Azerbaijan-a growing problem for the West. OSW Commentary No. 146, 15.09.2014

Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the West, launched two decades ago, has helped it become a relatively strong and ambitious actor on the international stage. It has become a key country in the region from the Western (USA and the EU) and Turkish points of view, as well as an important partner in the energy sector. The strategic EU concept of the Southern Gas Corridor, also supported by the United States, is among the initiatives based on cooperation with Azerbaijan. Surprisingly, however, Azerbaijan’s increased ambition and importance have caused its policy to diverge ever farther from the expectations and plans formulated by the West. The changes in the balance of power in the South Caucasus, occurring in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, have forced Azerbaijan to revise its assessment of its position in the region. The main impetus for Azerbaijan’s actions is fear of Russia, as well as the weakness of the West which has become particularly apparent in the recent stages of the Ukrainian crisis. Azerbaijan’s actions so far have displayed its tendency to deepen its self-isolation in foreign affairs and consolidate its authoritarian system. This comes as a challenge to the West, whose ability to shape its relations with Azerbaijan has weakened considerably. This state of affairs poses the threat that in the current situation, the Southern Gas Corridor concept, which Azerbaijan amended in 2012 in its own favour, might become totally blocked.

An economy with unrealistic indicators: an evaluation of the economic situation in Belarus and a forecast for 2013. OSW Commentary No. 103, 2013-02-20

The macroeconomic results achieved by Belarus in 2012 laid bare the weakness and the inefficiency of its economy. Belarus’s GDP and positive trade balance were growing in the first half of last year. However, this trend was reversed when Russia blocked the scheme of extremely lucrative manipulations in the re-export of Russian petroleum products by Belarus and when the demand for potassium fertilisers fell on the global market. It became clear once again that the outdated Belarusian model of a centrally planned economy is unable to generate sustainable growth, and the Belarusian economy needs thorough structural reforms. Nevertheless, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka consistently continues to block any changes in the system and at the same time expects that the economic indicators this year will reach levels far beyond the possibilities of the Belarusian economy. Therefore, there is a risk that the Belarusian government may employ – as they used to do – instruments aimed at artificially stimulating domestic demand, including money creation. This may upset the relative stability of state finances, which the regime managed to achieve last year. The worst case scenario would see a repeat of what happened in 2011, when a serious financial crisis occurred, forcing Minsk to make concessions (including selling the national network of gas pipelines) to Moscow, its only real source of loans. It thus cannot be ruled out that also this time the only way to recover from the slump will be to receive additional loan support and energy subsidies from Russia at the expense of selling further strategic companies to Russian investors.

The Party of Regions monopolises power in Ukraine. OSW Commentary No. 40, 2010-09-29

Since the Party of Regions took power in Ukraine, the process of strengthening the executive branch of government at the expense of the others, together with the instrumental use of the law, has been progressing steadily. By seeking to restrict criticism of the government, the ruling party is aiming at marginalisation of opposition groups and establishing informal control over the main media (largely by exerting pressure on their owners). The role of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is growing, as it is used increasingly frequently to put pressure on Western-oriented NGOs. The government’s control over the judiciary is expanding. These trends had existed before the Party of Regions’ ascension to power, but they were much weaker, as the previous governments did not enjoy such a strong position or the ability to achieve their ends so efficiently. The Party of Regions is planning to take another step towards total power during the local elections scheduled for October 2010. The party is determined to establish control over the local self-governments; to this end, it has amended the legislation in a way which now undermines local civil initiatives. These changes not only illustrate the interests and political standpoint of the ruling elite; they also result from systemic reasons, and these are deeply rooted in the Soviet past. The present Ukrainian state has evolved through the evolutionary transformation of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. As a result, the main features of the previous system have been sustained, including the weakness of the representative bodies and the instrumental use of the law. Twenty years into its independent development, Ukraine has developed a merely formal democracy, which is distant from EU standards.

Hegemony Without Stability: The fiscal and political vulnerabilities of monetary union. ACES Cases No. 2011.2

The crisis has forced the Euro area to establish an emergency fund that supports member states experiencing a sovereign debt crisis. The difficulties of coming up with such a fund for Greece and other Euro area members stands in marked contrast to the balance of payments support that non-Euro members like Hungary received, swiftly and quietly. In order to solve this puzzle, we first establish the difference between EU interventions and IMF programs and, second, trace the evolution of crisis management with France and Germany in the lead. The lens of hegemonic stability theory suggests that the Franco-German leadership is too weak to provide stability and the extensive use of conditionality is one symptom of this weakness. Providing incentives for cooperation "after hegemony" (Keohane) is the unresolved issues troubling the monetary union. Its dominant powers must acknowledge that markets perceive monetary union to be already politically more integrated than its lack of fiscal integration suggests.

