838 resultados para Uncertainty in Wind Energy


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The evolution of the Next Generation Networks, especially the wireless broadband access technologies such as Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), have increased the number of "all-IP" networks across the world. The enhanced capabilities of these access networks has spearheaded the cloud computing paradigm, where the end-users aim at having the services accessible anytime and anywhere. The services availability is also related with the end-user device, where one of the major constraints is the battery lifetime. Therefore, it is necessary to assess and minimize the energy consumed by the end-user devices, given its significance for the user perceived quality of the cloud computing services. In this paper, an empirical methodology to measure network interfaces energy consumption is proposed. By employing this methodology, an experimental evaluation of energy consumption in three different cloud computing access scenarios (including WiMAX) were performed. The empirical results obtained show the impact of accurate network interface states management and application network level design in the energy consumption. Additionally, the achieved outcomes can be used in further software-based models to optimized energy consumption, and increase the Quality of Experience (QoE) perceived by the end-users.

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Fuel Cells are a promising alternative energy technology. One of the biggest problems that exists in fuel cell is that of water management. A better understanding of wettability characteristics in the fuel cells is needed to alleviate the problem of water management. Contact angle data on gas diffusion layers (GDL) of the fuel cells can be used to characterize the wettability of GDL in fuel cells. A contact angle measurement program has been developed to measure the contact angle of sessile drops from drop images. Digitization of drop images induces pixel errors in the contact angle measurement process. The resulting uncertainty in contact angle measurement has been analyzed. An experimental apparatus has been developed for contact angle measurements at different temperature, with the feature to measure advancing and receding contact angles on gas diffusion layers of fuel cells.

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Two of the indicators of the UN Millennium Development Goals ensuring environmental sustainability are energy use and per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The increasing urbanization and increasing world population may require increased energy use in order to transport enough safe drinking water to communities. In addition, the increase in water use would result in increased energy consumption, thereby resulting in increased green-house gas emissions that promote global climate change. The study of multiple Municipal Drinking Water Distribution Systems (MDWDSs) that relates various MDWDS aspects--system components and properties--to energy use is strongly desirable. The understanding of the relationship between system aspects and energy use aids in energy-efficient design. In this study, components of a MDWDS, and/or the characteristics associated with the component are termed as MDWDS aspects (hereafter--system aspects). There are many aspects of MDWDSs that affect the energy usage. Three system aspects (1) system-wide water demand, (2) storage tank parameters, and (3) pumping stations were analyzed in this study. The study involved seven MDWDSs to understand the relationship between the above-mentioned system aspects in relation with energy use. A MDWDSs model, EPANET 2.0, was utilized to analyze the seven systems. Six of the systems were real and one was a hypothetical system. The study presented here is unique in its statistical approach using seven municipal water distribution systems. The first system aspect studied was system-wide water demand. The analysis involved analyzing seven systems for the variation of water demand and its impact on energy use. To quantify the effects of water use reduction on energy use in a municipal water distribution system, the seven systems were modeled and the energy usage quantified for various amounts of water conservation. It was found that the effect of water conservation on energy use was linear for all seven systems and that all the average values of all the systems' energy use plotted on the same line with a high R 2 value. From this relationship, it can be ascertained that a 20% reduction in water demand results in approximately a 13% savings in energy use for all seven systems analyzed. This figure might hold true for many similar systems that are dominated by pumping and not gravity driven. The second system aspect analyzed was storage tank(s) parameters. Various tank parameters: (1) tank maximum water levels, (2) tank elevation, and (3) tank diameter were considered in this part of the study. MDWDSs use a significant amount of electrical energy for the pumping of water from low elevations (usually a source) to higher ones (usually storage tanks). The use of electrical energy has an effect on pollution emissions and, therefore, potential global climate change as well. Various values of these tank parameters were modeled on seven MDWDSs of various sizes using a network solver and the energy usage recorded. It was found that when averaged over all seven analyzed systems (1) the reduction of maximum tank water level by 50% results in a 2% energy reduction, (2) energy use for a change in tank elevation is system specific, and (2) a reduction of tank diameter of 50% results in approximately a 7% energy savings. The third system aspect analyzed in this study was pumping station parameters. A pumping station consists of one or more pumps. The seven systems were analyzed to understand the effect of the variation of pump horsepower and the number of booster stations on energy use. It was found that adding booster stations could save energy depending upon the system characteristics. For systems with flat topography, a single main pumping station was found to use less energy. In systems with a higher-elevation neighborhood, however, one or more booster pumps with a reduced main pumping station capacity used less energy. The energy savings for the seven systems was dependent on the number of boosters and ranged from 5% to 66% for the analyzed five systems with higher elevation neighborhoods (S3, S4, S5, S6, and S7). No energy savings was realized for the remaining two flat topography systems, S1, and S2. The present study analyzed and established the relationship between various system aspects and energy use in seven MDWDSs. This aids in estimating the amount of energy savings in MDWDSs. This energy savings would ultimately help reduce Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions including per capita CO 2 emissions thereby potentially lowering the global climate change effect. This will in turn contribute to meeting the MDG of ensuring environmental sustainability.

