927 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency


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The schistosomal parasite plays a critical role in the development of malignant lesions in different organs. The pathogenesis of cancer is currently under intense investigation to identify reliable prognostic indices for disease detection. The objective of this paper is to evaluate certain biochemical parameters as diagnostic tools to efficiently differentiate between colonic carcinoma and colonic carcinoma associated with schistosomal infection among Egyptian patients. The parameters under investigation are interleukin 2 (IL-2), tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, tissue telomerase, pyruvate kinase (PK), glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G-6-PD) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) enzyme activities. The results revealed a significant elevation in the level of the tumour markers IL-2, TNF-α and CEA as well as the activities of LDH, telomerase and G-6-PD among non-bilharzial and bilharzial colonic cancer groups, with a more potent effect in bilharzial infection-associated colonic cancer. A significant inhibition in PK activity was recorded in the same manner as compared to normal tissues. The efficacy of this biomarker was also evaluated through detecting sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values. In conclusion, schistosomal colonic carcinoma patients displayed more drastic changes in all parameters under investigation. The combination of the selected parameters succeeded in serving as biomarkers to differentiate between the two malignant types.

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The goal of our study is to assess the diagnostic profi tability of procalcitonin (PCT) in septic shock and another biomarker as C-reactive protein (CRP). Results: Fifty-four septic patients were assessed, 66% were males; mean age, 63 years. Eighty-eight percent was diagnosed as septic shock and 11% severe sepsis. Seventy-six percent were medical patients. Positive blood cultures in 42.5%. Sepsis origin: respiratory 46%, neurological 5%, digestive 37% and urinary 3%. Average SOFA score was 10.4. Conclusions: PCT and CRP have the same efficiency in early sepsis diagnosis. The PCT and CRP effi ciency diagnostic together is signifi cant but small. We suggest using both with the doubt of sepsis.

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Nerve biopsy examination is an important auxiliary procedure for diagnosing pure neural leprosy (PNL). When acid-fast bacilli (AFB) are not detected in the nerve sample, the value of other nonspecific histological alterations should be considered along with pertinent clinical, electroneuromyographical and laboratory data (the detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA with polymerase chain reaction and the detection of serum anti-phenolic glycolipid 1 antibodies) to support a possible or probable PNL diagnosis. Three hundred forty nerve samples [144 from PNL patients and 196 from patients with non-leprosy peripheral neuropathies (NLN)] were examined. Both AFB-negative and AFB-positive PNL samples had more frequent histopathological alterations (epithelioid granulomas, mononuclear infiltrates, fibrosis, perineurial and subperineurial oedema and decreased numbers of myelinated fibres) than the NLN group. Multivariate analysis revealed that independently, mononuclear infiltrate and perineurial fibrosis were more common in the PNL group and were able to correctly classify AFB-negative PNL samples. These results indicate that even in the absence of AFB, these histopathological nerve alterations may justify a PNL diagnosis when observed in conjunction with pertinent clinical, epidemiological and laboratory data.

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The presence of enteric viruses in biosolids can be underestimated due to the inefficient methods (mainly molecular methods) used to recover the viruses from these matrices. Therefore, the goal of this study was to evaluate the different methods used to recover adenoviruses (AdV), rotavirus species A (RVA), norovirus genogroup II (NoV GII) and the hepatitis A virus (HAV) from biosolid samples at a large urban wastewater treatment plant in Brazil after they had been treated by mesophilic anaerobic digestion. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used for spiking experiments to compare the detection limits of feasible methods, such as beef extract elution and ultracentrifugation. Tests were performed to detect the inhibition levels and the bacteriophage PP7 was used as an internal control. The results showed that the inhibitors affected the efficiency of the PCR reaction and that beef extract elution is a suitable method for detecting enteric viruses, mainly AdV from biosolid samples. All of the viral groups were detected in the biosolid samples: AdV (90%), RVA, NoV GII (45%) and HAV (18%), indicating the viruses' resistance to the anaerobic treatment process. This is the first study in Brazil to detect the presence of RVA, AdV, NoV GII and HAV in anaerobically digested sludge, highlighting the importance of adequate waste management.

