Ecology of Chaetognaths in the Indian EEZ

This thesis entitled ecology of chaetognaths in the indian EEZ.The present study, in general, deals with the distribution pattern of mesozooplankton biomass and abundance with special reference to the detailed ecology of the important carnivorous planktonic group, the chaetognath, in the two major ocean basins of the Indian EEZ, the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Prior to the International Indian Ocean expedition (IIOE, 1960 – 1965), cmprehensive studies on chaetognath in the Indian waters were very limited and was confined mostly to some coastal and oceanic regions. The study revealed a profound influence of different physical process on the abundance of chaetognath community. The significant influence exerted by different physico-chemical factors on the vertical distribution of chaetognath species was also evident. Prior to this study, only very little information was available on the ecology and distribution pattern chaetognaths in both the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal in relation to various mesoscale processes and physicochemical .variables. This study, emphasizing the short term and long term influences of different meso-scale and basin scale physical events on the ecology of this important plankton group provides the baseline data for extensive ecological research on any major mesozooplankton group in this tropical low latitude region.

POST-MONSOON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTION ANOMALIES OVER INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS

We have studied sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (domain 25 °S to 25°N and 40 °E to 160 °W) during the three seasons following the Indian summer monsoon for wet monsoons and also for dry monsoons accompanied or not by El Ni˜no. A dry monsoon is followed by positive SST anomalies in the longitude belt 40 to 120 °E, negative anomalies in 120 to 160 °E and again positive anomalies east of 160 °E. In dry monsoons accompanied by El Ni˜no the anomalies have the same sign, but are much stronger. Wet monsoons have weak anomalies of opposite sign in all three of the longitude belts. Thus El Ni˜no and a dry monsoon have the same types of association with the Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs. In the sector 40 to 120 °E SST anomalies first appear over the western part of the Indian Ocean (June to September) followed by the same sign of anomalies over its eastern part and China Sea (October to March). By March after a dry monsoon or El Ni˜no the Indian Ocean between 10 °N and 10 °S has a spatially large warm SST anomaly. Anomalies in deep convection tend to follow the SST anomalies, with warm SST anomalies producing positive convection anomalies around the seasonal location of the intertropical convergence zone

Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Observations of the inter-ocean exchange around South Africa

There is growing evidence that the interocean exchange south of Africa is an important link in the global overturning circulation of the ocean, the so‐called ocean conveyer belt. At this location, warm and salty Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic and are pulled by currents that eventually reach the North Atlantic, where water cools and sinks. A major contributor to the exchange is the frequent shedding of ring eddies from the termination of the Agulhas Current south of the tip of Africa. This shedding is controlled by developments far upstream in the Indian Ocean, and variations in this ‘Agulhas Leakage’ can lead to changes in the rate and stability of the Atlantic overturning, with possible associated global climate variations [Weijer et al., 1999]. Regional climate variations in the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean are known to affect the whole system of the Agulhas Current, including the interocean exchanges. This article reports on some of the seminal results of ongoing multinational, multidisciplinary projects that explore these issues.

Tropical Cyclones in a hieararchy of climate models of increasing resolution

Tropical Cyclone (TC) is normally not studied at the individual level with Global Climate Models (GCMs), because the coarse grid spacing is often deemed insufficient for a realistic representation of the basic underlying processes. GCMs are indeed routinely deployed at low resolution, in order to enable sufficiently long integrations, which means that only large-scale TC proxies are diagnosed. A new class of GCMs is emerging, however, which is capable of simulating TC-type vortexes by retaining a horizontal resolution similar to that of operational NWP GCMs; their integration on the latest supercomputers enables the completion of long-term integrations. The UK-Japan Climate Collaboration and the UK-HiGEM projects have developed climate GCMs which can be run routinely for decades (with grid spacing of 60 km) or centuries (with grid spacing of 90 km); when coupled to the ocean GCM, a mesh of 1/3 degrees provides eddy-permitting resolution. The 90 km resolution model has been developed entirely by the UK-HiGEM consortium (together with its 1/3 degree ocean component); the 60 km atmospheric GCM has been developed by UJCC, in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall

The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing similar TE interactions found globally. Uplift forcing for the extreme rainfall of each event is investigated. Unsurprisingly, quasigeostrophic uplift is found to dominate in the midlatitudes with convective processes strongest in the subtropics. Rainfall in the semiarid interior of South Africa appears to be a result of quasigeostrophically triggered convection. Investigation of TTT formation in the context of planetary waves shows that early development is sometimes associated with previous anticyclonic wave breaking south of the subcontinent, with full maturity of TTTs occurring as a potential vorticity trough approaches the continent from the west. Sensitivity to upstream wave perturbations and effects on anticyclonic wave breaking in the South Indian Ocean are also observed.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Mg/Ca ratios of Cenozoic benthic foraminifera from the Indian and South Atlantic Ocean

We investigate the evolution of Cenozoic climate and ice volume as evidenced by the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta18Osw) derived from benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios to constrain the temperature effect contained in foraminiferal delta18O values. We have constructed two benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca records from intermediate water depth sites (Ocean Drilling Program sites 757 and 689 from the subtropical Indian Ocean and the Weddell Sea, respectively). Together with the previously published composite record of Lear et al. (2002, doi:10.1126/science.287.5451.269) and the Neogene record from the Southern Ocean of Billups and Schrag (2002, doi:10.1029/2000PA000567), we obtain three, almost complete representations of the delta18Osw for the past 52 Myr. We discuss the sensitivity of early Cenozoic Mg/Ca-derived paleotemperatures (and hence the delta18Osw) to assumptions about seawater Mg/Ca ratios. We find that during the middle Eocene (~ 49-40 Ma), modern seawater ratios yield Mg/Ca-derived temperatures that are in good agreement with the oxygen isotope paleothermometer assuming ice-free conditions. Intermediate waters cooled during the middle Eocene reaching minimum temperatures by 40 Ma. The corresponding delta18Osw reconstructions support ice growth on Antarctica beginning by at least 40 Ma. At the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, Mg/Ca ratios (and hence temperatures) from Weddell Sea site 689 display a well-defined maximum. We caution against a paleoclimatic significance of this result and put forth that the partitioning coefficient of Mg in benthic foraminifera may be sensitive to factors other than temperature. Throughout the remainder of the Cenozoic, the temporal variability among delta18Osw records is similar and similar to longer-term trends in the benthic foraminiferal delta18O record. An exception occurs during the Pliocene when delta18Osw minima in two of the three records suggest reductions in global ice volume that are not apparent in foraminiferal delta18O records, which provides a new perspective to the ongoing debate about the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. Maximum delta18Osw values recorded during the Pleistocene at Southern Ocean site 747 agree well with values derived from the geochemistry of pore waters (Schrag et al., 1996, doi:10.1126/science.272.5270.1930) further highlighting the value of the new Mg/Ca calibrations of Martin et al. (2002, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(02)00472-7) and Lear et al. (2002, doi:10.1016/S0016-7037(02)00941-9) applied in this study. We conclude that the application of foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios allows a refined view of Cenozoic ice volume history despite uncertainties related to the geochemical cycling of Mg and Ca on long time scales.

(Table 1) Positions of the Mesocena elliptica zone in sediment cores from the Pacific and Indian Oceans

The Mesocena elliptica Ehr. zone in deep-sea sediments of the Pacific Ocean is characterized by a short vertical range at the base of the Pleistocene section. Depending on sedimentation rate this zone lies at various depths below the ocean bottom. M. elliptica is unknown in recent oceanic plankton. In fossil state known species indicate that sediments containing them are of Oligocene-Miocene age. New data obtained in early 1960's show that within a short interval, evidently in Early Pleistocene, M. elliptica was abundant in plankton, primarily in tropical regions. Correlation of paleomagnetic data with results of diatom analysis shows that the Mesocena elliptica zone always lies above the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary, and that maximum contents of M. elliptica coincide with the Jaramillo event (0.85-0.95 million years ago).

(Table 1) Positions of the Mesocena elliptica zone in sediment cores from the Pacific and Indian Oceans

The Mesocena elliptica Ehr. zone in deep-sea sediments of the Pacific Ocean is characterized by a short vertical range at the base of the Pleistocene section. Depending on sedimentation rate this zone lies at various depths below the ocean bottom. M. elliptica is unknown in recent oceanic plankton. In fossil state known species indicate that sediments containing them are of Oligocene-Miocene age. New data obtained in early 1960's show that within a short interval, evidently in Early Pleistocene, M. elliptica was abundant in plankton, primarily in tropical regions. Correlation of paleomagnetic data with results of diatom analysis shows that the Mesocena elliptica zone always lies above the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary, and that maximum contents of M. elliptica coincide with the Jaramillo event (0.85-0.95 million years ago).