Strategic behavior and price discovery

The paper analyzes the effects of strategic behavior by an insider in a price discovery process, akin to an information tatonnement, in the presence of a competitive informed sector. Such processes are used in the preopening period of continuous trading systems in several exchanges. It is found that the insider manipulates the market using a contrarian strategy in order to neutralize the effect of the trades of competitive informed agents. Furthermore, consistently with the empirical evidence available, we find that information revelation accelerates close to the opening, that the market price does not converge to the fundamental value no matter how many rounds the tatonnement has, and that the expected trading volume displays a U-shaped pattern. We also find that a market with a larger competitive sector (smaller insider) has an improved informational efficiency and an increased trading volume. The insider provides a public good (a lower informativeness of the price) for the competitive informed sector.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Economic rationality and ethical behavior

This paper argues that economic rationality and ethical behavior cannotbe reduced one to the other, casting doubts on the validity of formulaslike 'profit is ethical' or 'ethics pays'. In order to express ethicaldilemmas as opposing economic interest with ethical concerns, we proposea model of rational behavior that combines these two irreducible dimensions in an open but not arbitrary manner. Behaviors that are neither ethicalnor profitable are considered irrational (non-arbitrariness). However,behaviors that are profitable but unethical, and behaviors that are ethicalbut not profitable, are all treated as rational (openness). Combiningethical concerns with economic interest, ethical business is in turn anoptimal form of rationality between venality and sacrifice.Because every one prefers to communicate that he acts ethically, ethicalbusiness remains ambiguous until some economic interest is actuallysacrificed. We argue however that ethical business has an interest indemonstrating its consistency between communication and behavior by atransparent attitude. On the other hand, venal behaviors must remainconfidential to hide the corresponding lack of consistency. Thisdiscursive approach based on transparency and confidentiality helpsto further distinguish between ethical and unethical business behaviors.

Occurrence, biology and behavior of Liogenys fuscus Blanchard (Insecta, Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Due to the importance of some Pleurosticti Scarabaeidae as agricultural pests allied to information absence on the species that occur in Brazilian Central-West region, on studies occurrence, biology and behavior on this group of scarabs were conducted. Biology and behavioral studies started with Liogenys fuscus Blanchard, 1850 (Melolonthinae), a very common species and were developed in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul. Adult beetles were collected from light traps from February 2005 to January 2007, at the experimental farm of the Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul in Aquidauana (UEMS). In the laboratory adults were placed in plastic containers with soil with sprouts of Brachiaria decumbens Stapf (Poaceae). Eggs were transferred to a climatized chamber at 26 ± 1º C with a 12hourlight, 12hour darkness photoperiod cycle. Adult flight activity occurred in August and in September to December from 06:00 pm to 06:00 am, with the largest number of individuals flying from 07:00 to 10:00 pm. Eggs measured 1 x 1.5 mm and were laid individually or in groups in soil chambers; eggs were initially white and became yellow near hatching. The embryonic period lasted 14.3 days; first, second and third instars lasted 28.5, 48.8, and 68.2 days, respectively. The prepupal period lasted 120.2 days and the prepupa stayed inactive in soil. The mean duration of pupal stage was 27.5 days and the mean longevity of adults was 23.6 days. In laboratory the calling behavior between males and females was observed; copulation lasted, in mean, 25 minutes.

An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare andretirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life-cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger.

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Drug use and suicide attempts: the role of personality factors.

This study on suicide attempts is part of a large research project on dependent behavior in adolescents and young adults. 228 subjects aged 14-25 (107 "drug abusers," 121 controls) from the French speaking part of Switzerland were evaluated on the basis of a semi-structured interview (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview), enabling a DSM-IV diagnosis, and self-reports (SSS by Zuckermann, MMPI-2, IDI by Hirschfeld). 31.5% of "drug abuser" males and 41.2% of "drug abuser" females committed one or more suicide attempts. The results of a logistic regression show that the significant factor explaining suicide attempts in drug users is emotional reliance for males and experience-seeking for females.

