999 resultados para forecast evaluation


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a program designed to reduce back pain in nursing aides. METHODS: Female nursing aides from a university hospital who had suffered episodes of back pain for at least six months were included in the study. Participants were randomly divided into a control group and an intervention group. The intervention program involved a set of exercises and an educational component stressing the ergonomic aspect, administered twice a week during working hours for four months. All subjects answered a structured questionnaire and the intensity of pain was assessed before and after the program using a visual analogue scale (VAS). Student's t-test or the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test for independent samples, and Chi-square test or the Exact Fisher test for categorical analysis, were used. The McNemar test and the Wilcoxon matched pairs test were used to compare the periods before and after the program. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant decrease in the frequency of cervical pain in the last two months and in the last seven days in the intervention group. There was also a reduction in cervical pain intensity in the two periods (2 months, 7 days) and lumbar pain intensity in the last 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that a program of regular exercise with an emphasis on ergonomics can reduce musculoskeletal symptoms in nursing personnel.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: The current study set out to investigate alcohol availability in a densely populated, residential area of suburban São Paulo associated with high levels of social deprivation and violence. Gun-related deaths and a heavy concentration of alcohol outlets are notable features of the area surveyed. Given the strong evidence for a link between alcohol availability and a number of alcohol-related problems, including violent crime, measures designed to reduce accessibility have become a favored choice for alcohol prevention programs in recent years. METHODS: The interviewers were 24 residents of the area who were trained for the study. It was selected an area of nineteen streets, covering a total distance of 3.7 km. A profile of each alcohol outlet available on the area was recorded. RESULTS: One hundred and seven alcohol outlets were recorded. The number of other properties in the same area was counted at 1,202. Two measures of outlet density may thus be calculated: the number of outlets per kilometer of roadway (29 outlets/km); and the proportion of all properties that sold alcohol (1 in 12). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study is compared with others which are mainly from developed countries and shown that the area studied have the highest density of alcohol outlet density ever recorded in the medical literature. The implication of this data related to the violence of the region is discussed. By generating a profile of alcohol sales and selling points, it was hoped to gain a better understanding of alcohol access issues within the sample area. Future alcohol prevention policy would be well served by such knowledge.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Several antineoplasic drugs have been demonstrated to be carcinogenic or to have mutagenic and teratogenic effects. The greatest protection is achieved with the implementation of administrative and engineering controls and safety procedures. Objective: to evaluate the improvements on pharmacy technicians' work practices, after the implementation of operational procedures related to individual protection, biologic safety cabinet disinfection and cytotoxic drug preparation. Method: case-study in a hospital pharmacy undergoing a certification process. Six pharmacy technicians were observed during their daily activities. Characterization of the work practices was made using a checklist based on ISOPP and PIC guidelines. The variables studied concerning cleaning/disinfection procedures, personal protective equipment and procedures for preparing cytotoxic drugs. The same work practices were evaluated after four months of operational procedures implementation. Concordance between work practices and guidelines was considered to be a quality indicator (guidelines concordance practices number/total number of practices x 100). Results: improvements were observed after operational procedures implementation. An improvement of 6,25% in personal protective equipment practice was achieved by changing second pair of gloves every thirty minutes. The major progress, 10%, was obtained in disinfection procedure, where 80% of tasks are now realized according to guidelines.By now, we hot an improvement of only 1% at drug preparation procedure by placing one cytotoxic drug at a time inside the biological safety cabinet. Then, 85% of practices are according to guidelines. Conclusion: before operational procedures implementation 80,3% of practices were according to the guidelines, while now is 84,4%. This indicates that is necessary to review the procedures frequently in the benefit to reduce the risks associated with handling cytotoxic drugs and maintenance of drug specifications.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A test chamber was projected and built (according to ISO 16000-9 Standard) to simulate atmospheric conditions experienced by rubber infill (when applied in synthetic turf pitches) and measure accurately the airborne emissions of pollutants such as dusts and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as well as pollutants present in leachates. It should be pointed out that standard ISO 16000-9 is only concerned with the determination of the emission of VOC from building products and furnishing (not specific of synthetic turf materials), whereas other standards are concerned with the emission of leachates only. This procedure is to be considered as a technical option to the lysimeter "global turf system evaluation" when the rubber infill alone is to be evaluated. The advantage of the proposed option considering this "test chamber" is its simplicity and economy. This test chamber is actually installed and being used for tests in LAIST.