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Proton radiation therapy is gaining popularity because of the unique characteristics of its dose distribution, e.g., high dose-gradient at the distal end of the percentage-depth-dose curve (known as the Bragg peak). The high dose-gradient offers the possibility of delivering high dose to the target while still sparing critical organs distal to the target. However, the high dose-gradient is a double-edged sword: a small shift of the highly conformal high-dose area can cause the target to be substantially under-dosed or the critical organs to be substantially over-dosed. Because of that, large margins are required in treatment planning to ensure adequate dose coverage of the target, which prevents us from realizing the full potential of proton beams. Therefore, it is critical to reduce uncertainties in the proton radiation therapy. One major uncertainty in a proton treatment is the range uncertainty related to the estimation of proton stopping power ratio (SPR) distribution inside a patient. The SPR distribution inside a patient is required to account for tissue heterogeneities when calculating dose distribution inside the patient. In current clinical practice, the SPR distribution inside a patient is estimated from the patient’s treatment planning computed tomography (CT) images based on the CT number-to-SPR calibration curve. The SPR derived from a single CT number carries large uncertainties in the presence of human tissue composition variations, which is the major drawback of the current SPR estimation method. We propose to solve this problem by using dual energy CT (DECT) and hypothesize that the range uncertainty can be reduced by a factor of two from currently used value of 3.5%. A MATLAB program was developed to calculate the electron density ratio (EDR) and effective atomic number (EAN) from two CT measurements of the same object. An empirical relationship was discovered between mean excitation energies and EANs existing in human body tissues. With the MATLAB program and the empirical relationship, a DECT-based method was successfully developed to derive SPRs for human body tissues (the DECT method). The DECT method is more robust against the uncertainties in human tissues compositions than the current single-CT-based method, because the DECT method incorporated both density and elemental composition information in the SPR estimation. Furthermore, we studied practical limitations of the DECT method. We found that the accuracy of the DECT method using conventional kV-kV x-ray pair is susceptible to CT number variations, which compromises the theoretical advantage of the DECT method. Our solution to this problem is to use a different x-ray pair for the DECT. The accuracy of the DECT method using different combinations of x-ray energies, i.e., the kV-kV, kV-MV and MV-MV pair, was compared using the measured imaging uncertainties for each case. The kV-MV DECT was found to be the most robust against CT number variations. In addition, we studied how uncertainties propagate through the DECT calculation, and found general principles of selecting x-ray pairs for the DECT method to minimize its sensitivity to CT number variations. The uncertainties in SPRs estimated using the kV-MV DECT were analyzed further and compared to those using the stoichiometric method. The uncertainties in SPR estimation can be divided into five categories according to their origins: the inherent uncertainty, the DECT modeling uncertainty, the CT imaging uncertainty, the uncertainty in the mean excitation energy, and SPR variation with proton energy. Additionally, human body tissues were divided into three tissue groups – low density (lung) tissues, soft tissues and bone tissues. The uncertainties were estimated separately because their uncertainties were different under each condition. An estimate of the composite range uncertainty (2s) was determined for three tumor sites – prostate, lung, and head-and-neck, by combining the uncertainty estimates of all three tissue groups, weighted by their proportions along typical beam path for each treatment site. In conclusion, the DECT method holds theoretical advantages in estimating SPRs for human tissues over the current single-CT-based method. Using existing imaging techniques, the kV-MV DECT approach was capable of reducing the range uncertainty from the currently used value of 3.5% to 1.9%-2.3%, but it is short to reach our original goal of reducing the range uncertainty by a factor of two. The dominant source of uncertainties in the kV-MV DECT was the uncertainties in CT imaging, especially in MV CT imaging. Further reduction in beam hardening effect, the impact of scatter, out-of-field object etc. would reduce the Hounsfeld Unit variations in CT imaging. The kV-MV DECT still has the potential to reduce the range uncertainty further.

