Infrastructure (Resilience-oriented) Modelling Language: I®ML A proposal for modelling infrastructures and their connections

The modelling of critical infrastructures (CIs) is an important issue that needs to be properly addressed, for several reasons. It is a basic support for making decisions about operation and risk reduction. It might help in understanding high-level states at the system-of-systems layer, which are not ready evident to the organisations that manage the lower level technical systems. Moreover, it is also indispensable for setting a common reference between operator and authorities, for agreeing on the incident scenarios that might affect those infrastructures. So far, critical infrastructures have been modelled ad-hoc, on the basis of knowledge and practice derived from less complex systems. As there is no theoretical framework, most of these efforts proceed without clear guides and goals and using informally defined schemas based mostly on boxes and arrows. Different CIs (electricity grid, telecommunications networks, emergency support, etc) have been modelled using particular schemas that were not directly translatable from one CI to another. If there is a desire to build a science of CIs it is because there are some observable commonalities that different CIs share. Up until now, however, those commonalities were not adequately compiled or categorized, so building models of CIs that are rooted on such commonalities was not possible. This report explores the issue of which elements underlie every CI and how those elements can be used to develop a modelling language that will enable CI modelling and, subsequently, analysis of CI interactions, with a special focus on resilience

A modelling language for the resilience assessment of networked systems of systems

Systems of Systems (SoS) present challenging features and existing tools result often inadequate for their analysis, especially for heteregeneous networked infrastructures. Most accident scenarios in networked systems cannot be addressed by a simplistic black or white (i.e. functioning or failed) approach. Slow deviations from nominal operation conditions may cause degraded behaviours that suddenly end up into unexpected malfunctioning, with large portions of the network affected. In this paper,we present a language for modelling networked SoS. The language makes it possible to represent interdependencies of various natures, e.g. technical, organizational and human. The representation of interdependencies is based on control relationships that exchange physical quantities and related information. The language also makes it possible the identification of accident scenarios, by representing the propagation of failure events throughout the network. The results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of those mechanisms and measures that contribute to the overall resilience, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. The presented modelling methodology is general enough to be applied in combination with already existing system analysis techniques, such as risk assessment, dependability and performance evaluation

A multinational SDI-based system to facilitate disaster risk management in the Andean Community

A useful strategy for improving disaster risk management is sharing spatial data across different technical organizations using shared information systems. However, the implementation of this type of system requires a large effort, so it is difficult to find fully implemented and sustainable information systems that facilitate sharing multinational spatial data about disasters, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we describe a pioneer system for sharing spatial information that we developed for the Andean Community. This system, called SIAPAD (Andean Information System for Disaster Prevention and Relief), integrates spatial information from 37 technical organizations in the Andean countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru). SIAPAD was based on the concept of a thematic Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) and includes a web application, called GEORiesgo, which helps users to find relevant information with a knowledge-based system. In the paper, we describe the design and implementation of SIAPAD together with general conclusions and future directions which we learned as a result of this work.

Resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on structural and dynamic interdependencies

Critical infrastructures support everyday activities in modern societies, facilitating the exchange of services and quantities of various nature. Their functioning is the result of the integration of diverse technologies, systems and organizations into a complex network of interconnections. Benefits from networking are accompanied by new threats and risks. In particular, because of the increased interdependency, disturbances and failures may propagate and render unstable the whole infrastructure network. This paper presents a methodology of resilience analysis of networked systems of systems. Resilience generalizes the concept of stability of a system around a state of equilibrium, with respect to a disturbance and its ability of preventing, resisting and recovery. The methodology provides a tool for the analysis of off-equilibrium conditions that may occur in a single system and propagate through the network of dependencies. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage of the analysis is qualitative. It identifies the resilience scenarios, i.e. the sequence of events, triggered by an initial disturbance, which include failures and the system response. The second stage is quantitative. The most critical scenarios can be simulated, for the desired parameter settings, in order to check if they are successfully handled, i.e recovered to nominal conditions, or they end into the network failure. The proposed methodology aims at providing an effective support to resilience-informed design.

Resilience in Cloud Computing for Critical Systems. Resilience, Dependability, Reliability in the use of Cloud Computing in Critical Systems in Public Organizations.

