The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt–equity yield ratio

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

Variation in genes related to hepatic lipid metabolism and changes in waist circumference and body weight.

We analysed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging the genetic variability of six candidate genes (ATF6, FABP1, LPIN2, LPIN3, MLXIPL and MTTP) involved in the regulation of hepatic lipid metabolism, an important regulatory site of energy balance for associations with body mass index (BMI) and changes in weight and waist circumference. We also investigated effect modification by sex and dietary intake. Data of 6,287 individuals participating in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition were included in the analyses. Data on weight and waist circumference were followed up for 6.9 ± 2.5 years. Association of 69 tagSNPs with baseline BMI and annual changes in weight as well as waist circumference were investigated using linear regression analysis. Interactions with sex, GI and intake of carbohydrates, fat as well as saturated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids were examined by including multiplicative SNP-covariate terms into the regression model. Neither baseline BMI nor annual weight or waist circumference changes were significantly associated with variation in the selected genes in the entire study population after correction for multiple testing. One SNP (rs1164) in LPIN2 appeared to be significantly interacting with sex (p = 0.0003) and was associated with greater annual weight gain in men (56.8 ± 23.7 g/year per allele, p = 0.02) than in women (-25.5 ± 19.8 g/year per allele, p = 0.2). With respect to gene-nutrient interaction, we could not detect any significant interactions when accounting for multiple testing. Therefore, out of our six candidate genes, LPIN2 may be considered as a candidate for further studies.

Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference: influence of FTO and TCF7L2 loci

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that adherence to the Mediterranean Diet measured by using the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) is associated with lower obesity risk. The newly proposed Nordic Diet could hold similar beneficial effects. Because of the increasing focus on the interaction between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weight (Δweight), waist circumference (ΔWC), and waist circumference adjusted for body mass index (BMI) (ΔWCBMI). DESIGN: We conducted a case-cohort study with a median follow-up of 6.8 y that included 11,048 participants from 5 European countries; 5552 of these subjects were cases defined as individuals with the greatest degree of unexplained weight gain during follow-up. A randomly selected subcohort included 6548 participants, including 5496 noncases. Cases and noncases were compared in analyses by using logistic regression. Continuous traits (ie, Δweight, ΔWC, and ΔWCBMI) were analyzed by using linear regression models in the random subcohort. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in models. RESULTS: A higher MDS was significantly inversely associated with case status (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00), ΔWC (β = -0.010 cm/y; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.001 cm/y), and ΔWCBMI (β = -0.008; 95% CI:-0.015, -0.001) per 1-point increment but not Δweight (P = 0.53). The NDS was not significantly associated with any outcome. There was a borderline significant interaction between the MDS and TCF7L2 rs7903146 on weight gain (P = 0.05), which suggested a beneficial effect of the MDS only in subjects who carried 1 or 2 risk alleles. FTO did not modify observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: A high MDS is associated with a lower ΔWC and ΔWCBMI, regardless of FTO and TCF7L2 risk alleles. For Δweight, findings were less clear, but the effect may depend on the TCF7L2 rs7903146 variant. The NDS was not associated with anthropometric changes during follow-up.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

Soil phosphorus supply affects nodulation and N:P ratio in 11 perennial legume seedlings

Developing new perennial pasture legumes for low-P soils is a priority for Australian Mediterranean agro-ecosystems, where soil P availability is naturally low. As legumes tend to require higher P inputs than non-legumes, the ability of these plants to fix N2 under varying soil P levels must be determined. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the influence of soil P supply on plant N status and nodule formation in 11 perennial legumes, including some novel pasture species. We investigated the effect of applying soil P, ranging from 0 to 384 μg P/g dry soil, on plant N status and nodulation in a glasshouse. Without exogenous P supply, shoot N concentration and N : P ratio were higher than at 6 μg P/g soil. Shoot N concentration and N : P ratio then changed little with further increase in P supply. There was a close positive correlation between the number of nodules and shoot P concentration in 7 of the 11 species. Total nodule dry weight and the percentage of plant dry weight that consisted of nodules increased when P supply increased from 6 to 48 μg P/g. Without exogenous P addition, N : P ratios partitioned into a two-group distribution, with species having a N : P ratio of either >70 or <50 g/g. We suggest that plants with a high N : P ratio may take up N from the soil constitutively, while those with a low N : P ratio may regulate their N uptake in relation to internal P concentration. The flexibility of the novel pasture legumes in this study to adjust their leaf N concentrations under different levels of soil P supplements other published evidence of good growth and high P uptake and P-use efficiency under low soil P supply and suggests their potential as pasture plants in low-P soils in Australian Mediterranean agro-ecosystems warrants further attention.

