Adverse selection, moral hazard, and outlier payment policy

In this article, we analyze the rationale for introducing outlier payments into a prospective payment system for hospitals under adverse selection and moral hazard. The payer has only two instruments: a fixed price for patients whose treatment cost is below a threshold and a cost-sharing rule for outlier patients. We show that a fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency, and dumping deterrence must be preferred. We show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially cost-based payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds, and the distribution of patients severity. [Authors]

Enhanced Model Selection for motion segmentation

In this paper a novel rank estimation technique for trajectories motion segmentation within the Local Subspace Affinity (LSA) framework is presented. This technique, called Enhanced Model Selection (EMS), is based on the relationship between the estimated rank of the trajectory matrix and the affinity matrix built by LSA. The results on synthetic and real data show that without any a priori knowledge, EMS automatically provides an accurate and robust rank estimation, improving the accuracy of the final motion segmentation

Evolution of the correlation between expression divergence and protein divergence in mammals.

Divergence of protein sequences and gene expression patterns are two fundamental mechanisms that generate organismal diversity. Here, we have used genome and transcriptome data from eight mammals and one bird to study the positive correlation of these two processes throughout mammalian evolution. We demonstrate that the correlation is stable over time and most pronounced in neural tissues, which indicates that it is the result of strong negative selection. The correlation is not driven by genes with specific functions and may instead best be viewed as an evolutionary default state, which can nevertheless be evaded by certain gene types. In particular, genes with developmental and neural functions are skewed toward changes in gene expression, consistent with selection against pleiotropic effects associated with changes in protein sequences. Surprisingly, we find that the correlation between expression divergence and protein divergence is not explained by between-gene variation in expression level, tissue specificity, protein connectivity, or other investigated gene characteristics, suggesting that it arises independently of these gene traits. The selective constraints on protein sequences and gene expression patterns also fluctuate in a coordinate manner across phylogenetic branches: We find that gene-specific changes in the rate of protein evolution in a specific mammalian lineage tend to be accompanied by similar changes in the rate of expression evolution. Taken together, our findings highlight many new aspects of the correlation between protein divergence and expression divergence, and attest to its role as a fundamental property of mammalian genome evolution.

Selection on a eumelanic ornament is stronger in the tropics than in temperate zones in the worldwide-distributed barn owl.

Spatial variation in the pattern of natural selection can promote local adaptation and genetic differentiation between populations. Because heritable melanin-based ornaments can signal resistance to environmentally mediated elevation in glucocorticoids, to oxidative stress and parasites, populations may vary in the mean degree of melanic coloration if selection on these phenotypic aspects varies geographically. Within a population of Swiss barn owls (Tyto alba), the size of eumelanic spots is positively associated with survival, immunity and resistance to stress, but it is yet unknown whether Tyto species that face stressful environments evolved towards a darker eumelanic plumage. Because selection regimes vary along environmental gradients, we examined whether melanin-based traits vary clinally and are expressed to a larger extent in the tropics where parasites are more abundant than in temperate zones. To this end, we considered 39 barn owl species distributed worldwide. Barn owl species living in the tropics displayed larger eumelanic spots than those found in temperate zones. This was, however, verified in the northern hemisphere only. Parasites being particularly abundant in the tropics, they may promote the evolution of darker eumelanic ornaments.

A novel method for automated classification of epileptiform activity in the human electroencephalogram-based on independent component analysis.

Diagnosis of several neurological disorders is based on the detection of typical pathological patterns in the electroencephalogram (EEG). This is a time-consuming task requiring significant training and experience. Automatic detection of these EEG patterns would greatly assist in quantitative analysis and interpretation. We present a method, which allows automatic detection of epileptiform events and discrimination of them from eye blinks, and is based on features derived using a novel application of independent component analysis. The algorithm was trained and cross validated using seven EEGs with epileptiform activity. For epileptiform events with compensation for eyeblinks, the sensitivity was 65 +/- 22% at a specificity of 86 +/- 7% (mean +/- SD). With feature extraction by PCA or classification of raw data, specificity reduced to 76 and 74%, respectively, for the same sensitivity. On exactly the same data, the commercially available software Reveal had a maximum sensitivity of 30% and concurrent specificity of 77%. Our algorithm performed well at detecting epileptiform events in this preliminary test and offers a flexible tool that is intended to be generalized to the simultaneous classification of many waveforms in the EEG.

