Panel cointegration and the monetary exchange rate model

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error-correction-based cointegration tests for panel data

This article describes a new Stata command called xtwest, which implements the four error-correction-based panel cointegration tests developed by Westerlund (2007). The tests are general enough to allow for a large degree of heterogeneity, both in the long-run cointegrating relationship and in the short-run dynamics, and dependence within as well as across the cross-sectional units.

Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models

Time series unit root evidence suggests that inflation is nonstationary. By contrast, when using more powerful panel unit root tests, Culver and Papell (1997) find that inflation is stationary. In this article, we test the robustness of this result by applying a battery of recent panel unit root tests. The results suggest that the stationarity of inflation holds even after controlling for cross-sectional dependence and structural change.

Agriculture, trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options

This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high-, medium- and low-income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the studyemploys three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group-type linear panel modelsand one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross-sectionaldependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and agricultural value-added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels, whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails totrack any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission reduction due to trade liberalisation.

The local power of the CADF and CIPS panel unit root tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.

Urbanization, openness, emissions, and energy intensity: a study of increasingly urbanized emerging economies

This paper analyses the impact of urbanization and trade openness on emissions and energy intensity in twenty-two increasingly urbanized emerging economies. We employ three second-generation heterogeneous linear panel models as well as recently developed nonlinear panel estimation techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results show that population density and affluence increase emissions and energy intensity while renewable energy seems to be dormant in these emerging economies, but non-renewable energy increases both CO2 emissions and energy intensity. In addition, openness significantly reduces both pollutant emissions and energy intensity whereas urbanization significantly increases energy intensity, but it is insignificant in increasing emissions. This may be, in part, due to the recent increasing trend in adopting cleaner technologies in these increasingly urbanized developing economies.

Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries

This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second-generation heterogeneous linear panel models and one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique that allows for cross-sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, although it is detrimental to non-oil and total trade balances. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil trade balances in these oil exporting countries. Forty major oil importers seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, they must worry about oil price declines. A decline in oil prices has a negative impact on both total and real oil trade balances resulting from increased oil imports in emerging economies. Hence, a decline in oil prices is beneficial to oil exporters due to the quantity effect outweighing the price effect, while for oil importers a stable oil price is more desirable than a price decline. These results are important to take into account if we are to gain a full understanding on the magnitude of the trade and macroeconomic effects of oil price changes and what the policy responses should be.

Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth

Research that seeks to estimate the effects of fiscal policies on economic growth has ignored the role of public debt in this relationship. This study proposes a theoretical model of endogenous growth, which demonstrates that the level of the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio should negatively impact the effect of fiscal policy on growth. This occurs because government indebtedness extracts part of the savings of the young to pay interest on the debts of the older generation, who are no longer saving. Therefore, the payment of debt interest assumes an allocation exchange role between generations that is similar to a pay-as-you-go pension system, which results in changes in the savings rate of the economy. The major conclusions of the theoretical model were tested using an econometric model to provide evidence for the validity of this conclusion. Our empirical analysis controls for timeinvariant, country-specific heterogeneity in the growth rates. We also address endogeneity issues and allow for heterogeneity across countries in the model parameters and for cross-sectional dependence.

Output and labor productivity in organized manufacturing: a panel cointegration analysis for India

One of the policy puzzles faced in India during the last two and half decades has been the weak association between output and labor markets, particularly in the manufacturing sector. In this research, we investigate the long-run relationship between output, labor productivity and real wages in the case of organized manufacturing. We adjust the measure of labor productivity incorporating bottlenecks, such as lack of infrastructure, access to external finance, and labor regulations, which all may influence labor market outcomes. Using panel data from seventeen manufacturing industries, we establish long-run dynamics for the output-labor productivity-real wages series over a period of nearly three decades. We employ recently developed panel unit root and cointegration tests for cross-sectional dependence to incorporate heterogeneity across industries. Long-run elasticities are generally found to be low for labor productivity compared to real wages due to the changes in manufacturing output. There are variations across industries within the manufacturing sector for the effects of the labor market on manufacturing output. In some industries, lower wages are associated with higher output, and the reason for the positive relationship in other industries could be due to workers' bargaining power.

The reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale for detecting cannabis dependence in psychosis.

