Bacterial algorithm applied for fuzzy rule extraction

This paper presents a method of using the so-colled "bacterial algorithm" (4,5) for extracting a fuzzy rule base from a training set. The bewly proposed bacterial evolutionary algorithm (BEA) is shown. In our application one bacterium corresponds to a fuzzy rule system.

Electronic Journal of Applied Multivariate Statistics

The ecological sciences have experienced immense growth over the course of this century, and chances are that they will continue to grow well on into the next millennium. There are some good reasons for this – ecology encompasses some of the most pressing concerns facing humanity. With recent advances in data collection technology and ambitious field research, ecologists are increasingly calling upon multivariate statistics to explore and test for patterns in their data. The goal of FISH 560 (Applied Multivariate Statistics for Ecologists) at the University of Washington is to introduce graduate students to the multivariate statistical techniques necessary to carry out sophisticated analyses and to critically evaluate scientific papers using these approaches. It is a practical, hands-on course emphasizing the analysis and interpretation of multivariate analysis, and covers the majority of approaches in common use by ecologists. To celebrate the hard work of past students, I am pleased to announce the creation of the Electronic Journal of Applied Multivariate Statistics (EJAMS). Each year, students in FISH 560 are required to write a final paper consisting of a statistical analysis of their own multivariate data set. These papers are submitted to EJAMS at the end of quarter and are peer reviewed by two other class members. A decision on publication is based on the reviewers’ recommendations and my own reading the paper. In closing, there is a need for the rapid dissemination of ecological research using multivariate statistics at the University of Washington. EJAMS is committed to this challenge.

Introducing Game Development into the Computing Curriculum: a Progressive Methodology

The Computer Game industry is big business, the demand for graduates is high, indeed there is a continuing shortage of skilled employees. As with most professions, the skill set required is both specific and diverse. There are currently over 30 Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the UK offering Computer games related courses. We expect that as the demand from the industry is sustained, more HEIs will respond with the introduction of game-related degrees. This is quite a considerable undertaking involving many issues from integration of new modules or complete courses within the existing curriculum, to staff development. In this paper we share our experiences of introducing elements of game development into our curriculum. This has occurred over the past two years, starting with the inclusion of elements of game development into existing programming modules, followed by the validation of complete modules, and culminating in a complete degree course. Our experience is that our adopting a progressive approach to development, spread over a number of years, was crucial in achieving a successful outcome.

New methodologies for directed functional connectivity applied to brain neuroimaging research

Tese de doutoramento, Engenharia Biomédica e Biofísica, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

For the Good of the Game(?): The Legacy of the Football Trust, the Football Pools & the Dangerous Seduction of Political Promise

During the late twentieth century, the United Kingdom’s football infrastructure and spectatorship underwent transformation as successive stadia disasters heightened political and public scrutiny of the game and prompted industry change. Central to this process was the government’s formation of an independent charitable organization to oversee subsequent policy implementation and grant-aid provision to clubs for safety, crowd, and spectator requirements. This entity, which began in 1975 focusing on ground improvement, developed into the Football Trust. The Trust was funded directly by the football pools companies who ran popular low-stakes football betting enterprises. Working in association with the Pools Promoters Association (PPA), and demonstrating their social responsibility towards the game’s constituents, the pools resourced a wide array of Trust activities. Yet irrespective of government mandate, the PPA and Trust were continually confronted by political and economic obstacles that threatened the effectiveness of their arrangements. In this paper the history of the Football Trust is investigated, along with its partnership with the PPA, and its relationship with the government within the context of broader political shifts, stadia catastrophes, official inquiries, and commercial threats. It is contended that while the Trust/PPA partnership had a respectable legacy, their history afforded little protection against adverse contemporary conditions.

Linking Research and Teaching: an Applied Soft Systems Methodology Case Study

This paper links research and teaching through an applied Soft Systems Methodology case study. The case study focuses on the redevelopment of a Research and Professional Skills module to provide support for international postgraduate students through the use of formative feedback with the aim of increasing academic research skills and confidence. The stages of the Soft Systems Methodology were used as a structure for the redevelopment of module content and assessment. It proved to be a valuable tool for identifying complex issues, a basis for discussion and debate from which an enhanced understanding was gained and a successful solution implemented together with a case study that could be utilised for teaching Soft Systems Methodology concepts. Changes to the module were very successful and resulted in significantly higher grades and a higher pass rate.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Agent-based simulation of electronic marketplaces with decision support

This paper presents a Multi-Agent Market simulator designed for analyzing agent market strategies based on a complete understanding of buyer and seller behaviors, preference models and pricing algorithms, considering user risk preferences and game theory for scenario analysis. The system includes agents that are capable of improving their performance with their own experience, by adapting to the market conditions, and capable of considering other agents reactions.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Genetic algorithm methodology applied to intelligent house control

In recent years the use of several new resources in power systems, such as distributed generation, demand response and more recently electric vehicles, has significantly increased. Power systems aim at lowering operational costs, requiring an adequate energy resources management. In this context, load consumption management plays an important role, being necessary to use optimization strategies to adjust the consumption to the supply profile. These optimization strategies can be integrated in demand response programs. The control of the energy consumption of an intelligent house has the objective of optimizing the load consumption. This paper presents a genetic algorithm approach to manage the consumption of a residential house making use of a SCADA system developed by the authors. Consumption management is done reducing or curtailing loads to keep the power consumption in, or below, a specified energy consumption limit. This limit is determined according to the consumer strategy and taking into account the renewable based micro generation, energy price, supplier solicitations, and consumers’ preferences. The proposed approach is compared with a mixed integer non-linear approach.

Particle swarm optimization applied to integrated demand response resources scheduling

The concept of demand response has a growing importance in the context of the future power systems. Demand response can be seen as a resource like distributed generation, storage, electric vehicles, etc. All these resources require the existence of an infrastructure able to give players the means to operate and use them in an efficient way. This infrastructure implements in practice the smart grid concept, and should accommodate a large number of diverse types of players in the context of a competitive business environment. In this paper, demand response is optimally scheduled jointly with other resources such as distributed generation units and the energy provided by the electricity market, minimizing the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player, who manages these resources and supplies the aggregated consumers. The optimal schedule is obtained using two approaches based on particle swarm optimization (with and without mutation) which are compared with a deterministic approach that is used as a reference methodology. A case study with two scenarios implemented in DemSi, a demand Response simulator developed by the authors, evidences the advantages of the use of the proposed particle swarm approaches.

Transmission cost allocation using cooperative game theory: a comparative study

In this paper is presented a Game Theory based methodology to allocate transmission costs, considering cooperation and competition between producers. As original contribution, it finds the degree of participation on the additional costs according to the demand behavior. A comparative study was carried out between the obtained results using Nucleolus balance and Shapley Value, with other techniques such as Averages Allocation method and the Generalized Generation Distribution Factors method (GGDF). As example, a six nodes network was used for the simulations. The results demonstrate the ability to find adequate solutions on open access environment to the networks.

TimeMesh: an educational historical game

The TIMEMESH game, developed in the scope of the European Project SELEAG, is an educational game for learning history, culture and social relations. It is supported by an extensible, online, multi-language, multi-player, collaborative and social platform for sharing and acquiring knowledge of the history of European regions. The game has been already used, with remarkable success, in different European countries like Portugal, Spain, England, Slovenia, Estonia and Belgium.

Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach.

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.