Portafolio selection with skewness: a comparison of methods and a generalized two fund separation result

This contribution compares existing and newly developed techniques for geometrically representing mean-variances-kewness portfolio frontiers based on the rather widely adapted methodology of polynomial goal programming (PGP) on the one hand and the more recent approach based on the shortage function on the other hand. Moreover, we explain the working of these different methodologies in detail and provide graphical illustrations. Inspired by these illustrations, we prove a generalization of the well-known two fund separation theorem from traditionalmean-variance portfolio theory.

Subject-based steroid profiling and the determination of novel biomarkers for DHT and DHEA misuse in sports.

Doping with natural steroids can be detected by evaluating the urinary concentrations and ratios of several endogenous steroids. Since these biomarkers of steroid doping are known to present large inter-individual variations, monitoring of individual steroid profiles over time allows switching from population-based towards subject-based reference ranges for improved detection. In an Athlete Biological Passport (ABP), biomarkers data are collated throughout the athlete's sporting career and individual thresholds defined adaptively. For now, this approach has been validated on a limited number of markers of steroid doping, such as the testosterone (T) over epitestosterone (E) ratio to detect T misuse in athletes. Additional markers are required for other endogenous steroids like dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). By combining comprehensive steroid profiles composed of 24 steroid concentrations with Bayesian inference techniques for longitudinal profiling, a selection was made for the detection of DHT and DHEA misuse. The biomarkers found were rated according to relative response, parameter stability, discriminative power, and maximal detection time. This analysis revealed DHT/E, DHT/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol and 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol as best biomarkers for DHT administration and DHEA/E, 16α-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E, 7β-hydroxydehydroepiandrosterone/E and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol/5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol for DHEA. The selected biomarkers were found suitable for individual referencing. A drastic overall increase in sensitivity was obtained. The use of multiple markers as formalized in an Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP) can provide firm evidence of doping with endogenous steroids.

Impact of Pre-Existing Immunity on the Selection of Rare Adenovirus Vector Candidates: Implications for HIV Vaccine Development

Background: Adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) phase IIb vaccine trial (STEP) was prematurely stopped due to a lack of efficacy and two-fold higher incidence of HIV infection among Ad5 seropositive vaccine recipients. We have recently demonstrated that Ad5 immune complexes (Ad5 ICs)-mediated activation of the dendritic cell (DC)-T cell axis was associated with the enhancement of HIV infection in vitro. Although the direct role of Ad5 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) in the increase of HIV susceptibility during the STEP trial is still under debate, vector-specific NAbs remain a major hurdle for vector-based gene therapies or vaccine strategies. To surmount this obstacle, vectors based on ''rare'' Ad serotypes including Ad6, Ad26, Ad36 and Ad41 were engineered.Methods: The present study aimed to determine whether Ad ICmediated DC maturation could be circumvented using these Advector candidates.Results: We found that all Ad vectors tested forming ICs with plasma containing serotype-specific NAbs had the capacity to 1) mature human DCs as monitored by the up-regulation of costimulatory molecules and the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF-a), via the stabilization of Ad capsid at endosomal but not lysosomal pH rendering Ad DNA/TLR9 interactions possible and 2) potentiate Ad-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses.Conclusion: In conclusion, despite a conserved DC maturation potential, the low prevalence of serotype-specific NAbs renders rare Ad vectors attractive for vaccine strategies.

Vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus selected during vancomycin therapy of experimental endocarditis are not detected by culture-based diagnostic procedures and persist after treatment arrest.

