The application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality

This thesis presents an investigation into the application of methods of uncertain reasoning to the biological classification of river water quality. Existing biological methods for reporting river water quality are critically evaluated, and the adoption of a discrete biological classification scheme advocated. Reasoning methods for managing uncertainty are explained, in which the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi are cited as primary numerical schemes. Elicitation of qualitative knowledge on benthic invertebrates is described. The specificity of benthic response to changes in water quality leads to the adoption of a sensor model of data interpretation, in which a reference set of taxa provide probabilistic support for the biological classes. The significance of sensor states, including that of absence, is shown. Novel techniques of directly eliciting the required uncertainty measures are presented. Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer calculi were used to combine the evidence provided by the sensors. The performance of these automatic classifiers was compared with the expert's own discrete classification of sampled sites. Variations of sensor data weighting, combination order and belief representation were examined for their effect on classification performance. The behaviour of the calculi under evidential conflict and alternative combination rules was investigated. Small variations in evidential weight and the inclusion of evidence from sensors absent from a sample improved classification performance of Bayesian belief and support for singleton hypotheses. For simple support, inclusion of absent evidence decreased classification rate. The performance of Dempster-Shafer classification using consonant belief functions was comparable to Bayesian and singleton belief. Recommendations are made for further work in biological classification using uncertain reasoning methods, including the combination of multiple-expert opinion, the use of Bayesian networks, and the integration of classification software within a decision support system for water quality assessment.

Assessment of the impact of discharges from surface water sewers on receiving water quality

A broad based approach has been used to assess the impact of discharges to rivers from surface water sewers, with the primary objective of determining whether such discharges have a measurable impact on water quality. Three parameters, each reflecting the effects of intermittent pollution, were included in a field work programme of biological and chemical sampling and analysis which covered 47 sewer outfall sites. These parameters were the numbers and types of benthic macroinvertebrates upstream and downstream of the outfalls, the concentrations of metals in sediments, and the concentrations of metals in algae upstream and downstream of the outfalls. Information on the sewered catchments was collected from Local Authorities and by observation of the time of sampling, and includes catchment areas, land uses, evidence of connection to the foul system, and receiving water quality classification. The methods used for site selection, sampling, laboratory analysis and data analysis are fully described, and the survey results presented. Statistical and graphical analysis of the biological data, with the aid of BMWP scores, showed that there was a small but persistent fall in water quality downstream of the studied outfalls. Further analysis including the catchment information indicated that initial water quality, sewered catchment size, receiving stream size, and catchment land use were important factors in determining the impact. Finally, the survey results were used to produce guidelines for the estimation of surface water sewer discharge impacts from knowledge of the catchment characteristics, so that planning authorities can consider water quality when new drainage systems are designed.

Development of a mathematical and computer model to assess water quality impacts of hazardous compounds from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the Miami River, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict transport and fate of gasoline components of environmental concern in the Miami River by mathematically simulating the movement of dissolved benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX), and methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) occurring from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the river. Computer codes were based on mathematical algorithms that acknowledge the role of advective and dispersive physical phenomena along the river and prevailing phase transformations of BTX and MTBE. Phase transformations included volatilization and settling. ^ The model used a finite-difference scheme of steady-state conditions, with a set of numerical equations that was solved by two numerical methods: Gauss-Seidel and Jacobi iterations. A numerical validation process was conducted by comparing the results from both methods with analytical and numerical reference solutions. Since similar trends were achieved after the numerical validation process, it was concluded that the computer codes algorithmically were correct. The Gauss-Seidel iteration yielded at a faster convergence rate than the Jacobi iteration. Hence, the mathematical code was selected to further develop the computer program and software. The model was then analyzed for its sensitivity. It was found that the model was very sensitive to wind speed but not to sediment settling velocity. ^ A computer software was developed with the model code embedded. The software was provided with two major user-friendly visualized forms, one to interface with the database files and the other to execute and present the graphical and tabulated results. For all predicted concentrations of BTX and MTBE, the maximum concentrations were over an order of magnitude lower than current drinking water standards. It should be pointed out, however, that smaller concentrations than the latter reported standards and values, although not harmful to humans, may be very harmful to organisms of the trophic levels of the Miami River ecosystem and associated waters. This computer model can be used for the rapid assessment and management of the effects of minor gasoline spills on inter-tidal riverine water quality. ^

