A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

L'entorn de les WebQuest com a recurs motivador per a la millora del rendiment d'alumnes amb dificultats d'atenció i amb N.E.E.

A partir de la creació i aplicació didàctica d'una WebQuest en un curs de 4t de Primària s'analitza com i de uina manera pot influir positivament en el rendiment personal i acadèmic del grup d'alumnes, grup que presenta unes característiques acusades de dificultats d'atenció generalitzada, forts desnivells de coneixements, i en el qual es troben alumnes amb necessitats educatives especials (n.e.e.). Les webquest poden ser un bon recurs didàctic per a motivar el treball cooperatiu i la interacció entre alumnes, professors i les tecnologies de la informació i la comunicació.

Molecular characterization of the NSP4 gene of human group A rotavirus samples from the West Central region of Brazil

Nonstructural protein 4 (NSP4), encoded by group A rotavirus genome segment 10, is a multifunctional protein and the first recognized virus-encoded enterotoxin. The NSP4 gene has been sequenced, and five distinct genetic groups have been described: genotypes A-E. NSP4 genotypes A, B, and C have been detected in humans. In this study, the NSP4-encoding gene of human rotavirus strains of different G and P genotypes collected from children between 1987 and 2003 in three cities of West Central region of Brazil was characterized. NSP4 gene of 153 rotavirus-positive fecal samples was amplified by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and then sequenced. For phylogenetic analysis, NSP4 nucleotide sequences of these samples were compared to nucleotide sequences of reference strains available in GenBank. Two distinct NSP4 genotypes could be identified: 141 (92.2%) sequences clustered with NSP4 genotype B, and 12 sequences (7.8%) clustered with NSP4 genotype A. These results reinforce that further investigations are needed to assess the validity of NSP4 as a suitable target for epidemiologic surveillance of rotavirus infections and vaccine development.

Group A rotavirus genotypes and the ongoing Brazilian experience: a review

Brazil was the first Latin American country to introduce universal group A rotavirus (RV-A) vaccination in March 2006, resulting in a unique epidemiological scenario. Since RV-A first identification in Brazil, 2,691 RV-A-positive stool samples, collected between 1982- 2007, were typed by independent research groups throughout the country. In the pre-vaccination era, 2,492 RV-A-positive samples collected from 1982-2005 were successfully typed, while 199 samples were analyzed from 2006-2007. According to the reviewed studies, there were two important times in the pre-vaccination era: (i) the period from 1982-1995, during which the detection of G5P[8] RV-A, in addition to the classical genotypes G1-4, challenged vaccine development programs; and (ii) the period from 1996-2005, during which genotype G9P[8] emerged, following a global trend. The rate of G2P[4] RV-A detection decreased from 26% (173/653) during 1982-1995 to 2% (43/1,839) during 1996-2005. The overall detection rate of RV-A genotypes from 1982-2005 was as follows: 43% (n = 1,079) G1P[8]/G1P[not typed (NT)]; 20% (n = 488) G9P[8]/G9P[NT]; 9% (n = 216) G2P[4]/G2P[NT]; 6% (n = 151) G3P[8]/G3P[NT]; 4% (n = 103) G4P[8]/G4P[NT]; and 4% (n = 94) G5P[8]/G5P[NT]. Mixed infections accounted for 189 (7%) of the positive samples, while atypical G/P combinations or other genotypes, including G6, G8, G10 and G12, were identified in 172 (7%) samples. The initial surveillance studies carried out in several Brazilian states with RV-A-positive samples collected in 2006 and 2007 show a predominance of G2P[4] strains (148/199 or 74%). Herein, we review RV-A typing studies carried out since the 1980s in Brazil, highlighting the dynamics of RV-A strain circulation profiles before and early after universal use of RV-A vaccine in Brazil.

Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, virulence determinants and antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of type Ia group B streptococci isolated from humans in Brazil

Group B streptococci (GBS) infections occur worldwide. Although serotyping has been used for epidemiologic purposes, this does not accurately characterize enough members of a genetically heterogeneous bacterial population. The aims of this work were to evaluate the genetic diversity of 45 type Ia GBS strains isolated in Brazil by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis as well as to evaluate antimicrobial susceptibility profiles and identify virulence genes. Twenty-four strains were assigned to cluster A. All strains under study contained the hylB and scpB genes. The bca gene was detected in only 10 strains and none of the streptococci carried the bac gene. Thirty-nine strains were resistant to tetracycline.

