Poor and under pressure: the social impact of Europe's fiscal consolidation. Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2015/04, March 2015

Europe faces major challenges related to poverty, unemployment and polarisation between the south and the north, which impact adversely the current living conditions of many citizens, and also negatively impact medium- and long-term economic growth. Fiscal consolidation exaggerated social hardship. In vulnerable countries there was no alternative to fiscal consolidation, but in most EU countries and at aggregate EU level, consolidation was premature when the cyclical position of the economy was deteriorating. Spending on social protection was shielded relative to other spending categories, but public bank rescue costs were high. While the changes in the tax mix favoured job creation, the overall tax burden become more regressive. There is an increasing generational divide between the elderly and the young in terms of social indicators. Social spending on elderly people was favoured relative to spending on families, children and education. There is now a serious danger that a lost generation might develop in several member states. Forceful policies should include bold structural reforms, better use of the European economic governance framework, more demand promotion, and a revision of national tax/benefit systems for fair burden sharing between the wealthy and poor.

The Fate of Greece in a ‘Genuine Economic and Monetary Union’: Lessons from a small island state. CEPS Hi-Level Brief, 19 June 2015 Friday, 19 June 2015

As the Greek debt drama reaches another supposedly decision point, Daniel Gros urges creditors (and indeed all policy-makers) to think about the long term and poses one key question in this CEPS High-Level Brief: What can be gained by keeping Greece inside the euro area at “whatever it takes”? As he points out, the US, with its unified politics and its federal fiscal transfer system, is often taken as a model for the Eurozone, and it is thus instructive to consider the longer-term performance of an area of the US which has for years been kept afloat by massive transfers, and which is now experiencing a public debt crisis. The entity in question is Puerto Rico, which is an integral part of the US in all relevant economic dimensions (currency, economic policy, etc.). The dismal fiscal and economic performance of Puerto Rico carries two lessons: 1) Keeping Greece in the eurozone by increasing implicit subsidies in the form of debt forgiveness might create a low-growth equilibrium with increasing aid dependency. 2) It is wrong to assume that, further integration, including a fiscal and political union, would be sufficient to foster convergence, and prevent further problems of the type the EU is experiencing with Greece.

Reform momentum and its impact on Greek growth. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2015/12, July 2015

Greece has an imperfect track-record of structural reform implementation. However, the poor growth outcome of the Greek programmes is also a consequence of the timing and composition of reforms, which were not optimally geared towards a speedy transition to a new growth model based on the private sector. While the main responsibility for this lies with the Greek authorities, international institutions share the responsibility for the poor growth-enhancing effect of reforms. In the current context, further structural reform efforts should be mainly targeted at supporting Greece's speedy return to solid growth rates. This is not only because poverty and unemployment have reached very high levels, but also for political economy reasons: reforms must quickly be seen to be working in order to buttress the consensus in favour of reform. Further efforts should be made to improve Greece’s business environment and to liberalise product markets, in addition to shifting taxation away from labour and towards consumption. Reforms to improve the quality of institutions should continue and are very much needed in the Greek setting, while taking into account that their demanding implementation might use up administrative capacity and their impact on growth will only be seen over long time horizons.

Institutions and Growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 421, April 2016

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth of European countries. When also taking into account the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt, cross-country institutional differences can explain to a great extent the relative long-term GDP performance of European countries. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor long-term real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The quality of national institutions seems to enhance the long-term GDP performance across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The paper offers some evidence that, in the presence of good institutions, conditions for catching-up seem generally good also for euro-area and fixed exchange rate countries. Looking at sub-groupings, it seems that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in the countries where the exchange rate tool is no longer available (and where also sovereign debt is high), and less so in the countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. However, this result is preliminary and requires further research. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular.

