostructures provide greater design flexibility in band structure modification than is possible with planar layer growth.

Surface acoustic wave devices with low loss and high frequency operation

This thesis describes an industrial research project carried out in collaboration with STC Components, Harlow, Essex. Technical and market trends in the use of surface acoustic wave (SAW) devices are reviewed. As a result, three areas not previously addressed by STC were identified: lower insertion loss designs, higher operating frequencies and improved temperature dependent stability. A review of the temperature performance of alternative lower insertion loss designs,shows that greater use could be made of the on-site quartz growing plant. Data is presented for quartz cuts in the ST-AT range. This data is used to modify the temperature performance of a SAW filter. Several recently identified quartz orientations have been tested. These are SST, LST and X33. Problems associated with each cut are described and devices demonstrated. LST quartz, although sensitive to accuracy of cut, is shown to have an improved temperature coefficient over the normal ST orientation. Results show that its use is restricted due to insertion loss variations with temperature. Effects associated with split-finger transducers on LST-quartz are described. Two low-loss options are studied, coupled resonator filters for very narrow bandwidth applications and single phase unidirectional transducers (SPUDT) for fractional bandwidths up to about 1%. Both designs can be implemented with one quarter wavelength transducer geometries at operating frequencies up to 1GHz. The SPUDT design utilised an existing impulse response model to provide analysis of ladder or rung transducers. A coupled resonator filter at 400MHz is demonstrated with a matched insertion loss of less than 3.5dB and bandwidth of 0.05%. A SPUDT device is designed as a re-timing filter for timing extraction in a long haul PCM transmission system. Filters operating at 565MHz are demonstrated with insertion losses of less than 6dB. This basic SPUDT design is extended to a maximally distributed version and demonstrated at 450MHz with 9.8dB insertion loss.

21-residue peptide's dynamics at and between elementary structural transitions

Elementary conformational changes of the backbone of a 21-residue peptide A5(A3RA)3A are studied using molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water. The processes of the conformational transitions and the regimes of stationary fluctuations between them are investigated using minimal perturbations of the system. The perturbations consist of a few degrees rotation of the velocity of one of the systems' atoms and keep the system on the same energy surface. It is found that (i) the system dynamics is insignificantly changed by the perturbations in the regimes between the transitions; (ii) it is very sensitive to the perturbations just before the transitions that prevents the peptide from making the transitions; and (iii) the perturbation of any atom of the system, including distant water molecules is equally effective in preventing the transition. The latter implies strongly collective dynamics of the peptide and water during the transitions.

Why are MD simulated protein folding times wrong?

The question of significant deviations of protein folding times simulated using molecular dynamics from experimental values is investigated. It is shown that in the framework of Markov State Model (MSM) describing the conformational dynamics of peptides and proteins, the folding time is very sensitive to the simulation model parameters, such as forcefield and temperature. Using two peptides as examples, we show that the deviations in the folding times can reach an order of magnitude for modest variations of the molecular model. We, therefore, conclude that the folding rate values obtained in molecular dynamics simulations have to be treated with care.

Atomic structure of the two intermediate phase glasses SiSe4 and GeSe4

The microscopic origin of the intermediate phase in two prototypical covalently bonded AxB1-x network glass forming systems, where A=Ge or Si, B=Se, and 0=x=1, was investigated by combining neutron diffraction with first-principles molecular-dynamics methods. Specifically, the structure of glassy GeSe4 and SiSe4 was examined, and the calculated total structure factor and total pair-correlation function for both materials are in good agreement with experiment. The structure of both glasses differs markedly from a simple model comprising undefective AB4 corner-sharing tetrahedra in which all A atoms are linked by B2 dimers. Instead, edge-sharing tetrahedra occur and the twofold coordinated Se atoms form three distinct structural motifs, namely, Se-Se2, Se-SeGe (or Se-SeSi), and Se-Ge2 (or Se-Si2). This identifies several of the conformations that are responsible for the structural variability in GexSe1-x and SixSe1-x glasses, a quantity that is linked to the finite width of the intermediate phase window.

A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children

This paper describes the development of a tree-based decision model to predict the severity of pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department (ED) at 2 h following triage. The model was constructed from retrospective patient data abstracted from the ED charts. The original data was preprocessed to eliminate questionable patient records and to normalize values of age-dependent clinical attributes. The model uses attributes routinely collected in the ED and provides predictions even for incomplete observations. Its performance was verified on independent validating data (split-sample validation) where it demonstrated AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.83, sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 71% and the Brier score of 0.18. The model is intended to supplement an asthma clinical practice guideline, however, it can be also used as a stand-alone decision tool.

Ion interactions with the carbon nanotube surface in aqueous solutions:understanding the molecular mechanisms

We study the molecular mechanisms of alkali halide ion interactions with the single-wall carbon nanotube surface in water by means of fully atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. We focus on the basic physical-chemical principles of ion–nanotube interactions in aqueous solutions and discuss them in light of recent experimental findings on selective ion effects on carbon nanotubes.

Water-peptide dynamics during conformational transitions

Transitions between metastable conformations of a dipeptide are investigated using classical molecular dynamics simulation with explicit water molecules. The distribution of the surrounding water at different moments before the transitions and the dynamical correlations of water with the peptide's configurational motions indicate that the water molecules represent an integral part of the molecular system during the conformational changes, in contrast to the metastable periods when water and peptide dynamics are essentially decoupled.

