Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

The role of interbank markets in monetary policy: A model with rationing

This paper analyses the impact of asymmetric information in the interbankmarket and establishes its crucial role in the microfoundations of the monetarypolicy transmission mechanism. We show that interbank market imperfectionsinduce an equilibrium with rationing in the credit market. This has two majorimplications: first, it reconciles the irresponsiveness of business investment to theuser cost of capital with the large impact of monetary policy (magnitude effect)and, second, it shows that banks liquidity positions condition their reaction tomonetary policy (Kashyap and Stein liquidity effect).

Monetary policy in a systemic crisis

This paper examines the monetary policy followed during the current financial crisisfrom the perspective of the theory of the lender of last resort. It is argued that standardmonetary policy measures would have failed because the channels through whichmonetary policy is implemented depend upon the well functioning of the interbankmarket. As the crisis developed, liquidity vanished and the interbank market collapsed,central banks had to inject much more liquidity at low interest rates than predicted bystandard monetary policy models. At the same time, as the interbank market did notallow for the redistribution of liquidity among banks, central banks had to design newchannels for liquidity injection.

Gender gaps in policy making: Evidence from direct democracy in Switzerland

In spite of increasing representation of women in politics, little is known about their impact onpolicies. Comparing outcomes of parliaments with different shares of female members does not identifytheir causal impact because of possible differences in the underlying electorate. This paper usesa unique data set on voting decisions to sheds new light on gender gaps in policy making. Ouranalysis focuses on Switzerland, where all citizens can directly decide on a broad range of policiesin referendums and initiatives. We show that there are large gender gaps in the areas of health,environmental protection, defense spending and welfare policy which typically persist even conditionalon socio-economic characteristics. We also find that female policy makers have a substantial effect onthe composition of public spending, but a small effect on the overall size of government.

Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union

We lay out a tractable model for fiscal and monetary policy analysis in a currency union, and study its implications for the optimal design of such policies. Monetary policy is conducted by a common central bank, which sets the interest rate for the union as a whole. Fiscal policy is implemented at the countrylevel, through the choice of government spending. The model incorporates country-specific shocks and nominal rigidities. Under our assumptions, the optimal cooperative policy arrangement requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank, while fiscal policy is used by each country for stabilization purposes. By contrast, when the fiscal authorities act in a non-coordinated way, their joint actions lead to a suboptimal outcome, and make the common central bank face a trade-off between inflation and output gap stabilization at the union level.

Introducing a first AIDS vaccine in Switzerland: a Policy Delphi analysis.

This preliminary exploration was limited by a number of factors. The format of the study has necessarily induced some form of selection bias of the panelists, because of the complexity of some questions, and the time required to complete the questionnaires. Several issues have not been addressed. One example could be the response to HIV infection occurring in a vaccinee. The study also did not address the difficulties related to the licensing of the vaccine. Indeed, the proposed scenario assumed that the vaccine had been registered as a starting point for the analysis. Finally, it has not been possible to conduct a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate how the responses would have been modified if some important characteristics of the vaccine had been modified.Very diverse evaluations were given in response to questions related with attitudes and perception of AIDS and AIDS vaccine. The possibility that vaccine availability or usage can be associated with an increased frequency in risky behaviors was spontaneously mentioned by half of the panelists. The estimation of the proportion of persons at highest risk who would choose to use this vaccine also indicated a high degree of uncertainty. This study offers important lessons. According to a broad and diverse panel of individuals, an incompletely effective AIDS vaccine would result in an additional level of complexity for the AIDS prevention strategy, rather than a simplification. The use of such a vaccine would have to be coupled with counselling. This implies a sustained emphasis on the recommendations which have been central to the STOP AIDS campaigns until now. In addition, consensual issues, as well as other issues more likely to be controversial have been identified. This should greatly help focusing the work of any committee designated to develop and implement a vaccination policy if an AIDS vaccine became available. Finally, our experience with the Policy Delphi indicates that this mode of structured communication could be usefully applied to other public health issues presenting a high visibility as well as a complex relationship with public perception.

