Häiriöanalyysejä tehonkorotetun kiehutusvesivoimalaitoksen käytettävyyden varmistamiseksi

TVO suunnittelee reaktoritehon 10 %:n korotusta Olkiluoto 1 ja 2 -voimalaitoksille. Reaktoriteho nostetaan 2500 MW:sta 2750 MW:iin polttoaineen rikastusastetta nostamalla ja pääkiertovirtausta kasvattamalla. Samalla syöttövesivirtaus reaktoriin ja tuorehöyryvirtaus turpiineille kasvaa. Lauhteenpuhdistusjärjestelmän kapasiteettia ei voida kuitenkaan kasvattaa, joten massavirran lisäys toteutetaan ottamalla käyttöön korkeapainesivulauhteen eteenpäinpumppaus. Lauhteen esilämmityslinjojen, lauhteenpuhdistuksen ja syöttövesipumppujen massavirta säilyy siten nykyisellään. Muita merkittäviä tehonkorotukseen liittyviä laitosmuutoksia ovat pääkiertopumppujen uusinta ja korkeapaineturpiinin muutokset. Tehonkorotetun prosessin käytettävyyden varmistamiseksi tehdään häiriöanalyysejä Apros-prosessisimulointiohjelmistoa käyttäen. OL1 ja OL2 -laitoksista on olemassa validoitu 2500 MW:n laitosmalli, josta muokatulla 2750 MW:n laitosmallilla simuloinnit tehdään. Häiriöanalyysien avulla selvitetään säätöjärjestelmien kyky pitää prosessin tila hallinnassa ilman suojausautomaation laukeamista. Simuloituihin tapauksiin kuuluu pumppujen ja venttiilien vikaantumistapauksia sekä turpiini- ja reaktoripuolen pikasulku- ja osittaispikasulkutapauksia. Myös meriveden lämpötilan vaikutusta häiriötilanteisiin tarkastellaan. Analyysien perusteella voimalaitosten ohjaus- ja suojausautomaatio toimivat hyvin myös korotetulla teholla. Tehonkorotuksen jälkeiset suuremmat massavirrat aiheuttavat kuitenkin voimakkaampia reaktoripaineen ja -tehon vaihteluita varsinkin venttiilien sulkeutumistapauksissa. Simuloinnit osoittivat, että tehonkorotus 2500 MW:sta 2750 MW:iin on mahdollinen, mutta aiheuttaa pieniä muutoksia laitoksen suojausjärjestelmien laukaisurajoihin.

Revaloració de la fracció cel·lular de la sang de porc procedent d'escorxadors industrials

