NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF ENTERIC BACTERIA IN DAY-CARE CENTERS, HOUSTON, TEXAS

An investigation was undertaken to evaluate the role of fomites in the transmission of diarrhea in day-care centers (DCC) and to elucidate the paths by which enteric organisms spread within this setting.^ During a nine-month period (December 1980-August 1981) extensive culturing of inanimate objects, as well as children and staff was done routinely each month and again repeated during diarrhea outbreaks. Air was sampled from the classrooms and toilets using a Single-Stage Sieve Sampler (Ross Industries, Midland, VA.). Stool samples were collected from both ill and well children and staff in the affected rooms only during outbreaks. Environmental samples were processed for Shigella, salmonella and fecal coliforms while stools were screened for miscellaneous enteropathogens.^ A total of 11 outbreaks occurred in the 5 DCC during the study period. Enteric pathogens were recovered in 7 (64%) of the outbreaks. Multiple pathogens were identified in 3 outbreaks. The most frequently identified pathogen in stools was Giardia lamblia which was recovered in 5 (45%) of the outbreaks. Ten of the 11 (91%) outbreaks occurred in children less than 12 months of age.^ Environmental microbiology studies together with epidemiologic information revealed that enteric organisms were transmitted from person-to-person. On routine sampling, fecal coliforms were most frequently isolated from tap handles and diaper change areas. Contamination with fetal coliforms was wide-spread during diarrhea outbreaks. Fecal coliforms were recovered with significantly greater frequency from hands, toys and other classroom objects during outbreaks than during non-outbreak period. Salmonella typhimurium was recovered from a table top during an outbreak of Salmonellosis. There was no association between the level of enteric microbial contamination in the toilet areas and the occurrence of outbreaks. No evidence was found to indicate that enteric organisms were spread by the airborne route via aerosols.^ Toys, other classroom objects and contaminated hands probably play a major role in the transmission of enteropathogens during day-care center outbreaks. The presence of many enteric agents in the environment undoubtedly explains the polymicrobial etiology of the day-care center associated diarrhea outbreaks. ^

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE DEMAND FOR CARE IN A FREE-STANDING EMERGENCY CENTER

Free-standing emergency centers (FECs) represent a new approach to the delivery of health care which are competing for patients with more conventional forms of ambulatory care in many parts of the U.S. Currently, little is known about these centers and their patient populations. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to describe the patients who visited two commonly-owned FECs, and determine the reasons for their visits. An economic model of the demand for FEC care was developed to test its ability to predict the economic and sociodemographic factors of use. Demand analysis of other forms of ambulatory services, such as a regular source of care (RSOC), was also conducted to examine the issues of substitution and complementarity.^ A systematic random sample was chosen from all private patients who used the clinics between July 1 and December 31, 1981. Data were obtained by means of a telephone interview and from clinic records. Five hundred fifty-one patients participated in the study.^ The typical FEC patient was a 26 year old white male with a minimum of a high school education, and a family income exceeding $25,000 a year. He had lived in the area for at least twenty years, and was a professional or a clerical worker. The patients made an average of 1.26 visits to the FECs in 1981. The majority of the visits involved a medical complaint; injuries and preventive care were the next most common reasons for visits.^ The analytic results revealed that time played a relatively important role in the demand for FEC care. As waiting time at the patients' regular source of care increased, the demand for FEC care increased, indicating that the clinic serves as a substitute for the patients' usual means of care. Age and education were inversely related to the demand for FEC care, while those with a RSOC frequented the clinics less than those lacking such a source.^ The patients used the familiar forms of ambulatory care, such as a private physician or an emergency room in a more typical fashion. These visits were directly related to the age and education of the patients, existence of a regular source of care, and disability days, which is a measure of health status. ^

Breast cancer risk with aromatase inhibition and phytoestrogen-free diet

In this thesis a mouse model was used to examine the effect of pubertal estrogen inhibition and a phytoestrogen-free diet on the development of mammary glands. The study question was does treatment with aromatase inhibitor during puberty increase susceptibility to breast cancer among cohorts that consumed a diet free of phytoestrogens. The study design consisted of a cohort of mice treated with aromatase inhibitor, letrozole, during puberty and a vehicular group that was used as a control. Both groups were fed a diet free of phytoestrogens from the time of weaning until sacrifice during adulthood. The study aimed to assess mammary gland development in terms of breast cancer risk. The methods employed in this research included morphological and histological analysis of mammary glands, as well as estradiol, RNA and protein analysis. The main finding of the study was that mice exposed to aromatase inhibitor during puberty developed mammary glands with specific characteristics suggestive of vulnerability to oncogenesis such as increased lateral branching, increased number of glands, increase ductal hyperplasia, and diminished expression of TGFβ and p27 protein levels. The conclusions suggest that puberty is a critical period in which the mammary gland is susceptible to environmental threats that may result in deleterious epigenetic effects leading to an increased breast cancer risk in adulthood. This study has several public health implications; the most significant is that environmental threats during puberty may result in adverse mammary gland development and that phytoestrogen sources in the diet are necessary for normal maturation of the mammary glands.^

IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF A NOVEL ROLE FOR THE TOUSLED-LIKE KINASE IN REGULATING MITOTIC SPINDLE DYNAMICS

Deregulation of kinase activity is one example of how cells become cancerous by evading evolutionary constraints. The Tousled kinase (Tsl) was initially identified in Arabidopsis thaliana as a developmentally important kinase. There are two mammalian orthologues of Tsl and one orthologue in C. elegans, TLK-1, which is essential for embryonic viability and germ cell development. Depletion of TLK-1 leads to embryonic arrest large, distended nuclei, and ultimately embryonic lethality. Prior to terminal arrest, TLK-1-depleted embryos undergo aberrant mitoses characterized by poor metaphase chromosome alignment, delayed mitotic progression, lagging chromosomes, and supernumerary centrosomes. I discovered an unanticipated requirement for TLK-1 in mitotic spindle assembly and positioning. Normally, in the newly-fertilized zygote (P0) the maternal pronucleus migrates toward the paternal pronucleus at the posterior end of the embryo. After pronuclear meeting, the pronuclear-centrosome complex rotates 90° during centration to align on the anteroposterior axis followed by nuclear envelope breakdown (NEBD). However, in TLK-1-depleted P0 embryos, the centrosome-pronuclear complex rotation is significantly delayed with respect to NEBD and chromosome congression, Additionally, centrosome positions over time in tlk-1(RNAi) early embryos revealed a defect in posterior centrosome positioning during spindle-pronuclear centration, and 4D analysis of centrosome positions and movement in newly fertilized embryos showed aberrant centrosome dynamics in TLK-1-depleted embryos. Several mechanisms contribute to spindle rotation, one of which is the anchoring of astral microtubules to the cell cortex. Attachment of these microtubules to the cortices is thought to confer the necessary stability and forces in order to rotate the centrosome-pronuclear complex in a timely fashion. Analysis of a microtubule end-binding protein revealed that TLK-1-depleted embryos exhibit a more stochastic distribution of microtubule growth toward the cell cortices, and the types of microtubule attachments appear to differ from wild-type embryos. Additionally, fewer astral microtubules are in the vicinity of the cell cortex, thus suggesting that the delayed spindle rotation could be in part due to a lack of appropriate microtubule attachments to the cell cortex. Together with recently published biochemical data revealing the Tousled-like kinases associate with components of the dynein microtubule motor complex in humans, these data suggest that Tousled-like kinases play an important role in mitotic spindle assembly and positioning.

EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ANISOTROPIC ANALYTICAL ALGORITHM IN FLATTENED AND FLATTENING-FILTER-FREE BEAMS FOR HIGH ENERGY LUNG DOSE DELIVERY USING THE RADIOLOGICAL PHYSICS CENTER LUNG PHANTOM

The effectiveness of the Anisotropic Analytical Algorithm (AAA) implemented in the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) was evaluated using theRadiologicalPhysicsCenteranthropomorphic lung phantom using both flattened and flattening-filter-free high energy beams. Radiation treatment plans were developed following the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and theRadiologicalPhysicsCenterguidelines for lung treatment using Stereotactic Radiation Body Therapy. The tumor was covered such that at least 95% of Planning Target Volume (PTV) received 100% of the prescribed dose while ensuring that normal tissue constraints were followed as well. Calculated doses were exported from the Eclipse TPS and compared with the experimental data as measured using thermoluminescence detectors (TLD) and radiochromic films that were placed inside the phantom. The results demonstrate that the AAA superposition-convolution algorithm is able to calculate SBRT treatment plans with all clinically used photon beams in the range from 6 MV to 18 MV. The measured dose distribution showed a good agreement with the calculated distribution using clinically acceptable criteria of ±5% dose or 3mm distance to agreement. These results show that in a heterogeneous environment a 3D pencil beam superposition-convolution algorithms with Monte Carlo pre-calculated scatter kernels, such as AAA, are able to reliably calculate dose, accounting for increased lateral scattering due to the loss of electronic equilibrium in low density medium. The data for high energy plans (15 MV and 18 MV) showed very good tumor coverage in contrast to findings by other investigators for less sophisticated dose calculation algorithms, which demonstrated less than expected tumor doses and generally worse tumor coverage for high energy plans compared to 6MV plans. This demonstrates that the modern superposition-convolution AAA algorithm is a significant improvement over previous algorithms and is able to calculate doses accurately for SBRT treatment plans in the highly heterogeneous environment of the thorax for both lower (≤12 MV) and higher (greater than 12 MV) beam energies.

