Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

The determinants of business performance of estate agency in England and Wales

Purpose: This paper seeks to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agency in England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach: The paper investigates the effect of housing market, company size and pricing policy on business performance in the estate agency sector in England and Wales. The analysis uses the survey data of Woolwich Cost of Moving Survey (a survey of transactions costs sponsored by the Woolwich/Barclays Bank) from 2003 to 2005 to test the hypothesis that the business performance of estate agency is affected by industry characteristics and firm factors. Findings: The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of estate agency is subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainty, housing market liquidity and house price changes. The firm factors such as firm size and the level of agency fee have no explanatory power in explaining business performance. The level of agency fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to the data received and is based on a research project on transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the factors determining the business performance of estate agency, using consecutive data of three years across England and Wales. The findings are useful for practitioners and/or managers to allocate resources and adjust their business strategy to enhance business performance in the estate agency sector.

Nitrogen cycle feedbacks as a control on euxinia in the mid-Proterozoic ocean

Geochemical evidence invokes anoxic deep oceans until the terminal Neoproterozoic similar to 0.55 Ma, despite oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere nearly 2 Gyr earlier. Marine sediments from the intervening period suggest predominantly ferruginous (anoxic Fe(II)-rich) waters, interspersed with euxinia (anoxic H2S-rich conditions) along productive continental margins. Today, sustained biotic H2S production requires NO3- depletion because denitrifiers outcompete sulphate reducers. Thus, euxinia is rare, only occurring concurrently with (steady state) organic carbon availability when N-2-fixers dominate the production in the photic zone. Here we use a simple box model of a generic Proterozoic coastal upwelling zone to show how these feedbacks caused the mid-Proterozoic ocean to exhibit a spatial/temporal separation between two states: photic zone NO3- with denitrification in lower anoxic waters, and N-2-fixation- driven production overlying euxinia. Interchange between these states likely explains the varying H2S concentration implied by existing data, which persisted until the Neoproterozoic oxygenation event gave rise to modern marine biogeochemistry.

The influence of ocean acidification on nitrogen regeneration and nitrous oxide production in the North-West European shelf sea

The assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the concentration of N2O, was investigated at stations located in the NW European shelf sea during June/July 2011. These observational measurements within the photic zone demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of NH4+, NO2− and NO3−. NH4+ was assimilated at 1.82–49.12 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 3.46–14.60 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO2− was assimilated at 0–2.08 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.01–1.85 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO3− was assimilated at 0.67–18.75 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.05–28.97 nmol N L−1 h−1. Observations implied that these processes were closely coupled at the regional scale and nitrogen recycling played an important role in sustaining phytoplankton growth during the summer. The [N2O], measured in water column profiles, was 10.13 ± 1.11 nmol L−1 and did not strongly diverge from atmospheric equilibrium indicating that sampled marine regions where neither a strong source nor sink of N2O to the atmosphere. Multivariate analysis of data describing water column biogeochemistry and its links to N-cycling activity failed to explain the observed variance in rates of N-regeneration and N-assimilation, possibly due to the limited number of process rate observations. In the surface waters of 5 further stations, Ocean Acidification (OA) bioassay experiments were conducted to investigate the response of NH4+ oxidising and regenerating organisms to simulated OA conditions, including the implications for [N2O]. Multivariate analysis was undertaken which considered the complete bioassay dataset of measured variables describing changes in N-regeneration rate, [N2O] and the biogeochemical composition of seawater. While anticipating biogeochemical differences between locations, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the underlying mechanism through which pelagic N-regeneration responded to simulated OA conditions was independent of location and that a mechanistic understanding of how NH4+ oxidation, NH4+ regeneration and N2O production responded to OA could be developed. Results indicated that N-regeneration process responses to OA treatments were location specific; no mechanistic understanding of how N-regeneration processes respond to OA in the surface ocean of the NW European shelf sea could be developed.

