Determinants of biosecurity behaviour of British cattle and sheep farmers: a behavioural economics analysis

The paper analyses the impact of a priori determinants of biosecurity behaviour of farmers in Great Britain. We use a dataset collected through a stratified telephone survey of 900 cattle and sheep farmers in Great Britain (400 in England and a further 250 in Wales and Scotland respectively) which took place between 25 March 2010 and 18 June 2010. The survey was stratified by farm type, farm size and region. To test the influence of a priori determinants on biosecurity behaviour we used a behavioural economics method, structural equation modelling (SEM) with observed and latent variables. SEM is a statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships amongst variables, some of which may be latent using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. Thirteen latent variables were identified and extracted, expressing the behaviour and the underlying determining factors. The variables were: experience, economic factors, organic certification of farm, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, knowledge about biosecurity measures, perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, perceived effect (on farm business in the past five years) of welfare/health regulation, perceived effect of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, attitudes towards animal welfare, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures and biosecurity behaviour. The SEM model applied on the Great Britain sample has an adequate fit according to the measures of absolute, incremental and parsimonious fit. The results suggest that farmers’ perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, organic certification of farm, knowledge about biosecurity measures, attitudes towards animal welfare, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, perceived effect on business during the past five years of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures, experience and economic factors are significantly influencing behaviour (overall explaining 64% of the variance in behaviour).

Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

Occurrence probability, width and number of steps of cusp precipitation for fully pulsed reconnection at the dayside magnetopause

We discuss the characteristics of magnetosheath plasma precipitation in the “cusp” ionosphere for when the reconnection at the dayside magnetopause takes place only in a series of pulses. It is shown that even in this special case, the low-altitude cusp precipitation is continuous, unless the intervals between the pulses are longer than observed intervals between magnetopause flux transfer event (FTE) signatures. We use FTE observation statistics to predict, for this case of entirely pulsed reconnection, the occurrence frequency, the distribution of latitudinal widths, and the number of ion dispersion steps of the cusp precipitation for a variety of locations of the reconnection site and a range of values of the local de-Hoffman Teller velocity. It is found that the cusp occurrence frequency is comparable with observed values for virtually all possible locations of the reconnection site. The distribution of cusp width is also comparable with observations and is shown to be largely dependent on the distribution of the mean reconnection rate, but pulsing the reconnection does very slightly increase the width of that distribution compared with the steady state case. We conclude that neither cusp occurrence probability nor width can be used to evaluate the relative occurrence of reconnection behaviors that are entirely pulsed, pulsed but continuous and quasi-steady. We show that the best test of the relative frequency of these three types of reconnection is to survey the distribution of steps in the cusp ion dispersion characteristics.

Bond graph models of DC-DC converters operating in both CCM and DCM

In this paper, Bond Graphs are employed to develop a novel mathematical model of conventional switched-mode DC-DC converters valid for both continuous and discontinuous conduction modes. A unique causality bond graph model of hybrid models is suggested with the operation of the switch and the diode to be represented by a Modulated Transformer with a binary input and a resistor with fixed conductance causality. The operation of the diode is controlled using an if-then function within the model. The extracted hybrid model is implemented on a Boost and Buck converter with their operations to change from CCM to DCM and to return to CCM. The vector fields of the models show validity in a wide operation area and comparison with the simulation of the converters using PSPICE reveals high accuracy of the proposed model, with the Normalised Root Means Square Error and the Maximum Absolute Error remaining adequately low. The model is also experimentally tested on a Buck topology.

Do consumers want public or private bodies to monitor animal friendly production and marketing schemes? And does trust matter?

Producing according to enhanced farm animal welfare (FAW) standards increases costs along the livestock value chain, especially for monitoring certified animal friendly products. In the choice between public or private bodies for carrying out and monitoring certification, consumer preferences and trust play a role. We explore this issue by applying logit analysis involving socio-economic and psychometric variables to survey data from Italy. Results identify marked consumer preferences for public bodies and trust in stakeholders a key determinant.

The role of index trading in price formation in the grains and oilseeds markets

We use both Granger-causality and instrumental variables (IV) methods to examine the impact of index fund positions on price returns for the main US grains and oilseed futures markets. Our analysis supports earlier conclusions that Granger-causal impacts are generally not discernible. However, market microstructure theory suggests trading impacts should be instantaneous. IV-based tests for contemporaneous causality provide stronger evidence of price impact. We find even stronger evidence that changes in index positions can help predict future changes in aggregate commodity price indices. This result suggests that changes in index investment are in part driven by information which predicts commodity price changes over the coming months.

Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant roots by mycorrhizal fungi. Here we quantify the global patterns of these relationships. Location Global. Methods Data on plant root colonization intensities by the two dominant types of mycorrhizal fungi world-wide, arbuscular (4887 plant species in 233 sites) and ectomycorrhizal fungi (125 plant species in 92 sites), were compiled from published studies. Data for climatic and soil factors were extracted from global datasets. For a given mycorrhizal type, we calculated at each site the mean root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi across all potentially mycorrhizal plant species found at the site, and subjected these data to generalized additive model regression analysis with environmental factors as predictor variables. Results We show for the first time that at the global scale the intensity of plant root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi strongly relates to warm-season temperature, frost periods and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and is highest at sites featuring continental climates with mild summers and a high availability of soil nitrogen. In contrast, the intensity of ectomycorrhizal infection in plant roots is related to soil acidity, soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and seasonality of precipitation, and is highest at sites with acidic soils and relatively constant precipitation levels. Main conclusions We provide the first quantitative global maps of intensity of mycorrhizal colonization based on environmental drivers, and suggest that environmental changes will affect distinct types of mycorrhizae differently. Future analyses of the potential effects of environmental change on global carbon and nutrient cycling via mycorrhizal pathways will need to take into account the relationships discovered in this study.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Post-conflict recovery and peacebuilding

Civil wars are the most common type of large scale violent conflict. They are long, brutal and continue to harm societies long after the shooting stops. Post-conflict countries face extraordinary challenges with respect to development and security. In this paper we examine how countries can recover economically from these devastating conflicts and how international interventions can help to build lasting peace. We revisit the aid and growth debate and confirm that aid does not increase growth in general. However, we find that countries experience increased growth after the end of the war and that aid helps to make the most of this peace dividend. However, aid is only growth enhancing when the violence has stopped, in violent post-war societies aid has no growth enhancing effect. We also find that good governance is robustly correlated with growth, however we cannot confirm that aid increases growth conditional on good policies. We examine various aspects of aid and governance by disaggregating the aid and governance variables. Our analysis does not provide a clear picture of which types of aid and policy should be prioritized. We find little evidence for a growth enhancing effect of UN missions and suggest that case studies may provide better insight into the relationship between security guarantees and economic stabilization.

Risks Associated With Tendinitis: Effects From Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Psychological Status Among Brazilian Workers

Background Self-reported tendinitis/tenosynovitis was evaluated by gender, age group, skin color, family income, and educational and psychological status. Methods The study was carried out in a representative sample of formally contracted Brazilian workers from a household survey. A total of 54,660 participants were included. Occupations were stratified according to estimated prevalences of self-reported injuries. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed, and all variables were analyzed in two occupational groups. Results The overall prevalence rate of tendinitis/tenosynovitis was 3.1%: 5.5% in high-prevalence occupations (n=10,726); and 2.5% in low-prevalence occupations (n=43,934). White female workers between the ages of 45 and 64 years and at a higher socioeconomic level were more likely to report tendinitis/tenosynovitis regardless of their occupational category. An adjusted OR = 3.59 [95% CI: 3.15-4.09] was found between tendinitis/tenosynovitis and psychological status. Conclusion Among formally contracted Brazilian workers, higher income can imply greater physical and psychological demands that, regardless of occupational stratum, increase the risk of tendinitis/tenosynovitis. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:72-79, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Multilevel analysis of hepatitis A infection in children and adolescents: a household survey in the Northeast and Central-west regions of Brazil

Background The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis A among children and adolescents from the Northeast and Midwest regions and the Federal District of Brazil and to identify individual-, household- and area-levels factors associated with hepatitis A infection. Methods This population-based survey was conducted in 20042005 and covered individuals aged between 5 and 19 years. A stratified multistage cluster sampling technique with probability proportional to size was used to select 1937 individuals aged between 5 and 19 years living in the Federal capital and in the State capitals of 12 states in the study regions. The sample was stratified according to age (59 and 10- to 19-years-old) and capital within each region. Individual- and household-level data were collected by interview at the home of the individual. Variables related to the area were retrieved from census tract data. The outcome was total antibodies to hepatitis A virus detected using commercial EIA. The age distribution of the susceptible population was estimated using a simple catalytic model. The associations between HAV infection and independent variables were assessed using the odds ratio and corrected for the random design effect and sampling weight. Multilevel analysis was performed by GLLAMM using Stata 9.2. Results The prevalence of hepatitis A infection in the 59 and 1019 age-group was 41.5 and 57.4, respectively for the Northeast, 32.3 and 56.0, respectively for the Midwest and 33.8 and 65.1 for the Federal District. A trend for the prevalence of HAV infection to increase according to age was detected in all sites. By the age of 5, 31.5 of the children had already been infected with HAV in the Northeast region compared with 20.0 in the other sites. By the age of 19 years, seropositivity was 70 in all areas. The curves of susceptible populations differed from one area to another. Multilevel modeling showed that variables relating to different levels of education were associated with HAV infection in all sites. Conclusion The study sites were classified as areas with intermediate endemicity area for hepatitis A infection. Differences in age trends of infection were detected among settings. This multilevel model allowed for quantification of contextual predictors of hepatitis A infection in urban areas.

