Optimal static and sequential design : a critical review

The aim of this thesis is to review and augment the theory and methods of optimal experimental design. In Chapter I the scene is set by considering the possible aims of an experimenter prior to an experiment, the statistical methods one might use to achieve those aims and how experimental design might aid this procedure. It is indicated that, given a criterion for design, a priori optimal design will only be possible in certain instances and, otherwise, some form of sequential procedure would seem to be indicated. In Chapter 2 an exact experimental design problem is formulated mathematically and is compared with its continuous analogue. Motivation is provided for the solution of this continuous problem, and the remainder of the chapter concerns this problem. A necessary and sufficient condition for optimality of a design measure is given. Problems which might arise in testing this condition are discussed, in particular with respect to possible non-differentiability of the criterion function at the design being tested. Several examples are given of optimal designs which may be found analytically and which illustrate the points discussed earlier in the chapter. In Chapter 3 numerical methods of solution of the continuous optimal design problem are reviewed. A new algorithm is presented with illustrations of how it should be used in practice. It is shown that, for reasonably large sample size, continuously optimal designs may be approximated to well by an exact design. In situations where this is not satisfactory algorithms for improvement of this design are reviewed. Chapter 4 consists of a discussion of sequentially designed experiments, with regard to both the philosophies underlying, and the application of the methods of, statistical inference. In Chapter 5 we criticise constructively previous suggestions for fully sequential design procedures. Alternative suggestions are made along with conjectures as to how these might improve performance. Chapter 6 presents a simulation study, the aim of which is to investigate the conjectures of Chapter 5. The results of this study provide empirical support for these conjectures. In Chapter 7 examples are analysed. These suggest aids to sequential experimentation by means of reduction of the dimension of the design space and the possibility of experimenting semi-sequentially. Further examples are considered which stress the importance of the use of prior information in situations of this type. Finally we consider the design of experiments when semi-sequential experimentation is mandatory because of the necessity of taking batches of observations at the same time. In Chapter 8 we look at some of the assumptions which have been made and indicate what may go wrong where these assumptions no longer hold.

Active tuberculosis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis latent infection in patients with HIV/AIDS

Objectives Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important disease associated with HIV infection and AIDS in Brazil, even in a setting of free access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and TB treatment. In previous studies, isoniazid therapy (IT) for latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (LIMTb) was found to reduce the risk of TB by 62% in patients with a tuberculin test (TT)> 5 mm. The objectives of this study were to investigate the occurrence of TB, the prevalence of LIMTb and the coverage of the TT and IT, and to estimate the number of missed opportunities to prevent TB in patients with HIV/AIDS. Methods A random sample of patients with HIV/AIDS was selected; data from the medical files were obtained, and a TT was performed in consenting subjects. Results In the 203 subjects included in the study, TB occurrence was 13.3%, LIMTb prevalence was 20% and the coverage of the TT and IT was 59.2 and 55%, respectively. Patients with TB had a lower nadir CD4 cell count, but their CD4 recovery was comparable to that of non-TB patients. Patients with LIMTb always had a higher CD4 cell count. Conclusions By expanding the coverage of the TT and IT to nearly 100%, we could more than double the number of prevented cases of TB. TB prevention programmes must be reinforced to reduce the number of missed opportunities for diagnosis, and IT must be improved to reduce TB among patients with HIV/AIDS. Empowering patients with knowledge about TB, the preventive role of IT and the need for an annual TT may be the best way of lowing rates of TB in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Mathematical methods for spatially cohesive reserve design

The problem of designing spatially cohesive nature reserve systems that meet biodiversity objectives is formulated as a nonlinear integer programming problem. The multiobjective function minimises a combination of boundary length, area and failed representation of the biological attributes we are trying to conserve. The task is to reserve a subset of sites that best meet this objective. We use data on the distribution of habitats in the Northern Territory, Australia, to show how simulated annealing and a greedy heuristic algorithm can be used to generate good solutions to such large reserve design problems, and to compare the effectiveness of these methods.