The influence of ocean acidification on nitrogen regeneration and nitrous oxide production in the North-West European shelf sea

The assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the concentration of N2O, was investigated at stations located in the NW European shelf sea during June/July 2011. These observational measurements within the photic zone demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of NH4+, NO2− and NO3−. NH4+ was assimilated at 1.82–49.12 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 3.46–14.60 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO2− was assimilated at 0–2.08 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.01–1.85 nmol N L−1 h−1; NO3− was assimilated at 0.67–18.75 nmol N L−1 h−1 and regenerated at 0.05–28.97 nmol N L−1 h−1. Observations implied that these processes were closely coupled at the regional scale and nitrogen recycling played an important role in sustaining phytoplankton growth during the summer. The [N2O], measured in water column profiles, was 10.13 ± 1.11 nmol L−1 and did not strongly diverge from atmospheric equilibrium indicating that sampled marine regions where neither a strong source nor sink of N2O to the atmosphere. Multivariate analysis of data describing water column biogeochemistry and its links to N-cycling activity failed to explain the observed variance in rates of N-regeneration and N-assimilation, possibly due to the limited number of process rate observations. In the surface waters of 5 further stations, Ocean Acidification (OA) bioassay experiments were conducted to investigate the response of NH4+ oxidising and regenerating organisms to simulated OA conditions, including the implications for [N2O]. Multivariate analysis was undertaken which considered the complete bioassay dataset of measured variables describing changes in N-regeneration rate, [N2O] and the biogeochemical composition of seawater. While anticipating biogeochemical differences between locations, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the underlying mechanism through which pelagic N-regeneration responded to simulated OA conditions was independent of location and that a mechanistic understanding of how NH4+ oxidation, NH4+ regeneration and N2O production responded to OA could be developed. Results indicated that N-regeneration process responses to OA treatments were location specific; no mechanistic understanding of how N-regeneration processes respond to OA in the surface ocean of the NW European shelf sea could be developed.

The influence of ocean acidification on nitrogen regeneration and nitrous oxide production in the northwest European shelf sea

The assimilation and regeneration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and the concentration of N₂O, was investigated at stations located in the NW European shelf sea during June/July 2011. These observational measurements within the photic zone demonstrated the simultaneous regeneration and assimilation of NH₄⁺, NO₂⁻ and NO₃⁻. NH₄⁺ was assimilated at 1.82–49.12 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹ and regenerated at 3.46–14.60 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹; NO₂^- was assimilated at 0–2.08 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹ and regenerated at 0.01–1.85 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹; NO₃⁻ was assimilated at 0.67–18.75 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹ and regenerated at 0.05–28.97 nmol N L⁻¹ h⁻¹. Observations implied that these processes were closely coupled at the regional scale and that nitrogen recycling played an important role in sustaining phytoplankton growth during the summer. The [N₂O], measured in water column profiles, was 10.13 ± 1.11 nmol L⁻¹ and did not strongly diverge from atmospheric equilibrium indicating that sampled marine regions were neither a strong source nor sink of N₂O to the atmosphere. Multivariate analysis of data describing water column biogeochemistry and its links to N-cycling activity failed to explain the observed variance in rates of N-regeneration and N-assimilation, possibly due to the limited number of process rate observations. In the surface waters of five further stations, ocean acidification (OA) bioassay experiments were conducted to investigate the response of NH₄⁺ oxidising and regenerating organisms to simulated OA conditions, including the implications for [N₂O]. Multivariate analysis was undertaken which considered the complete bioassay data set of measured variables describing changes in N-regeneration rate, [N₂O] and the biogeochemical composition of seawater. While anticipating biogeochemical differences between locations, we aimed to test the hypothesis that the underlying mechanism through which pelagic N-regeneration responded to simulated OA conditions was independent of location. Our objective was to develop a mechanistic understanding of how NH₄⁺ regeneration, NH₄⁺ oxidation and N₂O production responded to OA. Results indicated that N-regeneration process responses to OA treatments were location specific; no mechanistic understanding of how N-regeneration processes respond to OA in the surface ocean of the NW European shelf sea could be developed.