Phytoplankton bloom status: Chlorophyll a biomass as an indicator of water quality condition in the southern estuaries of Florida, USA

Altered freshwater inflows have affected circulation, salinity, and water quality patterns of Florida Bay, in turn altering the structure and function of this estuary. Changes in water quality and salinity and associated loss of dense turtle grass and other submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Florida Bay have created a condition in the bay where sediments and nutrients have been regularly disturbed, frequently causing large and dense phytoplankton blooms. These algal and cyanobacterial blooms in turn often cause further loss of more recently established SAV, exacerbating the conditions causing the blooms. Chlorophyll a (CHLA) was selected as an indicator of water quality because it is an indicator of phytoplankton biomass, with concentrations reflecting the integrated effect of many of the water quality factors that may be altered by restoration activities. Overall, we assessed the CHLA indicator as being (1) relevant and reflecting the state of the Florida Bay ecosystem, (2) sensitive to ecosystem drivers (stressors, especially nutrient loading), (3) feasible to monitor, and (4) scientifically defensible. Distinct zones within the bay were defined according to statistical and consensual information. Threshold levels of CHLA for each zone were defined using historical data and scientific consensus. A presentation template of condition of the bay using these thresholds is shown as an example of an outreach product.

Spatial and temporal distributions of epiphytic diatoms growing on Thalassia testudinum Banks ex König: relationships to water quality

The spatial and temporal distributions of the epiphytic diatom flora on Thalassia testudinum was described within the Florida Bay estuary and at one Atlantic site east of the Florida Keys over a 1-year period. Species of the genus Mastogloia dominated the epiphytic diatom flora (82 out of 332 total species). Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) and Analysis of Similarity (ANOSIM) revealed four distinct spatial assemblages and two temporal assemblages. Eastern and western Florida Bay assemblages were identified within the estuary. The eastern diatom assemblage was characterized by high relative abundances of Brachysira aponina and Nitzschia liebetruthii, while the western assemblage was characterized by the abundance of Reimerothrix floridensis, particularly during summer. Two diverse and distinct marine assemblages, one located in the Gulf of Mexico along the western edge of Florida Bay and the other behind the Florida reef tract in the Atlantic Ocean, were also identified. Analysis of the spatial distribution of diatoms and water quality characteristics within Florida Bay suggest that these assemblages may be structured by salinity and nutrient availability, particularly P. The Gulf of Mexico and the western Florida Bay assemblages were associated with higher water column salinities and TP concentrations and lower DIN concentrations and TN:TP ratios relative to the eastern Florida Bay assemblage. The temporal variation in diatom assemblages was associated with water temperature, though temporal indicator species were few relative to the number of spatial indicators.

Florida Bay: Water quality status and trends, historic and emerging algal bloom problems

Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary that while historically oligotrophic, has been subjected to both natural and anthropogenic stressors, including hurricanes, coastal eutrophication and other impacts. These stressors have resulted in degradation of water quality in the past several decades, most evidenced by reoccurring blooms of the picocyanobacterium Synechococcus spp. Major nutrient inputs consist of freshwater flows to the eastern region from runoff and regulated canal releases, inputs from the Everglades to the central region via Taylor Slough, exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico, which include intermittent Shark River inputs to the western region, stormwater and wastewater from the Florida Keys, and atmospheric deposition. These nutrient inputs have resulted in a transition from strong phosphorus (P) limitation of phytoplankton in the eastern bay to nitrogen (N) limitation in the western bay. Large blooms of Synechococcus were most pronounced in the central bay region, in the area of transition between P and N limitation, in the mid-1990s. Although non-toxic, these blooms, which have continued intermittently through the early 2000s, resulted in significant sea-grass and benthic organism mortalities. A new suite of stressors in 2005, including the passages of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, additional canal releases, and the initiation of road construction to widen the main roadway leading to the Keys, were correlated with a large Synechococcus bloom in the previously clear, strongly P- limited, northeastern region of the bay. Sustained for 3 years, this bloom was accompanied by a shift from P limitation to N limitation during its course. Nutrient bioassay experiments suggest that this bloom persisted due to the ability of Synechococcus to access organic N and P sources, microbial and geochemical cycling of organic and inorganic nutrients in the water column and between the water column and sediments (both suspended particles and benthos), and decreased grazing by benthic fauna due to their die-off.