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One of the major problems when using non-dedicated volunteer resources in adistributed network is the high volatility of these hosts since they can go offlineor become unavailable at any time without control. Furthermore, the use ofvolunteer resources implies some security issues due to the fact that they aregenerally anonymous entities which we know nothing about. So, how to trustin someone we do not know?.Over the last years an important number of reputation-based trust solutionshave been designed to evaluate the participants' behavior in a system.However, most of these solutions are addressed to P2P and ad-hoc mobilenetworks that may not fit well with other kinds of distributed systems thatcould take advantage of volunteer resources as recent cloud computinginfrastructures.In this paper we propose a first approach to design an anonymous reputationmechanism for CoDeS [1], a middleware for building fogs where deployingservices using volunteer resources. The participants are reputation clients(RC), a reputation authority (RA) and a certification authority (CA). Users needa valid public key certificate from the CA to register to the RA and obtain thedata needed to participate into the system, as now an opaque identifier thatwe call here pseudonym and an initial reputation value that users provide toother users when interacting together. The mechanism prevents not only themanipulation of the provided reputation values but also any disclosure of theusers' identities to any other users or authorities so the anonymity isguaranteed.

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The public primary school system in the State of Geneva, Switzerland, is characterized by centrally evaluated pupil performance measured with the use of standardized tests. As a result, consistent data are collected among the system. The 2010-2011 dataset is used to develop a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) of school efficiency. In the first stage, DEA is employed to calculate an individual efficiency score for each school. It shows that, on average, each school could reduce its inputs by 7% whilst maintaining the same quality of pupil performance. The cause of inefficiency lies in perfectible management. In the second stage, efficiency is regressed on school characteristics and environmental variables;external factors outside of the control of headteachers. The model is tested for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. Four variables are identified as statistically significant. School efficiency is negatively influenced by (1) the provision of special education, (2) the proportion of disadvantaged pupils enrolled at the school and (3) operations being held on multiple sites, but positively influenced by school size (captured by the number of pupils). The proportion of allophone pupils; schools located in urban areas and the provision of reception classes for immigrant pupils are not significant. Although the significant variables influencing school efficiency are outside of the control of headteachers, it is still possible to either boost the positive impact or curb the negative impact. Dans le canton de Genève (Suisse), les écoles publiques primaires sont caractérisées par un financement assuré par les collectivités publiques (canton et communes) et par une évaluation des élèves à l'aide d'épreuves standardisées à trois moments distincts de leur scolarité. Cela permet de réunir des informations statistiques consistantes. La base de données de l'année 2010-2011 est utilisée dans une analyse en deux étapes de l'efficience des écoles. Dans une première étape, la méthode d'analyse des données par enveloppement (DEA) est utilisée pour calculer un score d'efficience pour chaque école. Cette analyse démontre que l'efficience moyenne des écoles s'élève à 93%. Chaque école pourrait, en moyenne, réduire ses ressources de 7% tout en conservant constants les résultats des élèves aux épreuves standardisées. La source de l'inefficience réside dans un management des écoles perfectible. Dans une seconde étape, les scores d'efficience sont régressés sur les caractéristiques des écoles et sur des variables environnementales. Ces variables ne sont pas sous le contrôle (ou l'influence) des directeurs d'école. Le modèle est testé pour la multicolinéartié, l'hétéroscédasticité et l'endogénéité. Quatre variables sont statistiquement significatives. L'efficience des écoles est influencée négativement par (1) le fait d'offrir un enseignement spécialisé en classe séparée, (2) la proporition d'élèves défavorisés et (3) le fait d'opérer sur plusieurs sites différents. L'efficience des écoles est influencée positivement par la taille de l'école, mesurée par le nombre d'élèves. La proporition d'élèves allophones, le fait d'être situé dans une zone urbaine et d'offrir des classes d'accueil pour les élèves immigrants constituent autant de variables non significatives. Le fait que les variables qui influencent l'efficience des écoles ne soient pas sous le contrôle des directeurs ne signifie pas qu'il faille céder au fatalisme. Différentes pistes sont proposées pour permettre soit de réduire l'impact négatif soit de tirer parti de l'impact positif des variables significatives.

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Gumbel analyses were carried out on rainfall time-series at 151 locations in Switzerland for 4 different periods of 30 years in order to estimate daily extreme precipitation for a return period of 100 years. Those estimations were compared with maximal daily values measured during the last 100 years (1911-2010) to test the efficiency of these analyses. This comparison shows that these analyses provide good results for 50 to 60% locations in this country from rainfall time-series 1961-1990 and 1980-2010. On the other hand, daily precipitation with a return period of 100 years is underestimated at most locations from time-series 1931-1960 and especially 1911-1940. Such underestimation results from the increase of maximal daily precipitation recorded from 1911 to 2010 at 90% locations in Switzerland.