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The loss of soluble brain antioxidants and protective effects of radical scavengers implicate reactive oxygen species in cortical neuronal injury caused by bacterial meningitis. However, the lack of significant oxidative damage in cortex [J. Neuropathol. Exp. Neurol. 61 (2002) 605-613] suggests that cortical neuronal injury may not be due to excessive parenchymal oxidant production. To see whether this tissue region exhibits a prooxidant state in bacterial meningitis, we examined the state of the major cortical antioxidant defenses in infant rats infected with Streptococcus pneumoniae. Adenine nucleotides were co-determined to assess possible changes in energy metabolism. Arguing against heightened parenchymal oxidant production, the high NADPH/NADP(+) ratio ( approximately 3:1) and activities of the major antioxidant defense and pentose phosphate pathway enzymes remained unchanged at the time of fulminant meningitis. In contrast, cortical ATP, ADP and total adenine nucleotides were on average decreased by approximately 25%. However, energy depletion did not lead to a significant decrease in adenylate energy charge (AEC). ATP depletion was likely a consequence of metabolic degradation, since it correlated with both the loss of total adenine nucleotides and accumulation of purine degradation products. Furthermore, the loss of ATP and decrease in AEC correlated significantly with the extent of neuronal injury. These results strongly suggest that energy depletion rather than parenchymal oxidative damage is involved in the observed cortical neuronal injury.

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Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

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The integrated elliptic flow of charged particles produced in Pb+Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV has been measured with the ATLAS detector using data collected at the Large Hadron Collider. The anisotropy parameter, v2, was measured in the pseudorapidity range |η| ≤ 2.5 with the event-plane method. In order to include tracks with very low transverse momentum pT, thus reducing the uncertainty in v2 integrated over pT, a 1 μb−1 data sample recorded without a magnetic field in the tracking detectors is used. The centrality dependence of the integrated v2 is compared to other measurements obtained with higher pT thresholds. The integrated elliptic flow is weakly decreasing with |η|. The integrated v2 transformed to the rest frame of one of the colliding nuclei is compared to the lower-energy RHIC data.

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We present field measurements of air-sea gas exchange by the radon deficit method that were carried out during JASIN 1978 (NE Atlantic) and FGGE 1979 (Equatorial Atlantic). Both experiments comprised repeated deficit measurements at fixed position over periods of days or longer, using a previously descibed precise and fast-acquiaition, automatic radon measuring system. The deficit time series exhibit variations that only partly reflect the expected changes in gas transfer. By evaluating averages over each time series we deduce the following gas transfer velocities (average wind velocity and water temperature in parentheses): JASIN phase 1: 1.6 ± 0.8 m/d (at ~6 m/s, 13°C) JASIN phase 2: 4.3 ± 1.2 m/d (at ~8 m/s, 13°C) FGGE: 1.2 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~5 m/s, 28°C) 0.9 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~7 m/s, 28°C) 1.5 ± 0.4 m/d (at ~7 m/s, 28°C) The large difference betwen the JASIN phase 2 and FGGE values despite quite similare average wind velocity becomes even larger when the values are, however, fully compatible with the range of gas transfer velocities observed in laboratory experiments and the conclusion is suggested that their difference is caused by the highly different wind variability in JASIN and FGGE. We conclude that in gas exchange parameterization it is not sufficinent to consider wind velocity only. A comparison of our observations with laboratory results outlines the range of variations of air-sea gas transfer velocities with wind velocity and sea state. We also reformulate the radon deficit method, in the light of our observed deficit variations, to account explicitely for non-stationary and horizontal inhomogeneity in previous radon work introduces considerable uncertainty in deduced gas transfere velocity. We furthermore discuss the observational rewuirements that have to be met for an adequate exploitation of the radon deficit method, of which an observation area of minimum horizontal inhomogeneity and monitoring of the remaining inhomogeneities are thought to be the most stringent ones.