Research joint ventures and optimal R&D policy with asymmetric information

When to allow Research Joint Ventures (RJVs) or not is an importantinstrument in the development of an optimal R&D policy. Theregulator, however, is unlikely to know all the relevant informationto regulate R&D optimally. The extent to which there existappropriability problems between the firms is one such variable thatis private information to the firms in the industry. In a duopolysetting we analyze the characteristics of a second-best R&D policywhere the government can either allow RJVs or not and give lump-sumsubsidies to the parties involved. The second-best R&D policy withoutsubsidies will either block some welfare improving RJVs or allow somewelfare reducing ones. With lump-sum subsidies, the second-best policytrades off the expected subsidy cost with allowing welfare decreasingRJVs or blocking welfare increasing ones.

Pharmaceutical generics, vertical product differentiation and public policy

This paper studies oligopolistic competition in off-patent pharmaceuticalmarkets using a vertical product differentiation model. This model canexplain the observation that countries with stronger regulations havesmaller generic market shares. It can also explain the differences inobserved regulatory regimes. Stronger regulation may be due to a higherproportion of production that is done by foreign firms. Finally, a closelyrelated model can account for the observed increase in prices by patentowners after entry of generic producers.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis

This paper provides updated empirical evidence about the real and nominal effects of monetary policy in Italy, by using structural VAR analysis. We discuss different empirical approaches that have been used in order to identify monetary policy exogenous shocks. We argue that the data support the view that the Bank of Italy, at least in the recent past, has been targeting the rate on overnight interbank loans. Therefore, we interpret shocks to the overnight rate as purely exogenous monetary policy shocks and study how different macroeconomic variables react to such shocks.

Optimal bail out policy, conditionality and constructive ambiguity

This paper addresses the issue of the optimal behaviour of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) in its microeconomic role regarding individual financial institutions in distress. It has been argued that the LOLR should not intervene at the microeconomic level and let any defaulting institution face the market discipline, as it will be confronted with the consequences of the risks it has taken. By considering a simple costbenefit analysis we show that this position may lack a sufficient foundation. We establish that, instead, uder reasonable assumptions, the optimal policy has to be conditional on the amount of uninsured debt issued by the defaulting bank. Yet in equilibrium, because the rescue policy is costly, the LOLR will not rescue all the banks that fulfill the uninsured debt requirement condition, but will follow a mixed strategy. This we interpret as the confirmation of the "creative ambiguity" principle, perfectly in line with the central bankers claim that it is efficient for them to have discretion in lending to individual institutions. Alternatively, in other cases, when the social cost of a bank's bankruptcy is too high, it is optimal for the LOLR to bail out the insititution, and this gives support to the "too big to fail" policy.

O Dualismo Cultural: os Luso-Caboverdianos entre a Escola a Família e a Comunidade (Estudo de Caso)