Identification of uropathogenic Escherichia coli clonal group A (CgA) in hospitalised patients

This study provides the first description of healthcare-associated infections with Escherichia coli clonal group A (CgA) isolates in Latin America. Isolates were typed by enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-PCR, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, E. coli phylogenetic grouping, multilocus sequence typing and fimH single nucleotide polymorphism analysis. Out of 42 E. coli hospital isolates studied, three belonged to E. coli phylogenetic group D and ST69 and had fimH sequences identical to that of the CgA reference strain ATCC BAA-457. E. coli CgA is another potential source of resistant infections in hospitals.

Outcome after relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in adult patients included in four consecutive risk-adapted trials by the PETHEMA Study Group

BACKGROUND About one half of adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia are not cured of the disease and ultimately die. The objective of this study was to explore the factors influencing the outcome of adult patients with relapsed acute lymphoblastic leukemia. DESIGN AND METHODS. We analyzed the characteristics, the outcome and the prognostic factors for survival after first relapse in a series of 263 adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (excluding those with mature B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia) prospectively enrolled in four consecutive risk-adapted PETHEMA trials. RESULTS. The median overall survival after relapse was 4.5 months (95% CI, 4-5 months) with a 5-year overall survival of 10% (95% CI, 8%-12%); 45% of patients receiving intensive second-line treatment achieved a second complete remission and 22% (95% CI, 14%-30%) of them remained disease free at 5 years. Factors predicting a good outcome after rescue therapy were age less than 30 years (2-year overall survival of 21% versus 10% for those over 30 years old; P<0.022) and a first remission lasting more than 2 years (2-year overall survival of 36% versus 17% among those with a shorter first remission; P<0.001). Patients under 30 years old whose first complete remission lasted longer than 2 years had a 5-year overall survival of 38% (95% CI, 23%-53%) and a 5-year disease-free survival of 53% (95% CI, 34%-72%). CONCLUSIONS The prognosis of adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia who relapse is poor. Those aged less than 30 years with a first complete remission lasting longer than 2 years have reasonable possibilities of becoming long-term survivors while patients over this age or those who relapse early cannot be successfully rescued using the therapies currently available.

Culicoides baniwa sp.nov. from the Brazilian Amazon Region with a synopsis of the hylas species group (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

A new species of the Culicoides (Hoffmania) hylas species group, Culicoides baniwa Felippe-Bauer is described and illustrated based on a female specimen from the state of Amazonas, Brazil. A systematic key, wing photographs, diagramme of the legs pattern, table with numerical characters of females and a synopsis of the 11 species of the C. hylas group are presented. This paper further presents a new record of Culicoides pseudoheliconiae Felippe-Bauer out of the previously defined geographic distribution of the hylas species group, in the province of Misiones, Argentina.

Specimen storage in transport medium and detection of group B streptococci by culture

Recovery of group B streptococci (GBS) was assessed in 1,204 vaginorectal swabs stored in Amies transport medium at 4 or 21°C for 1 to 4 days either by direct inoculation onto Granada agar (GA) or by culture in blood agar (BA) and GA after a selective broth enrichment (SBE) step. Following storage at 4°C, GBS detection in GA was not affected after 72 h by either direct inoculation or SBE; however, GBS were not detected after SBE in the BA subculture in some samples after 48 h of storage and in GA after 96 h. After storage at 21°C, loss of GBS-positive results was significant after 48 h by direct inoculation in GA and after 96 h by SBE and BA subculture; some GBS-positive samples were not detected after 24 h of storage followed by SBE and BA subculture or after 48 h of storage followed by SBE and GA subculture. Storage of swabs in transport medium, even at 4°C, produced after 24 h an underestimation of the intensity of GBS colonization in most specimens. These data indicate that viability of GBS is not fully preserved by storage of vaginorectal swabs in Amies transport medium, mainly if they are not stored under refrigeration