Aims: To determine the reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) for detecting cannabis dependence in a large sample of in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Design: Cross-sectional study. Participants: Participants were 153 in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder in Brisbane, Australia. Measurements: Participants were administered the SDS for cannabis dependence in the past 12 months. The presence of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Version-IV (DSM-IV) cannabis dependence in the previous 12 months was assessed using the Comprehensive International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Findings: The SDS had high levels of internal consistency and strong construct and concurrent validity. Individuals with a score of ≥2 on the SDS were nearly 30 times more likely to have DSM-IV cannabis dependence. The SDS was the strongest predictor of DSM-IV cannabis dependence after controlling for other predictor variables. Conclusions: The SDS is a brief, valid and reliable screen for cannabis dependence among people with psychosis

Effects of Isothermal and Adiabatic Thermal Loadings on Size and Strain Rate Dependence of Copper Nanowire

In the present paper, the size and strain rate effects on ultra-thin < 100 >/{100} Cu nanowires at an initial temperature of 10 K have been discussed. Extensive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been performed using Embedded atom method (EAM) to investigate the structural behaviours and properties under high strain rate. Velocity-Verlet algorithm has been used to solve the equation of motions. Two different thermal loading cases have been considered: (i) Isothermal loading, in which Nose-Hoover thermostat is used to maintain the constant system temperature, and (ii) Adiabatic loading, i.e., without any thermostat. Five different wire cross-sections were considered ranging from 0.723 x 0.723 nm(2) to 2.169 x 2.169 nm(2) The strain rates used in the present study were 1 x 10(9) s(-1), 1 x 10(8) s(-1), and 1 x 10(7) s(-1). The effect of strain rate on the mechanical properties of copper nanowires was analysed, which shows that elastic properties are independent of thermal loading for a given strain rate and cross-sectional dimension of nanowire. It showed a decreasing yield stress and yield strain with decreasing strain rate for a given cross- section. Also, a decreasing yield stress and increasing yield strain were observed for a given strain rate with increasing cross-sectional area. Elastic modulus was found to be similar to 100 GPa, which was independent of processing temperature, strain rate, and size for a given initial temperature. Reorientation of < 100 >/{100} square cross-sectional copper nanowire into a series of stable ultra-thin Pentagon copper nanobridge structures with dia of similar to 1 nm at 10 K was observed under high strain rate tensile loading. The effect of isothermal and adiabatic loading on the formation of such pentagonal nanobridge structure has been discussed.

Morphology dependence of the dielectric properties of epitaxial BaTiO3 films and epitaxial BaTiO3/SrTiO3 multilayers

Epitaxial BaTiO3 films and epitaxial BaTiO3/SrTiO3 multilayers were grown by pulsed laser deposition on vicinal surfaces of (001)-oriented Nb-doped SrTiO3 (SrTiO3:Nb) single-crystal substrates. Atomic force microscopy was used to investigate the surface topography of the deposited films. The morphology of the films, of the BaTiO3/SrTiO3 interfaces, and of the column boundaries was investigated by cross-sectional high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. Measurements of the dielectric properties were performed by comparing BaTiO3 films and BaTiO3/SrTiO3 multilayers of different numbers of individual layers, but equal overall thickness. The dielectric loss saturates for a thickness above 300 nm and linearly decreases with decreasing film thickness below a thickness of 75 nm. At the same thickness of 75 nm, the thickness dependence of the dielectric constant also exhibits a change in the linear slope both for BaTiO3 films and BaTiO3/SrTiO3 multilayers. This behaviour is explained by the change observed in the grain morphology at a thickness of 75 nm. For the thickness dependence of the dielectric constant, two phenomenological models are considered, viz. a 'series-capacitor' model and a 'dead-layer' model.