Europäische Integration aus historischer Erfahrung, Ein Zeitzeugengespräch mit Michael Gehler = European integration from a historical experience, A Discussion with Michael Gehler. ZEI Discussion Paper C227, 2015

From 1995 to 1999 Monika Wulf-Mathies served as EU commissioner responsible for regional and cohesion policy. She tells us the story of the EU Commission under President Jacques Santer with regard to the historical development of the preparation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the Union Treaty of Amsterdam (1999) and the EU-Eastern Enlargement. She touches also controversial aspects of the Santer Commission, which led to her collective demission in 1999. According to Wulf-Mathies the increase of EU's democracy deficit is result of an erosion process of the common institutions caused by the nation states which contributed to their weakness. The democratic substance of the union suffers because of the 'summarization' of the EU decision making processes. Monika Wulf-Mathies argues in favor of the community method, which needs revitalization. She proposes European democracy enforcement and transfers of the national budget und economy policies to EU bodies. This eyewitness talk offers an actual EU analysis as well as an assessment of the Santer Commission.

The Central European Predicament. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 9, May 2014

From Introduction. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has experienced a very deep economic and political transformation since the beginning of the nineties. The early years of transition were characterized by big hopes for a quick and successful development. The international community, including the EU and the USA showed interest in the transformation of the region for a number of reasons. From a geopolitical perspective, the transformation was of tremendous importance as it confirmed the end of the cold war and the bipolar global system was replaced first by a unipolar superpower system and later gave way to a multipolar or a new bipolar system. This also signaled the weakness of the Soviet Union (and later Russia), as it was not able to prevent this transformation and was soon mired in a serious and long lasting economic and political crisis that undermined its international position. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union during the nineties Russia remained very weak, both economically and politically. The power vacuum and the transformation in Central Europe made the establishment of a new international economic and security structure possible. The new economic and political pattern that started to develop within the region was based on the liberal market economy model, with the objective of opening up markets and integrating the region into the world economy and the North Atlantic security structure.

Where is the credit crunch in Greece? CEPS Commentary, 6 October 2015

Greek policy-makers like to make the point that their economy cannot recover because of a lack of credit and that this affects exports, in particular. Austerity is an easy explanation for the weakness of domestic demand, argues Daniel Gros in this CEPS Commentary, but it is more difficult to see why Greek exports have stagnated in recent years. The author considers the argument that the Greek economy could not recover via export-led growth because of a credit crunch. The overall availability of credit was higher than GDP, and interest rates remained relatively low. There is some indication of a misallocation of bank credit, but the responsibility for any mistakes in this direction must lie squarely with the government and the Troika, given that the Greek banking system has been under government control since 2012.

The Protocol of Frankfurt: a new treaty for the eurozone. EPC Discussion Paper, 12 January 2016

At a time when the EU finds itself in a perfect storm of crises which it seems unable to overcome, a bold move is needed to reinvigorate the EU’s system of government and stave off the risk of disintegration. In order to address the inherent weakness of the EU’s monetary and economic governance, this pamphlet proposes a new treaty for the eurozone: the Protocol of Frankfurt. Written by Andrew Duff, former Member of the European Parliament and Visiting Fellow at the EPC, it is the first ever attempt to draft a treaty aimed at setting up a fiscal union. “The Protocol of Frankfurt provides the constitutional framework for a proper economic government and will, hopefully, also serve to accelerate the debate on the Five Presidents’ Report”. Realising that the time is not ripe for a major constitutional overhaul, the pamphlet instead puts forward a shorter treaty revision that concentrates on re-engineering the Maastricht arrangements for the economic and monetary union, taking on the form of a Protocol to be added on to the existing Treaties. Article 48(2) of the Treaty on European Union allows the government of any member state, the European Parliament or the Commission to table amendments to the Treaties. Our hope is that somebody, informed by this draft Protocol, does just that.

Tajikistan: a chronic stagnation. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 200/15.03.2016

Since gaining its independence Tajikistan has faced severe political, economic and social problems. The last several months has seen a clear increase in their intensity. This is in part caused by the deteriorating economic situation in Russia and the significant fall of remittances from the Tajik labour migrants in Russia, as well as by President Emomali Rahmon’s rising authoritarianism. Despite this intensification, qualitatively speaking Tajikistan’s problems have been unchanged for years. Besides the state’s structural weakness, the main cause is the ongoing neo-colonial dependence on Russia, which effectively limits Dushanbe’s room for political manoeuvre and keep Tajikistan in Russia’s sphere of control. This dependence on the one hand protects the country from collapsing, but on the other it precludes the development of the state, resulting in Tajikistan’s enduring stagnation. Similar processes also take place in other countries of post-Soviet Central Asia. However, in the case of Tajikistan the dependence and stagnation it causes are the strongest and their mechanisms most easily observed.

Sandbox experiments on basin inversion: testing the influence of basin orientation and basin fill

Analogue modelling experiments using brittle materials are performed to study the inversion of extensional structures. Asymmetric grabens of two different orientations are first created during a phase of extension and progressively filled. They are subsequently shortened in the same direction. The aim of our experiments is to determine factors affecting the style of deformation during inversion. We specifically investigate variations in thickness and distribution of strong and weak layers constituting the graben fill and in initial basin orientation. The main advantage of our experimental set-up is that we have a complete control on graben location, width, infill and orientation before inversion. The experiments show that shortening results only in limited reactivation of pre-existing normal faults. In general, forward thrusts and backthrusts cut across normal faults into the footwall of the graben. The forward thrusts either propagate parallel to the enveloping surface of faulted blocks or they cut across basin-limiting normal faults at various angles. The graben fill is mechanically extruded by displacement along forward thrusts that accommodate most of the shortening. Both pre-existing faults and weak graben fill act as zones of weakness during inversion and determine the orientation and location of both backthrusts and forward thrusts. The results of our experiments conform well to natural examples of inverted graben structures.