La informática se está convirtiendo en la quinta utilidad (gas, agua, luz, teléfono) en parte debido al impacto de Cloud Computing en las mayorías de las organizaciones. Este uso de informática es usada por cada vez más tipos de sistemas, incluidos Sistemas Críticos. Esto tiene un impacto en la complejidad internad y la fiabilidad de los sistemas de la organización y los que se ofrecen a los clientes. Este trabajo investiga el uso de Cloud Computing por sistemas críticos, centrándose en las dependencias y especialmente en la fiabilidad de estos sistemas. Se han presentado algunos ejemplos de su uso, y aunque su utilización en sistemas críticos no está extendido, se presenta cual puede llegar a ser su impacto. El objetivo de este trabajo es primero definir un modelo que pueda representar de una forma cuantitativa las interdependencias en fiabilidad y interdependencia para las organizaciones que utilicen estos sistemas, y aplicar este modelo en un sistema crítico del campo de sanidad y mostrar sus resultados. Los conceptos de “macro-dependability” y “micro-dependability” son introducidos en el modelo para la definición de interdependencia y para analizar la fiabilidad de sistemas que dependen de otros sistemas. ABSTRACT With the increasing utilization of Internet services and cloud computing by most organizations (both private and public), it is clear that computing is becoming the 5th utility (along with water, electricity, telephony and gas). These technologies are used for almost all types of systems, and the number is increasing, including Critical Infrastructure systems. Even if Critical Infrastructure systems appear not to rely directly on cloud services, there may be hidden inter-dependencies. This is true even for private cloud computing, which seems more secure and reliable. The critical systems can began in some cases with a clear and simple design, but evolved as described by Egan to "rafted" networks. Because they are usually controlled by one or few organizations, even when they are complex systems, their dependencies can be understood. The organization oversees and manages changes. These CI systems have been affected by the introduction of new ICT models like global communications, PCs and the Internet. Even virtualization took more time to be adopted by Critical systems, due to their strategic nature, but once that these technologies have been proven in other areas, at the end they are adopted as well, for different reasons such as costs. A new technology model is happening now based on some previous technologies (virtualization, distributing and utility computing, web and software services) that are offered in new ways and is called cloud computing. The organizations are migrating more services to the cloud; this will have impact in their internal complexity and in the reliability of the systems they are offering to the organization itself and their clients. Not always this added complexity and associated risks to their reliability are seen. As well, when two or more CI systems are interacting, the risks of one can affect the rest, sharing the risks. This work investigates the use of cloud computing by critical systems, and is focused in the dependencies and reliability of these systems. Some examples are presented together with the associated risks. A framework is introduced for analysing the dependability and resilience of a system that relies on cloud services and how to improve them. As part of the framework, the concepts of micro and macro dependability are introduced to explain the internal and external dependability on services supplied by an external cloud. A pharmacovigilance model system has been used for framework validation.

Building resilience to water scarcity in Southern Spain: A case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Don?ana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods?analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights?that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and evenmore so under an increased water scarcity scenario.

Human Factor in Resilience Systems

This paper shows the importance of a holistic comprehension of the Earth as a living planet, where man inhabits and is exposed to environmental incidences of different nature. The aim of the paper here summarized is a reflection on all these concepts and scientific considerations related to the important role of men in the handling of natural hazards. Our Planet is an unstable and dynamical system highly sensitive to initial conditions, as proposed by Chaos theory (González-Miranda 2004); it is a complex organic whole, which responds to minimal variations which can affect several natural phenomena such as plate tectonics, solar flares, fluid turbulences, landscape formation, forest fires, growth and migration of populations and biological evolution. This is known as the “butterfly effect” (Lorenz 1972), which means that a small change of the system causes a chain of events leading to large-scale unpredictable consequences. The aim of this work is dwelling on the importance of the knowledge of these natural and catastrophic geological, biological and human systems so much sensible to equilibrium conditions, to prevent, avoid and mend their effects, and to face them in a resilient way

Spatial Planning Measures for the Enhancement of Urban Resilience Against Flooding Risk

Dentro del campo de la ciudad como lugar se analiza el concepto de planificación territorial y planeamiento espacial. Flooding is one of the main risks associated to many urban settlements in Spain and, indeed, elsewhere. The location of cities has traditionally ignored this type of risk as other locational criteria prevailed (communications, crop yields, etc.). Defence engineering has been the customary way to offset the risk but, nowadays, the opportunity costs of engineering works in urban areas has highlighted the interest of “soft measures” based on prevention. Early warning systems plus development planning controls rank among the most favoured ones. This paper reflects the results of a recent EU-financed research project on alternative measures geared to the enhancement of urban resilience against flooding. A city study in Spain is used as example of those measures.

