Main-Channel Slopes of Selected Streams in Iowa for Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges, November 2004

This report describes a statewide study conducted to develop main-channel slope (MCS) curves for 138 selected streams in Iowa with drainage areas greater than 100 square miles. MCS values determined from the curves can be used in regression equations for estimating flood frequency discharges. Multi-variable regression equations previously developed for two of the three hydrologic regions defined for Iowa require the measurement of MCS. Main-channel slope is a difficult measurement to obtain for large streams using 1:24,000-scale topographic maps. The curves developed in this report provide a simplified method for determining MCS values for sites located along large streams in Iowa within hydrologic Regions 2 and 3. The curves were developed using MCS values quantified for 2,058 selected sites along 138 selected streams in Iowa. A geographic information system (GIS) technique and 1:24,000-scale topographic data were used to quantify MCS values for the stream sites. The sites were selected at about 5-mile intervals along the streams. River miles were quantified for each stream site using a GIS program. Data points for river-mile and MCS values were plotted and a best-fit curve was developed for each stream. An adjustment was applied to all 138 curves to compensate for differences in MCS values between manual measurements and GIS quantification. The multi-variable equations for Regions 2 and 3 were developed using manual measurements of MCS. A comparison of manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS indicates that manual measurements typically produce greater values of MCS compared to GIS quantification. Median differences between manual measurements and GIS quantification of MCS are 14.8 and 17.7 percent for Regions 2 and 3, respectively. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood-frequency discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and GIS quantification indicate that use of GIS values of MCS for Region 3 substantially underestimate flood discharges. Mean and median percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged from 5.0 to 5.3 and 4.3 to 4.5 percent, respectively, for Region 2 and ranged from 18.3 to 27.1 and 12.3 to 17.3 percent for Region 3. The MCS curves developed from GIS quantification were adjusted by 14.8 percent for streams located in Region 2 and by 17.7 percent for streams located in Region 3. Comparisons of percentage differences between flood discharges calculated using MCS values of manual measurements and adjusted-GIS quantification for Regions 2 and 3 indicate that the flood-discharge estimates are comparable. For Region 2, mean percentage differences for 2- to 500-year recurrence-interval flood discharges ranged between 0.6 and 0.8 percent and median differences were 0.0 percent. For Region 3, mean and median differences ranged between 5.4 to 8.4 and 0.0 to 0.3 percent, respectively. A list of selected stream sites presented with each curve provides information about the sites including river miles, drainage areas, the location of U.S. Geological Survey stream flowgage stations, and the location of streams Abstract crossing hydro logic region boundaries or the Des Moines Lobe landforms region boundary. Two examples are presented for determining river-mile and MCS values, and two techniques are presented for computing flood-frequency discharges.

Durable, Cost-Effective Pavement Markings Phase I: Synthesis of Current Research, June 2001

Pavement marking technology is a continually evolving subject. There are numerous types of materials used in the field today, including (but not limited to) paint, epoxy, tape, and thermoplastic. Each material has its own set of unique characteristics related to durability, retro reflectivity, installation cost, and life-cycle cost. The Iowa Highway Research Board was interested in investigating the possibility of developing an ongoing program to evaluate the various products used in pavement marking. This potential program would maintain a database of performance and cost information to assist state and local agencies in determining which materials and placement methods are most appropriate for their use. The Center for Transportation Research and Education at Iowa State University has completed Phase I of this research: to identify the current practice and experiences from around the United States to recommend a further course of action for the State of Iowa. There has been a significant amount of research completed in the last several years. Research from Michigan, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Ohio, and Alaska all had some common findings: white markings are more retro reflective than yellow markings; paint is by-and-large the least expensive material; paint tends to degrade faster than other materials; thermoplastic and tapes had higher retro reflective characteristics. Perhaps the most significant program going on in the area of pavement markings is the National Transportation Product Evaluation Program (NTPEP). This is an ongoing research program jointly conducted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and its member states. Field and lab tests on numerous types of pavement marking materials are being conducted at sites representing four climatological areas. These results are published periodically for use by any jurisdiction interested in pavement marking materials performance.At this time, it is recommended that the State of Iowa not embark on a test deck evaluation program. Instead, close attention should be paid to the ongoing evaluations of the NTPEP program. Materials that fare well on the NTPEP test de cks should be considered for further field studies in Iowa.