Evaluation of the impact of access to free influenza vaccine on immunization rates for children with cystic fibrosis

Children with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of seasonal influenza associated complications, which makes them a judicious target of interventions designed to increase influenza vaccination rates. The Baylor College of Medicine/Texas Children's Hospital Pediatric Cystic Fibrosis (BCM/TCH CF) Care Center implemented an enhanced multi-component initiative designed to increase influenza vaccination rates in its patient population during the 2011-2012 influenza season. We evaluated the impact of specific components of this intervention on vaccination rates among the clinic's patient population via a historical medical chart review and examined the relationship between vaccination status and the number of pulmonary exacerbations requiring hospital admission during the influenza season. The multi-component intervention was comprised of providing influenza free of charge in the CF Care Center, reminders via phone call and letters, and drive through influenza vaccine clinics on nights and weekends. The intervention to increase influenza vaccination rates led to overall improved vaccination rates among the patients at the BCM/TCH CF Care Center, increasing from 90% adherence observed during the 2010-2011 season to 94% adherence during the 2011-2012 season. The availability of free influenza vaccine in the CF Care Center, combined with reminders about being vaccinated early in the season proved to be the most effective practices for improving the vaccination rate in the CF Care Center.^

Novel Imaging-Based Techniques Reveal a Role for PD-1/PD-L1 in Tumor Immune Surveillance in the Lung

The binding of immune inhibitory receptor Programmed Death 1 (PD-1) on T cells to its ligand PD-L1 has been implicated as a major contributor to tumor induced immune suppression. Clinical trials of PD-L1 blockade have proven effective in unleashing therapeutic anti-tumor immune responses in a subset of patients with advanced melanoma, yet current response rates are low for reasons that remain unclear. Hypothesizing that the PD-1/PD-L1 pathway regulates T cell surveillance within the tumor microenvironment, we employed intravital microscopy to investigate the in vivo impact of PD-L1 blocking antibody upon tumor-associated immune cell migration. However, current analytical methods of intravital dynamic microscopy data lack the ability to identify cellular targets of T cell interactions in vivo, a crucial means for discovering which interactions are modulated by therapeutic intervention. By developing novel imaging techniques that allowed us to better analyze tumor progression and T cell dynamics in the microenvironment; we were able to explore the impact of PD-L1 blockade upon the migratory properties of tumor-associated immune cells, including T cells and antigen presenting cells, in lung tumor progression. Our results demonstrate that early changes in tumor morphology may be indicative of responsiveness to anti-PD-L1 therapy. We show that immune cells in the tumor microenvironment as well as tumors themselves express PD-L1, but immune phenotype alone is not a predictive marker of effective anti-tumor responses. Through a novel method in which we quantify T cell interactions, we show that T cells are largely engaged in interactions with dendritic cells in the tumor microenvironment. Additionally, we show that during PD-L1 blockade, non-activated T cells are recruited in greater numbers into the tumor microenvironment and engage more preferentially with dendritic cells. We further show that during PD-L1 blockade, activated T cells engage in more confined, immune synapse-like interactions with dendritic cells, as opposed to more dynamic, kinapse-like interactions with dendritic cells when PD-L1 is free to bind its receptor. By advancing the contextual analysis of anti-tumor immune surveillance in vivo, this study implicates the interaction between T cells and tumor-associated dendritic cells as a possible modulator in targeting PD-L1 for anti-tumor immunotherapy.

CONFORMATIONAL DYNAMICS OF K-RAS AND H-RAS PROTEINS: IS THERE FUNCTIONAL SPECIFICITY AT THE CATALYTIC DOMAIN?