Growth, convergence and trade: The services sector in India’s states

India’s success story in services is well documented at the national level, but similar literature does not exist for India’s states. In this paper, we bridge this gap in research by looking at India’s services growth at the sub-national level and in doing so, also challenge existing literature by arguing that this growth has positive implications for income distribution. We find that even as per capita income is not converging across India’s states, per capita services are; evidence is provided both in terms of traditional measures of sigma- and beta-convergence and more recent panel unit root tests. A more disaggregated analysis of services sectors reveals convergence in railways, public administration and financial services. Finally, a Jensen & Kletzer (2005) approach to determining tradability provides evidence of most services being “traded” across India’s states, suggesting the role of such trade in the services growth and convergence story.

(Table 8.4, Page 220-223) Chemical composition of different growth structures of manganese nodules, SONNE cruise SO78

In the nodule field of the Peru Basin, situated south of the zone of high bioproductivity, a relatively high flux of biogenic matter explains a distinct redox boundary at about 10 cm depth separating very soft oxic surface sediments from stiffer suboxic sediments. Maximum abundance (50 kg/m**2) of diagenetic nodules is found near the calcite compensation depth (CCD), currently at 4250 m. There, the accretion rate of nodules is much higher (100 mm/Ma) than on ridges (5 mm/Ma). Highest accretion rates are found at the bottom of large nodules that repeatedly sink to a level immediately above the redox boundary. There, distinct diagenetic growth conditions prevail and layers of dense laminated Mn oxide of very pure todorokite are formed. The layering of nodules is mainly the result of organisms moving nodules within the oxic surface sediment from diagenetic to hydrogenetic environments. The frequency of such movements is much higher than that of climatic changes. Two types of nodule burial occur in the Peru Basin. Large nodules are less easily moved by organisms and become buried. Consequently, buried nodules generally are larger than surface nodules. This type of burial predominates in basins. At ridges where smaller nodules prevail, burial is mainly controlled by statistical selection where some nodules are not moved up by organisms.

Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

State Social Safety Net Programs and the Great Recession: The First Line of Defense and the Last Resort for the Economically Disadvantaged

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Portland’s Urban Growth Boundary and Lessons for Shanghai and Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Epidermal Growth Factor Gene (EGF) Polymorphism and Risk of Melanocytic Neoplasiay

A common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the 5' untranslated region (5'UTR) of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) gene modulates the level of transcription of this gene and hence is associated with serum levels of EGF. This variant may be associated with melanoma risk, but conflicting findings have been reported. An Australian melanoma case-control sample was typed for the EGF+61A>G transversion (rs4444903). The sample comprised 753 melanoma cases from 738 families stratified by family history of melanoma and 2387 controls from 645 unselected twin families. Ancestry of the cases and controls was recorded, and the twins had undergone skin examination to assess total body nevus count, degree of freckling and pigmentation phenotype. SNP genotyping was carried out via primer extension followed by matrix-assisted laser desorption time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectroscopy. The EGIF+61 SNP was not found to be significantly associated with melanoma status or with development of nevi or freckles. Among melanoma cases, however, G homozygotes had thicker tumors (p=0.05), in keeping with two previous studies. The EGF polymorphism does not appear to predispose to melanoma or nevus development, but its significant association with tumor thickness implies that it may be a useful marker of prognosis.

Isolation of an imaginal disc growth factor homologue from Pieris rapae and its expression following parasitization by Cotesia rubecula

Endoparasitoid insects introduce maternal factors into the body of their host at oviposition to suppress cellular defences for the protection of the developing parasitoid. We have shown that transient expression of polydnavirus genes from a hymenopteran parasitoid Cotesia rubecula (CrPDV) is responsible for the inactivation of hemocytes from the lepidopteran host Pieris rapae. Since the observed downregulation of CrPDV genes in infected host tissues is not due to cis-regulatory elements at the CrV1 gene locus, we speculated that the termination of CrPDV gene expression may be due to cellular inactivation caused by the CrV1-mediated immune suppression of infected tissues. To test this assumption, we isolated an imaginal disc growth factor (IDGF) that is expressed in fat body and hemocytes, the target of viral infection and expression of CrPDV genes. Time-course experiments showed that the level of P. rapae IDGF is not affected by parasitization and polydnavirus infection. However, the amount of highly expressed genes, such as storage proteins, arylphorin and lipophorin, are significantly reduced following parasitization. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.