Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.

ESCMID* guideline for the diagnosis and management of Candida diseases 2012: prevention and management of invasive infections in neonates and children caused by Candida spp.

Invasive candidiasis (IC) is a relatively common syndrome in neonates and children and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. These guidelines provide recommendations for the prevention and treatment of IC in neonates and children. Appropriate agents for the prevention of IC in neonates at high risk include fluconazole (A-I), nystatin (B-II) or lactoferrin ± Lactobacillus (B-II). The treatment of IC in neonates is complicated by the high likelihood of disseminated disease, including the possibility of infection within the central nervous system. Amphotericin B deoxycholate (B-II), liposomal amphotericin B (B-II), amphotericin B lipid complex (ABLC) (C-II), fluconazole (B-II), micafungin (B-II) and caspofungin (C-II) can all be potentially used. Recommendations for the prevention of IC in children are largely extrapolated from studies performed in adults with concomitant pharmacokinetic data and models in children. For allogeneic HSCT recipients, fluconazole (A-I), voriconazole (A-I), micafungin (A-I), itraconazole (B-II) and posaconazole (B-II) can all be used. Similar recommendations are made for the prevention of IC in children in other risk groups. With several exceptions, recommendations for the treatment of IC in children are extrapolated from adult studies, with concomitant pharmacokinetic studies. Amphotericin B deoxycholate (C-I), liposomal amphotericin B (A-I), ABLC (B-II), micafungin (A-I), caspofungin (A-I), anidulafungin (B-II), fluconazole (B-I) and voriconazole (B-I) can all be used.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Transmission immunity in malaria: reflections on the underlying immune mechanisms during natural infections and following artificial immunization

Malaria transmission-blocking immunity has been studied in natural malaria infections in man, during infections in animals and following artificial immunization of animals with sexual stage malaria parasites. Effective immunity, which prevents infectivity of a malarial infection to mosquitoes, has been observed under all of these circumstances. Two general types of effector mechanism have been identified. One is an antibody mediated mechanism which acts against the extracellular sexual stages of the parasite within the midgut of a blood feeding mosquito. The other is a cytokine mediated mechanism which inactivates the gametocytes of the parasites while in the circulation of the vertebrate host. Both effects have been observed during natural infections and following artificial immunization. The basis of induction of transmission-blocking immunity, including the nature of the memory for such immunity, however, may be very different in different host/parasite systems and during natural infection of following artificial immunization. Following artificial immunization a strong immune memory for transmission blocking immunity has been observed in animal systems. By contrast, following natural infections in man immune memory for transmission blocking immunity has been found to be weak and short lived if it occurs at all. It is suggested that the immunogens which induce natural transmission blocking immunity may be CD4+ independent.

V-region-related and -unrelated immunosupression accompanying infections

This paper discusses current evidence for the relationship between polyclonal lymphocyte activation, specific immunossupression with decreased resistance, and autoimmune pathology, that are all often found associated with infections by a variety of virus, bacteria and parasites . The central question of class determination of immune effector activities is considered in the context of the cellular targets for nonspecific mitogenic activities associated with infection. A model is presented to integrate these findings: mitogenens produced by the microorganism or the infected cells are preferentially active on CD5 B cells, the resulting over-production of IL-10 will tend to bias all immune activities in to a Th-2mode of effector functions, with high titers of polyclonal antibodies and litle or no production of gamma IFN and other "inflamatory"lymphokines that often mediate resistance. In turn these conditions allow for parasite persistence and the corresponding long-term disregulation of self-directed immune reactivities, resulting in autoimmunity in the chronic phase. This model would predict that selective immunization with the mitogenic principles involved in desregulation, could stand better chances than strategies of vaccination based on immunopotentiation against othere, functionally neutral antigenic epitopes. It is argued, however, that the complexity of immune responses and their regulation together with our ignorance on the genetic controls of class-determination, offer poor prospects for a scientifically-based, rational development of vaccines in the near future. It is suggested that empirically-based and technologically developed vaccines might suceed, while basic scientific approaches are reinforced and given the time provide a better understanding of those process.

The distribution of intestinal helminth infections in a rural village in Guatemala

Fecal egg count scores were used to investigate the distribution and abundance of intestinal helminths in the population of a rural village. Prevalences of the major helminths were 41% with Ascaris lumbricoides 60% with Trichuris trichiura and 50% with Necator americanus. All three parasites showed a highly aggregated distribution among hosts. Age/prevalence and age/intensity profiles were typical for both A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura with the highest worm burdens in the 50-10 year old children. For hookworm both prevalence and intensity curves were convex in shape with maximum infection levels in the 30-40 year old age class. Infected females had higher burdens of T. trichiura than infected males in all age classes of the population; there were no other effects of host gender. Analysis of associations between parasites within hosts revealed strong correlations between A. lumbricoides and T. lumbricoides and T. trichiura. Individuals with heavy infections of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura showed highly significant aggregation within households. Associations between a variety of household features and heavy infections with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura are described.

A modified assay for measuring thymocyte co-stimulatory activity

The observation that murine thymocytes increase their proliferation to interleukin 1 (IL-1) in the presence of phytohemagglutinin (PHA) when pre-incubated with interleukin 2 (IL-2) allowed the introduction of a modified assay for the measurement of IL-1 or the search of thymocyte-inducing proliferative activities in biological samples. Pre-incubation of thymocytes for 24 hr with 50 u/ml IL-2, followed by washings, elicited their maximal response to IL-1 in the usual lymphocyte activating factor (LAF) assay. This suggests that sequential events lead to thymocyte activation. The responsiveness is three to five fold greater than, and the total time of assay is the same as that of the LAF assay. Interestingly, pre-incubation with IL-2 renders thymocytes more sensitive than responsive to crude monocyte conditioned media. The use of the MTT colorimetric method for the assessment of thymocyte proliferation, and of the lectin jacalin as a co-mitogen are suggested as alternatives to be used in co-stimulatory assays.

Infections pulmonaires : que doit savoir le radiologue?

Objectifs pédagogiques: Rappeler les indications de la TDM au cours des infections pulmonaires .Après un rappel histopathologique, connaître les différentes présentations possibles des infections pulmonaires .Connaître les différentes expressions en imagerie selon le statuts immunitaires et les germes concernés .Connaître les diagnostics différentiels selon l'aspect réalisé. Messages à retenir: La place du scanner est indiscutable au cours des infections pulmonaires en cas de discordance radio -clinique, en particulier chez les sujets immunodéprimés.Chez les sujets immunodéprimés, la tuberculose, l'aspergillose et la pneumocystose doivent être constamment gardées à l'esprit.Le spectre de présentation de l'aspergillose pulmonaire avec les particularités des formes invasives , de type angio-invasive ou avec atteinte trachéo-bronchique,et des formes chroniques cavitaires ou nécrosantes doit être connu, le diagnostic devant être évoqué selon le type d'immunodépression. Résumé: La place de l'imagerie est essentielle au cours des infections pulmonaires . La TDM doit être effectuée en cas de forte suspicion clinique de pneumonie avecaspect radiographique normal, équivoque ou non spécifique. Ceci concerne particulièrement les sujets immunodéprimés. Elle permet de détecter les anomaliesassociées ou une affection sous-jacente, d'orienter un lavage broncho-alvéolaire ou de guider une biopsie pulmonaire percutanée ou transbronchique. Lesexpressions d'un germe selon le degré d'immunodépression telles que la tuberculose au cours du SIDA seront présentées, ainsi que celles de certainesinfections pouvant engager rapidement le pronostic vital. Le spectre radiologique de l'aspergillose pulmonaire sera développé.