Lessons for African economies from Irish and East Asian industry policy

When comparisons in terms of industrial policy lessons to be learned have taken place, it has tended to be solely vis-a-vis the ‘development state’ East Asian experience. This paper broadens the analysis and considers lessons which African countries can learn from other so-called ‘tiger’ economies including Ireland and the East and South Asian countries. We recognise that the latter are indeed clearly significant as many African countries at the time of independence had economic structures and levels of income quite similar to East Asian countries, yet have grown at vastly different rates since then. Exploring why this has been the case can thus offer important insights into possibilities for industrial policy. Yet this comes with some health warnings over East Asian experience. We suggest that another important contribution can come by looking at the Irish example, given its emphasis on corporatism rather than simply relying on state direction in the operation of industrial policy. The Irish model is also more democratic in some senses and has protected workers’ rights during the development process in contrast to the often highly dirigisite East Asian model. Overall we suggest that some immediate actions are needed, notably with regard to the financial system in small African economies. Without such changes, a poorly functioning financial system will continue to keep investment at low levels. In relation to the small size of the African economies, the paper recommends regional integration and sufficient overseas development assistance (ODA) for infrastructural development. It is also critical to note that the various small African economies each face their own industrial and economic development challenges, and that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not appropriate; rather the key is to tailor policies and systems to the unique opportunities and development challenges in each African country.

European biorefineries:implications for land, trade and employment

Biorefineries are expected to play a major role in a future low carbon economy and substantial investments are being made to support this vision. However, it is important to consider the wider socio-economic impacts of such a transition. This paper quantifies the potential trade, employment and land impacts of economically viable European biorefinery options based on indigenous straw and wood feedstocks. It illustrates how there could be potential for 70-80 European biorefineries, but not hundreds. A single facility could generate tens of thousands of man-years of employment and employment creation per unit of feedstock is higher than for biomass power plants. However, contribution to national GDP is unlikely to exceed 1% in European member states, although contributions to national agricultural productivity may be more significant, particularly with straw feedstocks. There is also a risk that biorefinery development could result in reduced rates of straw incorporation into soil, raising concerns that economically rational decisions to sell rather than reincorporate straw could result in increased agricultural land-use or greenhouse gas emissions. © 2013.

Globalisation, markets and healthcare policy:redrawing the patient as consumer

Although the last two decades have seen the healthcare systems of most developed countries face pressure for major reform, the impact of this reform on the relationship between empowerment, consumerism and citizen’s rights has received limited research attention. Globalisation, Markets and Healthcare Policy sets out to redress this imbalance. This book explores the extent to which globalisation and commercialisation relate to current and emerging health policies. It also looks at the implications for citizens, patients and social rights, as well as how policy making interacts with the interests of global and European trade and economic policies. Topics discussed include: •How the impact of globalisation on health systems is apparent in the influence of international actors and European policies. •How the impact of globalisation is mediated by national priorities and policies and is therefore reflected in diverse influences. •How commercialisation of health is presented as benefiting citizens and patients but has the potential to undermine the aims and values inherent in health systems. •How the role of citizens' interests, social rights, patient’s rights and priorities of patient and public involvement need to be separated from commercialisation, choice and consumerism in health care. Essential reading for policy makers and students of public policy, politics, law and health services, Globalisation, Markets and Healthcare Policy will also appeal to those interested in patient involvement international healthcare, international relations, trans-national organisations and the EU.

Industrial policy, FDI and employment:Still 'missing a strategy'

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any 'new' industrial policy.

"Trade creep" and implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement for the United Kingdom National Health Service

The ambitious and comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP/TAFTA) agreement between the European Union and United States is now being negotiated and may have far-reaching consequences for health services. The agreement extends to government procurement, investment, and further regulatory cooperation. In this article, we focus on the United Kingdom National Health Service and how these negotiations can limit policy space to change policies and to regulate in relation to health services, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and health industries. The negotiation of TTIP/TAFTA has the potential to "harmonize" more corporate-friendly regulation, resulting in higher costs and loss of policy space, an example of "trade creep" that potentially compromises health equity, public health, and safety concerns across the Atlantic.

Carbon emissions locked - in trade

In recent years there has been a growing concern about the emission trade balance of countries. It is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in the international trade, though trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure anymore, but it does contribute to the movement of embodied emissions beyond the country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy’s point of view, as it is known that the production-based principle is in effect now in the Kyoto agreement. The study aims at revealing the interdependence of countries on international trade and its environmental impacts, and how the carbon accounting method plays a crucial role in evaluating a country’s environmental performance and its role in the climate mitigation processes. The input-output models are used in the methodology, as they provide an appropriate framework for this kind of environmental accounting; the analysis shows an international comparison of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from the production-based approach in the climate policy, to the consumptionperspective principle and allocation [15], it would also help increasing the efficiency of emission reduction targets and the evaluation of the sustainability dimension and its impacts of international trade. The results of the study have shown that there is an importance of distinction between the two emission allocation approaches, both from global and local level point of view.