La sang de porc és un subproducte comestible que es genera als escorxadors industrials durant el procés d'obtenció de la canal. Aquest subproducte es caracteritza per presentar una elevada càrrega contaminant i, degut a l'elevat volum que es genera, és necessari trobar estratègies que permetin la seva revaloració i aprofitament, a la vegada que disminuïm la contaminació ambiental i les despeses que es deriven del seu processament abans de l'abocament. La fracció cel·lular (FC) constitueix el 40 % de la sang de porc i conté principalment l'hemoglobina (Hb), que representa al voltant del 90 % del contingut en proteïna d'aquesta fracció (un 35 % aproximadament). L'elevat percentatge en proteïna i en ferro, i les seves bones propietats funcionals fan que l'aprofitament d'aquest subproducte com a primera matèria o ingredient de la indústria alimentària sigui una alternativa molt útil a l'hora de reduir les despeses de la indústria càrnia, sempre que es resolguin els problemes de l'enfosquiment i dels sabors estranys que pot conferir la FC quan s'addiciona a productes alimentaris. Una altra possible utilització de la FC és aprofitar les propietats colorants de l'Hb o del grup hemo, com a colorant d'origen natural en diversos productes alimentaris. Els objectius del present treball eren, en primer lloc, determinar les millors condicions d'aplicació del procés de conservació de la FC mitjançant la deshidratació per atomització i caracteritzar físico-químicament i microbiològica el concentrat d'Hb en pols. En segon lloc, avaluar l'eficàcia de diferents additius antioxidants i/o segrestants del ferro per prevenir l'enfosquiment que pateix la FC durant la deshidratació. En tercer lloc, aplicar tractaments d'altes pressions hidrostàtiques com a procés d'higienització i avaluar els efectes d'aquest tractament sobre la microbiota contaminant, el color i les propietats funcionals de la FC. Finalment, desenvolupar un procés d'obtenció d'hidrolitzats proteics descolorats a partir de l'Hb amb la finalitat d'utilitzar-los com a ingredients nutricionals i/o funcionals. La millor temperatura de deshidratació per atomització de la FC hemolitzada era 140ºC. La FC en pols presentava un contingut en humitat del 5,3 % i un percentatge de solubilitat proteica del 96 %. La deshidratació per atomització induïa canvis en l'estructura nativa de l'Hb i, per tant, un cert grau de desnaturalització que pot conduir a una disminució de les seves propietats funcionals. L'extracte sec de la FC en pols estava composat per un 94,6 % de proteïna, un 3 % de sals minerals i un 0,7 % de greix. Els valors CIE L*a*b* del color de la FC en pols eren força constants i reflectien el color vermell marró fosc d'aquesta, a causa de l'oxidació del ferro hèmic que es produeix durant la deshidratació. La càrrega contaminant de la FC fresca de la sang de porc era força elevada i el tractament d'hemòlisi amb ultrasons i la centrifugació posterior no produïen una reducció significativa de la microbiota contaminant, obtenint un producte amb uns recomptes microbiològics de l'ordre de 106 ufc·mL-1. La deshidratació per atomització produïa una disminució d'una unitat logarítmica dels recomptes totals de la FC hemolitzada. Tanmateix, el producte en pols encara reflectia l'elevada contaminació de la primera matèria, fet que condiciona negativament la seva utilització com a ingredient alimentari, a no ser que es millorin les condicions de recollida de la sang a l'escorxador o que aquesta o la FC es sotmeti a algun tractament d'higienització prèviament a la deshidratació. Les isotermes de sorció a 20ºC de la FC en pols tenien forma sigmoïdal i una histèresi estreta i llarga. L'equació GAB és un bon model matemàtic per ajustar les dades de sorció obtingudes experimentalment i determinar la isoterma d'adsorció de la FC deshidratada per atomització. El percentatge d'humitat de la FC deshidratada a 140ºC es corresponia a un valor d'aw a 20 ºC d'aproximadament el 0,16. Tenint en compte que estava per sota dels valors d'aw corresponents a la capa monomolecular, es pot garantir la conservació a temperatura ambient del producte, sempre que s'envasi en recipients tancats que no permetin l'entrada d'humitat de l'exterior. De l'estudi de la possible estabilització del color de la FC deshidratada per atomització mitjançant l'addició d'antioxidants i/o segrestants de ferro, es va observar que només l'àcid ascòrbic, la glucosa, l'àcid nicotínic i la nicotinamida, tenien efectes positius sobre el color del producte en pols. L'ascòrbic i la glucosa no milloraven la conservació del color de l'Hb però disminuïen l'enfosquiment que es produeix durant la deshidratació, amb la qual cosa es pot obtenir un producte en pols de color marró més clar. L'addició de dextrina o L-cisteïna no disminuïa l'enfosquiment ni evitava el canvi de color de l'Hb. L'àcid nicotínic i la nicotinamida protegien el color de l'Hb durant el procés de deshidratació i l'emmagatzematge de la FC en pols. Les millors condicions d'aplicació del tractament amb altes pressions hidrostàtiques (HHP) sobre la FC eren 400 MPa, a 20ºC, durant 15 minuts, perquè produïen una millora significativa de la qualitat microbiològica, no afectaven negativament al color, no comprometien gaire la solubilitat proteica l'Hb i, malgrat que produïen un augment de la viscositat, la FC romania fluida després del tractament. Aquest tractament permetia una reducció de la microbiota contaminant de la FC d'entre 2 i 3 unitats logarítmiques. L'aplicació de l'alta pressió i la posterior deshidratació per atomització permetien obtenir un producte en pols amb recomptes totals de l'ordre de 2,8 unitats logarítmiques. El color de la FC pressuritzada en pols era igual que el de la FC control deshidratada, perquè ambdues mostres presentaven la mateixa susceptibilitat a l'oxidació del grup hemo produïda per la deshidratació. L'alta pressió incrementava la susceptibilitat de l'Hb als efectes desnaturalitzants de la deshidratació, fonamentalment a pH 7 (PIE), ja que es va observar una disminució de la solubilitat proteica a pH neutre després dels 2 processos tecnològics. La FC en pols presentava una màxima capacitat escumant al PIE de l'Hb. L'aplicació del tractament HHP produïa una disminució de la capacitat escumant de la FC en pols, però no tenia efectes negatius sobre l'estabilitat de l'escuma formada. Tampoc es van observar efectes negatius del tractament HHP sobre l'activitat emulsionant de l'Hb. La màxima activitat emulsionant de l'Hb s'aconseguia amb una concentració de FC en pols de l'1,5 % a pH 7 i de l'1 % a pH 4,5. Les pastes obtingudes per escalfament de la FC presentaven característiques molt diferenciades depenent del pH. A pH neutre es formaven unes pastes dures i consistents, mentre que a pH àcid les pastes eren poc consistents, molt adhesives i més elàstiques que les anteriors. Aquestes tenien una capacitat de retenció d'aigua molt superior que les de pH 7, en les quals l'aigua quedava retinguda per capil·laritat. La textura i capacitat de retenció d'aigua de les pastes tampoc eren afectades pel tractament HHP. El tractament HHP incrementava l'activitat de la Tripsina sobre l'Hb quan el substrat i l'enzim es tractaven conjuntament i afavoria el procés d'obtenció d'hidrolitzats descolorats a partir de la FC, la qual cosa permetia assolir el mateix grau de descoloració amb una dosi d'enzim inferior. El tractament d'hidròlisi de la FC amb la utilització combinada de Tripsina seguida d'un tractament amb Pepsina permetia l'obtenció d'un hidrolitzat proteic d'Hb descolorat i hidrolitzava completament la globina, donant lloc a 2 pèptids de 10,8 i 7,4 KDa. Val a dir que també produïa un 60 80 % de nitrogen soluble en TCA, constituït fonamentalment per pèptids petits i aminoàcids lliures. Els hidrolitzats trípsics i pèpsics d'Hb, obtinguts a partir de FC no pressuritzada i deshidratats per atomització a 180ºC, eren de color blanc i tenien un contingut en humitat del 4,7 %, un 84,2 % de proteïna i 9,7 % de sals minerals. El procés d'hidròlisi permetia una reducció considerable de la contaminació de la FC, obtenint un producte en pols amb uns recomptes totals de l'ordre de 102-103 ufc·g-1. Pel que fa a la funcionalitat dels hidrolitzats d'Hb deshidratats per atomització, aquests presentaven una elevada solubilitat proteica a pH 5 i 7 i romanien solubles després d'un escalfament a 80ºC durant 30 min. Tanmateix, aquesta hidròlisi afectava molt negativament la capacitat de mantenir escumes estables i l'activitat emulsionant.