Space, authenticity and utopia in the hip-hop teen dance film

The dance film flourished in the 2000s in the form of the hip-hop teen dance film. Such films as Save the Last Dance (Thomas Carter, 2001), Honey (Billy Woodruff, 2002) and Step Up (Anne Fletcher, 2006) drew on hip-hop’s dominance of the mainstream music industry and combined the teen film’s pre-existing social problem and musical narratives. Yet various tension were created by their interweaving of representations of post-industrial city youth with the utopian sensibilities of the classical Hollywood musical. Their narratives celebrated hip-hop performance, and depicted dance’s ability to bridge cultural boundaries and bring together couples and communities. These films used hip-hop to define space and identity yet often constructed divisions within their soundscapes, limiting hip-hop’s expressive potential. This article explores the cycle’s celebration of, yet struggle with, hip-hop through examining select films’ interactions between soundscape, narrative and form. It will engage with these films’ attempts to marry the representational, narrative and aesthetic meanings of hip-hop culture with the form and ideologies of the musical genre, particularly the tensions and continuities that arise from their engagement with the genre’s utopian qualities identified by Richard Dyer (1985). Yet whilst these films illustrate the tensions and challenges of combining hip-hop culture and the musical genre, they also demonstrate an effective integration of hip-hop soundscape and the dancing body in their depiction of dance, highlighting both form’s aesthetics of layering, rupture and flow (Rose, 1994: 22).

Interactions between uncoupling protein 2 gene polymorphisms, obesity and alcohol intake on liver function: a large meta-analysed population-based study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Given the role of uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2) in the accumulation of fat in the hepatocytes and in the enhancement of protective mechanisms in acute ethanol intake, we hypothesised that UCP2 polymorphisms are likely to cause liver disease through their interactions with obesity and alcohol intake. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the interaction between tagging polymorphisms in the UCP2 gene (rs2306819, rs599277 and rs659366), alcohol intake and obesity traits such as BMI and waist circumference (WC) on alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) in a large meta-analysis of data sets from three populations (n=20 242). DESIGN AND METHODS: The study populations included the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (n=4996), Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (n=1883) and LifeLines Cohort Study (n=13 363). Interactions between the polymorphisms and obesity and alcohol intake on dichotomised ALT and GGT levels were assessed using logistic regression and the likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis of the three cohorts, none of the three UCP2 polymorphisms were associated with GGT or ALT levels. There was no evidence for interaction between the polymorphisms and alcohol intake on GGT and ALT levels. In contrast, the association of WC and BMI with GGT levels varied by rs659366 genotype (Pinteraction=0.03 and 0.007, respectively; adjusted for age, gender, high alcohol intake, diabetes, hypertension and serum lipid concentrations). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our findings in 20 242 individuals suggest that UCP2 gene polymorphisms may cause liver dysfunction through the interaction with body fat rather than alcohol intake.

The ratio bias phenomenon: fact or artifact?

The ratio bias—according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers—has recently gained momentum, with researchers especially in health economics emphasizing the policy importance of the phenomenon. Although the bias has been replicated several times, some doubts remain about its economic significance. Our two experiments show that the bias disappears once order effects are excluded, and once salient and dominant incentives are provided. This holds true for both choice and valuation tasks. Also, adding context to the decision problem does not alter this finding. No ratio bias could be found in between-subject tests either, which leads us to the conclusion that the policy relevance of the phenomenon is doubtful at best.

Arnold v. Britton: a ratio and two sets of obiter dicta

Arnold v Britton marks the final stage of the longstanding dispute as to the correct interpretation of a number of 99-year leases of chalets on a leisure park at Oxwich, in the Gower peninsula, near Swansea. The aspect of the case which has attracted most discussion has, understandably, been its main ratio: the proper way to construe a provision of a lease which arguably has an absurd result. This will be considered in this case-note. The judgment of the Supreme Court – particularly the judgment of Lord Neuberger PSC – does, however contain some observations on the possible reform of the law on service charges which are of interest to those engaged in this field. It also contains some obiter comments on ‘letting schemes’ which are – in the view of the present author – highly unorthodox. These three rather disparate issues which are raised by this case will be considered in turn. As they have little in common with each other, they will be considered as separate sections.

Prevalence and risk factors of radiographic vertebral fracture in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly

The prevalence and risk factors of radiographic vertebral fracture were determined among Brazilian community-dwelling elderly. Vertebral fractures were a common condition in this elderly population, and lower hip bone mineral density was a significant risk factor for vertebral fractures in both genders. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence of radiographic vertebral fracture and investigate factors associated with this condition in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly. This cross-sectional study included 943 elderly subjects (561 women and 382 men) living in So Paulo, Brazil. Thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were obtained, and vertebral fractures were evaluated using Genant`s semiquantitative method. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry, and bone biochemical markers were also evaluated. Female and male subjects were analyzed independently, and each gender was divided into two groups based on whether vertebral fractures were present. The prevalence of vertebral fracture was 27.5% (95% CI 23.8-31.1) in women and 31.8% in men (95% CI 27.1-36.5) (P = 0.116). Cox regression analyses using variables that were significant in the univariate analysis showed that age (prevalence ratio = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06; p = 0.019) and total femur BMD (PR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.08-0.98; p = 0.048) were independent factors in predicting vertebral fracture for the female group. In the male group, Cox regression analyses demonstrated that femoral neck BMD (PR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.07-0.98; p = 0.046) was an independent parameter in predicting vertebral fractures. Our results suggest that radiographic vertebral fractures are common in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly and that a low hip BMD was an important risk factor for this condition in both genders. Age was also significantly correlated with the presence of vertebral fractures in women.

