Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Transaction Costs and Institutions: Investments in Exchange

This paper proposes a simple model for understanding transaction costs for their composition, size and policy implications. We distinguish between investments in institutions that facilitate exchange and the cost of conducting exchange itself. Institutional quality and market size are determined by the decisions of risk averse agents and conditions are discussed under which the efficient allocation may be decentralized. We highlight a number of differences with models where transaction costs are exogenous, including the implications for taxation and measurement issues.

PGE2-Induced IDO1 Inhibits the Capacity of Fully Mature DCs to Elicit an In Vitro Antileukemic Immune Response.

In the last years, dendritic cells (DC) have been evaluated for antitumor vaccination. Although DC-based vaccines have raised great expectations, their clinical translation has been largely disappointing. For these results, several explanations have been proposed. In particular, the concomitant expression by DCs of tolerogenic pathways, such as the immunosuppressive agent indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase-1 (IDO1), has been demonstrated. The aim of this study is to evaluate both the stimulatory and the tolerogenic feature of monocyte-derived DCs (Mo-DCs) after maturation with PGE2. In particular, the role of IDO1 expression in PGE2-matured Mo-DCs has been addressed. Here we show that PGE2, which is required for full maturation of DCs, is one mediator of DC tolerance by enhancing IDO1. PGE2-mediated expression of IDO1 results in the production of kynurenine, in the generation of Tregs, and in the inhibition of either the allogeneic or the autologous antigen-specific stimulatory capacity of DCs. When pulsed with leukemic lysates and matured with PGE2, DCs are impaired in the induction of IFN-γ secreting CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells due to IDO1 upregulation. Moreover, the inhibition of IDO1 enhances the antileukemic response. Overall, these results point toward the use of IDO1 inhibitors to enhance the vaccination capacity of DCs, matured with PGE2.

Quasiconformal maps, analytic capacity, and non linear potentials

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Carbohydrate metabolism and de novo lipogenesis in human obesity.

Respiratory exchange was measured during 14 consecutive hours in six lean and six obese individuals after ingestion of 500 g of dextrin maltose to investigate and compare their capacity for net de novo lipogenesis. After ingestion of the carbohydrate load, metabolic rates rose similarly in both groups but fell earlier and more rapidly in the obese. RQs also rose rapidly and remained in the range of 0.95 to 1.00 for approximately 8 h in both groups. During this time, RQ exceeded 1.00 for only short periods of time with the result that 4 +/- 1 g and 5 +/- 3 g (NS) of fat were synthesized via de novo lipogenesis in excess of concomitant fat oxidation in the lean and obese subjects, respectively. Results demonstrate that net de novo lipid synthesis from an unusually large carbohydrate load is not greater in obese than in lean individuals.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Decentralization and the Gains from Monitoring

This paper analyzes the delegation of contracting capacity in a moral hazard environment with sequential production in a project which involves a principal and two agents. The agent in charge of the …nal production can obtain soft information about the other agent's effort choice by investing in monitoring. I investigate the circumstances under which it is optimal for the principal to use a centralized organization in which she designs the contracts with both agents or to use a decentralized organization in which she contracts only one agent, and delegates the power to contract the other agent. It is shown that in this setting a decentralized organization can be superior to a centralized organization. This is because the principal is better off under monitoring and the incentives for an agent to invest in monitoring can be higher in a decentralized organization. The circumstances under which this is true are related to the monitoring costs and the importance of each agent for production. The results explain the recent application of the design-build method in public procurement. Journal of Economic Literature Classi…cation Numbers: D23, D82, L14, L22. Keywords: Decentralization of Contracting, Monitoring, Moral Hazard.

The reproductive capacity of Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) males treated with precocenes

Reproductive performance including mating, semen transfer, egg production and hatching rate were investigated in pairs of Panstrongylus megistus in wich the male was treated with either precocene II or ethoxyprecocene II, topically applied shortly after imaginal molt. Eighty percent of the males were not able to mate for a period as long as 40 days after treatment. Those males wich did mate (20%) produced small spermatophores; a few (10%) were unable to transfer spermatozoa to female, while the others (10%) exhibited reproductive performance similar to that of non-treated males. The cumulative effects of the precocene on the different stages of reproduction resulted in a drastic reduction of offspring production. The anti-allatal compound precocene seems to inhibit successful reproduction through a corpus allatum inactivation and subsequent lack of secretory activity of the male accessory glands.

Energetics of RecA-mediated recombination reactions. Without ATP hydrolysis RecA can mediate polar strand exchange but is unable to recycle.

We demonstrate that the step of DNA strand exchange during RecA-mediated recombination reaction can occur equally efficiently in the presence or absence of ATP hydrolysis. The polarity of strand exchange is the same when instead of ATP its non-hydrolyzable analog adenosine-5'-O-(3-thiotriphosphate) is used. We show that the ATP dependence of recombination reaction is limited to the post-exchange stages of the reactions. The low DNA affinity state of RecA protomers, induced after ATP hydrolysis, is necessary for the dissociation of RecA-DNA complexes at the end of the reaction. This dissociation of RecA from DNA is necessary for the release of recombinant DNA molecules from the complexes formed with RecA and for the recycling of RecA protomers for another round of the recombination reaction.