New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks

The aim of this paper is to explore the use of both an Eulerian and system-centered method of storm track diagnosis applied to a wide range of meteorological fields at multiple levels to provide a range of perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter transient motions and to give new insight into the storm track organization and behavior. The data used are primarily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses project extended with operational analyses to the period 1979-2000. This is supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Goddard Earth Observing System 1 reanalyses. The range of fields explored include the usual mean sea level pressure and the lower- and upper-tropospheric height, meridional wind, vorticity, and temperature, as well as the potential vorticity (PV) on a 330-K isentropic surface (PV330) and potential temperature on a PV = 2 PVU surface (theta(PV2)). As well as reporting the primary analysis based on feature tracking, the standard Eulerian 2-6-day bandpass filtered variance analysis is also reported and contrasted with the tracking diagnostics. To enable the feature points to be identified as extrema for all the chosen fields, a planetary wave background structure is removed at each data time. The bandpass filtered variance derived from the different fields yield a rich picture of the nature and comparative magnitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and of the Siberian and Mediterranean candidates for storm tracks. The feature tracking allows the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities to be considered seperately. The analysis indicates that anticyclonic features are generally much weaker with less coherence than the cyclonic systems. Cyclones and features associated with them are shown to have much greater coherence and give tracking diagnostics that create a vivid storm track picture that includes the aspects highlighted by the variances as well as highlighting aspects that are not readily available from Eulerian studies. In particular, the upper-tropospheric features as shown by negative theta(PV2), for example, occur in a band spiraling around the hemisphere from the subtropical North Atlantic eastward to the high latitudes of the same ocean basin. Lower-troposphere storm tracks occupy more limited longitudinal sectors, with many of the individual storms possibly triggered from the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the spiral band of activity.