Southern Annular Mode and westerly-wind-driven changes in Indian-Atlantic exchange mechanisms

The dynamical link between the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains poorly understood. This partly arises from the complex Agulhas leakage, which occurs via rings, cyclones, and non-eddy flux. Hindcast simulations suggest that leakage has recently increased but have not decomposed this signal into its constituent mechanisms. Here these are isolated in a realistic ocean model. Increases in simulated leakage are attributed to stronger eddy and non-eddy-driven transports, and a strong warming and salinification, especially within Agulhas rings. Variability in both regimes is associated with strengthening Indian Ocean westerly winds, reflecting an increasingly positive Southern Annular Mode. While eddy and non-eddy flux signals are tied through turbulent eddy dissipation, the ratio between the two varies decadally. Consequently, while altimetry suggests a recent increase in retroflection turbulence and implied leakage, non-eddy flux may also play a significant role in modulating the leakage AMOC connection.

Run off Conditions on Rimming Power Law Fluids

The rimming ?ow of a power-law ?uid in the inner surface of a horizontal rotating cylinder is investigated. Exploiting the fact that the liquid layer is thin, the simplest lubrication theory is applied. The generalized run-off condition for the steady-state ?ow of the power-law liquid is derived. In the bounds implied by this condition, ?lm thickness admits a continuous solution. In the supercritical case when the mass of non-Newtonian liquid exceeds a certain value or the speed of rotation is less than an indicated limit, a discontinuous solution is possible and a hydraulic jump may occur in the steady-state regime. The location and height of the hydraulic jump for the power-law liquid is determined.

A species invasion mediated through habitat structure, intraguild predation and parasitism.

With field, laboratory, and modeling approaches, we examined the interplay among habitat structure, intraguild predation (IGP), and parasitism in an ongoing species invasion. Native Gammarus duebeni celticus (Crustacea: Amphipoda) are often, but not always, replaced by the invader Gammarus pulex through differential IGP. The muscle-wasting microsporidian parasite Pleistophora mulleri infects the native but not the invader. We found a highly variable prevalence of P. mulleri in uninvaded rivers, with 0–91% of hosts parasitized per sample. In addition, unparasitized natives dominated fast-flowing riffle patches of river, whereas parasitized individuals dominated slower- flowing, pooled patches. We examined the survivorship of invader and native in single and mixed-species microcosms with high, intermediate, and zero parasite prevalence. G. pulex survivorship was high in all treatments, whereas G. duebeni subsp. celticus survivorship was significantly lower in the presence of the invader. Further, parasitized G. duebeni subsp. celticus experienced near-total elimination. Models of the species replacement process implied that parasite-enhanced IGP would make invasion by G. pulex more likely, regardless of habitat and parasite spatial structure. However, where heterogeneity in parasite prevalence creates a landscape of patches with different susceptibilities to invasion, G. pulex may succeed in cases where invasion would not be possible if patches were equivalent. The different responses of parasitized and unparasitized G. duebeni subsp. celticus to environmental heterogeneity potentially link landscape patterns to the success or failure of the invasion process.

Caged birds and cloning machines: how student imagery 'speaks' to us about cultures of schooling and student participation

With the advent of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), there is an increasing requirement that schools ensure children and young people's views are voiced, listened to and taken seriously on matters of significance. Encouraging these shifts by law is one thing; changing the culture in schools is another. For a significant proportion of schools, actively engaging students' voices on how they experience education poses a significant challenge and crucial gaps may exist between the rhetoric espoused and a school's readiness for genuine student involvement. This ethnographic study illuminates tensions that persist between headteachers' espoused views of how students are valued and students' creative images of their actual post-primary schooling experience. If cultures of schooling are to nurture the true spirit of democratic pupil participation implied by changes in the law, there is a need to develop genuine processes of student engagement in which students and staff can collaborate towards greater shared understandings of a school's priorities.

A peculiar metal-rich star, HD 135485

Local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) absolute and differential abundances are presented for a peculiar metal-rich B-type star, HD 135485. These suggest that HD 135485 has a general enrichment of similar to0.5 dex in all the metals observed (C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, Ar, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe and Sr), except for nickel. The helium enhancement and hence hydrogen deficiency can account for less than or equal to 0.2 dex of this enhancement of metals, with the additional enhancement probably being representative of the progenitor gas. However, some of the metals appear to have greater enhancements, which may have occurred during the star's evolution. The significantly larger nitrogen abundance coupled with a modest helium enhancement observed in HD 135485 indicates that carbon- nitrogen (CN) processed material has possibly contaminated the stellar surface. Neon and carbon enhancements may indicate that helium core flashes have also occurred in HD 135485. Some of the iron-group elements (viz. Mn and Ni) appear to have similar abundance patterns to that of silicon Ap stars, but it is uncertain how these abundance patterns formed if they were not present in the progenitor gas. From a kinematical investigation it is unclear whether this star formed in a metal-rich region as implied by its chemical composition. From its position in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, HD 135485 would appear to be an evolved star lying close to or on the horizontal branch.

