A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Evaluation of two sweeping methods for estimating the number of immature Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in large containers

Introduction Here, we evaluated sweeping methods used to estimate the number of immature Aedes aegypti in large containers. Methods III/IV instars and pupae at a 9:1 ratio were placed in three types of containers with, each one with three different water levels. Two sweeping methods were tested: water-surface sweeping and five-sweep netting. The data were analyzed using linear regression. Results The five-sweep netting technique was more suitable for drums and water-tanks, while the water-surface sweeping method provided the best results for swimming pools. Conclusions Both sweeping methods are useful tools in epidemiological surveillance programs for the control of Aedes aegypti.

Comportamentos das famílias portuguesas em épocas de calor e durante a onda de calor de Agosto de 2003

RESUMO - Este estudo teve como principal objectivo a caracterização das atitudes e da adopção de medidas de protecção em períodos de calor e em particular conhecer aquelas que efectivamente foram adoptadas durante a onda de calor de Agosto de 2003 (29 de Julho a 15 de Agosto). Foi realizado um inquérito por via postal, aplicando um questionário aos indivíduos de 18 e mais anos das unidades de alojamento (UA), que constituem a amostra ECOS (Em Casa Observamos Saúde) do Observatório Nacional de Saúde. Estudaram-se 769 indivíduos, o que correspondeu a 25,6% da totalidade dos indivíduos elegíveis nas UA. Uma vez que a amostra ECOS não é autoponderada, foram ponderados os resultados das unidades de alojamento pela variável do Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) «número de famílias clássicas» por região e pela «população residente segundo o nível de instrução» obtidas pelos censos de 2001. Os comportamentos referidos como adoptados em épocas de calor que apresentaram maiores percentagens foram «tomar duches ou banhos» (84,6%), «ingestão de líquidos» (79,6%), «uso de roupa leve, larga e clara» (73,2%) e «tomar refeições leves» (53,7%). Durante a onda de calor de 2003, a maior parte da população (92,5%) leu, ouviu ou viu informação sobre os cuidados a ter durante a onda de calor, tendo sido a televisão (95,2%), a rádio (56,3%) e os jornais (49,3%) os meios de comunicação social mais referidos. Cerca de metade da população (51,4%) informou alguém, fundamentalmente a família, sobre os cuidados a ter. Com efeito, durante esta onda de calor verificou-se um maior cuidado em relação a comportamentos mais prejudiciais em épocas de maior calor. Por um lado, a população portuguesa andou menos ao sol (49,4%), fez menos viagens de carro/transportes à hora do calor (39,8%), realizou menos actividades que exigiriam esforço físico (32,5%) e também houve alguma preocupação em beber menos bebidas alcoólicas (26,5%). Por outro lado, aumentaram os comportamentos que já são mais habituais durante o período de Verão, tais como abrir as janelas durante a noite (40,8%), tomar refeições leves (46,7%), tomar mais duches ou banhos (58,5%), o uso de roupas leves largas e claras (42,5%) e o uso de ventoinhas (37,8%). A alteração do comportamento andar ou estar ao sol sem restrições aumenta com o número de meios de comunicação onde se obteve informação. Abrir as janelas de casa durante a noite e tomar duches ou banhos apresentou uma associação com o número de meios de comunicação onde se obteve informação e com o número de pessoas que prestaram informação. Ingerir líquidos e usar roupa leve, larga e clara mostrou também uma dependência do número de meios de comunicação onde se obteve informação.

Fishing territoriality and diversity between the ethnic populations Ashaninka and Kaxinawá ,Breu river, Brazil/Peru

This study describes the diversity and the subsistence fishing territoriality of traditional populations of a village Ashaninka and two Kaxinawá living at the margins of Breu River (Brasil/Peru). In general, samplings in the dwellings were carried out late in the afternoon, as the fishermen arrived in the village. The data were analysed in an exploratory way through the index of pondered dominance (ID%), by analysis of variance and by a correspondence analysis in order to determine the associations of the fish species and the fishing spots between the villages of the Indigenous Reserve. The results of the analysis of variance demonstrated that differences exist between the fish diversities of the catches. However, post-hoc tests only detected differences in diversities between the hand fishhook and the other fishing gears (bow and arrow, castnets and rotenone tingui). Although the use of bow and arrow resulted in a low capture (Kg), this fishing strategy is associated with a high fishing diversity, in terms of number of species. These results demonstrate that there is no overlap in the frequency of the visits to the fishing spots between the Ashaninka and Kaxinawá populations. This pattern is the same found for the correspondence analysis for the fish species, which describes the relationship between the deep pools environments exploited by the fishermen Ashaninka and Kaxinawá of Mourão. These ethnic populations still continue to maintain a strong cultural and cosmological tradition, with their territories defined in an informal way of the upper Juruá area.

