Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs

We consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions, using Bayesian vintage-based vector autoregressions. The prior incorporates the belief that, after the first few data releases, subsequent ones are likely to consist of revisions that are largely unpredictable. The Bayesian approach allows the joint modelling of the data revisions of more than one variable, while keeping the concomitant increase in parameter estimation uncertainty manageable. Our model provides markedly more accurate forecasts of post-revision values of inflation than do other models in the literature.

Cross-border capital flows into real estate

This study investigates the determinants of cross-border capital flows into direct real estate markets. In particular, it investigates how existing institutional, regulatory and real estate specific barriers affect cross-border real estate inflows and outflows in a sample of 24 developed and emerging countries, and whether investors seek out targets with lower barriers and regulatory arbitrage. We do not find evidence of significant cross-border institutional or regulatory arbitrage in the real estate market. However, real estate market liquidity is found to be the most important driver of cross-border flows. While many of the institutional barriers included in this analysis do not appear to impact the level of real estate inflows significantly, their presence tends to suppress real estate capital outflows to other countries. Overall, easy access to financial markets, a good economic environment and transparent real estate markets may enhance real estate outflows, while returns and the macroeconomy are found to enhance domestic real estate investment.

The impact of career capital on expatriates’ perceived marketability

We examine how the development of three types of career capital (knowing how, knowing whom, and knowing why) during an international assignment affects the perceived marketability of organizational expatriates. Using the perceived marketability perspective and long-term follow-up data, we show that knowing how is seen as the most transferable type of career capital, while the development of other aspects of career capital has little impact on perceived marketability. We also show that career capital development is more recognized in the external market than by current employers. Our findings expand our understanding of long-term career marketability among people who have completed international assignments.

Linguistic capital and the linguistic field for teachers unaccustomed to linguistic difference

Teachers in classrooms throughout England are facing a shifting demographic in their pupil intake. Where once the teaching of children whose first language was not English was considered an inner-city teachers’ role, more recent migration patterns have challenged this preconception (Andrews, 2009). In England in particular, this change sits against an historical backdrop of centralised control of the curriculum for English. This article explores how primary school teachers responded to the arrival of Polish children in county settings following EU accession in 2004. Interviews with a small sample of teachers in schools that had previously been mainly monolingual were coded using Bourdieu’s Logic of Practice. Analysis revealed a complex mix of experienced that appeared to rest on assumed pedagogical norms and professionally assimilated external pressures. Discussion centres on the author’s interpretation of teachers’ ownership of linguistic capital and its relationship to linguistic field.

Business life cycle and capital structure: evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

This paper uses a panel data-fixed effect approach and data collected from Chinese public manufacturing firms between 1999 and 2011 to investigate the impacts of business life cycle stages on capital structure. We find that cash flow patterns capture more information on business life cycle stages than firm age and have a stronger impact on capital structure decision-making. We also find that the adjustment speed of capital structure varies significantly across life cycle stages and that non-sequential transitions over life cycle stages play an important role in the determination of capital structure. Our study indicates that it is important for policy-makers to ensure that products and financial markets are well-balanced.

Turning a Bourdieuian lens on English teaching in primary schools: linguistic field, linguistic habitus and linguistic capital

The research project used to frame discussion in this chapter was a doctoral study of the experiences of English primary school teachers teaching pupils whose home language was not English in their previously monolingual classrooms. They taught in a region in the south of England which experienced a significant rise in the population of non-native English speakers following Eastern European member states’ accession to the EU in 2004 and 2007. The study focussed principally on the teachers’ responses to their newly arrived Polish children because Polish families were arriving in far greater numbers than those from other countries. The research aims focussed on exploring and analysing the pedagogical experiences of teachers managing the acquisition of English language for their Polish children. Critical engagement with their experiences and the ways in which they did or did not adapt their pedagogy for teaching English was channelled through Bourdieuian constructs of linguistic field, capital and habitus. The following sections explore my reasons for adopting Bourdieu’s work as a theoretical lens, the practicalities and challenges of incorporating Bourdieu’s tools for thinking in data analysis, and the subsequent impact on my research activity.