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This chapter aims at contributing to the trade and energy debate by focusing on the specific issue of export restrictions. It starts from the premise that a balanced and efficient regulation of export barriers in the energy sector would contribute to tackle emerging energy concerns such as energy security and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies in light of the challenge of climate change mitigation. It assesses the adequacy of existing WTO rules on export restric­tions and accordingly identifies the main gaps and inconsistencies inherent in the current disciplines from an energy-specific perspective. Finally, it discusses the merits of an energy-specific approach to advance existing disciplines in the most deficient area of export duties based on the systematisation of the Russian ‘model’. Such approach could raise the overall level of commitments in the energy sector while still allowing for the systemic applicability of GATT environmental exceptions in a manner consistent with the principle of sus­tainable development recognised in the Preamble of the WTO Agreement.

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This paper aims to identify the magnitude of energy efficiency improvement, which has been promoted through energy efficiency labeling and the Minimum Energy Performance Standard, and to compare this against the increase in the number of products and the average increase in cooling capacity. Air conditioners (ACs) are one of the major contributors to energy consumption in a household. To assess the magnitude of this factor, we developed a formula to decompose total energy consumption from ACs into the number of ACs, their average cooling capacity, and energy efficiency. In the case of ACs in Thailand, energy efficiency improvement has offset the increase in the average AC cooling capacity. However, energy consumption from ACs increases with the number of ACs.

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Agriculture is a major consumer of energy in many countries of the world. Only a few of these countries are self-sufficient in conventional energy sources, which are also exhaustible. Fortunately, there are other sources of energy, such as wind, which has experienced recent developments in the area of wind power generation. From irrigation projects to power supply in remote farms, wind power generation can play a vital role. A simple methodology for technical evaluation of windmills for irrigation water pumping has been developed in this study to determine the feasibility per unit amount of water supplied and the levels of daily irrigation demand satisfied by windmill irrigation system at various levels of risk (probability of failure). For this purpose, a series of three hourly wind-speed data over a period of 38 years at Ciego de Ávila, Cuba, were analyzed to compute the diurnal wind pump discharge at varying levels of risk. The sizes of reservoirs required to modulate fluctuating discharge and to satisfy the levels of irrigation demand, on function of crop development dates, cultivated area and water elevation height, were computed by cumulative deficit water budgeting. An example is given illustrating the use of the methodology on tomato crop Licopersicon esculentum Mill) under greenhouse.

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Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

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Renewable energy hybrid systems and mini-grids for electrification of rural areas are known to be reliable and more cost efficient than grid extension or only-diesel based systems. However, there is still some uncertainty in some areas, for example, which is the most efficient way of coupling hybrid systems: AC, DC or AC-DC? With the use of Matlab/Simulink a mini-grid that connects a school, a small hospital and an ecotourism hostel has been modelled. This same mini grid has been coupled in the different possible ways and the system’s efficiency has been studied. In addition, while keeping the consumption constant, the generation sources and the consumption profile have been modified and the effect on the efficiency under each configuration has also been analysed. Finally different weather profiles have been introduced and, again, the effect on the efficiency of each system has been observed.

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The presented works aim at proposing a methodology for the simulation of offshore wind conditions using CFD. The main objective is the development of a numerical model for the characterization of atmospheric boundary layers of different stability levels, as the most important issue in offshore wind resource assessment. Based on Monin-Obukhov theory, the steady k-ε Standard turbulence model is modified to take into account thermal stratification in the surface layer. The validity of Monin-Obukhov theory in offshore conditions is discussed with an analysis of a three day episode at FINO-1 platform.