Estimation of the abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, by age groups and regions within the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Monthly estimates of the abundance of yellowfin tuna by age groups and regions within the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1988 are made, using purse-seine catch rates, length-frequency samples, and results from cohort analysis. The numbers of individuals caught of each age group in each logged purse-seine set are estimated, using the tonnage from that set and length-frequency distribution from the "nearest" length-frequency sample(s). Nearest refers to the closest length frequency sample(s) to the purse-seine set in time, distance, and set type (dolphin associated, floating object associated, skipjack associated, none of these, and some combinations). Catch rates are initially calculated as the estimated number of individuals of the age group caught per hour of searching. Then, to remove the effects of set type and vessel speed, they are standardized, using separate weiznted generalized linear models for each age group. The standardized catch rates at the center of each 2.5 0 quadrangle-month are estimated, using locally-weighted least-squares regressions on latitude, longitude and date, and then combined into larger regions. Catch rates within these regions are converted to numbers of yellowfin, using the mean age composition from cohort analysis. The variances of the abundance estimates within regions are large for 0-, 1-, and 5-year-olds, but small for 1.5- to 4-year-olds, except during periods of low fishing activity. Mean annual catch rate estimates for the entire eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly positively correlated with mean abundance estimates from cohort analysis for age groups ranging from 1.5 to 4 years old. Catch-rate indices of abundance by age are expected to be useful in conjunction with data on reproductive biology to estimate total egg production within regions. The estimates may also be useful in understanding geographic and temporal variations in age-specific availability to purse seiners, as well as age-specific movements. SPANISH: Se calculan estimaciones mensuales de la abundancia del atún aleta amarilla por grupos de edad y regiones en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1970-1988, usando tasas de captura cerquera, muestras de frecuencia de talla, y los resultados del análisis de cohortes. Se estima el número de individuos capturados de cada grupo de edad en cada lance cerquero registrado, usando el tonelaje del lance en cuestión y la distribución de frecuencia de talla de la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla "más cercana/s)," "Más cercana" significa la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla más parecida(s) al lance cerquero en cuanto a fecha, distancia, y tipo de lance (asociado con delfines, con objeto flotante, con barrilete, con ninguno de éstos, y algunas combinaciones). Se calculan inicialmente las tasas de captura como el número estimado de individuos del grupo de edad capturado por hora de búsqueda. A continuación, para eliminar los efectos del tipo de lance y la velocidad del barco, se estandardizan dichas tasas, usando un modelo lineal generalizado ponderado, para cada grupo por separado. Se estima la tasa de captura estandardizada al centro de cada cuadrángulo de 2.5°-mes, usando regresiones de mínimos cuadrados ponderados localmente por latitud, longitud, y fecha, y entonces combinándolas en regiones mayores. Se convierten las tasas de captura dentro de estas regiones en números de aletas amarillas individuales, usando el número promedio por edad proveniente del análisis de cohortes. Las varianzas de las estimaciones de la abundancia dentro de las regiones son grandes para los peces de O, 1, Y5 años de edad, pero pequeñas para aquellos de entre 1.5 Y4 años de edad, excepto durante períodos de poca actividad pesquera. Las estimaciones de la tasa de captura media anual para todo el Océano Pacífico oriental están correlacionadas positivamente de forma significativa con las estimaciones de la abundancia media del análisis de las cohortes para los grupos de edad de entre 1.5 y 4 años. Se espera que los índices de abundancia por edad basados en las tasas de captura sean útiles, en conjunto con datos de la biología reproductiva, para estimar la producción total de huevos por regiones. Las estimaciones podrían asimismo ser útiles para la comprensión de las variaciones geográficas y temporales de la disponibilidad específica por edad a los barcos cerqueros, y también las migraciones específicas por edad. (PDF contains 35 pages.)