Impacts of EU Accession on Hungarian Primary and Processed Agricultural Trade

In 2004, Hungary joined the European Union (EU) along with nine other Central and Eastern European Countries, causing several changes in the field of agriculture. One of the major changes was the transformation of national agri-food trade. The aim of the paper is to analyse the effects of EU accession on the Hungarian primary and processed agri-food trade, especially considering revealed comparative advantages, by using recent data. Results suggest that EU accession raised the intensity of trade contacts but had a negative impact on trade balance. Nominal values of both exports and imports increased after 2004, however, Hungarian agriculture is increasingly based on raw material export and processed food import. It also turned out that revealed comparative advantages of Hungarian primary agri-food products in EU15 remained almost constant after accession, while comparative advantages of processed agri-food products has been gradually increasing by time and even reached the satisfactory level in some cases. From the policy perspective, it is apparent that there is a need for deeper structural reforms of the Hungarian agricultural and food sector is the future.

Általános egyensúlyi modellek alkalmazása gazdaságpolitikai elemzésekre (Application of general equilibrium models to economic policy analyses)

A szerző az alkalmazott többszektoros modellezés területén a lineáris programozási modellektől a számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modellekig végbement változásokat tekinti át. Egy rövid történeti visszapillantás után a lineáris programozás módszereire épülő nemzetgazdasági szintű modellekkel összevetve mutatja be az általános egyensúlyi modellek közös, illetve eltérő jellemzőit. Egyidejűleg azt is érzékelteti, hogyan lehet az általános egyensúlyi modelleket a gazdaságpolitikai célok konzisztenciájának, a célok közötti átváltási lehetőségek elemzésére és általában a gazdaságpolitikai elképzelések érzékenységi vizsgálatára felhasználni. A szerző az elméleti-módszertani kérdések taglalását számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modell segítségével illusztrálja. _______ The author surveys the changes having taken place in the field of multi-sector modeling, from the linear programming models to the quantified general equilibrium models. After a brief historical retrospection he presents the common and different characteristic features of the general equilibrium models by comparing them with the national economic level models based on the methods of linear programming. He also makes clear how the general equilibrium models can be used for analysing the consistency of economic policy targets, for the investigation of trade-off possibilities among the targets and, in general, for sensitivity analyses of economic policy targets. The discussion of theoretical and methodological quuestions is illustrated by the author with the aid of a quantified general equilibrium model.

Land Policy and Farm Structure: Challenges and Opportunities for Agriculture in the Western Balkan

Although Western Balkan countries are quite different, they can all be characterised by their one shared goal, to achieve the quickest possible accession to the European Union. Even though agriculture plays an important key role within all Western Balkan states, it’s share is the highest in Albania and only Serbia has a trade surplus. Land is a key production factor but all the analysed countries can be characterized by fragmented land structure and low average farm sizes. Mostly based on land ownership issues, a land reform index can be calculated. The major contribution of this paper to the literature is the reevaluated land reform index for the Western Balkans.

Patterns and Drivers of the Agri-Food Intra-Industry Trade of European Union Countries

This paper investigates the drivers of agri-food intra-industry trade (IIT) indices in the European Union (EU-27) member states during the period from 2000–2011. The increased proportion of IIT in matched two-way agri-food trade of the EU-27 member states is consistent with economic integration and economic growth. When export prices were at least 15% higher than the import prices, high-vertical IIT, increased for most member states. This finding suggests that quality improvements occurred when comparing agri-food exports to similar imports of agri-food products. The IIT indices for both horizontal and vertical IIT are positively associated with higher economic development levels, new EU membership and EU enlargement. Additionally, as higher levels of economic development decreases, the size of the economy and marginal IIT increases the effects of agri-food trade liberalization on the costs of the labor market adjustment. Understanding how improvements in agri-food trade quality impact agribusiness and managerial competitiveness reveal significant policy implications.