The antimicrobial action of pseudin-2

The amphibian antimicrobial peptide pseudin-2 is a peptide derived from the skin of the South-American frog Pseudis paradoxa (Olson et al., 2001). This peptide possesses tremendous potential as a therapeutic lead since it has been shown to possess both antimicrobial as well insulin-releasing properties (Olson et al., 2001; Abdel-Wahab et al., 2008). This study aimed to develop pseudin-2’s potential by understanding and improving its properties as an antimicrobial agent. The structure-function relationships of pseudin-2 were explored using a combination of in-vitro and in-silico techniques, with an aim to predict how the structure of the peptide may be altered in order to improve its efficacy. A library of pseudin-2 mutants was generated by randomizing codons at positions 10, 14 and 18 of a synthetic gene, using NNK saturation mutagenesis. Analysis of these novel peptides broadly confirmed, in line with literature precedent, that anti-microbial activity increases with increased positive charge. Specifically, 2 positively-charged residues at positions 10 and 14 and a hydrophobic at position 18 are preferred. However, substitution at position 14 with some polar, non-charged residues also created peptides with antimicrobial activity. Interestingly, the pseudin-2 analogue [10-E, 14-Q, 18-L] which is identical to pseudin-2, except that the residues at positions 10 and 14 are switched, showed no anti-microbial activity at all. Molecular dynamics simulations of pseudin-2 showed that the peptide possesses two equilibrium structures in a membrane environment: a linear and a kinked a-helix which both embed into the membrane at an angle. Biophysical characterization using circular dichroism spectroscopy confirmed that the peptide is helical within the membrane environment whilst linear dichroism established that the peptide has no defined orientation within the membrane. Collectively, these data indicate that Pseudin-2 exerts its antimicrobial activity via the carpet model.

Complexity and chirality indices for molecular informatics::differential geometry approach

Novel molecular complexity measures are designed based on the quantum molecular kinematics. The Hamiltonian matrix constructed in a quasi-topological approximation describes the temporal evolution of the modelled electronic system and determined the time derivatives for the dynamic quantities. This allows to define the average quantum kinematic characteristics closely related to the curvatures of the electron paths, particularly, the torsion reflecting the chirality of the dynamic system. A special attention has been given to the computational scheme for this chirality measure. The calculations on realistic molecular systems demonstrate reasonable behaviour of the proposed molecular complexity indices.

Dynamic complexity of chaotic transitions in high-dimensional classical dynamics:Leu-Enkephalin folding

Leu-Enkephalin in explicit water is simulated using classical molecular dynamics. A ß-turn transition is investigated by calculating the topological complexity (in the "computational mechanics" framework [J. P. Crutchfield and K. Young, Phys. Rev. Lett., 63, 105 (1989)]) of the dynamics of both the peptide and the neighbouring water molecules. The complexity of the atomic trajectories of the (relatively short) simulations used in this study reflect the degree of phase space mixing in the system. It is demonstrated that the dynamic complexity of the hydrogen atoms of the peptide and almost all of the hydrogens of the neighbouring waters exhibit a minimum precisely at the moment of the ß-turn transition. This indicates the appearance of simplified periodic patterns in the atomic motion, which could correspond to high-dimensional tori in the phase space. It is hypothesized that this behaviour is the manifestation of the effect described in the approach to molecular transitions by Komatsuzaki and Berry [T. Komatsuzaki and R.S. Berry, Adv. Chem. Phys., 123, 79 (2002)], where a "quasi-regular" dynamics at the transition is suggested. Therefore, for the first time, the less chaotic character of the folding transition in a realistic molecular system is demonstrated. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.

Molecular mechanisms of salt effects on carbon nanotube dispersions in an organic solvent (N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone)

We consider the effects of salt (sodium iodide) on pristine carbon nanotube (CNT) dispersions in an organic solvent, N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP). We investigate the molecular-scale mechanisms of ion interactions with the nanotube surface and we show how the microscopic ion-surface interactions affect the stability of CNT dispersions in NMP. In our study we use a combination of fully atomistic Molecular Dynamics simulations of sodium and iodide ions at the CNT-NMP interface with direct experiments on the CNT dispersions. In the experiments we analyze the effects of salt on the stability of the dispersions by photoluminescence (PL) and optical absorption spectroscopy of the samples as well as by visual inspection. By fully atomistic Molecular Dynamics simulations we investigate the molecular-scale mechanisms of sodium and iodide ion interactions with the nanotube surface. Our simulations reveal that both ions are depleted from the CNT surface in the CNT-NMP dispersions mainly due to the two reasons: (1) there is a high energy penalty for the ion partial desolvation at the CNT surface; (2) NMP molecules form a dense solvation layer at the CNT surface that prevents ions to come close to the CNT surface. As a result, an increase of the salt concentration increases the "osmotic" stress in the CNT-NMP system and, thus, decreases the stability of the CNT dispersions in NMP. Direct experiments confirm the simulation results: addition of NaI salt into the NMP dispersions of pristine CNTs leads to precipitation of CNTs (bundle formation) even at very small salt concentration (∼10 -3 mol L -1). In line with the simulation predictions, the effect increases with the increase of the salt concentration. Overall, our results show that dissolved salt ions have strong effects on the stability of CNT dispersions. Therefore, it is possible to stimulate the bundle formation in the CNT-NMP dispersions and regulate the overall concentration of nanotubes in the dispersions by changing the NaI concentration in the solvent. © 2012 The Royal Society of Chemistry.