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment

Much like cognitive abilities, emotional skills can have major effects on performance and economic outcomes. This paper studies the behavior of professionalsubjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment. Thesetting is a penalty shoot-out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournamentframework taking turns in a sequence of five penalty kicks each. As the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin flip, the treatment and control groups are determined via explicit randomization. Therefore, absent any psychological effects, both teams should have the same probability of winning regardless of the kicking order. Yet, we find a systematic first-kicker advantage. Using data on 2,731 penalty kicks from 262 shoot-outs for a three decade period, we find that teams kicking first win the penalty shoot-out 60.5% of the time. A dynamic panel data analysis shows that the psychological mechanism underlying this result arises from the asymmetry in the partial score. As most kicks are scored, kicking first typically means having the opportunity to lead in the partial score, whereas kicking second typically means lagging in the score and having the opportunity to, at most, get even. Having a worse prospect than the opponent hinders subjects' performance.Further, we also find that professionals are self-aware of their own psychological effects. When a recent change in regulations gives winners of the coin toss the chance to choose the kicking order, they rationally react to it by systematically choosing to kick first. A survey of professional players reveals that when asked to explain why they prefer to kick first, they precisely identify the psychological mechanism for which we find empirical support in the data: they want to lead in the score inorder to put pressure on the opponent.

Health-related quality of life in migrant preschool children.

BACKGROUND: Minority groups have a lower health-related quality of life (HRQOL), but there is little information if this finding also applies to children. In this study, we compared HRQOL between young children with and without migrant parents. METHODS: Two cross-sectional studies of culturally diverse preschool populations in Switzerland: Ballabeina (40 preschools, 258 girls and 232 boys aged 4 to 6 years) and Youp'là Bouge (58 child care centers, 453 girls and 522 boys aged 2 to 4 years). Most children were born in Switzerland (Ballabeina: 92.3%; Youp'là Bouge: 93.7%). Number of migrant parents was considered as the main exposure. HRQOL was measured using the 23-item Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory. RESULTS: Children of migrant parents had a significantly lower HRQOL total score (mean ± SD, Ballabeina: 84.2 ± 9.1; 82.7 ± 9.6 and 81.7 ± 11.7 for children with none, one or two migrant parents, respectively; Youp'là Bouge: 83.8 ± 8.6; 82.9 ± 9.5; 80.7 ± 11.7, all p < 0.05). Similar results were found in Ballabeina and Youp'là Bouge for social, school and physical functioning (all p < 0.05), but not for emotional functioning. The differences in HRQOL measures were partly mediated by children's place of birth, parental education, paternal occupational level, children's BMI, screen time and physical activity in one study (Ballabeina), but not in the other (Youp'là Bouge). CONCLUSION: In preschoolers, children of migrant parents have lower HRQOL than children of non-migrant parents. These differences are only partly mediated by other sociocultural characteristics or lifestyle behavior. These families may need assistance to prevent further inequalities.

