Impacts of climate change and variability on fish value chains in Uganda

This study examines the vulnerability of fish pr oduction in Uganda, particularly as it r elates to the predicted impacts from climate change, using the concept of the value chain. The value chain approach has been recommended as a useful tool to study specific challenges facing a sector resulting from various drivers of change, including climate. Critically, such analyses can reveal context-specific response strategies to enhance a sector (Jacinto and Pomer oy 2010). The specific purpose of the study was to identify curr ent and potential impacts of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies in fish value chains. The study builds upon information fr om earlier value chain analyses on fisheries and aquaculture production in Uganda to provide a more in-depth understanding of issues facing the fish industry, in particular, those to be incorporated in the CGIAR Resear ch Program Livestock and Fish.

The use of role-play games in teaching: The International Climate Negotiation Game

This paper presents a role-play game designed by the authors, which focuses on international climate negotiations. The game has been used at a university with students all drawn from the same course and at summer schools with students from different levels (undergraduate, master’s and doctoral students and post-doctoral researchers) and different knowledge areas (economics, law, engineering, architecture, biology and others). We discuss how the game fits into the process of competence-based learning, and what benefits games, and role-play games in particular, have for teaching. In the game, students take on the role of representatives of national institutions and experience at first hand a detailed process of international negotiation concerned with climate change.

ADAPTECC: A Role-Play Game about Adapting to Climate Change

The ADAPTECC Climate Change Adaptation Game is a role-play game designed to enable players to experience the difficulties that arise at local and regional levels when authorities have to implement adaptation measures. Adaptation means anticipating the advert effects of climate change (CC) and taking measures to prevent and minimise the damage caused by its impacts. Each player takes the role of the mayor or a councillor of a town affected by CC who must decide what adaptation strategies and measures to take, or of a member of the Regional Environment Department which must distribute funding for adaptation among the various towns. At the end of the game, players should have a greater understanding of the challenges posed by adaptation to CC

The climate and eastern ocean systems project

A brief description of the NMFS/ORSTOM/ILCARM climate and Eastern Ocean systems (CEOS) project is given. CEOS will study the four major eastern boundary current regions (Peru/Chile, California, Northwest and Southwest Africa) and attempt to separate local short term changes of their resources and/or dynamics from long-term, climatic global changes. Expected products range from a large, widely accessible oceanographic / atmospheric database to various documents that will present key results as well as improved contacts and stronger analytical capabilities in cooperating national institutions.

Dinâmica de colonização de uma planície hipersalina por espécies de mangue em Guaratiba, RJ

Alterações na frequência e amplitude das inundações pelas marés são fatores reguladores da dinâmica das florestas de mangue. Tais alterações podem estar relacionadas à elevação do nível médio relativo do mar (NMRM), que vem sendo atribuída como fator de impacto decorrente das mudanças climáticas globais atuando sobre os ecossistemas costeiros. Durante a década de 90, o Núcleo de Estudos em Manguezais da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro observou, em Guaratiba (RJ), um processo de colonização de uma planície hipersalina por espécies de mangue, e começou a monitorá-lo. Após seis anos os dados indicaram a consolidação da colonização e juntamente com o desenvolvimento de outros estudos neste sistema, a elevação do NMRM foi atribuída como principal causa deste processo. Os dados gerados por tal monitoramento, de 1998 até o ano de 2011, constituem a base de dados da presente dissertação, que teve como objetivo analisar o desenvolvimento do processo de colonização e verificar suas relações com fatores meteorológicos locais. No ano de 1998 foram demarcadas seis parcelas justapostas, no sentido floresta-planície hipersalina, até onde era percebida a presença das plantas de mangue. Todos os indivíduos foram identificados com etiquetas numeradas e tiveram suas alturas medidas ao longo de todo monitoramento, da mesma forma que novos indivíduos (recrutas). Quando recrutas eram encontrados em áreas mais distantes da floresta, novas parcelas eram incluídas no monitoramento. No ano de 2011, a colonização já havia avançado 75 m de distância da floresta e as treze parcelas monitoradas indicaram diferentes estágios sucessionais: mais próximas à floresta apresentam consolidação do processo de colonização, com redução de densidade e maior desenvolvimento estrutural; intermediárias, com altas densidades, encontra-se em fase menos avançada da colonização; mais externas caracterizam o início da colonização da área por poucos indivíduos. Notou-se, ainda, que o processo de colonização se dá por meio do estabelecimento de coortes, que demonstram variabilidade nos padrões de desenvolvimento estrutural ao longo dos anos (densidade, distribuição e taxa de crescimento), relacionada às condições ambientais distintas (padrões climatológicos). Quanto à disponibilidade hídrica (entre 1985 e 2011), Guaratiba apresentou predomínio de déficit hídrico, com tendência de amenização ao final do período. Períodos de maior disponibilidade de água no sistema coincidiram com marcação de novas parcelas, bem como com picos de recrutamento e elevadas taxas de crescimento das coortes. Assim, foi possível observar que o desenvolvimento das coortes esteve relacionado às condições de disponibilidade de espaço e luz, além de responderem aos processos meteorológicos, relacionados à disponibilidade de água na região.