Automated DNA extraction using the QIAsymphony platform: Estimation of DNA recovery from simulated forensic stains

The aim of this study was to evaluate the forensic protocol recently developed by Qiagen for the QIAsymphony automated DNA extraction platform. Samples containing low amounts of DNA were specifically considered, since they represent the majority of samples processed in our laboratory. The analysis of simulated blood and saliva traces showed that the highest DNA yields were obtained with the maximal elution volume available for the forensic protocol, that is 200 ml. Resulting DNA extracts were too diluted for successful DNA profiling and required a concentration. This additional step is time consuming and potentially increases inversion and contamination risks. The 200 ml DNA extracts were concentrated to 25 ml, and the DNA recovery estimated with real-time PCR as well as with the percentage of SGM Plus alleles detected. Results using our manual protocol, based on the QIAamp DNA mini kit, and the automated protocol were comparable. Further tests will be conducted to determine more precisely DNA recovery, contamination risk and PCR inhibitors removal, once a definitive procedure, allowing the concentration of DNA extracts from low yield samples, will be available for the QIAsymphony.

Malaria haplotype frequency estimation.

We present a Bayesian approach for estimating the relative frequencies of multi-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) haplotypes in populations of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum by using microarray SNP data from human blood samples. Each sample comes from a malaria patient and contains one or several parasite clones that may genetically differ. Samples containing multiple parasite clones with different genetic markers pose a special challenge. The situation is comparable with a polyploid organism. The data from each blood sample indicates whether the parasites in the blood carry a mutant or a wildtype allele at various selected genomic positions. If both mutant and wildtype alleles are detected at a given position in a multiply infected sample, the data indicates the presence of both alleles, but the ratio is unknown. Thus, the data only partially reveals which specific combinations of genetic markers (i.e. haplotypes across the examined SNPs) occur in distinct parasite clones. In addition, SNP data may contain errors at non-negligible rates. We use a multinomial mixture model with partially missing observations to represent this data and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the haplotype frequencies in a population. Our approach addresses both challenges, multiple infections and data errors.

Cost-effective experimental design to support modeling of concentration-response functions

Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments

Estimation of genetic parameters for test-day milk production at different stages of lactation of Finnish Ayrshire heifers

Selostus: Ayrshire-ensikoiden koelypsykohtaisen maidontuotannon perinnölliset tunnusluvut laktaation eri vaiheissa

Estimation of soil moisture in the root-zone from remote sensing data

Field-based soil moisture measurements are cumbersome. Thus, remote sensing techniques are needed because allows field and landscape-scale mapping of soil moisture depth-averaged through the root zone of existing vegetation. The objective of the study was to evaluate the accuracy of an empirical relationship to calculate soil moisture from remote sensing data of irrigated soils of the Apodi Plateau, in the Brazilian semiarid region. The empirical relationship had previously been tested for irrigated soils in Mexico, Egypt, and Pakistan, with promising results. In this study, the relationship was evaluated from experimental data collected from a cotton field. The experiment was carried out in an area of 5 ha with irrigated cotton. The energy balance and evaporative fraction (Λ) were measured by the Bowen ratio method. Soil moisture (θ) data were collected using a PR2 - Profile Probe (Delta-T Devices Ltd). The empirical relationship was tested using experimentally collected Λ and θ values and was applied using the Λ values obtained from the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and three TM - Landsat 5 images. There was a close correlation between measured and estimated θ values (p<0.05, R² = 0.84) and there were no significant differences according to the Student t-test (p<0.01). The statistical analyses showed that the empirical relationship can be applied to estimate the root-zone soil moisture of irrigated soils, i.e. when the evaporative fraction is greater than 0.45.

Estimation of water percolation by different methods using TDR

Detailed knowledge on water percolation into the soil in irrigated areas is fundamental for solving problems of drainage, pollution and the recharge of underground aquifers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the percolation estimated by time-domain-reflectometry (TDR) in a drainage lysimeter. We used Darcy's law with K(θ) functions determined by field and laboratory methods and by the change in water storage in the soil profile at 16 points of moisture measurement at different time intervals. A sandy clay soil was saturated and covered with plastic sheet to prevent evaporation and an internal drainage trial in a drainage lysimeter was installed. The relationship between the observed and estimated percolation values was evaluated by linear regression analysis. The results suggest that percolation in the field or laboratory can be estimated based on continuous monitoring with TDR, and at short time intervals, of the variations in soil water storage. The precision and accuracy of this approach are similar to those of the lysimeter and it has advantages over the other evaluated methods, of which the most relevant are the possibility of estimating percolation in short time intervals and exemption from the predetermination of soil hydraulic properties such as water retention and hydraulic conductivity. The estimates obtained by the Darcy-Buckingham equation for percolation levels using function K(θ) predicted by the method of Hillel et al. (1972) provided compatible water percolation estimates with those obtained in the lysimeter at time intervals greater than 1 h. The methods of Libardi et al. (1980), Sisson et al. (1980) and van Genuchten (1980) underestimated water percolation.

