Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Using Imaging Spectroscopy to study soil properties

Imaging Spectroscopy (IS) is a promising tool for studying soil properties in large spatial domains. Going from point to image spectrometry is not only a journey from micro to macro scales, but also a long stage where problems such as dealing with data having a low signal-to-noise level, contamination of the atmosphere, large data sets, the BRDF effect and more are often encountered. In this paper we provide an up-to-date overview of some of the case studies that have used IS technology for soil science applications. Besides a brief discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of IS for studying soils, the following cases are comprehensively discussed: soil degradation (salinity, erosion, and deposition), soil mapping and classification, soil genesis and formation, soil contamination, soil water content, and soil swelling. We review these case studies and suggest that the 15 data be provided to the end-users as real reflectance and not as raw data and with better signal-to-noise ratios than presently exist. This is because converting the raw data into reflectance is a complicated stage that requires experience, knowledge, and specific infrastructures not available to many users, whereas quantitative spectral models require good quality data. These limitations serve as a barrier that impedes potential end-users, inhibiting researchers from trying this technique for their needs. The paper ends with a general call to the soil science audience to extend the utilization of the IS technique, and it provides some ideas on how to propel this technology forward to enable its widespread adoption in order to achieve a breakthrough in the field of soil science and remote sensing. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prolactin: Does it exert an up-modulation of the immune response in Trypanosoma cruzi-infected rats?

During the course of infection by Trypanosma cruzi, the host immune system is involved in distinct, complex interactions with the endocrine system, and prolactin (PRL) is one of several hormones involved in immunoregulation. Although intensive studies attempting to understand the mechanisms that underlie Chagas` disease have been undertaken, there are still some pieces missing from this complex puzzle. Because data are scarce concerning the role of PRL involvement in Chagas` disease and taking into account the existence of crosstalk between neuroendocrine hormones and the immune system, the current study evaluates a possible up-regulation of the cellular immune response triggered by PRL in T. cruzi-infected rats and the role of PRL in reversing immunosuppression caused by the parasitic infection. The data shown herein demonstrate that PRL induces the proliferation of T lymphocytes, coupled with an activation of macrophages and the production of nitric oxide (NO), leading to a reduction in the number of blood trypomastigotes during the peak of parasitemia. During the acute phase of T. cruzi infection, an enhancement of both CD3+CD4+ and CD3+CD8+ T cell populations were observed in infected groups, with the highest numbers of these T cell subsets found in the infected group treated with PRL Because NO is a signaling molecule involved in a number of cellular interactions with components of the immune system and the neuroendocrine system, PRL can be considered an alternative hormone able to up-regulate the host`s immune system, consequently lowering the pathological effects of a T. cruzi infection. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aerodynamic Drag Reduction for Satellites in Low Earth Orbit

Stalker (AIAA Paper 87-0403) has suggested that, by ejecting molecules directly upstream from the entire face of a satellite, it is possible to reduce the drag on a satellite in low-Earth orbit and hence maintain orbit with a total fuel mass (for forward ejection and conventional reaction rockets) less than the typical mass requirements of conventional rockets. An analytical analysis is presented here, as well as Monte Carlo simulations. These indicate that to reduce the overall drag on the satellite significantly, collisions between the freestream and ejected molecules must occur at least two satellite diameters upstream. This can be achieved if the molecules are ejected far upstream from the satellite’s surface through a sting that projects forward from the satellite. Using some estimates of what would be feasible sting arrangements, we find that the drag on the satellite can be reduced to such an extent that the satellite’s orbit can be maintained with a total fuel mass of less than 60% of that required for reaction rockets alone. Upstream ejection is effective in reducing the drag for freestream Knudsen numbers less than approximately 250, but not otherwise.

Salt Glands in the Tongue of the Estuarine Crocodile Crocodylus Porosus

The apparent absence of salt glands in marine and estuarine Crocodilia has long been a puzzle. However, we have identified glands in the tongue of Crocodylus porosus which exude a concentrated secretion of sodium chloride. The glands are similar in ultrastructure to other reptilian salt glands and undoubtedly play a major role in electrolyte regulation.

A Fibred Tableau Calculus for Modal Logics of Agents

In previous works we showed how to combine propositional multimodal logics using Gabbay's \emph{fibring} methodology. In this paper we extend the above mentioned works by providing a tableau-based proof technique for the combined/fibred logics. To achieve this end we first make a comparison between two types of tableau proof systems, (\emph{graph} $\&$ \emph{path}), with the help of a scenario (The Friend's Puzzle). Having done that we show how to uniformly construct a tableau calculus for the combined logic using Governatori's labelled tableau system \KEM. We conclude with a discussion on \KEM's features.