Ras proteins serve as crucial signaling modulators in cell proliferation through their ability to hydrolyze GTP and exist in a GTP “on” state and GTP “off” state. There are three different human Ras isoforms: H-ras, N-ras and K-ras (4A and 4B). Although their sequence identity is very high at the catalytic domain, these isoforms differ in their ability to activate different effectors and hence different signaling pathways. Much of the previous work on this topic has attributed this difference to the hyper variable region of Ras proteins, which contains most of the sequence variance among the isoforms and encodes specificity for differential distribution in the membrane. However, we hypothesize that sequence variation on lobe II of Ras catalytic domain alters dynamics and leads to differential preference for different effectors or modulators. In this work, we used all atom molecular dynamics to analyze the dynamics in the catalytic domain of H-ras and K-ras. We have also analyzed the dynamics of a transforming mutant of H-ras and K-ras and further studied the dynamics of an effectorselective mutant of H-ras. Collectively we have determined that wild type K-ras is more dynamic than H-ras and that the structure of the effector binding loop more closely resembles that of the T35S Raf-selective mutant, possibly giving us a new view and insight into the v mode of effector specificity. Furthermore we have determined that specific mutations at the same location perturb the conformational equilibrium differently in H-ras and K-ras and that an enhanced oncogenic potential may arise from different structural perturbations for each point mutation of a specific isoform.

Proceedings of the 24th Annual Biochemical Engineering Symposium

The 24th Biochemical Engineering Symposium was held 9-10 September 1994 at the YMCA of the Rockies conference center in Estes Park, Colorado, under the sponsorship of the Department of Chemical Engineering at the University of Colorado. Previous symposia in this series have been hosted by Kansas State University (1st, 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 16th, 20th), University of Nebraska-Lincoln (2nd, 4th), Iowa State University (6th, 7th, 10th, 13th, 17th, 22nd), University of Missouri-Columbia (8th, 14th, 19th), Colorado State University (11th, 15th, 21st), University of Colorado (18th), and the University of Oklahoma (23rd). The next symposium is scheduled to be held at the University of Missouri-Columbia. The symposia are devoted to talks by students about their ongoing research. Because final publication usually takes place elsewhere, the papers included in the proceedings are brief, and often cover work in progress. ContentsIn-Well Aeration: An Innovative Subsurface Remediation TechnologyPrashant Gandhi, X. Yang, L.E. Erickson, and L. T. Fan; Kansas State University Expression of an Antimicrobial Peptide Analog in Eacherlchill coliChris Haught and Roger G. Harrison; University of Oklahoma Using High-frequency Backpulaing to Maximize Croasflow Filtration PerformanceSanjeev G. Redkar and Robert H. Davis; University of Colorado Low Molecular Weight Organic Compositions of Acid Waters from Vegetable Oil SoapstocksSteven L. Johansen, Arunthathi Sivasothy, Peter J. Reilly, and Earl G. Hammond; Iowa State University; Michael K. Dowd; U.S. Department of Agriculture Gas Phase Composition Effects on Suspension Cultures of Taxus cuspidata Noushin Mirjalili and James C. Linden; Colorado State University Cybernetic Modeling of Spontaneous Oscillations in Continuous Cultures of Ssccharomyces cerevisiaeKenneth D. Jones and Dhinakar S. Kompala; University of Colorado The Effect of Turbulent Shear on Calcium Mobilization in Mammalian CellsChristopher M. Cannizzaro, Pradyumna K. Namdev, and Eric H. Dunlop; Colorado State University Experimental Studies of Droplet Ejection at the Free Surface In Sparged ReactorsT. Y. Yiin, L A. Glasgow, and L. E. Erickson; Kansas State University The Role of Domain E (Starch-Binding Region) on the Activity of a Bacillus macersns Cyclodextrln GlucanotransferaseHai-yin Chang, Trang Le, and Zivko L. Nikolov; Iowa State University Use of the Rotating Wall Vessel for Study of Plant Cell Suspension CulturesXinzhi Sun and James C. Linden; Colorado State University A Novel Counter-Current Distribution Apparatus for the Study of Multi-Stage Aqueous Two-Phase Extraction of Biomolecules and Cell ParticlesMartin R. Guinn and Paul Todd; University of Colorado The Dynamics of Unhooking and Contraction of a Polyelectrolyte Chain Around an Isolated PostLin Zhang and Edith M. Sevick; University of Colorado A Laboratory Study of the Fate of Trichloroathylene and 1,1,1-Trlchloroathane In the Presence of Alfalfa PlantsMuralidharan Narayanan, Ryan M. Green, Lawrence C. Davis, and Larry E. Erickson; Kansas State University Modeling the Fate of Pyrene In the RhIzosphereS.K. Santharam, LE. Erickson, and L. T. Fan; Kansas State University Derivatization of MaltooligosaccharidesDaniela Prinz, Peter J. Reilly, and Zivko L. Nikolov; Iowa State University Probing Surfactant-Protein Binding by EPA SpectroscopyNarendra B. Bam, Yale University; Theodore W. Randolph; University of Colorado Optimization of a Stir-Cell Bioreactor for In Vitro Production of RNANeal T. Williams, Kim A. Wicklund, and Robert H. Davis; University of Colorado