Plant-available soil water capacity: estimation methods and implications

The plant-available water capacity of the soil is defined as the water content between field capacity and wilting point, and has wide practical application in planning the land use. In a representative profile of the Cerrado Oxisol, methods for estimating the wilting point were studied and compared, using a WP4-T psychrometer and Richards chamber for undisturbed and disturbed samples. In addition, the field capacity was estimated by the water content at 6, 10, 33 kPa and by the inflection point of the water retention curve, calculated by the van Genuchten and cubic polynomial models. We found that the field capacity moisture determined at the inflection point was higher than by the other methods, and that even at the inflection point the estimates differed, according to the model used. By the WP4-T psychrometer, the water content was significantly lower found the estimate of the permanent wilting point. We concluded that the estimation of the available water holding capacity is markedly influenced by the estimation methods, which has to be taken into consideration because of the practical importance of this parameter.

Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Estimation of the parameters of the gravitational-wage signal of a coalescing binary system

The statistical theory of signal detection and the estimation of its parameters are reviewed and applied to the case of detection of the gravitational-wave signal from a coalescing binary by a laser interferometer. The correlation integral and the covariance matrix for all possible static configurations are investigated numerically. Approximate analytic formulas are derived for the case of narrow band sensitivity configuration of the detector.

Spatial estimation of foliar phosphorus in different species of the genus Coffea based on soil properties

Information underlying analyses of coffee fertilization systems should consider both the soil and the nutritional status of plants. This study investigated the spatial relationship between phosphorus (P) levels in coffee plant tissues and soil chemical and physical properties. The study was performed using two arabica and one canephora coffee variety. Sampling grids were established in the areas, and the points georeferenced. The assessed properties of the soil were levels of available phosphorus (P-Mehlich), remaining phosphorus (P-rem) and particle size, and of the plant tissue, phosphorus levels (foliar P). The data were subjected to descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, cluster analysis, and probability tests. Geostatistical and trend analyses were only performed for pairs of variables with significant linear correlation. The spatial variability for foliar P content was high for the variety Catuai and medium for the other evaluated plants. Unlike P-Mehlich, the variability in P-rem of the soil indicated the nutritional status of this nutrient in the plant.

Revisiting Field Capacity (FC): variation of definition of FC and its estimation from pedotransfer functions

Taking into account the nature of the hydrological processes involved in in situ measurement of Field Capacity (FC), this study proposes a variation of the definition of FC aiming not only at minimizing the inadequacies of its determination, but also at maintaining its original, practical meaning. Analysis of FC data for 22 Brazilian soils and additional FC data from the literature, all measured according to the proposed definition, which is based on a 48-h drainage time after infiltration by shallow ponding, indicates a weak dependency on the amount of infiltrated water, antecedent moisture level, soil morphology, and the level of the groundwater table, but a strong dependency on basic soil properties. The dependence on basic soil properties allowed determination of FC of the 22 soil profiles by pedotransfer functions (PTFs) using the input variables usually adopted in prediction of soil water retention. Among the input variables, soil moisture content θ (6 kPa) had the greatest impact. Indeed, a linear PTF based only on it resulted in an FC with a root mean squared residue less than 0.04 m³ m-3 for most soils individually. Such a PTF proved to be a better FC predictor than the traditional method of using moisture content at an arbitrary suction. Our FC data were compatible with an equivalent and broader USA database found in the literature, mainly for medium-texture soil samples. One reason for differences between FCs of the two data sets of fine-textured soils is due to their different drainage times. Thus, a standardized procedure for in situ determination of FC is recommended.

Estimation of field capacity from ring infiltrometer-drainage data

Field capacity (FC) is a parameter widely used in applied soil science. However, its in situ method of determination may be difficult to apply, generally because of the need of large supplies of water at the test sites. Ottoni Filho et al. (2014) proposed a standardized procedure for field determination of FC and showed that such in situ FC can be estimated by a linear pedotransfer function (PTF) based on volumetric soil water content at the matric potential of -6 kPa [θ(6)] for the same soils used in the present study. The objective of this study was to use soil moisture data below a double ring infiltrometer measured 48 h after the end of the infiltration test in order to develop PTFs for standard in situ FC. We found that such ring FC data were an average of 0.03 m³ m- 3 greater than standard FC values. The linear PTF that was developed for the ring FC data based only on θ(6) was nearly as accurate as the equivalent PTF reported by Ottoni Filho et al. (2014), which was developed for the standard FC data. The root mean squared residues of FC determined from both PTFs were about 0.02 m³ m- 3. The proposed method has the advantage of estimating the soil in situ FC using the water applied in the infiltration test.