Effects of hydrologic and water quality drivers on periphyton dynamics in the southern Everglades

Everglades periphyton mats are tightly-coupled autotrophic (algae and cyanobacteria) and heterotrophic (eubacteria, fungi and microinvertebrates) microbial assemblages. We investigated the effect of water column total phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations, water depth and hydroperiod on periphyton of net production, respiration, nutrient content, and biomass. Our study sites were located along four transects that extended southward with freshwater sheetflow through sawgrass-dominated marsh. The water source for two of the transects were canal-driven and anchored at canal inputs. The two other transects were rain-driven (ombrotrophic) and began in sawgrass-dominated marsh. Periphyton dynamics were examined for upstream and downstream effects within and across the four transects. Although all study sites were characterized as short hydroperiod and phosphorus-limited oligotrophic, they represent gradients of hydrologic regime, water source and water quality of the southern Everglades. Average periphyton net production of 1.08 mg C AFDW−1 h−1 and periphyton whole system respiration of 0.38 mg C AFDW−1 h−1 rates were net autotrophic. Biomass was generally highest at ombrotrophic sites and sites downstream of canal inputs. Mean biomass over all our study sites was high, 1517.30 g AFDW m−2. Periphyton was phosphorus-limited. Average periphyton total phosphorus content was 137.15 μg P g−1 and average periphyton total N:P ratio was 192:1. Periphyton N:P was a sensitive indicator of water source. Even at extremely low mean water total phosphorus concentrations ( ≤ 0.21 μmol l−1), we found canal source effects on periphyton dynamics at sites adjacent to canal inputs, but not downstream of inflows. These canal source effects were most pronounced at the onset of wet season with initial rewetting. Spatial and temporal variability in periphyton dynamics could not solely be ascribed to water quality, but was often associated with both hydrology and water source.

Benthic diatom assemblages as indicators of water quality in the Everglades and three tropical karstic wetlands

Limestone-based (karstic) freshwater wetlands of the Everglades, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica are distinctive in having a high biomass of CaCO3-rich periphyton mats. Diatoms are common components of these mats and show predictable responses to environmental variation, making them good candidates for assessing nutrient enrichment in these naturally ultraoligotrophic wetlands. However, aside from in the Everglades of southern Florida, very little research has been done to document the diatoms and their environmental preferences in karstic Caribbean wetlands, which are increasingly threatened by eutrophication. We identified diatoms in periphyton mats collected during wet and dry periods from the Everglades and similar freshwater karstic wetlands in Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. We compared diatom assemblage composition and diversity among locations and periods, and the effect of the limiting nutrient, P, on species composition among locations. We used periphyton-mat total P (TP) as a metric of availability. A total of 176 diatom species in 45 genera were recorded from the 4 locations. Twenty-three of these species, including 9 that are considered indicative of Everglades diatom flora, were found in all 4 locations. In Everglades and Caribbean sites, we identified assemblages and indicator species associated with low and high periphyton-mat TP and calculated TP optima and tolerances for each indicator species. TP optima and tolerances of indicator species differed between the Everglades and the Caribbean, but weighted averaging models predicted periphyton-mat TP concentrations from diatom assemblages at Everglades (R2  =  0.56) and Caribbean (R2  =  0.85) locations. These results show that diatoms can be effective indicators of water quality in karstic wetlands of the Caribbean, but application of regionally generated transfer functions to distant sites provides less reliable estimates than locally developed functions.