OBJECTIVES: Laboratory detection of vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (VISA) and their heterogeneous VISA (hVISA) precursors is difficult. Thus, it is possible that vancomycin failures against supposedly vancomycin-susceptible S. aureus are due to undiagnosed VISA or hVISA. We tested this hypothesis in experimental endocarditis.¦METHODS: Rats with aortic valve infection due to the vancomycin-susceptible (MIC 2 mg/L), methicillin-resistant S. aureus M1V2 were treated for 2 days with doses of vancomycin that mimicked the pharmacokinetics seen in humans following intravenous administration of 1 g of the drug every 12 h. Half of the treated animals were killed 8 h after treatment arrest and half 3 days thereafter. Population analyses were done directly on vegetation homogenates or after one subculture in drug-free medium to mimic standard diagnostic procedures.¦RESULTS: Vancomycin cured 14 of 26 animals (54%; P<0.05 versus controls) after 2 days of treatment. When vegetation homogenates were plated directly on vancomycin-containing plates, 6 of 13 rats killed 8 h after treatment arrest had positive cultures, 1 of which harboured hVISA. Likewise, 6 of 13 rats killed 3 days thereafter had positive valve cultures, 5 of which harboured hVISA. However, one subculture of vegetations in drug-free broth was enough to revert all the hVISA phenotypes to the susceptible pattern of the parent. Thus, vancomycin selected for hVISA during therapy of experimental endocarditis due to vancomycin-susceptible S. aureus. These hVISA were associated with vancomycin failure. The hVISA phenotype persisted in vivo, even after vancomycin arrest, but was missed in vitro after a single passage of the vegetation homogenate on drug-free medium.¦CONCLUSIONS: hVISA might escape detection in clinical samples if they are subcultured before susceptibility tests.

Aalenian to Cenomanian Radiolaria of the Bermeja Complex (Puerto Rico) and Pacific origin of radiolarites on the Caribbean Plate

The study of the radiolarian ribbon chert is a key in determining the origins of associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes and may help to achieve a general agreement regarding the basic principles on the evolution of the Caribbean Plate. The Bermeja Complex of Puerto Rico, which contains serpentinized peridotite, altered basalt, amphibolite, and chert (Mariquita Chert Formation), is one of these crucial oceanic terranes. The radiolarian biochronology presented in this work is mainly based by correlation on the biozonations of Baumgartner et al. (1995) and O'Dogherty (1994) and indicates an early Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Bajocian-early Callovian to late early Albian-early middle Cenomanian) age. The illustrated assemblages contain about 120 species, of which one is new (Pantanellium karinae), and belonging to about 50 genera. A review of the previous radiolarian published works on the Mariquita Chert Formation and the results of this study suggest that this formation ranges in age from Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Aalenian to early-middle Cenomanian) and also reveal a possible feature of the Bermeja Complex, which is the younging of radiolarian cherts from north to south, evoking a polarity of accretion. On the basis of a currently exhaustive inventory of the radiolarite facies s.s. on the Caribbean Plate, a re-examination of the regional distribution of Middle Jurassic sediments associated with oceanic crust, and a paleoceanographic argumentation on the water currents, we come to the conclusion that the radiolarite and associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes of the Caribbean Plate are of Pacific origin. Eventually, a discussion on the origin of the cherts of the Mariquita Formation illustrated by Middle Jurassic to middle Cretaceous geodynamic models of the Pacific and Caribbean realms bring up the possibility that the rocks of the Bermeja Complex are remnants of two different oceans.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

The evolution of XY recombination: sexually antagonistic selection versus deleterious mutation load.

Recombination arrest between X and Y chromosomes, driven by sexually antagonistic genes, is expected to induce their progressive differentiation. However, in contrast to birds and mammals (which display the predicted pattern), most cold-blooded vertebrates have homomorphic sex chromosomes. Two main hypotheses have been proposed to account for this, namely high turnover rates of sex-determining systems and occasional XY recombination. Using individual-based simulations, we formalize the evolution of XY recombination (here mediated by sex reversal; the "fountain-of-youth" model) under the contrasting forces of sexually antagonistic selection and deleterious mutations. The shift between the domains of elimination and accumulation occurs at much lower selection coefficients for the Y than for the X. In the absence of dosage compensation, mildly deleterious mutations accumulating on the Y depress male fitness, thereby providing incentives for XY recombination. Under our settings, this occurs via "demasculinization" of the Y, allowing recombination in XY (sex-reversed) females. As we also show, this generates a conflict with the X, which coevolves to oppose sex reversal. The resulting rare events of XY sex reversal are enough to purge the Y from its load of deleterious mutations. Our results support the "fountain of youth" as a plausible mechanism to account for the maintenance of sex-chromosome homomorphy.