Gender, race, and heterogeneous effects of epidemic malaria on human capital and income

This article investigates the impact of exposure to a serious, unusual, and unforeseen malaria epidemic in northeast Brazil in 1938–40 on subsequent human capital attainment and income. Arguing the event was exogenous, the article exploits cohort and regional heterogeneity in exposure to identify effects. Results are consistent with differential mortality rates according to gender and socioeconomic status, such that heterogeneous selection and scarring effects are observed. Analyzing by gender alone, positive (selection) effects are found for men, and mixed (positive and negative) effects for women. Allowing for heterogeneity by race, selection effects persist for men. In contrast, positive (selection) effects are observed for nonwhite women, and negative (scarring) effects for white women. Results contribute to evidence suggesting that exposure to negative environmental shocks affects human capital attainment, while also suggesting it heterogeneously affects cohort composition.

Sibling influence on the human capital of the left-behind

While a growing literature has analyzed the effects of parental migration on the educational outcomes of children left behind, this study is the first to highlight the importance of sibling interactions in such a context. Using panel data from the RUMiC Survey, we find that sibling influence on school performance is stronger among left- behind children. Hence, parental migration seems to trigger changes in familial roles and sibling effects among children. However, it is primarily older sisters who exhibit a positive influence on their younger siblings. We corroborate our results by performing a series of tests to mitigate endogeneity issues. The results from the analysis suggest that sibling effects in migrant households might be a mechanism shaping children’s outcomes and success and that adjustments within the family left behind have the potential to generate benefits – or reduce hardships – in response to parental migration.

Capital

Group exhibition of posters and film produced by 'Capital Drawing Group' [Andrew Cooper, Enda Deburka, Dean Kenning and John Russell].

Talent on the move: creative human capital migration patterns in UK

The last decade has seen an increasing number of contributions, from both academics and policy makers, focusing on the role of higher education in developing human capital (Charles, 2003; Cramphorn & Woodlhouse, 1999; Preston & Hammond, 2006) and hence contributing to local and regional growth (Faggian & McCann, 2006; Mathur, 1999; Moretti, 2004). Within this broader literature, the role played by more ‘scientific’ types of human capital, such as STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) graduates and science parks (Bozeman, Dietz, & Gaughan, 2001; Linderlöf & Löfsten, 2004; Löfsten & Lindelöf, 2005), has also been explored. Little attention has been paid so far, to the role played by more ‘creative’ types of human capital. This chapter aims at filling this gap, in light of the central role that the term ‘creative’ took in policy and academic discourses in the UK (Comunian & Faggian, 2011; Comunian & Gilmore, 2015; DCMS, 2006; Powell, 2007; Universities UK, 2010).

Railway promotion in Victorian Britain: engineering triumph or waste of capital?

A key issue in UK railway history is whether the railway system was an efficient response to the traffic requirements of the economy. The UK railway system was constructed entirely by private enterprise with minimal state subsidies. This chapter considers whether the railway system was 'over-built' because the government ignored the advice of the Railway Committee of the Board of Trade. The chapter suggests that the system was over-built by about 35 per cent. The causes of this over-building are investigated and are found to be mainly social and political failures arising from distrust between MPs and civil servants and public pressure on local MPs to ensure that their constituencies were well served by railways.

The career competencies of self-initiated and assigned expatriates: assessing the development of career capital over time

Building on a modern careers approach, we assess the effects of working abroad on individuals’ career capital. Given the dearth of longitudinal studies, we return to a sample of economics graduates in Finland eight years later. We measure changes in three dimensions of career capital; ‘knowing how’, ‘knowing whom’, ‘knowing why’ and find that company assigned expatriates learn more than self-initiated expatriates. All three career capital areas benefit from international experience and all are increasingly valued over time. Based on our findings we conclude that a dynamic notion of career capital acquisition and use is needed. Managerial implications include the need for a wider view of talent management for international businesses.