Petrology, geochemistry and K-Ar Age determination of De Gerlache Seamount basalts

The De Gerlache Seamounts are two topographic highs in the Bellingshausen Sea, southeastern Pacific. Petrological and geochemical studies together with K-Ar age determinations were carried out on four dredged basalt samples collected during a RV Polarstern expedition (ANT-XII/4) in 1995. Minor and trace element composition suggest alkaline basalt compositions. Compared to alkaline basalts of adjacent West Antarctica (the Jones Mountains) and of Peter I Island, the samples have lower mg-numbers, lower Ni and Cr contents and lower high field-strength elements (HFSE)/Nb and large-ion lithophile elements (LILE)/HFSE ratios. Three of the four samples have low K, Rb, and Cs concentrations relative to alkaline basalts. The K-depletion and other elemental concentrations may be explained by 1.1% melting of amphibole bearing mantle material. Additionally, low Rb and Ba values suggest low concentrations of these elements in the mantle source. K-Ar age determinations yield Miocene ages (20-23 Ma) that are similar in age to other alkaline basalts of West Antarctica (Thurston Island, the Jones Mountains, Antarctic Peninsula) and the suggested timing of onset of Peter I Island volcanism (~10-20 Ma). The occurrence of the DGS and Peter I Island volcanism along an older but reactivated tectonic lineation suggests that the extrusions exploited a zone of pre-existing lithospheric weakness. The alkaline nature and age of the DGS basalts support the assumption of plume activity in the Bellingshausen Sea.

Stable oxygen isotope ratios of Globigerinoides sacculifer from sediment core RC09-150 from the southeastern Indian Ocean

Oxygen isotopic and microfaunal analyses and shell size variations of Orbulina universa in two Indian Ocean cores indicate that the position of the Subtropical Convergence has fluctuated between a northern limit north of 31°S during glacial stages and its present, maximum southern limit. The northward displacement of the Subtropical Convergence to a position off Durban, South Africa, reflects the general weakness of the Agulhas Current during glacial stages and parts of interglacial stages, representing about 65 percent of the past 540,000 years.

Dysfunction of respiratory muscles in critically ill patients on the intensive care unit.

Muscular weakness and muscle wasting may often be observed in critically ill patients on intensive care units (ICUs) and may present as failure to wean from mechanical ventilation. Importantly, mounting data demonstrate that mechanical ventilation itself may induce progressive dysfunction of the main respiratory muscle, i.e. the diaphragm. The respective condition was termed 'ventilator-induced diaphragmatic dysfunction' (VIDD) and should be distinguished from peripheral muscular weakness as observed in 'ICU-acquired weakness (ICU-AW)'. Interestingly, VIDD and ICU-AW may often be observed in critically ill patients with, e.g. severe sepsis or septic shock, and recent data demonstrate that the pathophysiology of these conditions may overlap. VIDD may mainly be characterized on a histopathological level as disuse muscular atrophy, and data demonstrate increased proteolysis and decreased protein synthesis as important underlying pathomechanisms. However, atrophy alone does not explain the observed loss of muscular force. When, e.g. isolated muscle strips are examined and force is normalized for cross-sectional fibre area, the loss is disproportionally larger than would be expected by atrophy alone. Nevertheless, although the exact molecular pathways for the induction of proteolytic systems remain incompletely understood, data now suggest that VIDD may also be triggered by mechanisms including decreased diaphragmatic blood flow or increased oxidative stress. Here we provide a concise review on the available literature on respiratory muscle weakness and VIDD in the critically ill. Potential underlying pathomechanisms will be discussed before the background of current diagnostic options. Furthermore, we will elucidate and speculate on potential novel future therapeutic avenues.

National independence; or, A common-sense policy,

Employment demands protection.--Why any exclusive policy?--The free trade trap.--Protection enriched us, not free trade.--Free trade poisons patriotism.--Kill industries and commerce dies.--Theories are dangerous guides.--Industrial displacements spell ruin.--Independence the only policy.--The fatal policy of laissez faire.--"Cheap and nasty."--Our unearned increment.--Free trade a spiteful mistress.--The fertility of character.--We cultivate weakness, not strength.--Britons can manage British business.--Second markets.--The country's average wage.--If trusts, then British trusts.--Labour's true interests.--Germany and her navy.--Class-hatred is suicide.--The tax on wheat.--The little-Englander rat.--The seeds of decay.--Education and patriotism.--Intemperate legislators.--National strongholds.--Futile scheming.--The balance of power.--The suffragette among nations.--Naval warfare in the future.--Universal service.--Broken reeds.

Discourses : translated from Nicole's Essays /

With Locke's dedication, partially in facsimile.