Size-composition of Annual Landings in the White Shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, Fishery of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1960–2006: Its Trend and Relationships with Other Fishery-dependent Variable

The potential for growth overfishing in the white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, fishery of the northern Gulf of Mexico appears to have been of limited concern to Federal or state shrimp management entities, following the cataclysmic drop in white shrimp abundance in the 1940’s. As expected from surplus production theory, a decrease in size of shrimp in the annual landings accompanies increasing fishing effort, and can eventually reduce the value of the landings. Growth overfishing can exacerbate such decline in value of the annual landings. We characterize trends in size-composition of annual landings and other annual fishery-dependent variables in this fishery to determine relationships between selected pairs of these variables and to determine whether growth overfishing occurred during 1960–2006. Signs of growth overfishing were equivocal. For example, as nominal fishing effort increased, the initially upward, decelerating trend in annual yield approached a local maximum in the 1980’s. However, an accelerating upward trend in yield followed as effort continued to increase. Yield then reached its highest point in the time series in 2006, as nominal fishing effort declined due to exogenous factors outside the control of shrimp fishery managers. The quadratic relationship between annual yield and nominal fishing effort exhibited a local maximum of 5.24(107) pounds (≈ MSY) at a nominal fishing effort level of 1.38(105) days fished. However, annual yield showed a continuous increase with decrease in size of shrimp in the landings. Annual inflation-adjusted ex-vessel value of the landings peaked in 1989, preceded by a peak in annual inflation-adjusted ex-vessel value per pound (i.e. price) in 1983. Changes in size composition of shrimp landings and their economic effects should be included among guidelines for future management of this white shrimp

Cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelagem dinâmica na Bacia do Alto Taquari.

A região Centro-Oeste do Brasil tornou-se nos últimos 40 anos grande produtora de grãos e carne bovina. As condições edafoclimáticas, o sistema de manejo do solo e o descumprimento de leis ambientais trouxeram conseqüências drásticas à região como o agravamento do processo hídrico erosivo, principalmente na Bacia do Alto Taquari (BAT). Cerca de 90% da BAT localiza-se na porção norte do estado de Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), porém os efeitos do transporte de sedimentos e volume de água são refletidos a jusante dos rios, na Bacia do Pantanal. Utilizando-se pressupostos do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) foram estabelecidos cenários de mudanças climáticas na Bacia do Alto Taquari, visando identificar áreas com maior vulnerabilidade ao processo erosivo em função de pressões de uso da terra. Usando a modelagem dinâmica no TerraME (Environment Modeling) foram gerados cenários topopluviais até 2100, considerando-se para a temperatura do ar média anual um aumento de 1C, em cenário otimista e, em pessimista, elevações térmicas de 3C. Para a precipitação pluvial média anual um cenário foi com aumento de 15% e outro com reduções de 15%. Os dados foram espacializados no ArcGis 9.2 e exportados para o TerraView 3.2, criando-se espaços celulares e integrando-se com as informações do modelo digital do terreno do Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) para geração dos mapas topoclimáticos e simulações de cenários no TerraMe. Os resultados apontam que 85% da área da BAT nas condições atuais as temperaturas médias variam entre 23,6 a 25,7C. As simulações térmicas no cenário otimista indicam que em 40 anos as temperaturas tendem a superar o maior limite térmico médio nas áreas ao longo do rio Taquari, no sentido Oeste-Leste. Esses valores evidenciam elevações nas taxas evapotranspiratórias de matas ciliares, indicando reduções na vazão do Taquari. Em cenário pessimista essas temperaturas antecipam sua ocorrência, em um prazo de 20 anos. Os cenários com acréscimo de 15% na precipitação pluvial mostram aumentos no volume de água precipitada na parte norte da Bacia, região mais vulnerável aos problemas de erosão hídrica. Cenários do regime térmico-hídrico apontam áreas mais sensíveis às mudanças climáticas na parte oeste da BAT e impactos ambientais também na Bacia do Pantanal. Conclui-se que o TerraME é indicado para gerar cenários de mudanças climáticas em bacias hidrográficas.