Working in IT projects – Options and Limits of Work Design

Flexible forms of work like project work are gaining importance in industry and services. Looking at the research on project work, the vast majority of present literature is on project management, but increasingly, problems concerning the quality of work and the efficiency of project teams become visible. The question now is how project work can be structured in order to simultaneously provide efficient and flexible work and healthy working conditions ensuring the development of human resources for a long time. Selected results of publicly funded research into project work will be presented based on case studies in 7 software development /IT consulting project teams (N=34). A set of different methods was applied: interviews with management/project managers, group interviews on work constraints, a monthly diary about well-being and critical incidences in the course of the project, and a final evaluation questionnaire on project outcomes focusing on economic and health aspects. Findings reveal that different types of projects exist with varying degree of team members’ autonomy and influence on work structuring. An effect of self-regulation on mental strain could not be found. The results emphasize, that contradicting requirements and insufficient organizational resources with respect to the work requirements lead to an increased work intensity or work obstruction. These contradicting requirements are identified as main drivers for generating stress. Finally, employees with high values on stress for more than 2 months have significantly higher exhaustion rates than those with only one month peaks. Structuring project work and taking into account the dynamics of project work, there is a need for an active role of the project team in contract negotiation or the detailed definition of work – this is not only a question of individual autonomy but of negotiation the range of option for work structuring. Therefore, along with the sequential definition of the (software) product, the working conditions need to be re-defined.

Towards a GIS-T database design and implementation for public transit planning: the case study of Dar-Es-salaam metropolitan city, Tanzania.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Computational design with flexible backbone sampling for protein remodeling and scaffolding of complex binding sites

Dissertation presented to obtain the Doutoramento (Ph.D.) degree in Biochemistry at the Instituto de Tecnologia Qu mica e Biol ogica da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY DUE TO AIDS: A STUDY OF BURDEN OF DISEASE AT A MUNICIPAL LEVEL

Introduction: The purpose of measuring the burden of disease involves aggregating morbidity and mortality components into a single indicator, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to measure how much and how people live and suffer the impact of a disease. Objective: To estimate the global burden of disease due to AIDS in a municipality of southern Brazil. Methods: An ecological study was conducted in 2009 to examine the incidence and AIDS-related deaths among the population residing in the city of Tubarao, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Data from the Mortality Information System in the National Health System was used to calculate the years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality. The calculation was based on the difference between a standardized life expectancy and age at death, with a discount rate of 3% per year. Data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases were used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLD). The DALY was estimated by the sum of YLL and YLD. Indicator rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants, distributed by age and gender. Results: A total of 131 records were examined, and a 572.5 DALYs were estimated, which generated a rate of 593.1 DALYs/100,000 inhabitants. The rate among men amounted to 780.7 DALYs/100,000, whereas among women the rate was 417.1 DALYs/100,000. The most affected age groups were 30-44 years for men and 60-69 years for women. Conclusion: The burden of disease due to AIDS in the city of Tubarao was relatively high when considering the global trend. The mortality component accounted for more than 90% of the burden of disease.

Algorithms and tools for in silico design of cell factories

PhD thesis in Bioengineering

AIDS prevention: consensus and dissension regarding the meaning

Aim: In Western Europe, HIV/AIDS prevention has been based on the provision of information intended to lead the public to voluntarily adapt their behaviour so as to avoid the risk of virus transmission. Whether conveyed in a written or oral form, the messages of prevention are essentially verbal. Sociolinguistic research confirms that, even within a given culture, the meaning attributed to lexical items varies. It was hypothesised that understandings of the terms used in HIV/AIDS prevention in French-speaking Switzerland would vary, and research was undertaken to identify the level and nature of this variation both between and among those who transmit (prevention providers) and those who receive (the public) the messages. Method/issue: All HIV/AIDS prevention material available in French-speaking Switzerland in 2004 was assembled and a corpus of 50 key documents identified. Two series of lexical items were generated from this corpus: one composed of technical terms potentially difficult to understand, and the other, of terms used in everyday language with implicit, and therefore potentially variable, meaning. The two lists of terms were investigated in qualitative interviews in stratified purposive samples of the general public (n=60) and prevention providers (n=30), using standard socio-linguistic methodology. A further quantitative study (CATI) in the general population (17 - 49 yrs.; n=500) investigated understandings of 15 key prevention terms found in the qualitative research to have been associated with high levels of dissension. Results/comments: Selected aspects of the results will be presented. In illustration: meanings attributed to the different terms in both the public and the providers varied. For example, when a relationship is described as "stable", this may be understood as implying exclusive sexual relations or long duration, with an interaction between the two traits; the term "sexual intercourse" may or may not be used to refer to oral sex; "making love" may or may not necessarily include an act of penetration; the pre-ejaculate is qualified by some as sperm, and by others not... Understanding of frequently used "technical" terms in prevention was far from universal; for example, around only a half of respondents understood the meaning of "safer sex". Degree of understanding of these terms was linked to education, whereas variability in meaning in everyday language was not linked to socio-economic variables. Discussion: Findings indicate the need for more awareness regarding the heterogeneity of meaning around the terms regularly used in prevention. Greater attention should be paid to the formulation of prevention messages, and providers should take precautions to ensure that the meanings they wish to convey are those perceived by the receivers of their messages. Wherever possible, terms used should be defined and meanings rendered explicit.