THE_PM_BOK_CODE

This paper puts forward the argument that PM is spreading because it is a well adapted collection of memes, and that the Project Management Institute (PMI®) Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) version of project management (the PM_BOK Code) has more to do with the appearance of a capability for productivity than it does with actual productivity. It suggests that project management is evolving in a toxic manner, and that corporations will reap more benefit from it than people. The paper concludes with a call for a reformation of the PMBOK®.

Clifford Geertz, 1926-2006: Meaning, method, and Indonesian economic history

Clifford Geertz was best known for his pioneering excursions into symbolic or interpretive anthropology, especially in relation to Indonesia. Less well recognised are his stimulating explorations of the modern economic history of Indonesia. His thinking on the interplay of economics and culture was most fully and vigorously expounded in Agricultural Involution. That book deployed a succinctly packaged past in order to solve a pressing contemporary puzzle, Java's enduring rural poverty and apparent social immobility. Initially greeted with acclaim, later and ironically the book stimulated the deep and multi-layered research that in fact led to the eventual rejection of Geertz's central contentions. But the veracity or otherwise of Geertz's inventive characterisation of Indonesian economic development now seems irrelevant; what is profoundly important is the extraordinary stimulus he gave to a generation of scholars to explore Indonesia's modern economic history with a depth and intensity previously unimaginable.

On the threshold of forgetting: Amnesiac identities and the Brazilian capital

Centuries after Locke asserted the importance of memory to identity, Freudian psychology argued that what was forgotten was of equal importance as to what was remembered. The closing decades of the nineteenth century saw a rising interest in the nature of forgetting, resulting in a reassessment and newfound distrust of the long revered faculty of memory. The relationship between memory and identity was inverted, seeing forgetting also become a means for forging identity. This newfound distrust of memory manifested in the writings of Nietzsche who in 1874 called for society to learn to feel unhistorically and distance itself from the past - in what was essentially tantamount to a cultural forgetting. Following the Nietzschean call, the architecture of Modernism was also compelled by the need to 'overcome' the limits imposed by history. This paper examines notions of identity through the shifting boundaries of remembering and forgetting, with particular reference to the construction of Brazilian identity through the ‘repression’ of history and memory in the design of the Brazilian capital. Designed as a forward-looking modernist utopia, transcending the limits imposed by the country's colonial heritage, the design for Brasilia exploited the anti-historicist agenda of modernism to emancipate the country from cultural and political associations with the Portuguese Empire. This paper examines the relationship between place, memory and forgetting through a discussion of the design for Brasilia.

Satellite protection and drag reduction using a purging gas flow

We have used the DSMC method to determine contamination (impingement of atmospheric molecules) and the aerodynamic forces on a cold satellite when a protective “purge gas” is ejected from a sting protruding ahead of the satellite. Forward ejection of the purge gas provides the greatest protection for a given mass of purge gas and the aerodynamic drag can be significantly reduced, thus compensating for the backward reaction from the forward ejection. If the purge gas is ejected backward from the sting (towards the satellite) the ejection provides thrust and the net retarding force can be reduced to zero. Contamination can be reduced and the mass of purging gas is less than the mass of conventional rocket propellant required to maintain the orbit of an unprotected satellite.

Delayed postural contraction of transversus abdominis in low back pain associated with movement of the lower limb

The temporal parameters of the response of the trunk muscles associated with movement of the lower limb were investigated in people with and without low back pain (LBP). The weight shift component of the task was completed voluntarily prior to a stimulus to move to allow investigation of the movement component of the response. In the control subjects the onset of electromyographic (EMG) activity of all trunk muscles preceded that of the muscle responsible for limb movement, thus contributing to the feed forward postural response. The EMG onset of transversus abdominis was delayed in the LBP subjects with movement in each direction, while the EMG onsets of rectus abdominis, erector spinae, and oblique abdominal muscles were delayed with specific movement directions. This result provides evidence of a change in the postural control of the trunk in people with LBP.

Prefrontal cortex involvement in selective letter generation: A functional magnetic resonance imaging study

Cerebral responses to alternating periods of a control task and a selective letter generation paradigm were investigated with functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). Subjects selectively generated letters from four designated sets of six letters from the English language alphabet, with the instruction that they were not to produce letters in alphabetical order either forward or backward, repeat or alternate letters. Performance during this condition was compared with that of a control condition in which subjects recited the same letters in alphabetical order. Analyses revealed significant and extensive foci of activation in a number of cerebral regions including mid-dorsolateral frontal cortex, inferior frontal gyrus, precuneus, supramarginal gyrus, and cerebellum during the selective letter generation condition. These findings are discussed with respect to recent positron emission tomography (PET) and fMRI studies of verbal working memory and encoding/retrieval in episodic memory.