Panama City Fisheries Resources Office: FY 2003 Annual Report

HIGHLIGHTS FOR FY 2003 1. Continued a 3-year threatened Gulf sturgeon population estimate in the Escambia River, Florida and conducted presence-absence surveys in 4 other Florida river systems and 1 bay. 2. Five juvenile Gulf sturgeon collected, near the mouth of the Choctawhatchee River, Florida, were equipped with sonic tags and monitored while over-wintering in Choctawhatchee Bay. 3. Continued to examine Gulf sturgeon marine habitat use. 4. Implemented Gulf Striped Bass Restoration Plan by coordinating the 20th Annual Morone Workshop, leading the technical committee, transporting broodfish, and coordinating the stocking on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river system. 5. Over 73,000 Phase II Gulf striped bass were marked with sequential coded wire tags and stocked in the Apalachicola River. Post-stocking evaluations were conducted at 31 sites. 6. Three stream fisheries assessment s were completed to evaluate the fish community at sites slated for habitat restoration by the Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program (PFW). 7. PFW program identified restoration needs and opportunities for 10 areas. 8. Developed an Unpaved Road Evaluation Handbook. 9. Completed restoration of Chipola River Greenway, Seibenhener Streambank Restoration, Blackwater River State Forest, and Anderson Property. 10. Assessments for fluvial geomorphic conditions for design criteria were completed for 3 projects. 11. Geomorphology in Florida streams initiated development of Rosgen regional curves for Northwest Florida for use by the Florida Department of Transportation. 12. Developed a Memorandum of Understanding between partners for enhancing, protecting, and restoring stream, wetland, and upland habitat in northwest Florida 13. Completed aquatic fauna and fish surveys with new emphasis on integration of data from reach level into watershed and landscape scale and keeping database current. 14. Compliance based sampling of impaired waterbodies on Eglin Air Force Base in conjunction with Florida Department of Environmental Protection for Total Maximum Daily Load development support. 15. Surveyed 20 sites for the federally endangered Okaloosa darter, provided habitat descriptions, worked with partners to implement key recovery tasks and set priorities for restoration. 16. Worked with partners to develop a freshwater mussel survey protocol to provide standard operating procedures for establishing the presence/absence of federally listed mussel species within a Federal project area. 17. GIS database was created to identify all known freshwater mussel records from the northeast Gulf ecosystem. 18. Completed recovery plan for seven freshwater mussels and drafted candidate elevation package for seven additional mussels. Developed proposals to implement recovery plan. 19. Worked with Corps of Engineers and State partners to develop improved reservoir operating policies to benefit both riverine and reservoir fisheries for the ACF river system. 20. Multiple outreach projects were completed to detail aquatic resources conservation opportunities. 21. Multiple stream restoration and watershed management projects initiated or completed (see Appendix A).

A block SPP algorithm for multidimensional tridiagonal equations with optimal message vector length

A parallel strategy for solving multidimensional tridiagonal equations is investigated in this paper. We present in detail an improved version of single parallel partition (SPP) algorithm in conjunction with message vectorization, which aggregates several communication messages into one to reduce the communication cost. We show the resulting block SPP can achieve good speedup for a wide range of message vector length (MVL), especially when the number of grid points in the divided direction is large. Instead of only using the largest possible MVL, we adopt numerical tests and modeling analysis to determine an optimal MVL so that significant improvement in speedup can be obtained.

On optimal message vector length for block single parallel partition algorithm in a three-dimensional ADI solver

It has long been recognized that many direct parallel tridiagonal solvers are only efficient for solving a single tridiagonal equation of large sizes, and they become inefficient when naively used in a three-dimensional ADI solver. In order to improve the parallel efficiency of an ADI solver using a direct parallel solver, we implement the single parallel partition (SPP) algorithm in conjunction with message vectorization, which aggregates several communication messages into one to reduce the communication costs. The measured performances show that the longest allowable message vector length (MVL) is not necessarily the best choice. To understand this observation and optimize the performance, we propose an improved model that takes the cache effect into consideration. The optimal MVL for achieving the best performance is shown to depend on number of processors and grid sizes. Similar dependence of the optimal MVL is also found for the popular block pipelined method.

MEASUREMENT OF SOLID SLURRY FLOW VIA CORRELATION OF ELECTROMAGNETIC FLOW METER, ELECTRICAL RESISTANCE TOMOGRAPHY AND MECHANISTIC MODELLING