Ca II K observations of QSOs in the line-of-sight to the Magellanic Bridge

We describe medium-resolution spectroscopic observations taken with the ESO Multi-Mode Instrument (EMMI) in the CaII K line (lambda air = 3933.661 angstrom) towards 7 QSOs located in the line-of-sight to the Magellanic Bridge. At a spectral resolution R =lambda/Delta lambda = 6000, five of the sightlines have a signal-to-noise ( S/N) ratio of similar to 20 or higher. Definite Ca absorption due to Bridge material is detected towards 3 objects, with probable detection towards two other sightlines. Gas-phase CaII K Bridge and Milky Way abundances or lower limits for the all sightlines are estimated by the use of Parkes 21-cm H. emission line data. These data only have a spatial resolution of 14 arcmin compared with the optical observations which have milli-arcsecond resolution. With this caveat, for the three objects with sound CaII K detections, we find that the ionic abundance of CaII K relative to HI, A = log( N( CaK)/ N( HI)) for low- velocity Galactic gas ranges from - 8.3 to - 8.8 dex, with HI column densities varying from 3- 6 x 10(20) cm(-2). For Magellanic Bridge gas, the values of A are similar to 0.5 dex higher, ranging from similar to- 7.8 to - 8.2 dex, with N( HI) = 1- 5 x 1020 cm(-2). Higher values of A correspond to lower values of N( HI), although numbers are small. For the sightline towards B 0251 - 675, the Bridge gas has two different velocities, and in only one of these is CaII tentatively detected, perhaps indicating gas of a different origin or present-day characteristics ( such as dust content), although this conclusion is uncertain and there is the possibility that one of the components could be related to the Magellanic Stream. Higher signal-to-noise CaII K data and higher resolution H. data are required to determine whether A changes with N( HI) over the Bridge and if the implied difference in the metalicity of the two Bridge components towards B 0251-675 is real.

Less of a Puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for: (a) the low volatility of the forward discount; (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit; (c) the even higher volatility of the spot return; (d) the persistence in the forward discount; (e) the martingale behavior of spot exchange rates; and (f) the negative covariance between the expected spot return and expected forward speculative profit. It is unable to account for the forward market bias because the volatility of the expected spot return is too large relative to the volatility of the expected forward speculative profit.

Fixed versus Flexible: lessons from EMS order Flow

We extend the literature on regime-dependent volatility in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly fixed rates (EMS to EMU). In the model, shocks to order flow induce more volatility under flexible rates because the elasticity of speculative demand is (endogenously) low, leading to pronounced portfolio-balance effects. New data on FF/DM transactions show that order flow had persistent effects on the exchange rate before EMU parities were announced. After announcement, the FF/DM rate was decoupled from order flow, as the model predicts.

Unraveling EU Policies: the ““Common Basic Principles”” and the ““European Integration Fund”” as a technology of government

this paper is about EU “soft policies” on immigrant integration. It analyzes the “Common Basic Principles” (CBPs) and the “European Integration Fund” (EIF), two devices that have been recently established within this framework. It adopts the theoretical perspective of the “anthropology of policy” and “governmentality studies”. It shows the context of birth of the aforementioned devices, as well as their functioning and the assessment done by the actors implied in the elaboration/implementation/evaluation of the related policies. It is based both on documentary research as well as direct observation and interviews done to the actors implied. It concludes that the PBC and the EIF should be considered as a “technology of government”, that strives to align the conduct of the actors with the governmental aims, as well as it produces specific practices and knowledge. It also underlines an intrinsic feature of many policies: their “congenital failure”, since they are (often) disputed and resignified by situated actors, who are embedded in asymmetrical power relations.