The Lausanne cohort Lc65+: a population-based prospective study of the manifestations, determinants and outcomes of frailty

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a relatively new geriatric concept referring to an increased vulnerability to stressors. Various definitions have been proposed, as well as a range of multidimensional instruments for its measurement. More recently, a frailty phenotype that predicts a range of adverse outcomes has been described. Understanding frailty is a particular challenge both from a clinical and a public health perspective because it may be a reversible precursor of functional dependence. The Lausanne cohort Lc65+ is a longitudinal study specifically designed to investigate the manifestations of frailty from its first signs in the youngest old, identify medical and psychosocial determinants, and describe its evolution and related outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through questionnaires, examination and performance tests. It comprised a wide range of medical and psychosocial dimensions, including a life course history of adverse events. Outcomes measures comprise subjective health, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, development of medical conditions or chronic health problems, falls, institutionalization, health services utilization, and death. Two additional random samples of 65-70 years old subjects will be surveyed in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943) and in 2014 (birth year 1944-1948). DISCUSSION: The Lc65+ study focuses on the sequence "Determinants --> Components --> Consequences" of frailty. It currently provides information on health in the youngest old and will allow comparisons to be made between the profiles of aging individuals born before, during and at the end of the Second World War.

The evolutionary history of the CD209 (DC-SIGN) family in humans and non-human primates

The CD209 gene family that encodes C-type lectins in primates includes CD209 (DC-SIGN), CD209L (L-SIGN) and CD209L2. Understanding the evolution of these genes can help understand the duplication events generating this family, the process leading to the repeated neck region and identify protein domains under selective pressure. We compiled sequences from 14 primates representing 40 million years of evolution and from three non-primate mammal species. Phylogenetic analyses used Bayesian inference, and nucleotide substitutional patterns were assessed by codon-based maximum likelihood. Analyses suggest that CD209 genes emerged from a first duplication event in the common ancestor of anthropoids, yielding CD209L2 and an ancestral CD209 gene, which, in turn, duplicated in the common Old World primate ancestor, giving rise to CD209L and CD209. K(A)/K(S) values averaged over the entire tree were 0.43 (CD209), 0.52 (CD209L) and 0.35 (CD209L2), consistent with overall signatures of purifying selection. We also assessed the Toll-like receptor (TLR) gene family, which shares with CD209 genes a common profile of evolutionary constraint. The general feature of purifying selection of CD209 genes, despite an apparent redundancy (gene absence and gene loss), may reflect the need to faithfully recognize a multiplicity of pathogen motifs, commensals and a number of self-antigens

Regulation of stress response is heritable and functionally linked to melanin-based coloration.

Abstract Sexual selection theory posits that ornaments can signal the genetic quality of an individual. Eumelanin-based coloration is such an ornament and can signal the ability to cope with a physiological stress response because the melanocortin system regulates eumelanogenesis as well as physiological stress responses. In the present article, we experimentally investigated whether the stronger stress sensitivity of light than dark eumelanic individuals stems from differential regulation of stress hormones. Our study shows that darker eumelanic barn owl nestlings have a lower corticosterone release after a stressful event, an association, which was also inherited from the mother (but not the father) to the offspring. Additionally, nestlings sired by darker eumelanic mothers more quickly reduced experimentally elevated corticosterone levels. This provides a solution as to how ornamented individuals can be more resistant to various sources of stress than drab conspecifics. Our study suggests that eumelanin-based coloration can be a sexually selected signal of resistance to stressful events.