The study presented here was carried out to obtain the actual solids flow rate by the combination of electrical resistance tomography and electromagnetic flow meter. A new in-situ measurement method based on measurements of the Electromagnetic Flow Meters (EFM) and Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) to study the flow rates of individual phases in a vertical flow was proposed. The study was based on laboratory experiments that were carried out with a 50 mm vertical flow rig for a number of sand concentrations and different mixture velocities. A range of sand slurries with median particle size from 212 mu m to 355 mu m was tested. The solid concentration by volume covered was 5% and 15%, and the corresponding density of 5% was 1078 kg/m(3) and of 15% was 1238 kg/m(3). The flow velocity was between 1.5 m/s and 3.0 m/s. A total of 6 experimental tests were conducted. The equivalent liquid model was adopted to validate in-situ volumetric solids fraction and calculate the slip velocity. The results show that the ERT technique can be used in conjunction with an electromagnetic flow meter as a way of measurement of slurry flow rate in a vertical pipe flow. However it should be emphasized that the EFM results must be treated with reservation when the flow pattern at the EFM mounting position is a non-homogenous flow. The flow rate obtained by the EFM should be corrected considering the slip velocity and the flow pattern.

An appraisal of the current status of the fisheries of Eleiyele Reservoir by its fisheries cooperatives

In a study undertaken to evaluate the status of the fisheries of Eleiyele Reservoir (Nigeria) between 1995 and 1997, thermal stratification was observed to breakdown between December and March. Of the physico-chemical variables, transparency was positively correlated (p<0.05) with primary productivity, conductivity and dissolved oxygen concentration. Primary productivity ranged between 0.38mgC/m super(2)/d and 3.OmgC/ m super(2)/d, being lowest in April. BOD values ranged between 1.3mg-2.2mgO/l indicative of clean unpolluted water. Nine fish species belonging to the families Cichlidae, Centropomidae and Mochokidae were identified. Cichlids were the most abundant with Hemichromis species being predominant. Fishing was only carried out in the reservoir during the dry season months of November to April. Fish landing data for the reservoir, obtained from the Fisheries Division of the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural resources, Oyo State, in conjunction with comparative data from the Cooperative fishermen was low. It demonstrated a decreasing trend from January to April and during the period between 1985 and 1996, when compared with data collected in 1985 and 1986 from a previous similar study. Reasons for the low fish yield from the reservoir are discussed and compared with other Nigerian reservoirs

I. Exact solution of some nonlinear evolution equations. II. The similarity solution for the Korteweg-De Vries equation and the related Painleve Transcendent

In Part I, a method for finding solutions of certain diffusive dispersive nonlinear evolution equations is introduced. The method consists of a straightforward iteration procedure, applied to the equation as it stands (in most cases), which can be carried out to all terms, followed by a summation of the resulting infinite series, sometimes directly and other times in terms of traces of inverses of operators in an appropriate space.

We first illustrate our method with Burgers' and Thomas' equations, and show how it quickly leads to the Cole-Hopft transformation, which is known to linearize these equations.

We also apply this method to the Korteweg and de Vries, nonlinear (cubic) Schrödinger, Sine-Gordon, modified KdV and Boussinesq equations. In all these cases the multisoliton solutions are easily obtained and new expressions for some of them follow. More generally we show that the Marcenko integral equations, together with the inverse problem that originates them, follow naturally from our expressions.

Only solutions that are small in some sense (i.e., they tend to zero as the independent variable goes to ∞) are covered by our methods. However, by the study of the effect of writing the initial iterate u_1 = u_(1)(x,t) as a sum u_1 = ^∼/u_1 + ^≈/u_1 when we know the solution which results if u_1 = ^∼/u_1, we are led to expressions that describe the interaction of two arbitrary solutions, only one of which is small. This should not be confused with Backlund transformations and is more in the direction of performing the inverse scattering over an arbitrary “base” solution. Thus we are able to write expressions for the interaction of a cnoidal wave with a multisoliton in the case of the KdV equation; these expressions are somewhat different from the ones obtained by Wahlquist (1976). Similarly, we find multi-dark-pulse solutions and solutions describing the interaction of envelope-solitons with a uniform wave train in the case of the Schrodinger equation.

Other equations tractable by our method are presented. These include the following equations: Self-induced transparency, reduced Maxwell-Bloch, and a two-dimensional nonlinear Schrodinger. Higher order and matrix-valued equations with nonscalar dispersion functions are also presented.

In Part II, the second Painleve transcendent is treated in conjunction with the similarity solutions of the Korteweg-de Vries equat ion and the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation.

Detailed properties of high redshift galaxies

Galaxies evolve throughout the history of the universe from the first star-forming sources, through gas-rich asymmetric structures with rapid star formation rates, to the massive symmetrical stellar systems observed at the present day. Determining the physical processes which drive galaxy formation and evolution is one of the most important questions in observational astrophysics. This thesis presents four projects aimed at improving our understanding of galaxy evolution from detailed measurements of star forming galaxies at high redshift.