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This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

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This paper analyzes the optimal behavior of farmers in the presence of direct payments and uncertainty. In an empirical analysis for Switzerland, it confirms previously obtained theoretical results and determines the magnitude of the theoretical predicted effects. The results show that direct payments increase agricultural production between 3.7% to 4.8%. Alternatively to direct payments, the production effect of tax reductions is evaluated in order to determine its magnitude. The empirical analysis corroborates the theoretical results of the literature and demonstrates that tax reductions are also distorting, but to a substantially lesser degree if losses are not offset. However, tax reductions, independently whether losses are offset or not, lead to higher government spending than pure direct payments

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Using H-2Kd-restricted CTL clones, which are specific for a photoreactive derivative of the Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite peptide PbCS(252-260) (SYIPSAEKI) and permit assessment of TCR-ligand interactions by TCR photoaffinity labeling, we have previously identified several peptide derivative variants for which TCR-ligand binding and the efficiency of Ag recognition deviated by fivefold or more. Here we report that the functional CTL response (cytotoxicity and IFN-gamma production) correlated with the rate of TCR-ligand complex dissociation, but not the avidity of TCR-ligand binding. While peptide antagonists exhibited very rapid TCR-ligand complex dissociation, slightly slower dissociation was observed for strong agonists. Conversely and surprisingly, weak agonists typically displayed slower dissociation than the wild-type agonists. Acceleration of TCR-ligand complex dissociation by blocking CD8 participation in TCR-ligand binding increased the efficiency of Ag recognition in cases where dissociation was slow. In addition, permanent TCR engagement by TCR-ligand photocross-linking completely abolished sustained intracellular calcium mobilization, which is required for T cell activation. These results indicate that the functional CTL response depends on the frequency of serial TCR engagement, which, in turn, is determined by the rate of TCR-ligand complex dissociation.

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Aim: The psychoanalytic theories of Bion, Anzieu, Berger and Gibello postulate that the development of thinking depends upon the formation of a psychic space. This thinking space has its origin in the body and in our interpersonal relations. This study aims to validate this psychodynamic hypothesis. Method: A group of 8- to 14-year-old children participated in this research. The presence of a thinking space was operationalized by the "barrier" and "penetration" scores on the Rorschach's Fisher and Cleveland scales and intellectual efficiency was measured using a short version of the WISC-IV. Results: Results show that extreme scores on the "barrier" and "penetration" variables predict a lower intellectual level than average scores on the same variables. Conclusion: The development of thinking and personality are undoubtedly linked and the "barrier" and "penetration" variables are useful measures when evaluating the development of a space for thought.

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This paper analyzes the implications of pre-trade transpareny on market performance. We find that transparency increases the precision held by agents, however we show that this increase in precision may not be due to prices themselves. In competitive markets, transparency increases market liquidity and reduces price volatility, whereas these results may not hold under imperfect competition. More importantly, market depth and volatility might be positively related with proper priors. Moreover, we study the incentives for liquidity traders to engage in sunshine trading. We obtain that the choice of sunshine/dark trading for a noise trader is independent of his order size, being the traders with higher liquidity needs more interested in sunshine trading, as long as this practice is desirable. Key words: Market Microstructure, Transparency, Prior Information, Market Quality, Sunshine Trading

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This paper analyzes how ownership concentration and managerial incentives influences bank risk for a large sample of US banks over the period 1997-2007. Using 2SLS simultaneous equations models, we show that ownership concentration has a positive total effect on bank risk. This is the result of a positive direct effect, which reflects monitoring and opportunistic behavior, and a negative indirect effect, which works through the design of managerial incentive contracts and reflects shareholder preferences toward risk. Large shareholders reduce bank risk by reducing the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock volatility (Vega) and by increasing the CEO pay-performance sensitivity (Delta). In addition, we show that the direct and indirect effect of ownership concentration on bank risk depends on the type of the largest shareholder (a family, a bank, a corporation or an institutional investor), as well as, on the total shareholding held by each type as a group. Our results suggest that the positive relation between ownership concentration and risk is not the result of preferences towards more risk. Rather, they point at opportunistic behavior of large shareholders.