CRIMINAL JUSTICE, VICTIM SUPPORT CENTERS, AND THE EMOTIONAL WELLBEING OF CRIME VICTIMS

SUMMARY (Français au-dessous)After the Second World War, the role of the victim in criminal conflict became an objectof interest for academics. But it was only in the 1960s that the importance of providingprotection and assistance to crime victims was highlighted in particular by the victims'movement, which inaugurated a new era of criminal justice in systems throughout the world.Moving beyond just the role of controlling crime and punishing the offender, the criminaljustice system also began to contribute to the victims' rehabilitation and to help the victim tomove on from the event psychologically and emotionally.Although some criminological research has been conducted, to date the effect that thecriminal justice system and victim support services have on the well-being of crime victims isstill uncertain.The current study sought to understand better the healing process of victims of crime, thepotential consequences of their participation on the criminal justice system, and the supportof victim centers. Moreover, it aimed to find out whether the existence of a Victim SupportAct would change the treatment that the victim receives in the criminal justice system. Thusthis research was conducted based in two countries - Switzerland and Brazil - where theoutcome of the victims' movement on the criminal justice system was different, as was theparticipation of the victim in the criminal justice system and the government's provision ofsupport.In order to conduct this research we employed the qualitative method, which is the mostefficient to gather sensitive information. Interviews with crime victims were the main sourceof information. Hearing observation and document research were used as complementarysources.The results of this research show that victims who have contact with the criminal justicesystem and victim services are not more likely to recover than those who had no contact. Thisis to say, the support offered has no major effects; the influence of the criminal justice systemand the victim support services in the emotional well-being of crime victims is rather neutral.However, considering that the sample is not representative, findings are not expected to begeneralized. Instead, findings may give insight to practitioners or to future criminal justicepolicy makers, suggesting what may work to improve the emotional well-being of crimevictims, as well as suggesting further studies.________________________________________________________________________________RÉSUMÉAprès la deuxième guerre mondiale, le rôle de la victime est devenu un objet d'intérêtpour les académiciens. Par contre, c'est seulement dans les années 60 que l'importance defournir de la protection et de l'appui aux victimes d'infractions a été accentuée, en particulierpar un mouvement ― victims' mouvement ―, qui a inauguré un nouveau temps dans lajustice pénale des systèmes juridiques du monde entier. A part la fonction de contrôler lecrime et de punir le délinquant, le système de justice pénale joue également un rôle dans laréhabilitation des victimes.Malgré la réalisation de plusieurs recherches criminologiques sur ce sujet, les effets que lesystème de la justice pénale et les centres d'aides aux victimes ont sur le bien-être desvictimes d'infractions est encore incertain.Ainsi cette étude cherche à mieux comprendre le processus de réhabilitation des victimesd'infraction, les conséquences de leur participation dans le système de justice pénale ainsique la portée de l'appui des centres d'aide. De plus, l'étude vise à découvrir si l'existenced'une loi d'aide aux victimes, particulièrement la Loi d'Aide aux Victimes d'InfractionsLAVI, est susceptible de changer le traitement que la victime reçoit dans le système de lajustice pénale. Pour cela, elle a été conduite dans deux pays - la Suisse et le Brésil - où lesconséquences du mouvement des victimes sur le système de la justice pénale a eu undéveloppement différent; il en va de même pour la participation de la victime dans laprocédure pénale et pour l'appui offert par l'Etat.Cette étude utilise la méthode qualitative qui est la plus efficace pour le recueild'informations sensibles. La plus importante source des données sont les interviews avec lesvictimes. L'observation des audiences et l'analyse de documents ont été utilisés en tant quesources d'information complementáire.Les résultats de cette recherche montrent que les victimes qui ont porté plainte et qui ontreçu l'appui des centres d'aides ne sont pas mieux rétablies que celles qui n'ont rien fait. C'estainsi que nous avons conclu que les services offerts n'ont aucune influence dans ce processus.Cependant, considérant que notre échantillon n'est pas représentatif, il n'est pas possible degénéraliser nos résultats. Néanmoins, ceux-ci peuvent éclairer les praticiens ou les futursdécideurs politiques de la justice pénale, suggérant ce qui peut fonctionner pour lerétablissement des victimes d'infraction, aussi bien que suggérer d'autres études.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Imitation of succesful behavior in Cournot markets

In an experimental standard Cournot Oligopoly we test the importance ofmodels of behavior characterized by imitation of succesful behavior. Wefind that the players appear to the rather reluctant to imitate.

First description of reproductive behavior of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx rutilans (Rambur) (Odonata, Polythoridae)

Polythoridae comprise a widespread group of species in the New World tropics, but little is known about their behavior or life history. Here, we described the reproductive behavior of Amazonian Chalchopteryx rutilans, using mark-recapture techniques. Males were resident and territorial, though we found disputes (complex flight manoeuvres) to be rare. Trunks (rotting wood) were important to male persistence in sites, as these are the locations preferred by females for oviposition. The mating system of C. rutilans may be comparable to the resource limitation category, described by Conrad & Pritchard (1992), where males cannot control female access to oviposition sites. So, female choice becomes important and apparently, the observed displays (in which males flash the coppery coloration of their hind wings) may be related to attraction of females to territories, as in a lek system.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.