We use resolved spectroscopy of gravitationally lensed z ≃ 2 - 3 star forming galaxies to measure their kinematic and star formation properties. The combination of lensing with adaptive optics yields physical resolution of ≃ 100 pc, sufficient to resolve giant Hii regions. We find that ~ 70 % of galaxies in our sample display ordered rotation with high local velocity dispersion indicating turbulent thick disks. The rotating galaxies are gravitationally unstable and are expected to fragment into giant clumps. The size and dynamical mass of giant Hii regions are in agreement with predictions for such clumps indicating that gravitational instability drives the rapid star formation. The remainder of our sample is comprised of ongoing major mergers. Merging galaxies display similar star formation rate, morphology, and local velocity dispersion as isolated sources, but their velocity fields are more chaotic with no coherent rotation.

We measure resolved metallicity in four lensed galaxies at z = 2.0 − 2.4 from optical emission line diagnostics. Three rotating galaxies display radial gradients with higher metallicity at smaller radii, while the fourth is undergoing a merger and has an inverted gradient with lower metallicity at the center. Strong gradients in the rotating galaxies indicate that they are growing inside-out with star formation fueled by accretion of metal-poor gas at large radii. By comparing measured gradients with an appropriate comparison sample at z = 0, we demonstrate that metallicity gradients in isolated galaxies must flatten at later times. The amount of size growth inferred by the gradients is in rough agreement with direct measurements of massive galaxies. We develop a chemical evolution model to interpret these data and conclude that metallicity gradients are established by a gradient in the outflow mass loading factor, combined with radial inflow of metal-enriched gas.

We present the first rest-frame optical spectroscopic survey of a large sample of low-luminosity galaxies at high redshift (L < L*, 1.5 < z < 3.5). This population dominates the star formation density of the universe at high redshifts, yet such galaxies are normally too faint to be studied spectroscopically. We take advantage of strong gravitational lensing magnification to compile observations for a sample of 29 galaxies using modest integration times with the Keck and Palomar telescopes. Balmer emission lines confirm that the sample has a median SFR ∼ 10 M_sun yr^−1 and extends to lower SFR than has been probed by other surveys at similar redshift. We derive the metallicity, dust extinction, SFR, ionization parameter, and dynamical mass from the spectroscopic data, providing the first accurate characterization of the star-forming environment in low-luminosity galaxies at high redshift. For the first time, we directly test the proposal that the relation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate, and gas phase metallicity does not evolve. We find lower gas phase metallicity in the high redshift galaxies than in local sources with equivalent stellar mass and star formation rate, arguing against a time-invariant relation. While our result is preliminary and may be biased by measurement errors, this represents an important first measurement that will be further constrained by ongoing analysis of the full data set and by future observations.

We present a study of composite rest-frame ultraviolet spectra of Lyman break galaxies at z = 4 and discuss implications for the distribution of neutral outflowing gas in the circumgalactic medium. In general we find similar spectroscopic trends to those found at z = 3 by earlier surveys. In particular, absorption lines which trace neutral gas are weaker in less evolved galaxies with lower stellar masses, smaller radii, lower luminosity, less dust, and stronger Lyα emission. Typical galaxies are thus expected to have stronger Lyα emission and weaker low-ionization absorption at earlier times, and we indeed find somewhat weaker low-ionization absorption at higher redshifts. In conjunction with earlier results, we argue that the reduced low-ionization absorption is likely caused by lower covering fraction and/or velocity range of outflowing neutral gas at earlier epochs. This result has important implications for the hypothesis that early galaxies were responsible for cosmic reionization. We additionally show that fine structure emission lines are sensitive to the spatial extent of neutral gas, and demonstrate that neutral gas is concentrated at smaller galactocentric radii in higher redshift galaxies.

The results of this thesis present a coherent picture of galaxy evolution at high redshifts 2 ≲ z ≲ 4. Roughly 1/3 of massive star forming galaxies at this period are undergoing major mergers, while the rest are growing inside-out with star formation occurring in gravitationally unstable thick disks. Star formation, stellar mass, and metallicity are limited by outflows which create a circumgalactic medium of metal-enriched material. We conclude by describing some remaining open questions and prospects for improving our understanding of galaxy evolution with future observations of gravitationally lensed galaxies.