Development of Abutment Design Standards for Local Bridge Designs, Volume 1 of 3, Development of Design Methodology, August 2004

Several superstructure design methodologies have been developed for low volume road bridges by the Iowa State University Bridge Engineering Center. However, to date no standard abutment designs have been developed. Thus, there was a need to establish an easy to use design methodology in addition to generating generic abutment standards and other design aids for the more common substructure systems used in Iowa. The final report for this project consists of three volumes. The first volume (this volume) summarizes the research completed in this project. A survey of the Iowa County Engineers was conducted from which it was determined that while most counties use similar types of abutments, only 17 percent use some type of standard abutment designs or plans. A literature review revealed several possible alternative abutment systems for future use on low volume road bridges in addition to two separate substructure lateral load analysis methods. These consisted of a linear and a non-linear method. The linear analysis method was used for this project due to its relative simplicity and the relative accuracy of the maximum pile moment when compared to values obtained from the more complex non-linear analysis method. The resulting design methodology was developed for single span stub abutments supported on steel or timber piles with a bridge span length ranging from 20 to 90 ft and roadway widths of 24 and 30 ft. However, other roadway widths can be designed using the foundation design template provided. The backwall height is limited to a range of 6 to 12 ft, and the soil type is classified as cohesive or cohesionless. The design methodology was developed using the guidelines specified by the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials Standard Specifications, the Iowa Department of Transportation Bridge Design Manual, and the National Design Specifications for Wood Construction. The second volume introduces and outlines the use of the various design aids developed for this project. Charts for determining dead and live gravity loads based on the roadway width, span length, and superstructure type are provided. A foundation design template was developed in which the engineer can check a substructure design by inputting basic bridge site information. Tables published by the Iowa Department of Transportation that provide values for estimating pile friction and end bearing for different combinations of soils and pile types are also included. Generic standard abutment plans were developed for which the engineer can provide necessary bridge site information in the spaces provided. These tools enable engineers to design and detail county bridge substructures more efficiently. The third volume provides two sets of calculations that demonstrate the application of the substructure design methodology developed in this project. These calculations also verify the accuracy of the foundation design template. The printouts from the foundation design template are provided at the end of each example. Also several tables provide various foundation details for a pre-cast double tee superstructure with different combinations of soil type, backwall height, and pile type.

Development of Abutment Design Standards for Local Bridge Designs, Volume 3 of 3, Verification of Design Methodology, August 2004