A tese que ora findamos visa a obtenção do grau de doutora em Educação, na Especialidade de Desenvolvimento Curricular, pelo Departamento do Currículo e Tecnologia Educativa, do Instituto de Educação e Psicologia, da Universidade do Minho. Intitulado o dualismo cultural: os luso-caboverdianos entre a escola, a família e a comunidade, o presente estudo centra-se numa abordagem crítica da escolaridade básica obrigatória, no qual procurámos compreender e explicar as condições de realização deste nível de ensino pelos jovens de ascendência caboverdiana, nascidos em Portugal, na qualidade de sujeitos biculturais em consequência da simbiose das culturas caboverdeana e portuguesa. Isto para concluirmos se na oferta do serviço educativo e de formação estão acautelados os seus direitos de cidadania e de participação na sociedade em que se encontram inseridos e a que pertencem de facto. Nesta investigação foi fundamental analisar a oferta de educação básica, entender as representações de alunos lusocaboverdeanos acerca da sua identidade cultural e das suas percepções sobre a formação académica que recebem; reconhecer representações e percepções de professores acerca da realidade educativa portuguesa, o enquadramento da multiculturalidade e a docência em turmas com alunos luso-caboverdianos, e compreender as percepções de pais e encarregados da educação caboverdeanos acerca da realidade educativa portuguesa e do enquadramento dos seus filhos na escola, para perceber se o insucesso educativo dos luso-caboverdeanos está relacionado com a condição de aluno “culturalmente diferente” ou se tem a sua origem na escola e no currículo da escolaridade obrigatória e, assim, contribuir com subsídios teóricos e práticos para o aprofundamento da problemática da multiculturalidade em Portugal, com vista à sua potenciação e normalização no sistema educativo. Estando perante uma sociedade de formação multicultural reafirmada com a colonização, justifica-se, em Portugal, a preocupação com a temática da diversidade cultural nas políticas educativas, resultante da consciencialização da manifestação da diversidade cultural no contexto escolar, podendo a sua omissão constituir num factor de insucesso educativo. Por isso, integramos nesta investigação matérias como: uma conceptualização do multiculturalismo com vista a questionar e clarificar os conceitos e as perspectivas inerentes a este fenómeno. Uma tentativa de desocultar para perceber o conteúdo simbólico e os porquês das políticas de integração das minorias etnicoculturais que, ao que parece, nos tempos que correm, por quase toda a parte, se converteram numa prioridade absoluta e inadiável. Estabelecemos uma ponte entre a génese do campo curricular e a construção de um currículo multi e/ou intercultural, merecendo devida atenção as tendências que dominam as discussões e a produção científica actuais nestes domínios. Problematizámos o currículo e identidade na escolaridade obrigatória nas dimensões inserção sociocultural, promoção da igualdade de sucesso educativo e inclusão dos sujeitos e o currículo e a educação para o exercício da cidadania numa escola que se quer plural. Neste último debatemos o conteúdo político da educação para a cidadania, as políticas educativas e curriculares e a escolaridade básica obrigatória como uma proposta que continua em aberto, por isso, passível de adequação às necessidades de uma educação da e para a diversidade. Procurámos fazer uma análise das políticas de integração socioeducativa da diversidade cultural, com destaque para o quadro legal que regula a integração das minorias étnicas na escola básica portuguesa, com particular incidência sobre as crianças pertencentes à comunidade caboverdeana nascidas em território português, procurando concluir acerca da existência, ou não, de posições e opções de políticas educativas concretas face à necessidade de dar prosseguimento à educação multicultural neste contexto. Tratou-se de uma investigação qualitativa holística, que permitiu desenvolver compreensões profundas dos fenómenos a partir das evidências reunidas, do estudo das representações dos sujeitos sobre quem recaem os resultados da investigação, mas também de sujeitos que, assim como o meio envolvente, estabelecem uma relação indirecta com os mesmos resultados. Circunscrito a um estudo de caso, a reflexão e a partilha de conhecimento e informações possibilitou desenvolver uma compreensão sobre a problemática estudada. Dos resultados obtidos, destacámos aqui que, em Portugal, apesar da absorvência da diversidade cultural nas política educativa, não se concretizou, ainda, uma proposta que, na prática, crie a reciprocidade entre as questões etnicoculturais e o sucesso e/ou insucesso educativos das minorias em educação com ganhos decisivos no combate ao insucesso e ao abandono escolar. Continua-se a desenvolver uma educação igualitarista monocultural pela via da homogeneização curricular, assente na noção de que povos e grupos podem estar em condições de igualdade se reunidos numa cultura comum. Aparentemente sob pilares democráticos, esta educação multicultural segue a concepção liberal associando essencialismo, universalismo e igualitarismo, resultando num propósito civilizacional excludente das minorias etnicoculturais. As conclusões chegadas permitem-nos defender a dessacralização do currículo nacional comum e uniforme e a defesa de uma proposta curricular baseada numa cultura científica global e necessária, de acordo com as faixas etárias e níveis de ensino, com campos de integração obrigatória de conteúdos territorializados alicerçados no interculturalismo como estratégia promotora da interacção crítica e solidária entre diferentes sujeitos e grupos culturais, permissiva da construção de identidades próprias e da confissão da diferença cultural, associada ao intraculturalismo como uma via permeabilizadora da educação democrática como garante da cidadania plena a todos os indivíduos, como condição fundamental para o estabelecimento das condições de igualdade e de garantia de sucesso em educação.

Economic booms, trade deficits and economic policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by realexchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -whichhave sometimes persisted after the return to the initialexchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector.Those circumstances have typically raised the questionof the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expectedproductivity shock in an economy where the capital stockis non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances.Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfectionstend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause aninefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector.Some stabilization policies are explored.