The South Atlantic Alliance: A southeastern U.S. state Governors initiative to address opportunities and challenges embodied in the region's coastal and ocean domain

The pressures placed on the natural, environmental, economic, and cultural sectors from continued growth, population shifts, weather and climate, and environmental quality are increasing exponentially in the southeastern U.S. region. Our growing understanding of the relationship of humans with the marine environment is leading us to explore new ecosystem-based approaches to coastal management, marine resources planning, and coastal adaptation that engages multiple state jurisdictions. The urgency of the situation calls for coordinated regional actions by the states, in conjunction with supporting partners and leveraging a diversity of resources, to address critical issues in sustaining our coastal and ocean ecosystems and enhancing the quality of life of our citizens. The South Atlantic Alliance (www.southatlanticalliance.org) was formally established on October 19, 2009 to “implement science-based policies and solutions that enhance and protect the value of coastal and ocean resources of the southeastern United States which support the region's culture and economy now and for future generations.” The Alliance, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, will provide a regional mechanism for collaborating, coordinating, and sharing information in support of resource sustainability; improved regional alignment; cooperative planning and leveraging of resources; integrated research, observations, and mapping; increased awareness of the challenges facing the South Atlantic region; and inclusiveness and integration at all levels. Although I am preparing and presenting this overview of the South Atlantic Alliance and its current status, there are a host of representatives from agencies within the four states, universities, NGOs, and ongoing southeastern regional ocean and coastal programs that are contributing significant time, expertise, and energy to the success of the Alliance; information presented herein and to be presented in my oral presentation was generated by the collaborative efforts of these professionals. I also wish to acknowledge the wisdom and foresight of the Governors of the four states in establishing this exciting regional ocean partnership. (PDF contains 4 pages)

San Francisco Bay regional sediment management strategy development

The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC), in continued partnership with the San Francisco Bay Long Term Management Strategies (LTMS) Agencies, is undertaking the development of a Regional Sediment Management Plan for the San Francisco Bay estuary and its watershed (estuary). Regional sediment management (RSM) is the integrated management of littoral, estuarine, and riverine sediments to achieve balanced and sustainable solutions to sediment related needs. Regional sediment management recognizes sediment as a resource. Sediment processes are important components of coastal and riverine systems that are integral to environmental and economic vitality. It relies on the context of the sediment system and forecasting the long-range effects of management actions when making local project decisions. In the San Francisco Bay estuary, the sediment system includes the Sacramento and San Joaquin delta, the bay, its local tributaries and the near shore coastal littoral cell. Sediment flows from the top of the watershed, much like water, to the coast, passing through rivers, marshes, and embayments on its way to the ocean. Like water, sediment is vital to these habitats and their inhabitants, providing nutrients and the building material for the habitat itself. When sediment erodes excessively or is impounded behind structures, the sediment system becomes imbalanced, and rivers become clogged or conversely, shorelines, wetlands and subtidal habitats erode. The sediment system continues to change in response both to natural processes and human activities such as climate change and shoreline development. Human activities that influence the sediment system include flood protection programs, watershed management, navigational dredging, aggregate mining, shoreline development, terrestrial, riverine, wetland, and subtidal habitat restoration, and beach nourishment. As observed by recent scientific analysis, the San Francisco Bay estuary system is changing from one that was sediment rich to one that is erosional. Such changes, in conjunction with increasing sea level rise due to climate change, require that the estuary sediment and sediment transport system be managed as a single unit. To better manage the system, its components, and human uses of the system, additional research and knowledge of the system is needed. Fortunately, new sediment science and modeling tools provide opportunities for a vastly improved understanding of the sediment system, predictive capabilities and analysis of potential individual and cumulative impacts of projects. As science informs management decisions, human activities and management strategies may need to be modified to protect and provide for existing and future infrastructure and ecosystem needs. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Applying Habermas's critical theory to public administration and policy: A case study of Florida Everglades restoration program