Association of smoking and nicotine dependence with pre-diabetes in young and healthy adults.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies have shown an increased risk of type 2 diabetes among smokers. Therefore, the aim of this analysis was to assess the relationship between smoking, cumulative smoking exposure and nicotine dependence with pre-diabetes. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of healthy adults aged 25-41 in the Principality of Liechtenstein. Individuals with known diabetes, Body Mass Index (BMI) >35 kg/m² and prevalent cardiovascular disease were excluded. Smoking behaviour was assessed by self-report. Pre-diabetes was defined as glycosylated haemoglobin between 5.7% and 6.4%. Multivariable logistic regression models were done. RESULTS: Of the 2142 participants (median age 37 years), 499 (23.3%) had pre-diabetes. There were 1,168 (55%) never smokers, 503 (23%) past smokers and 471 (22%) current smokers, with a prevalence of pre-diabetes of 21.2%, 20.9% and 31.2%, respectively (p <0.0001). In multivariable regression models, current smokers had an odds ratio (OR) of pre-diabetes of 1.82 (95% confidential interval (CI) 1.39; 2.38, p <0.0001). Individuals with a smoking exposure of <5, 5-10 and >10 pack-years had an OR (95% CI) for pre-diabetes of 1.34 (0.90; 2.00), 1.80 (1.07; 3.01) and 2.51 (1.80; 3.59) (p linear trend <0.0001) compared with never smokers. A Fagerström score of 2, 3-5 and >5 among current smokers was associated with an OR (95% CI) for pre-diabetes of 1.27 (0.89; 1.82), 2.15 (1.48; 3.13) and 3.35 (1.73; 6.48) (p linear trend <0.0001). DISCUSSION: Smoking is strongly associated with pre-diabetes in young adults with a low burden of smoking exposure. Nicotine dependence could be a potential mechanism of this relationship.

Can the Severity of Dependence Scale be usefully applied for 'ecstasy'?

Background/Aims: Although use of 'ecstasy' (drugs sold as containing 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) is prevalent, it is typically infrequent, and treatment presentations involving ecstasy as a principal problem drug are relatively rare. Human case reports and animal literature suggest dependence potential, although there may be some unique aspects to this syndrome for ecstasy in comparison to other substances. The Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) was examined to determine whether this could usefully identify 'dependent' ecstasy consumers.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 1,658 frequent (at least monthly) ecstasy consumers across Australia, assessing drug use, associated harms and risk behaviours. Dependence was evaluated with the SDS, using a cut-off of ≥4 to identify potential 'dependence'. Results: One fifth of the participants were screened as potentially dependent. These individuals used ecstasy more frequently, in greater amounts, engaged more extensively in risk behaviours and reported greater role interference than other participants. These findings were independent of methamphetamine use or dependence. The underlying structure of the ecstasy SDS was bifactorial.

Conclusions: The SDS has demonstrated construct validity as a screening tool to identify ecstasy users at elevated risk of experiencing adverse consequences, including features of dependence. The underlying structure of dependence symptoms differs for ecstasy compared to other drug classes, and some dependent consumers use the drug infrequently. The unique neurotoxic potential and entactogenic effects of ecstasy may require a distinct nosological classification for the experience of dependence associated with the drug.

Cigarette smoking, nicotine dependence and anxiety disorders : a systematic review of population-based, epidemiological studies

Background Multiple studies have demonstrated that rates of smoking and nicotine dependence are increased in individuals with anxiety disorders. However, significant variability exists in the epidemiological literature exploring this relationship, including study design (cross-sectional versus prospective), the population assessed (random sample versus clinical population) and diagnostic instrument utilized.

Methods We undertook a systematic review of population-based observational studies that utilized recognized structured clinical diagnostic criteria (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD)) for anxiety disorder diagnosis to investigate the relationship between cigarette smoking, nicotine dependence and anxiety disorders.

Results In total, 47 studies met the predefined inclusion criteria, with 12 studies providing prospective information and 5 studies providing quasiprospective information. The available evidence suggests that some baseline anxiety disorders are a risk factor for initiation of smoking and nicotine dependence, although the evidence is heterogeneous and many studies did not control for the effect of comorbid substance use disorders. The identified evidence however appeared to more consistently support cigarette smoking and nicotine dependence as being a risk factor for development of some anxiety disorders (for example, panic disorder, generalized anxiety disorder), although these findings were not replicated in all studies. A number of inconsistencies in the literature were identified.

Conclusions Although many studies have demonstrated increased rates of smoking and nicotine dependence in individuals with anxiety disorders, there is a limited and heterogeneous literature that has prospectively examined this relationship in population studies using validated diagnostic criteria. The most consistent evidence supports smoking and nicotine dependence as increasing the risk of panic disorder and generalized anxiety disorder. The literature assessing anxiety disorders increasing smoking and nicotine dependence is inconsistent. Potential issues with the current literature are discussed and directions for future research are suggested.