A case study of boundary layer ventilation by convection and coastal processes

It is often assumed that ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer is weak in the absence of fronts, but is this always true? In this paper we investigate the processes responsible for ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer during a nonfrontal day that occurred on 9 May 2005 using the UK Met Office Unified Model. Pollution sources are represented by the constant emission of a passive tracer everywhere over land. The ventilation processes observed include shallow convection, turbulent mixing followed by large-scale ascent, a sea breeze circulation and coastal outflow. Vertical distributions of tracer are validated qualitatively with AMPEP (Aircraft Measurement of chemical Processing Export fluxes of Pollutants over the UK) CO aircraft measurements and are shown to agree impressively well. Budget calculations of tracers are performed in order to determine the relative importance of these ventilation processes. Coastal outflow and the sea breeze circulation were found to ventilate 26% of the boundary layer tracer by sunset of which 2% was above 2 km. A combination of coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing and large-scale ascent ventilated 46% of the boundary layer tracer, of which 10% was above 2 km. Finally, coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing, large-scale ascent and shallow convection together ventilated 52% of the tracer into the free troposphere, of which 26% was above 2 km. Hence this study shows that significant ventilation of the boundary layer can occur in the absence of fronts (and thus during high-pressure events). Turbulent mixing and convection processes can double the amount of pollution ventilated from the boundary layer.

A new set of orthogonal patterns in weather and climate: Optimally interpolated patterns.

A new spectral-based approach is presented to find orthogonal patterns from gridded weather/climate data. The method is based on optimizing the interpolation error variance. The optimally interpolated patterns (OIP) are then given by the eigenvectors of the interpolation error covariance matrix, obtained using the cross-spectral matrix. The formulation of the approach is presented, and the application to low-dimension stochastic toy models and to various reanalyses datasets is performed. In particular, it is found that the lowest-frequency patterns correspond to largest eigenvalues, that is, variances, of the interpolation error matrix. The approach has been applied to the Northern Hemispheric (NH) and tropical sea level pressure (SLP) and to the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). Two main OIP patterns are found for the NH SLP representing respectively the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific pattern. The leading tropical SLP OIP represents the Southern Oscillation. For the Indian Ocean SST, the leading OIP pattern shows a tripole-like structure having one sign over the eastern and north- and southwestern parts and an opposite sign in the remaining parts of the basin. The pattern is also found to have a high lagged correlation with the Niño-3 index with 6-months lag.

Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model.

Indian summer monsoon variations could have affected the early Holocene woodland expansion in the Near East

Postglacial expansion of deciduous oak woodlands of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mountains, a major biome of the Near East, was delayed until the middle Holocene at ~6300 cal. yr BP. The current hypotheses explain this delay as a consequence of a regional aridity during the early Holocene, slow migration rates of forest trees, and/or a long history of land use and agro-pastoralism in this region. In the present paper, support is given to a hypothesis that suggests different precipitation seasonalities during the early Holocene compared with the late Holocene. The oak species of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mts, particularly Quercus brantii Lindl., are strongly dependent on spring precipitation for regeneration and are sensitive to a long dry season. Detailed analysis of modern atmospheric circulation patterns in SW Asia during the late spring suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) intensification can modify the amount of late spring and/or early summer rainfall in western/northwestern Iran and eastern Anatolia, which could in turn have controlled the development of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus deciduous oak woodlands. During the early Holocene, the northwestward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could have displaced the subtropical anticyclonic belt or associated high pressure ridges to the northwest. The latter could, in turn, have prevented the southeastward penetration of low pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and Black Sea regions. Such atmospheric configuration could have reduced or eliminated the spring precipitation creating a typical Mediterranean continental climate characterized by winter-dominated precipitation. This scenario highlights the complexity of biome response to climate system interactions in transitional climatic and biogeographical regions.

Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM

The Asian winter monsoon (AWM) response to the global warming was investigated through a long-term integration of the transient greenhouse warming with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. The physics of the response was studied through analyses of the impact of the global warming on the variations of the ocean and land contrast near the ground in the Asian and western Pacific region and the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere. Forcing of transient eddy activity on the zonal circulation over the Asian and western Pacific region was also analyzed. It is found that in the global warming scenario the winter northeasterlies along the Pacific coast of the Eurasian continent weaken systematically and significantly, and intensity of the AWM reduces evidently, but the AWM variances on the interannual and interdecadal scales are not affected much by the global warming. It is suggested that the global warming makes the climate over the most part of Asia to be milder with enhanced moisture in winter. In the global warming scenario the contrasts of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean become significantly smaller, northward and eastward shifts and weakening of the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere are found. As a consequence, the cold air in the AWM originating from the east Asian trough and high latitudes is less powerful. In addition, feedback of the transient activity also makes a considerable contribution to the higher-latitude shift of the jet stream over the North Pacific in the global warming scenario.

Northern winter climate change: assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere–troposphere coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on Northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess Northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the inter-model spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the inter-model spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Mechanisms for AMOC variability simulated by the NEMO model

We have investigated mechanisms for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability at 26.5° N (other than the Ekman component) that can be related to external forcings, in particular wind variability. Resolution dependence is studied using identical experiments with 1° and 1/4° NEMO model runs over 1960–2010. The analysis shows that much of the variability in the AMOC at 26° N can be related to the wind strength over the North Atlantic, through mechanisms lagged on different timescales. At ~ 1-year lag the January–June difference of mean sea level pressure between high and mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic explains 35–50% of the interannual AMOC variability (with negative correlation between wind strength and AMOC). At longer lead timescales ~ 4 years, strong (weak) winds over the northern North Atlantic (specifically linked to the NAO index) are followed by higher (lower) AMOC transport, but this mechanism only works in the 1/4° model. Analysis of the density correlations suggests an increase (decrease) in deep water formation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to be the cause. Therefore another 30% of the AMOC variability at 26° N can be related to density changes in the top 1000 m in the Labrador and Irminger seas occurring ~ 4 years earlier.

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1–40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land–sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Multiyear measurements of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers at the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region

This study analyzes and discusses data taken from oceanic and atmospheric measurements performed simultaneously at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area is one of the most dynamical frontal regions of the world ocean. Data were collected during four research cruises in the region once a year in consecutive years between 2004 and 2007. Very few studies have addressed the importance of studying the air-sea coupling at the BMC region. Lateral temperature gradients at the study region were as high as 0.3 degrees C km(-1) at the surface and subsurface. In the oceanic boundary layer, the vertical temperature gradient reached 0.08 degrees C m(-1) at 500 m depth. Our results show that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at the BMC region is modulated by the strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients present at the sea surface. The mean MABL structure is thicker over the warmside of the BMC where Brazil Current (BC) waters predominate. The opposite occurs over the coldside of the confluence where waters from the Malvinas (Falkland) Current (MC) are found. The warmside of the confluence presented systematically higher MABL top height compared to the coldside. This type of modulation at the synoptic scale is consistent to what happens in other frontal regions of the world ocean, where the MABL adjusts itself to modifications along the SST gradients. Over warm waters at the BMC region, the MABL static instability and turbulence were increased while winds at the lower portion of the MABL were strong. Over the coldside of the BC/MC front an opposite behavior is found: the MABL is thinner and more stable. Our results suggest that the sea-level pressure (SLP) was also modulated locally, together with static stability vertical mixing mechanism, by the surface condition during all cruises. SST gradients at the BMC region modulate the synoptic atmospheric pressure gradient. Postfrontal and prefrontal conditions produce opposite thermal advections in the MABL that lead to different pressure intensification patterns across the confluence.