The foundation of Habermas's argument, a leading critical theorist, lies in the unequal distribution of wealth across society. He states that in an advanced capitalist society, the possibility of a crisis has shifted from the economic and political spheres to the legitimation system. Legitimation crises increase the more government intervenes into the economy (market) and the "simultaneous political enfranchisement of almost the entire adult population" (Holub, 1991, p. 88). The reason for this increase is because policymakers in advanced capitalist democracies are caught between conflicting imperatives: they are expected to serve the interests of their nation as a whole, but they must prop up an economic system that benefits the wealthy at the expense of most workers and the environment. Habermas argues that the driving force in history is an expectation, built into the nature of language, that norms, laws, and institutions will serve the interests of the entire population and not just those of a special group. In his view, policy makers in capitalist societies are having to fend off this expectation by simultaneously correcting some of the inequities of the market, denying that they have control over people's economic circumstances, and defending the market as an equitable allocator of income. (deHaven-Smith, 1988, p. 14). Critical theory suggests that this contradiction will be reflected in Everglades policy by communicative narratives that suppress and conceal tensions between environmental and economic priorities. Habermas’ Legitimation Crisis states that political actors use various symbols, ideologies, narratives, and language to engage the public and avoid a legitimation crisis. These influences not only manipulate the general population into desiring what has been manufactured for them, but also leave them feeling unfulfilled and alienated. Also known as false reconciliation, the public's view of society as rational, and "conductive to human freedom and happiness" is altered to become deeply irrational and an obstacle to the desired freedom and happiness (Finlayson, 2005, p. 5). These obstacles and irrationalities give rise to potential crises in the society. Government's increasing involvement in Everglades under advanced capitalism leads to Habermas's four crises: economic/environmental, rationality, legitimation, and motivation. These crises are occurring simultaneously, work in conjunction with each other, and arise when a principle of organization is challenged by increased production needs (deHaven-Smith, 1988). Habermas states that governments use narratives in an attempt to rationalize, legitimize, obscure, and conceal its actions under advanced capitalism. Although there have been many narratives told throughout the history of the Everglades (such as the Everglades was a wilderness that was valued as a wasteland in its natural state), the most recent narrative, “Everglades Restoration”, is the focus of this paper.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Application of the Schwinger multichannel method to multichannel studies of electronically inelastic electron-molecule collisions

We have applied the Schwinger Multichannel Method(SMC) to the study of electronically inelastic, low energy electron-molecule collisions. The focus of these studies has been the assessment of the importance of multichannel coupling to the dynamics of these excitation processes. It has transpired that the promising quality of results realized in early SMC work on such inelastic scattering processes has been far more difficult to obtain in these more sophisticated studies.

We have attempted to understand the sources of instability of the SMC method which are evident in these multichannel studies. Particular instances of such instability have been considered in detail, which indicate that linear dependence, failure of the separable potential approximation, and difficulties in converging matrix elements involving recorrelation or Q-space terms all conspire to complicate application of the SMC method to these studies. A method involving singular value decomposition(SVD) has been developed to, if not resolve these problems, at least mitigate their deleterious effects on the computation of electronically inelastic cross sections.

In conjunction with this SVD procedure, the SMC method has been applied to the study of the H_2 , H_2O, and N_2 molecules. Rydberg excitations of the first two molecules were found to be most sensitive to multichannel coupling near threshold. The (3σ_g → 1π_g ) and (1π_u → 1π_g) valence excitations of the N_2 molecule were found to be strongly influenced by the choice of channel coupling scheme at all collision energies considered in these studies.

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Design, specification, and synthesis of aircraft electric power systems control logic

Cyber-physical systems integrate computation, networking, and physical processes. Substantial research challenges exist in the design and verification of such large-scale, distributed sensing, ac- tuation, and control systems. Rapidly improving technology and recent advances in control theory, networked systems, and computer science give us the opportunity to drastically improve our approach to integrated flow of information and cooperative behavior. Current systems rely on text-based spec- ifications and manual design. Using new technology advances, we can create easier, more efficient, and cheaper ways of developing these control systems. This thesis will focus on design considera- tions for system topologies, ways to formally and automatically specify requirements, and methods to synthesize reactive control protocols, all within the context of an aircraft electric power system as a representative application area.

This thesis consists of three complementary parts: synthesis, specification, and design. The first section focuses on the synthesis of central and distributed reactive controllers for an aircraft elec- tric power system. This approach incorporates methodologies from computer science and control. The resulting controllers are correct by construction with respect to system requirements, which are formulated using the specification language of linear temporal logic (LTL). The second section addresses how to formally specify requirements and introduces a domain-specific language for electric power systems. A software tool automatically converts high-level requirements into LTL and synthesizes a controller.