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A family of 9H-thioxanthen-9-one derivatives and two precursors, 2-[(4-bromophenyl) sulfanyl]-5-nitrobenzoic acid and 2-[(4-aminophenyl) sulfanyl]-5-nitrobenzoic acid, were synthesized and studied in order to assess the role of the different substituent groups in determining the supramolecular motifs. From our results we can conclude that Etter's rules are obeyed: whenever present the -COOH head to head strong hydrogen bonding dimer, R-2(2)(8) synthon, prevails as the dominant interaction. As for -NH2, the best donor when present also follows the expected hierarchy, an NH center dot center dot center dot O(COOH) was formed in the acid precursor (2) and an NH center dot center dot center dot O(C=O) in the thioxanthone (4). The main role played by weaker hydrogen bonds such as CH center dot center dot center dot O, and other intermolecular interactions, pi-pi and Br center dot center dot center dot O, as well as the geometric restraints of packing patterns shows the energetic interplay governing crystal packing. A common feature is the relation between the p-p stacking and the unit cell dimensions. A new synthon notation, R`, introduced in this paper, refers to the possibility of accounting for intra- and intermolecular interactions into recognizable and recurring aggregate patterns.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study attempted to evaluate the influence of using an unstable shoe in muscle re-cruitment strategies and center of pressure (CoP) displacement after the application of an external perturba-tion. Fourteen healthy female subjects participated in this study. The electromyographic activity of medial ga-strocnemius, tibialis anterior, rectus femoris, biceps femoris, rectus abdominis and erector spinae muscles and the kinetic values to calculate the CoP were collected and analyzed after the application of an external pertur-bation with the subject in standing position, with no shoes and using unstable footwear. The results showed increased in medial gastrocnemius activity during the first compensatory postural adjustments and late com-pensatory postural adjustments when using an unstable shoe. There were no differences in standard deviation and maximum peak of anteroposterior displacement of CoP between measurements. From the experimental findings, one can conclude that the use of an unstable shoe leads to an increase in gastrocnemius activity with no increase in CoP displacement following an unexpected external perturbation.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this paper, a novel mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to solve the short-term hydro scheduling problem in the day-ahead electricity market, considering not only head-dependency, but also start/stop of units, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. Results from a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro energy systems are presented, showing that the proposedmixed-integer nonlinear approach is proficient. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process it is necessary the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status. Besides the new operation condition, it is important more accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of in short-term and very short-term methods. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Developmental Dysplasia of the Hip (DDH), also know as Congenital Dislocation of the Hip, is common in infants and children and may persist into adulthood. The radiographic interpretation is highly conditioned by appropriate patient positioning and image quality criteria. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate the value of radiographic evaluation of DDH. Through the retrospective analysis of 65 radiographs of the hips, only 2 (3.1%) female patients with 1-2 years of age presented radiographic findings of DDH. The inappropriate field size and the improper placement and size of the gonadal shields, were the most common errors observed.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper starts with the analysis of the unusual inherence mechanism, from two aspects: accumulating and human error. We put forward twelve factors affected the decision of the emergency treatment plan in practice and summarized the evaluation index system combining with literature data. Then we screened out eighteen representative indicators by used the FDM expert questionnaire in the first phase. Hereafter, we calculated the weight of evaluation index and sorted them by the FAHP expert questionnaire, and came up with the frame of the evaluation rule by combined with the experience. In the end, the evaluation principles are concluded.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVE: To extend an existing computer programme for the evaluation and design of shift schedules (BASS 3) by integrating workload as well as economic aspects. METHODS: The redesigned prototype BASS 4 includes a new module with a suitable and easily applicable screening method (EBA) for the assessment of the intensity of physical, emotional and cognitive workload components and their temporal patterns. Specified criterion functions based on these ratings allow for an adjustment of shift and rest duration according to the intensity of physical and mental workload. Furthermore, with regard to interactive effects both workload and temporal conditions, e.g. time of day, are taken into account. In a second new module, important economic aspects and criteria have been implemented. Different ergonomic solutions for scheduling problems can now also be evaluated with regard to their economic costs. RESULTS: The new version of the computer programme (BASS 4) can now simultaneously take into account numerous ergonomic, legal, agreed and economic criteria for the design and evaluation of working hours. CONCLUSIONS: BASS 4 can now be used as an instrument for the design and the evaluation of working hours with regard to legal, ergonomic and economic aspects at the shop floor as well as in administrative (e.g. health and safety inspection) and research problems.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.