Protein interaction data curation: the International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium.

The International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium is an international collaboration between major public interaction data providers to share literature-curation efforts and make a nonredundant set of protein interactions available in a single search interface on a common website (http://www.imexconsortium.org/). Common curation rules have been developed, and a central registry is used to manage the selection of articles to enter into the dataset. We discuss the advantages of such a service to the user, our quality-control measures and our data-distribution practices.

Evolution of endurance during a multidisciplinary treatment of chronic low back pain and its influence of work capacity

Introduction: Low back pain is a common disorder touching up to 80% of the population, with redundancies of up to 70%. A small proportion would go on to develop chronic low back pain (LBP) with reduced work capacity and they would count for the majority of the costs. Up to day, a multi-disciplinary treatment program is one of the best approaches. In the program one of the mile-stones is restoration of function. The aim of this study was to follow patients, according to the endurance change after the program and its influence on workability during one year after inclusion in a such program. Method: Patients were following a multidisciplinary treatment for 3 weeks including physiotherapy, occupation measures combined with an educational program with behavioural and psychological interventions on an outpatient program. We studied the endurance with the help of the Bruce test, accomplished at the beginning and at the end of the program. On the other hand the patients filled out pain questionnaires and PACT score according their own impression on workability. Results: There were a clear relation between the increase in the cardiovascular endurance and the increased workability. Almost every patient presented an increase in the VO2 max, even though the workability did not follow. This increase were associated with a decrease in pain apprehension. Conclusion: A multidisciplinary treatment program, teaching the patients how to care with their pain and to accept it even if it persist is successful in lowering the global pain. If the program allows the patients to strengthen the endurance, the workability will increase in parallel. In this way the patients were able to reduce the consummation of medicaments and to increase the work capacity.

Fast screening and confirmation of doping agents by UHPLC-QTOF-MS/MS

Introduction: The general strategy to perform anti-doping analysis starts with a screening followed by a confirmatory step when a sample is suspected to be positive. The screening step should be fast, generic and able to highlight any sample that may contain a prohibited substance by avoiding false negative and reducing false positive results. The confirmatory step is a dedicated procedure comprising a selective sample preparation and detection mode. Aim: The purpose of the study is to develop rapid screening and selective confirmatory strategies to detect and identify 103 doping agents in urine. Methods: For the screening, urine samples were simply diluted by a factor 2 with ultra-pure water and directly injected ("dilute and shoot") in the ultrahigh- pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC). The UHPLC separation was performed in two gradients (ESI positive and negative) from 5/95 to 95/5% of MeCN/Water containing 0.1% formic acid. The gradient analysis time is 9 min including 3 min reequilibration. Analytes detection was performed in full scan mode on a quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometer by acquiring the exact mass of the protonated (ESI positive) or deprotonated (ESI negative) molecular ion. For the confirmatory analysis, urine samples were extracted on SPE 96-well plate with mixed-mode cation (MCX) for basic and neutral compounds or anion exchange (MAX) sorbents for acidic molecules. The analytes were eluted in 3 min (including 1.5 min reequilibration) with a S1-25 Ann Toxicol Anal. 2009; 21(S1) Abstracts gradient from 5/95 to 95/5% of MeCN/Water containing 0.1% formic acid. Analytes confirmation was performed in MS and MS/MS mode on a QTOF mass spectrometer. Results: In the screening and confirmatory analysis, basic and neutral analytes were analysed in the positive ESI mode, whereas acidic compounds were analysed in the negative mode. The analyte identification was based on retention time (tR) and exact mass measurement. "Dilute and shoot" was used as a generic sample treatment in the screening procedure, but matrix effect (e.g., ion suppression) cannot be avoided. However, the sensitivity was sufficient for all analytes to reach the minimal required performance limit (MRPL) required by the World Anti Doping Agency (WADA). To avoid time-consuming confirmatory analysis of false positive samples, a pre-confirmatory step was added. It consists of the sample re-injection, the acquisition of MS/MS spectra and the comparison to reference material. For the confirmatory analysis, urine samples were extracted by SPE allowing a pre-concentration of the analyte. A fast chromatographic separation was developed as a single analyte has to be confirmed. A dedicated QTOF-MS and MS/MS acquisition was performed to acquire within the same run a parallel scanning of two functions. Low collision energy was applied in the first channel to obtain the protonated molecular ion (QTOF-MS), while dedicated collision energy was set in the second channel to obtain fragmented ions (QTOF-MS/MS). Enough identification points were obtained to compare the spectra with reference material and negative urine sample. Finally, the entire process was validated and matrix effects quantified. Conclusion: Thanks to the coupling of UHPLC with the QTOF mass spectrometer, high tR repeatability, sensitivity, mass accuracy and mass resolution over a broad mass range were obtained. The method was sensitive, robust and reliable enough to detect and identify doping agents in urine. Keywords: screening, confirmatory analysis, UHPLC, QTOF, doping agents