Autonomous adaptation to climate change by shrimp and catfish farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong River delta

The Mekong River delta of Vietnam supports a thriving aquaculture industry but is exposed to the impacts of climate change. In particular, sea level rise and attendant increased flooding (both coastal and riverine) and coastal salinity intrusion threaten the long-term viability of this important industry. This working paper summarizes an analysis of the economics of aquaculture adaptation in the delta, focusing on the grow-out of two exported aquaculture species—the freshwater striped catfish and the brackish-water tiger shrimp. The analysis was conducted for four pond-based production systems: catfish in the inland and coastal provinces and improved extensive and semi-intensive/intensive shrimp culture.

Participatory action research on climate risk management, Bangladesh

The rural populations of southern Bangladesh are some of the most vulnerable communities in the world to the future impacts of climate change. They are particularly at risk from floods, waterlogged soils, and increasing salinity of both land and water. The objective of this project was to analyze the vulnerability of people in four villages that are experiencing different levels of soil salinity. The study evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of current coping strategies and assessed the potential of an index-based insurance scheme, designed diversification and better information products to improve adaptive capacity.

Climate change and fisheries: perspectives from small-scale fishing communities in India on measures to protect life and livelihood

Through consultations with key fisheries-based stakeholders in four States of India, this study attempts to assess perceptions of fishing communities about the impact of climate change on their lives and livelihoods. It also evaluates the traditional knowledge, institutions and practices of fishing communities that are relevant to climate-change preparedness. The study identifies adaptation and mitigation measures that may need to be adopted by fishing communities and the State in relation to climate change. Based on this overall analysis, the study proposes measures to protect the lives and livelihoods of small-scale fishing communities in the context of climate-change policies and programmes at different levels. This study will be useful for researchers, policymakers, students and anyone interested in climate change and its potential effects on the lives and livelihoods of small-scale fishing communities.

Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands: PASAP country activity for Solomon Islands: Brief review: climate change trends and projections for Solomon Islands

As part of the Australian Government’s International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI), the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) aims to enhance the capacity of partner countries to assess key vulnerabilities and risks, formulate adaptation strategies and plans, mainstream adaptation into decision-making, and inform robust longterm national planning and decision-making in partner countries. The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency contracted University of Queensland (UQ) and University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) to lead the project: “Building social and ecological resilience to climate change in Roviana, Solomon Islands” (2010-2012). Under this project The WorldFish Center was subcontracted to undertake outputs 5 and 6 of Objective three: (5) Review of climate change evidence and projections for the study area and (6) Vulnerability and adaptation assessment for the study area. This report addresses the first of these and comprises a desktop review of climate change evidence and projections for the study area.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

This report is an account of a cross-country study that covered Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Covering four sites (one each in Indonesia and Vietnam) and two sites in the Philippines, the study documented the impacts of three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, as well as autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques, ranging from participatory based approaches such as community hazard mapping and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques, to analyze the impact of climate change and the behavior of affected communities and households.