Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Linking physiological and architectural models of cotton

Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrable impurity spin ladder systems

Two different types of integrable impurities in a spin ladder system are proposed. The impurities are introduced in such a way that the integrability of the models is not violated. The models are solved exactly with the Bethe ansatz equations as well as the energy eigenvalues obtained. We show for both models that a phase transition between gapped and gapless spin excitations occurs at a critical value of the rung coupling J. In addition, the dependence of the impurities on this phase transition is determined explicitly. In one of the models the spin gap decreases by increasing the impurity strength A. Moreover, for a fixed A, a reduction in the spin gap by increasing the impurity concentration is also observed.

Contemporary issues in the government and administration of Latin American megacities

This paper is the first to systematically analyze and compare the structures of city governance and administration for seven major cities in Latin America, four of which are megacities (population of over 10 million), and three others are large national capitals. U.S. and U. K. models of city administration are reviewed as baseline models against which differences in Latin American may be explored. Structures of Government in Latin America show several important features and trends: 1) the lack of metropolitan (cross jurisdictional) authority; 2) the existence of strong mayors and weak councils"; 3) high levels of partisanship; 4) overlapping rather than interlocking bureaucracies; 5) pressures towards the privatization of city services, but continuing tension over the desirability of public versus private control; 6) greater fiscal responsibility and autonomy; and 7), a continuing marginalization of public participation in megacity governance.In spite of these features, many cities throughout the region (regardless of whether they are megacity size or national capitals), are actively intensifying their efforts to develop more effective, accountable and democratic governance structures.

Implications of the LHC two-photon signal for two-Higgs-doublet models

We study the implications for two-Higgs-doublet models of the recent announcement at the LHC giving a tantalizing hint for a Higgs boson of mass 125 GeV decaying into two photons. We require that the experimental result be within a factor of 2 of the theoretical standard model prediction, and analyze the type I and type II models as well as the lepton-specific and flipped models, subject to this requirement. It is assumed that there is no new physics other than two Higgs doublets. In all of the models, we display the allowed region of parameter space taking the recent LHC announcement at face value, and we analyze the W+W-, ZZ, (b) over barb, and tau(+)tau(-) expectations in these allowed regions. Throughout the entire range of parameter space allowed by the gamma gamma constraint, the numbers of events for Higgs decays into WW, ZZ, and b (b) over bar are not changed from the standard model by more than a factor of 2. In contrast, in the lepton-specific model, decays to tau(+)tau(-) are very sensitive across the entire gamma gamma-allowed region.

Subunits of the chaperonin CCT are associated with Tetrahymena microtubule structures and are involved in cilia biogenesis

The cytosolic chaperonin CCT is a heterooligomeric complex of about 900 kDa that mediates the folding of cytoskeletal proteins. We observed by indirect immunofluorescence that the Tetrahymena TpCCTalpha, TpCCTdelta, TpCCTepsilon, and TpCCTeta-subunits colocalize with tubulin in cilia, basal bodies, oral apparatus, and contractile vacuole pores. TpCCT-subunits localization was affected during reciliation. These findings combined with atomic force microscopy measurements in reciliating cells indicate that these proteins play a role during cilia biogenesis related to microtubule nucleation, tubulin transport, and/or axoneme assembly. The TpCCT-subunits were also found to be associated with cortex and cytoplasmic microtubules suggesting that they can act as microtubule-associated proteins. The TpCCTdelta being the only subunit found associated with the macronuclear envelope indicates that it has functions outside of the 900 kDa complex. Tetrahymena cytoplasm contains granular/globular-structures of TpCCT-subunits in close association with microtubule arrays. Studies of reciliation and with cycloheximide suggest that these structures may be sites of translation and folding. Combined biochemical techniques revealed that reciliation affects the oligomeric state of TpCCT-subunits being tubulin preferentially associated with smaller CCT oligomeric species in early stages of reciliation. Collectively, these findings indicate that the oligomeric state of CCT-subunits reflects the translation capacity of the cell and microtubules integrity.

Automatic synthesis of VHDL Hardware Components from IOPT Petri Net models

Conferência: 39th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial-Electronics-Society (IECON), Vienna, Austria, Nov 10-14, 2013

Cognitive models for the concept of angle

Tese de doutoramento em Filosofia

Algebraic structure for the crossing of balanced and stair nested designs

Stair nesting allows us to work with fewer observations than the most usual form of nesting, the balanced nesting. In the case of stair nesting the amount of information for the different factors is more evenly distributed. This new design leads to greater economy, because we can work with fewer observations. In this work we present the algebraic structure of the cross of balanced nested and stair nested designs, using binary operations on commutative Jordan algebras. This new cross requires fewer observations than the usual cross balanced nested designs and it is easy to carry out inference.

Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.

Study of the interactions in a three-way crossed classification model

Crossed classification models are applied in many investigations taking in consideration the existence of interaction between all factors or, in alternative, excluding all interactions, and in this case only the effects and the error term are considered. In this work we use commutative Jordan algebras in the study of the algebraic structure of these designs and we use them to obtain similar designs where only some of the interactions are considered. We finish presenting the expressions of the variance componentes estimators.

Invited review: Models for the optimization of regional wastewater treatment systems

European Journal of Operational Research, nº 73 (1994)

Longitudinal analysis of tumor marker CEA of breast cancer patients from Braga's hospital

Allied to an epidemiological study of population of the Senology Unit of Braga’s Hospital that have been diagnosed with malignant breast cancer, we describe the progression in time of repeated measurements of tumor marker Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Our main purpose is to describe the progression of this tumor marker as a function of possible risk factors and, hence, to understand how these risk factors influences that progression. The response variable, values of CEA, was analyzed making use of longitudinal models, testing for different correlation structures. The same covariates used in a previous survival analysis were considered in the longitudinal model. The reference time used was time from diagnose until death from breast cancer. For diagnostic of the models fitted we have used empirical and theoretical variograms. To evaluate the fixed term of the longitudinal model we have tested for a changing point on the effect of time on the tumor marker progression. A longitudinal model was also fitted only to the subset of patients that died from breast cancer, using the reference time as time from date of death until blood test.

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.