The final sections focus on design space exploration. A design methodology is proposed that uses mixed-integer linear programming to obtain candidate topologies, which are then used to synthesize controllers. The discrete-time control logic is then verified in real-time by two methods: hardware and simulation. Finally, the problem of partial observability and dynamic state estimation is ex- plored. Given a set placement of sensors on an electric power system, measurements from these sensors can be used in conjunction with control logic to infer the state of the system.

Developing and characterizing bulk metallic glasses for extreme applications

Metallic glasses have typically been treated as a “one size fits all” type of material. Every alloy is considered to have high strength, high hardness, large elastic limits, corrosion resistance, etc. However, similar to traditional crystalline materials, properties are strongly dependent upon the constituent elements, how it was processed, and the conditions under which it will be used. An important distinction which can be made is between metallic glasses and their composites. Charpy impact toughness measurements are performed to determine the effect processing and microstructure have on bulk metallic glass matrix composites (BMGMCs). Samples are suction cast, machined from commercial plates, and semi-solidly forged (SSF). The SSF specimens have been found to have the highest impact toughness due to the coarsening of the dendrites, which occurs during the semi-solid processing stages. Ductile to brittle transition (DTBT) temperatures are measured for a BMGMC. While at room temperature the BMGMC is highly toughened compared to a fully glassy alloy, it undergoes a DTBT by 250 K. At this point, its impact toughness mirrors that of the constituent glassy matrix. In the following chapter, BMGMCs are shown to have the capability of being capacitively welded to form single, monolithic structures. Shear measurements are performed across welded samples, and, at sufficient weld energies, are found to retain the strength of the parent alloy. Cross-sections are inspected via SEM and no visible crystallization of the matrix occurs.

Next, metallic glasses and BMGMCs are formed into sheets and eggbox structures are tested in hypervelocity impacts. Metallic glasses are ideal candidates for protection against micrometeorite orbital debris due to their high hardness and relatively low density. A flat single layer, flat BMG is compared to a BMGMC eggbox and the latter creates a more diffuse projectile cloud after penetration. A three tiered eggbox structure is also tested by firing a 3.17 mm aluminum sphere at 2.7 km/s at it. The projectile penetrates the first two layers, but is successfully contained by the third.

A large series of metallic glass alloys are created and their wear loss is measured in a pin on disk test. Wear is found to vary dramatically among different metallic glasses, with some considerably outperforming the current state-of-the-art crystalline material (most notably Cu₄₃Zr₄₃Al₇Be₇). Others, on the other hand, suffered extensive wear loss. Commercially available Vitreloy 1 lost nearly three times as much mass in wear as alloy prepared in a laboratory setting. No conclusive correlations can be found between any set of mechanical properties (hardness, density, elastic, bulk, or shear modulus, Poisson’s ratio, frictional force, and run in time) and wear loss. Heat treatments are performed on Vitreloy 1 and Cu₄₃Zr₄₃Al₇Be₇. Anneals near the glass transition temperature are found to increase hardness slightly, but decrease wear loss significantly. Crystallization of both alloys leads to dramatic increases in wear resistance. Finally, wear tests under vacuum are performed on the two alloys above. Vitreloy 1 experiences a dramatic decrease in wear loss, while Cu₄₃Zr₄₃Al₇Be₇ has a moderate increase. Meanwhile, gears are fabricated through three techniques: electrical discharge machining of 1 cm by 3 mm cylinders, semisolid forging, and copper mold suction casting. Initial testing finds the pin on disk test to be an accurate predictor of wear performance in gears.

The final chapter explores an exciting technique in the field of additive manufacturing. Laser engineered net shaping (LENS) is a method whereby small amounts of metallic powders are melted by a laser such that shapes and designs can be built layer by layer into a final part. The technique is extended to mixing different powders during melting, so that compositional gradients can be created across a manufactured part. Two compositional gradients are fabricated and characterized. Ti 6Al¬ 4V to pure vanadium was chosen for its combination of high strength and light weight on one end, and high melting point on the other. It was inspected by cross-sectional x-ray diffraction, and only the anticipated phases were present. 304L stainless steel to Invar 36 was created in both pillar and as a radial gradient. It combines strength and weldability along with a zero coefficient of thermal expansion material. Only the austenite phase is found to be present via x-ray diffraction. Coefficient of thermal expansion is measured for four compositions, and it is found to be tunable depending on composition.