An Ant Colony System adaptation to deal with accessibility issues after a disaster

One of the main problems relief teams face after a natural or man-made disaster is how to plan rural road repair work tasks to take maximum advantage of the limited available financial and human resources. Previous research focused on speeding up repair work or on selecting the location of health centers to minimize transport times for injured citizens. In spite of the good results, this research does not take into account another key factor: survivor accessibility to resources. In this paper we account for the accessibility issue, that is, we maximize the number of survivors that reach the nearest regional center (cities where economic and social activity is concentrated) in a minimum time by planning which rural roads should be repaired given the available financial and human resources. This is a combinatorial problem since the number of connections between cities and regional centers grows exponentially with the problem size, and exact methods are no good for achieving an optimum solution. In order to solve the problem we propose using an Ant Colony System adaptation, which is based on ants? foraging behavior. Ants stochastically build minimal paths to regional centers and decide if damaged roads are repaired on the basis of pheromone levels, accessibility heuristic information and the available budget. The proposed algorithm is illustrated by means of an example regarding the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and its performance is compared with another metaheuristic, GRASP.

Irrigation efficiency and water-policy implications for river-basin resilience

Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrological variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic productivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Ever-tighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox. In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated-area expansion using "saved water", efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity. However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, southwestern US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.

Respiratory microbiota resistance and resilience to pulmonary exacerbation and subsequent antimicrobial intervention

This study was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/H019456/1) to CJvdG, by the Wellcome Trust (WT 098051) to AWW and JP for sequencing costs, and by The Anna Trust (KB2008) to KDB. AWW and The Rowett Institute of Nutrition and Health, University of Aberdeen, receive core funding support from the Scottish Government Rural and Environmental Science and Analysis Service (RESAS). We thank Paul Scott, Richard Rance and the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute’s sequencing team for generating 16S rRNA gene sequence data.

Using resilience to predict the effects of disturbance

Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Office of Naval Research (N00014-13-1-0696). We thank C Asher for her comments on an earlier version of this manuscript.

Long term resilience decline in plant ecosystems across the Danian Dan-C2 hyperthermal event, Boltysh crater, Ukraine

Acknowledgements and Funding The authors are extremely grateful for the receipt of NERC award NE/ D005043/1, which funded the initial Boltysh impact crater study. R. Spicer and J. Leake are thanked for interesting discussions. C. Wellman, W. Gosling and M. Donovan are thanked for constructively critical reviews of the paper. Scientific editing by Quentin Crowley

The impact of model detail on power grid resilience measures

Peer reviewed

Resilience through Adversity: A narrative case study of students' experiences of expulsion from school

Expulsion from school is life changing. This single event can alter the trajectory of a student's life--for better or for worse. How life changes is unique for each individual student. Risk and protective factors that impact an individual student's resilience determine the level of positive or negative outcomes experienced as a result of expulsion. Educators have the opportunity to take advantage of this disruption in students' education to improve the trajectory of students' lives. However, without thoughtful intervention from caring educators, this interruption in students' education may have an irreparable destructive impact on students' future. The purpose of this study was to understand the expulsion experience from the point of view of the student in order to represent this critical stakeholder group in future policy and program development, implementation, and decision-making. Students' narratives are a means for members of the educational community to access students' experiences and perceptions in order to understand the impact of expulsion on students' lives. Students' perspectives are presented through thick description in this narrative case study. The experience of these eight students is evidence that expulsion can change students' lives in a positive way. Knowing this, responsible educators must develop interventions for expelled students that channel the positive life-changing potential of this experience. Educators must develop interventions focused on bringing forth protective factors that are documented to increase resilience and to make students less susceptible to the risks inherent in removing them from school. Recommendations for educators and policy-makers are presented to assist educators in preventing expulsion and improving educational and socio-emotional outcomes for expelled students.