Several superstructure design methodologies have been developed for low volume road bridges by the Iowa State University Bridge Engineering Center. However, to date no standard abutment designs have been developed. Thus, there was a need to establish an easy to use design methodology in addition to generating generic abutment standards and other design aids for the more common substructure systems used in Iowa. The final report for this project consists of three volumes. The first volume summarizes the research completed in this project. A survey of the Iowa County Engineers was conducted from which it was determined that while most counties use similar types of abutments, only 17 percent use some type of standard abutment designs or plans. A literature review revealed several possible alternative abutment systems for future use on low volume road bridges in addition to two separate substructure lateral load analysis methods. These consisted of a linear and a non-linear method. The linear analysis method was used for this project due to its relative simplicity and the relative accuracy of the maximum pile moment when compared to values obtained from the more complex non-linear analysis method. The resulting design methodology was developed for single span stub abutments supported on steel or timber piles with a bridge span length ranging from 20 to 90 ft and roadway widths of 24 and 30 ft. However, other roadway widths can be designed using the foundation design template provided. The backwall height is limited to a range of 6 to 12 ft, and the soil type is classified as cohesive or cohesionless. The design methodology was developed using the guidelines specified by the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials Standard Specifications, the Iowa Department of Transportation Bridge Design Manual, and the National Design Specifications for Wood Construction. The second volume introduces and outlines the use of the various design aids developed for this project. Charts for determining dead and live gravity loads based on the roadway width, span length, and superstructure type are provided. A foundation design template was developed in which the engineer can check a substructure design by inputting basic bridge site information. Tables published by the Iowa Department of Transportation that provide values for estimating pile friction and end bearing for different combinations of soils and pile types are also included. Generic standard abutment plans were developed for which the engineer can provide necessary bridge site information in the spaces provided. These tools enable engineers to design and detail county bridge substructures more efficiently. The third volume (this volume) provides two sets of calculations that demonstrate the application of the substructure design methodology developed in this project. These calculations also verify the accuracy of the foundation design template. The printouts from the foundation design template are provided at the end of each example. Also several tables provide various foundation details for a pre-cast double tee superstructure with different combinations of soil type, backwall height, and pile type.

Development of Abutment Design Standards for Local Bridge Designs, Volume 2 of 3, Design Manual, August 2004

Several superstructure design methodologies have been developed for low volume road bridges by the Iowa State University Bridge Engineering Center. However, to date no standard abutment designs have been developed. Thus, there was a need to establish an easy to use design methodology in addition to generating generic abutment standards and other design aids for the more common substructure systems used in Iowa. The final report for this project consists of three volumes. The first volume summarizes the research completed in this project. A survey of the Iowa County Engineers was conducted from which it was determined that while most counties use similar types of abutments, only 17 percent use some type of standard abutment designs or plans. A literature review revealed several possible alternative abutment systems for future use on low volume road bridges in addition to two separate substructure lateral load analysis methods. These consisted of a linear and a non-linear method. The linear analysis method was used for this project due to its relative simplicity and the relative accuracy of the maximum pile moment when compared to values obtained from the more complex non-linear analysis method. The resulting design methodology was developed for single span stub abutments supported on steel or timber piles with a bridge span length ranging from 20 to 90 ft and roadway widths of 24 and 30 ft. However, other roadway widths can be designed using the foundation design template provided. The backwall height is limited to a range of 6 to 12 ft, and the soil type is classified as cohesive or cohesionless. The design methodology was developed using the guidelines specified by the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials Standard Specifications, the Iowa Department of Transportation Bridge Design Manual, and the National Design Specifications for Wood Construction. The second volume (this volume) introduces and outlines the use of the various design aids developed for this project. Charts for determining dead and live gravity loads based on the roadway width, span length, and superstructure type are provided. A foundation design template was developed in which the engineer can check a substructure design by inputting basic bridge site information. Tables published by the Iowa Department of Transportation that provide values for estimating pile friction and end bearing for different combinations of soils and pile types are also included. Generic standard abutment plans were developed for which the engineer can provide necessary bridge site information in the spaces provided. These tools enable engineers to design and detail county bridge substructures more efficiently. The third volume provides two sets of calculations that demonstrate the application of the substructure design methodology developed in this project. These calculations also verify the accuracy of the foundation design template. The printouts from the foundation design template are provided at the end of each example. Also several tables provide various foundation details for a pre-cast double tee superstructure with different combinations of soil type, backwall height, and pile type.