Historic primary producer communities linked to water quality and hydrologic changes in the northern Everglades

The northern Everglades Water Conservation Areas have experienced recent ecological shifts in primary producer community structure involving marl periphyton mats and dense Typha-dominated macrophyte stands. Multiple investigations have identified phosphorus (P) as a driver of primary producer community structure, but effects of water impoundment beginning in the 1950s and changes in water hardness [e.g., (CaCO3)] have also been identified as a concern. In an effort to understand pre-1950, primary producer community structure and identify community shifts since 1950, we measured pigment proxies on three sediment cores collected in Water Conservation Area-2A (WCA-2A) along a phosphorus enrichment gradient. Photosynthetic pigments, sediment total phosphorus content (TP), organic matter, total organic carbon and nitrogen were used to infer historic primary producer communities and changes in water quality and hydrology regulating those communities. Excess 210Pb was used to establish historic dates for the sediment cores. Results indicate the northern area of WCA-2A increased marl deposition and increased algal abundance ca. 1920. This increase in (presumably) calcareous periphyton before intensive agriculture and impoundment suggest canal-derived calcium inputs and to some extent early drainage effects played a role in initiating this community shift. The northern area community then shifted to Typha dominance around 1965. The areas to the south in WCA-2A experienced increased marl deposition and algal abundance around or just prior to 1950s impoundment, the precise timing limited by core age resolution. Continued increases in algal abundance were evident after 1950, coinciding with impoundment and deepening of canals draining into WCA-2A, both likely increasing water mineral and nutrient concentrations. The intermediate site developed a Typha-dominated community ca. 1995 while the southern-most core site WCA-2A has yet to develop Typha dominance. Numerous studies link sediment TP >650 mg P/kg to marsh habitat degradation into Typha-dominance. The northern and intermediate cores where Typha is currently support this previous research by showing a distinct shift in the sediment record to Typha dominance corresponding to sediment TP between 600 and 700 mg P/kg. These temporal and spatial differences are consistent with modern evidence showing water-column gradients in mineral inputs (including Ca, carbonates, and phosphorus) altering primary producer community structure in WCA-2A, but also suggest hydroperiod has an effect on the mechanisms regulating periphyton development and Typha dominance.

Relating Freshwater Flow with Estuarine Water Quality in the Southern Everglades Mangrove Ecotone

Florida Bay is more saline than it was historically, and reduced freshwater flows may lead to more phosphorus inputs to the mangrove ecotone from the marine end-member. This is important given plans to restore freshwater flow into eastern Florida Bay. We investigated the relationships between salinity, nutrients, and hydrologic variables in the mangrove ecotone of Taylor Slough. We expected that total phosphorus (TP) would increase with salinity, reflecting a downstream marine source, while total nitrogen (TN) would increase with flow in the mangrove ecotone. Despite expectations of increased flows improving the ecological health of lower Taylor Slough and Florida Bay, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) dynamics may shift in response to new conditions of flow and salinity as well as organic carbon, N, and P availability. Our results showed that TP concentrations are more discharge-driven while TN is more variable and potentially derived from different sources along the flow path from the freshwater Everglades marshes to Florida Bay. Increased flow of freshwater through Taylor Slough will likely decrease TP concentrations in this historically oligotrophic and P-limited ecosystem. However, more studies along the mangrove ecotone is needed to understand how increased flows will affect nitrogen dynamics relative to phosphorus.

Evaluating the spatial transferability and temporal repeatability of remote-sensing-based lake water quality retrieval algorithms at the European scale: a meta-analysis approach