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

Three essays on trade and investment

From H. G. Johnson's work (Review of Economic Studies, 1953–54) on tariff retaliation, the questions of whether a country can win a “tariff war” and how or even the broader question of what will affect a country's strategic position in setting bilateral tariff have been tackled in various situations. Although it is widely accepted that a country will have strategic advantages in winning the tariff war if its relative monopoly power is sufficiently large, it is unclear what are the forces behind such power formation. The goal of this research is to provide a unified framework and discuss various forces such as relative country size, absolute advantages and relative advantages simultaneously. In a two-country continuum-of-commodity neoclassical trade model, it is shown that sufficiently large relative country size is a sufficient condition for a country to choose a non-cooperative tariff Nash equilibrium over free trade. It is also shown that technology disparities such as absolute advantage, rate of technology disparity and the distribution of the technology disparity all contribute to a country's strategic position and interact with country size. ^ Leverage effect is usually used to explain the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility in equity returns. However, leverage itself can only account for parts of the asymmetry. In this research, it is shown that stock return volatility is related to firms’ financial status. Financially constrained firms tend to be more sensitive to the return changes. Financial constraint factor explains why some firms tend to be more volatile than others. I found that the financial constraint factor explains the stock return volatility independent of other factors such as firm size, industry affiliation and leverage. Firms’ industry affiliations are shown to be very weak in differentiating volatility. Firm size is proven to be a good factor in distinguishing the different levels of volatility and volatility-return sensitivity. Leverage hypothesis is also partly corroborated and the situation where leverage effect is not applicable is discussed. Finally, I examined the macroeconomic policy's effects on overall market volatility. ^

Trade, justice, and the politics of difference: Small developing states in the World Trade Organization

The purpose of this research project was to investigate two distinct types of research questions – one theoretical, the other empirical: (1) What would justice mean in the context of the international trade regime? (2.Using the small developing states of the Commonwealth Caribbean as a case study, what do Commonwealth Caribbean trade negotiators mean when they appeal to justice? Regarding the first question, Iris Young's framework which focuses on the achievement of social justice in a domestic context by acknowledging social differences such as those based on race and gender, was adopted and its relevance argued in the international context of interstate trade negotiation so as to validate the notion of (size, location, and governance capacity) difference in this latter context. The point of departure is that while states are typically treated as equals in international law – as are individuals in liberal political theory – there are significant differences between states which warrant different treatment in the international arena. The study found that this re-formulation of justice which takes account of such differences between states, allows for more adequate policy responses than those offered by the presumption of equal treatment. Regarding the second question, this theoretical perspective was used to analyze the understandings of justice from which Commonwealth Caribbean trade negotiators proceed. Interpretive and ethnographic methods, including participant observation, interviews, field notes, and textual analysis, were employed to analyze their understandings of justice. The study found that these negotiators perceive such justice as being justice to difference because of the distinct characteristics of small developing states which combine to constrain their participation in the international trading system; based on this perception, they seek rules and outcomes in the multilateral trade regime which are sensitive to such different characteristics; and while these issues were examined in a specific region, its findings are relevant for other regions consisting of small developing states, such as those in the ACP group.

Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

ALBA: A Political Tool for Venezuela’s Foreign Policy

Despite its founding by Hugo Chávez on the heels of the failed Free Trade Area for the Americas (FTAA) negotiations which took place November 2003, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, as it is known for its Spanish acronym) has evolved into a political tool that uses “social power” to facilitate Venezuela‟s positioning as the leader of the anti-U.S. agenda in the region. Fostering political favors and goodwill through the financing of social development projects, ALBA has created a political environment whereby countries on the take and their respective leaders seem deterred from taking public opposing viewpoints to Chávez. To that end, it has provided billions in economic aid to several nations in Latin American and the Caribbean, winning their favor and support for its policies. To date, ALBA counts on eight member nations. Besides Venezuela, it includes Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. It also has several observer nations, among them, Grenada, Haiti, Paraguay, Uruguay, and a non-Latin American country, Syria. Throughout its recent history Venezuela has used its oil wealth to pursue political capital. Under the Chávez government it is doing so as part of a strategic effort countering the U.S. Following Cuba‟s demise in the region as the anti-American socialist camp leader, Chávez is attempting to step into Cuba‟s shoes, picking up where Cuba left off over a decade ago and has used the ALBA as a mechanism to help promote his foreign policy. Relying on its own resources, not those of the Soviet Union as Cuba once did, Venezuela has already shown its influence in the international arena, challenging U.S. positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), the United Nations, and even in matters having little if nothing to do with the region, such as Iran‟s nuclear proliferation. Taking advantage of Venezuela‟s oil prices bonanza, Chávez has been spreading economic aid throughout the region, funding several development projects. From stepping in to buy Bolivia‟s soy beans when the U.S. ceased doing so, to helping finance and construct an airport in Dominica, Venezuela‟s ALBA has provided assistance to many states in the region. As in the past, Venezuela has invested significantly both in time and money in the Caribbean, providing development assistance and oil at a discount to Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Dominican Republic, although the latter two are neither member nor observer states of ALBA. The aid Chávez has been spreading around may be coming at a cost. It seems it has begun to cause cracks within the CARICOM community, where ALBA already counts on six of its 15 members, leading experts and leaders in the region to question traditional alliances to each other and the U.S. Yet, ALBA‟s ability to influence through aid is dependent on the Venezuelan economy. Its success hinges on continued Venezuelan oil sales at stable prices and the ability of Chávez to remain in power.