LdShake: learning design solutions sharing and co-edition

Two important challenges that teachers are currently facing are the sharing and the collaborative authoring of their learning design solutions, such as didactical units and learning materials. On the one hand, there are tools that can be used for the creation of design solutions and only some of them facilitate the co-edition. However, they do not incorporate mechanisms that support the sharing of the designs between teachers. On the other hand, there are tools that serve as repositories of educational resources but they do not enable the authoring of the designs. In this paper we present LdShake, a web tool whose novelty is focused on the combined support for the social sharing and co-edition of learning design solutions within communities of teachers. Teachers can create and share learning designs with other teachers using different access rights so that they can read, comment or co-edit the designs. Therefore, each design solution is associated to a group of teachers able to work on its definition, and another group that can only see the design. The tool is generic in that it allows the creation of designs based on any pedagogical approach. However, it can be particularized in instances providing pre-formatted designs structured according to a specific didactic method (such as Problem-Based Learning, PBL). A particularized LdShake instance has been used in the context of Human Biology studies where teams of teachers are required to work together in the design of PBL solutions. A controlled user study, that compares the use of a generic LdShake and a Moodle system, configured to enable the creation and sharing of designs, has been also carried out. The combined results of the real and controlled studies show that the social structure, and the commenting, co-edition and publishing features of LdShake provide a useful, effective and usable approach for facilitating teachers' teamwork.

Influence of a lifestyle intervention in preschool children on physiological and psychological parameters (Ballabeina): study design of a cluster randomized controlled trial.

Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are increasing dramatically worldwide. Children of low socioeconomic status and/or children of migrant background are especially at risk. In general, the overall effectiveness of school-based programs on health-related outcomes has been disappointing. A special gap exists for younger children and in high risk groups. This paper describes the rationale, design, curriculum, and evaluation of a multicenter preschool randomized intervention study conducted in areas with a high migrant population in two out of 26 Swiss cantons. Twenty preschool classes in the German (canton St. Gallen) and another 20 in the French (canton Vaud) part of Switzerland were separately selected and randomized to an intervention and a control arm by the use of opaque envelopes. The multidisciplinary lifestyle intervention aimed to increase physical activity and sleep duration, to reinforce healthy nutrition and eating behaviour, and to reduce media use. According to the ecological model, it included children, their parents and the teachers. The regular teachers performed the majority of the intervention and were supported by a local health promoter. The intervention included physical activity lessons, adaptation of the built infrastructure; promotion of regional extracurricular physical activity; playful lessons about nutrition, media use and sleep, funny homework cards and information materials for teachers and parents. It lasted one school year. Baseline and post-intervention evaluations were performed in both arms. Primary outcome measures included BMI and aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run test). Secondary outcomes included total (skinfolds, bioelectrical impedance) and central (waist circumference) body fat, motor abilities (obstacle course, static and dynamic balance), physical activity and sleep duration (accelerometry and questionnaires), nutritional behaviour and food intake, media use, quality of life and signs of hyperactivity (questionnaires), attention and spatial working memory ability (two validated tests). Researchers were blinded to group allocation. The purpose of this paper is to outline the design of a school-based multicenter cluster randomized, controlled trial aiming to reduce body mass index and to increase aerobic fitness in preschool children in culturally different parts of Switzerland with a high migrant population. Trial Registration: (clinicaltrials.gov) NCT00674544.

Pile Design and Tests for Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-273, 1987

Expansion joints increase both the initial cost and the maintenance cost of bridges. Integral abutment bridges provide an attractive design alternative because expansion joints are eliminated from the bridge itself. However, the piles in these bridges are subjected to horizontal movement as the bridge expands and contracts during temperature changes. The objective of this research was to develop a method of designing piles for these conditions. Separate field tests simulating a pile and a bridge girder were conducted for three loading cases: (1) vertical load only, (2) horizontal displacement of pile head only, and (3) combined horizontal displacement of pile head with subsequent vertical load. Both tests (1) and (3) reached the same ultimate vertical load, that is, the horizontal displacement had no effect on the vertical load capacity. Several model tests were conducted in sand with a scale factor of about 1:10. Experimental results from both the field and model tests were used to develop the vertical and horizontal load-displacement properties of the soil. These properties were input into the finite element computer program Integral Abutment Bridge Two-Dimensional (IAB2D), which was developed under a previous research contract. Experimental and analytical results compared well for the test cases. Two alternative design methods, both based upon the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Specification, were developed. Alternative One is quite conservative relative to IAB2D results and does not permit plastic redistribution of forces. Alternative Two is also conservative when compared to IAB2D, but plastic redistribution is permitted. To use Alternative Two, the pile cross section must have sufficient inelastic rotation capacity before local buckling occurs. A design example for a friction pile and an end-bearing pile illustrates both alternatives.