Dietary Quality Index and Associated Factors among Adolescents of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective To assess dietary quality and associated factors in adolescents. Study design We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in a sample of 1584 adolescents living in areas of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Dietary intake was measured with the 24-hour recall method, and dietary quality was assessed by means of the Health Eating Index (HEI), adapted to fit to the local requirements. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the HEI and demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle variables. Results A total of 97.1% of the adolescents studied had an inadequate diet or a diet that needed improvement. The mean overall HEI score was 59.7. Lower mean HEI scores were found for fruits, dairy products, and vegetables. Male adolescents who were physically active and lived in a house or apartment had higher HEI scores. The multiple regression analyses showed that the quality of the diet improved as age decreased. Adolescents who lived in houses or apartments had higher HEI scores than adolescents living in shacks or slums, regardless of age and energy intake. Conclusions Dietary quality is associated with income and age. A better understanding of the factors associated can provide input to the formulation of policies and development of nutritional actions. (J Pediatr 2010; 156:456-60).

Explaining sleep duration in adolescents: The impact of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors and working status

Previous studies found students who both work and attend school undergo a partial sleep deprivation that accumulates across the week. The aim of the present study was to obtain information using a questionnaire on a number of variables (e.g., socio-demographics, lifestyle, work timing, and sleep-wake habits) considered to impact on sleep duration of working (n = 51) and non-working (n = 41) high-school students aged 14-21 yrs old attending evening classes (19:00-22:30h) at a public school in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected for working days and days off. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with sleep duration on weekdays and weekends. Work, sex, age, smoking, consumption of alcohol and caffeine, and physical activity were considered control variables. Significant predictors of sleep duration were: work (p < 0.01), daily work duration (8-10h/day; p < 0.01), sex (p = 0.04), age 18-21 yrs (0.01), smoking (p = 0.02) and drinking habits (p = 0.03), irregular physical exercise (p < 0.01), ease of falling asleep (p = 0.04), and the sleep-wake cycle variables of napping (p < 0.01), nocturnal awakenings (p < 0.01), and mid-sleep regularity (p < 0.01). The results confirm the hypotheses that young students who work and attend school showed a reduction in night-time sleep duration. Sleep deprivation across the week, particularly in students working 8-10h/day, is manifested through a sleep rebound (i.e., extended sleep duration) on Saturdays. However, the different roles played by socio-demographic and lifestyle variables have proven to be factors that intervene with nocturnal sleep duration. The variables related to the sleep-wake cyclenaps and night awakeningsproved to be associated with a slight reduction in night-time sleep, while regularity in sleep and wake-up schedules was shown to be associated with more extended sleep duration, with a distinct expression along the week and the weekend. Having to attend school and work, coupled with other socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, creates an unfavorable scenario for satisfactory sleep duration.

Working at night and work ability among nursing personnel: when precarious employment makes the difference

To test the association between night work and work ability, and verify whether the type of contractual employment has any influence over this association. Permanent workers (N = 642) and workers with precarious jobs (temporary contract or outsourced; N = 552) were interviewed and filled out questionnaires concerning work hours and work ability index. They were classified into: never worked at night, ex-night workers, currently working up to five nights, and currently working at least six nights/2-week span. After adjusting for socio-demography and work variables, current night work was significantly associated with inadequate WAI (vs. day work with no experience in night work) only for precarious workers (OR 2.00, CI 1.01-3.95 and OR 1.85, CI 1.09-3.13 for those working up to five nights and those working at least six nights in 2 weeks, respectively). Unequal opportunities at work and little experience in night work among precarious workers may explain their higher susceptibility to night work.

Self-reported Body Changes and Associated Factors in Persons Living with HIV

The study aimed at verifying the associated factors of self-perceived body changes in adults living with HIV in highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. This cross-sectional study was conducted among people living with HIV on HAART for at least three months. A standardized questionnaire was used for assessing self-perceived body changes. Associated factors relating to self-reported body changes in people living with HIV (PLHIV) were assessed with Student`s t-test and chi-square test. In total, 507 patients were evaluated. The mean time since diagnosis was 6.6 years [standard deviation (SD)+/-4.1], and the mean duration of HAART was 5.1 years (SD+/-3.3). Self-perceived body changes were reported by 79.5% of the participants and were associated with viral load and duration of HAART. Fibre intake was lower among males who gained in abdominal fat (p=0.035). HAART-related body changes were reported by the large majority of the population and were associated with demographic and clinical variables.