On the Hill estimator: a comparison of methods

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with the occurrence of extreme phenomena. The tail index is a very important parameter appearing in the estimation of the probability of rare events. Under a semiparametric framework, inference requires the choice of a number k of upper order statistics to be considered. This is the crux of the matter and there is no definite formula to do it, since a small k leads to high variance and large values of k tend to increase the bias. Several methodologies have emerged in literature, specially concerning the most popular Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). In this work we compare through simulation well-known procedures presented in Drees and Kaufmann (1998), Matthys and Beirlant (2000), Beirlant et al. (2002) and de Sousa and Michailidis (2004), with a heuristic scheme considered in Frahm et al. (2005) within the estimation of a different tail measure but with a similar context. We will see that the new method may be an interesting alternative.

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

An algorithmic approach to estimating the minimal number of periodic points for smooth self-maps of simply-connected manifolds

For a given self-map f of M, a closed smooth connected and simply-connected manifold of dimension m ≥ 4, we provide an algorithm for estimating the values of the topological invariant Dm r [f], which equals the minimal number of r-periodic points in the smooth homotopy class of f. Our results are based on the combinatorial scheme for computing Dm r [f] introduced by G. Graff and J. Jezierski [J. Fixed Point Theory Appl. 13 (2013), 63–84]. An open-source implementation of the algorithm programmed in C++ is publicly available at http://www.pawelpilarczyk.com/combtop/.

Low f-number microlenses for integration on optical microsystems

This paper presents microlenses (MLs) with low f-number made of AZ4562 photoresist for integration on optical microsystems. The fabrication process was based on the thermal reflow and rehydration. Large series of MLs were fabricated with a width of 35 μm, a thickness of 5 μm, and spaced apart by 3 μm. The MLs were fabricated directly on the surface of a die with type n+/p-substrate junction photodiode fabricated in a standard CMOS process. The measured focal length was 49 μm with a tolerance of ±2 μm (maximum error of ±4%), resulting in a numerical aperture of 33.6 × 10-2 (±1.3 × 10-2). The measurements also revealed an f-number of 1.4.

Deteção remota na avaliação das alterações da cobertura do solo no Parque Nacional da Peneda-Gerês

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Genetic diversity and population structure in Vicia faba L. landraces and wild related species assessed by nuclear SSRs

Research Article

Plantae Asiaticae rariores, or, Descriptions and figures of a select number of unpublished East Indian plants /by N. Wallich.

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Plantae Asiaticae rariores, or, Descriptions and figures of a select number of unpublished East Indian plants /by N. Wallich.

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Plantae Asiaticae rariores, or, Descriptions and figures of a select number of unpublished East Indian plants /by N. Wallich.

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Development of an inspection regime for on-site domestic wastewater treatment systems

The overall purpose of this study was to develop a thorough inspection regime for onsite wastewater treatment systems, which is practical and could be implemented on all site conditions across the country. With approximately 450,000 onsite wastewater treatment systems in Ireland a risk based methodology is required for site selection. This type of approach will identify the areas with the highest potential risk to human health and the environment and these sites should be inspected first. In order to gain the required knowledge to develop an inspection regime in-depth and extensive research was earned out. The following areas of pertinent interest were examined and reviewed, history of domestic wastewater treatment, relevant wastewater legislation and guidance documents and potential detrimental impacts. Analysis of a questionnaire from a prior study, which assessed the resources available and the types of inspections currently undertaken by Local authorities was carried out. In addition to the analysis of the questionnaire results, interviews were carried out with several experts involved in the area of domestic wastewater treatment. The interview focussed on twelve key questions which were directed towards the expert’s opinions on the vital aspects of developing an inspection regime. The background research, combined with the questionnaire analysis and information from the interviews provided a solid foundation for the development of an inspection regime. Chapter 8 outlines the inspection regime which has been developed for this study. The inspection regime includes a desktop study, consultation with the homeowners, visual site inspection, non-invasive site tests, and inspection of the treatment systems. The general opinion from the interviews carried out, was that a standardised approach for the inspections was necessary. For this reason an inspection form was produced which provides a standard systematic approach for inspectors to follow. This form is displayed in Appendix 3. The development of a risk based methodology for site selection was discussed and a procedure similar in approach to the Geological Survey of Irelands Groundwater Protection Schemes was proposed. The EPA is currently developing a risk based methodology, but it is not available to the general public yet. However, the EPA provided a copy of a paper outlining the key aspects of their methodology. The methodology will use risk maps which take account of the following parameters: housing density, areas with inadequate soil conditions, risk of water pollution through surface and subsurface pathways. Sites identified with having the highest potential risk to human health and the environment shall be inspected first. Based on the research carried out a number of recommendations were made which are outlined in Chapter 10. The principle conclusion was that, if these systems fail to operate satisfactorily, home owners need to understand that these systems dispose of the effluent to the 'ground' and the effluent becomes part of the hydrological cycle; therefore, they are a potential hazard to the environment and human health. It is the owners, their families and their neighbours who will be at most immediate risk.