Modeling study of the aspect ratio influence on urban canopy energy fluxes with a modified wall-canyon energy budget scheme

The influence of the aspect ratio (building height/street canyon width) and the mean building height of cities on local energy fluxes and temperatures is studied by means of an Urban Canopy Model (UCM) coupled with a one-dimensional second-order turbulence closure model. The UCM presented is similar to the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model in most of its features but differs in a few important aspects. In particular, the street canyon walls are treated separately which leads to a different budget of radiation within the street canyon walls. The UCM has been calibrated using observations of incoming global and diffuse solar radiation, incoming long-wave radiation and air temperature at a site in So Paulo, Brazil. Sensitivity studies with various aspect ratios have been performed to assess their impact on urban temperatures and energy fluxes at the top of the canopy layer. In these simulations, it is assumed that the anthropogenic heat flux and latent heat fluxes are negligible. Results show that the simulated net radiation and sensible heat fluxes at the top of the canopy decrease and the stored heat increases as the aspect ratio increases. The simulated air temperature follows the behavior of the sensible heat flux. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Programs to compute magnetization to density ratio and the magnetization inclination from 3-D gravity and magnetic anomalies

Vector field formulation based on the Poisson theorem allows an automatic determination of rock physical properties (magnetization to density ratio-MDR-and the magnetization inclination-MI) from combined processing of gravity and magnetic geophysical data. The basic assumptions (i.e., Poisson conditions) are: that gravity and magnetic fields share common sources, and that these sources have a uniform magnetization direction and MDR. In addition, the previously existing formulation was restricted to profile data, and assumed sufficiently elongated (2-D) sources. For sources that violate Poisson conditions or have a 3-D geometry, the apparent values of MDR and MI that are generated in this way have an unclear relationship to the actual properties in the subsurface. We present Fortran programs that estimate MDR and MI values for 3-D sources through processing of gridded gravity and magnetic data. Tests with simple geophysical models indicate that magnetization polarity can be successfully recovered by MDR-MI processing, even in cases where juxtaposed bodies cannot be clearly distinguished on the basis of anomaly data. These results may be useful in crustal studies, especially in mapping magnetization polarity from marine-based gravity and magnetic data. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sex ratio and morphological characteristics of Rufous Gnateaters, Conopophaga lineata (Aves, Passeriformes) in Atlantic forest fragments

Unequal sex ratios lead to the loss of genetic variability, decreasing the viability of populations in the long term. Anthropogenic activities often disturb the natural habitats and can cause alterations in sex ratio and morphological characteristics of several species. Forest fragmentation is a major conservation concern, so that understanding its effects in natural populations is essential. In this study, we evaluated the sex ratio and the morphological characteristics of Rufous Gnateaters (Conopophaga lineata (Wied, 1831)) in small and large forest fragments in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Birds (n = 89) were sexed by plumage characteristics and molecular markers. The molecular analysis showed that plumage is not a totally reliable method for sexing Rufous Gnateaters. We observed that sex ratio did not differ between large and small forest fragments, but birds in small fragments had larger wings and tarsus. Wing and tarsus changes may affect the movement ability of individuals within and among forest fragments. In conclusion, Rufous Gnateaters have been able to survive in both small and large Atlantic rain forest fragments without altering their sex ratio, but morphological changes can be prejudicial to their long term survival.

Sexual System, Sex Ratio, and Group Living in the Shrimp Thor amboinensis (De Man): Relevance to Resource-Monopolization and Sex-Allocation Theories

The sexual system of the symbiotic shrimp Thor amboinensis is described, along with observations on sex ratio and host-use pattern of different populations. We used a comprehensive approach to elucidate the previously unknown sexual system of this shrimp. Dissections, scanning electron microscopy, size-frequency distribution analysis, and laboratory observations demonstrated that T amboinensis is a protandric hermaphrodite: shrimp first mature as males and change into females later in life. Thor amboinensis inhabited the large and structurally heterogeneous sea anemone Stichoclactyla helianthus in large groups (up to 11 individuals) more frequently than expected by chance alone. Groups exhibited no particularly complex social structure and showed male-biased sex ratios more frequently than expected by chance alone. The adult sex ratio was male-biased in the four separate populations studied, one of them being thousands of kilometers apart from the others. This study supports predictions central to theories of resource monopolization and sex allocation. Dissections demonstrated that unusually large males were parasitized by an undescribed species of isopod (family Entoniscidae). Infestation rates were similarly low in both sexes (approximate to 11%-12%). The available information suggests that T. amboinensis uses pure search promiscuity as a mating system. This hypothesis needs to be formally tested with mating behavior observations and field measurements on the movement pattern of both sexes of the species. Further detailed studies on the lifestyle and sexual system of all the species within this genus and the development of a molecular phylogeny are necessary to elucidate the evolutionary history of gender expression in the genus Thor.