Many studies have shown the considerable potential for the application of remote-sensing-based methods for deriving estimates of lake water quality. However, the reliable application of these methods across time and space is complicated by the diversity of lake types, sensor configuration, and the multitude of different algorithms proposed. This study tested one operational and 46 empirical algorithms sourced from the peer-reviewed literature that have individually shown potential for estimating lake water quality properties in the form of chlorophyll-a (algal biomass) and Secchi disc depth (SDD) (water transparency) in independent studies. Nearly half (19) of the algorithms were unsuitable for use with the remote-sensing data available for this study. The remaining 28 were assessed using the Terra/Aqua satellite archive to identify the best performing algorithms in terms of accuracy and transferability within the period 2001–2004 in four test lakes, namely Vänern, Vättern, Geneva, and Balaton. These lakes represent the broad continuum of large European lake types, varying in terms of eco-region (latitude/longitude and altitude), morphology, mixing regime, and trophic status. All algorithms were tested for each lake separately and combined to assess the degree of their applicability in ecologically different sites. None of the algorithms assessed in this study exhibited promise when all four lakes were combined into a single data set and most algorithms performed poorly even for specific lake types. A chlorophyll-a retrieval algorithm originally developed for eutrophic lakes showed the most promising results (R2 = 0.59) in oligotrophic lakes. Two SDD retrieval algorithms, one originally developed for turbid lakes and the other for lakes with various characteristics, exhibited promising results in relatively less turbid lakes (R2 = 0.62 and 0.76, respectively). The results presented here highlight the complexity associated with remotely sensed lake water quality estimates and the high degree of uncertainty due to various limitations, including the lake water optical properties and the choice of methods.

Land Use and Water Quality Correlations in Miami-Dade, Florida

South Florida continues to become increasingly developed and urbanized. My exploratory study examines connections between land use and water quality. The main objectives of the project were to develop an understanding of how land use has affected water quality in Miami-Dade canals, and an economic optimization model to estimate the costs of best management practices necessary to improve water quality. Results indicate Miami-Dade County land use and water quality are correlated. Through statistical factor and cluster analysis, it is apparent that agricultural areas are associated with higher concentrations of nitrogen, while urban areas commonly have higher levels of phosphorous than agricultural areas. The economic optimization model shows that urban areas can improve water quality by lowering fertilizer inputs. Agricultural areas can also implement methods to improve water quality although it may be more expensive than urban areas. It is important to keep solutions in mind when looking towards future water quality improvements in South Florida.

(Table T1) Initial water quality conditions for bioassay experiments during Nathaniel B. Palmer cruise NBP09-01 in the Amundsen Sea

Nutrient addition experiments were performed during the austral summer in the Amundsen Sea (Southern Ocean) to investigate the availability of organically bound iron (Fe) to the phytoplankton communities, as well as assess their response to Fe amendment. Changes in autotrophic biomass, pigment concentration, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, and nutrient concentration were recorded in response to the addition of dissolved free Fe (DFe) and Fe bound to different model ligands. Analysis of pigment concentrations indicated that the autotrophic community was dominated by the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis antarctica throughout most of the Amundsen Sea, although diatoms dominated in two experiments conducted in the marginal ice zone. Few significant differences in bulk community biomass (particulate organic carbon, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a) were observed, relative to the controls, in treatments with Fe added alone or bound to the ligand phytic acid. In contrast, when Fe was bound to the ligand desferrioxamine B (DFB), decreases in the bulk biomass indices were observed. The concentration of the diatom accessory pigment fucoxanthin showed little response to Fe additions, while the concentration of the P. antarctica-specific pigment, 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin (19'-hex), decreased when Fe was added alone or bound to the model ligands. Lastly, differences in the nitrate:phosphate (NO3- :PO4**3-) utilization ratio were observed between the Fe-amended treatments, with Fe bound to DFB resulting in the lowest NO3- :PO4**3- uptake ratios (~ 10) and the remaining Fe treatments having higher NO3- :PO4**3- uptake ratios (~ 17). The data are discussed with respect to glacial inputs of Fe in the Amundsen Sea and the bioavailability of Fe. We suggest that the previously observed high NO3- :PO4**3- utilization ratio of P. antarctica is a consequence of its production of dissolved organic matter that acts as ligands and increases the bioavailability of Fe, thereby stimulating the uptake of NO3-.

Troubled Waters Ahead: An Evaluation of Shoreline Land Use Policies for Water Quality Protection in Renfrew County, Ontario

Increases in the rate and extent of lakeshore development along inland lakes in Ontario are adversely impacting water quality. Despite growing awareness, there is a lack of knowledge about the land use policies and tools in place to protect inland lakes in rural Ontario. This research evaluated official plans for water quality protection policies for inland lakes in the County of Renfrew, Ontario to address this gap. The findings suggest that municipalities implicitly link water quality to land use planning policy and fail to incorporate innovative methods to protect water quality.