Analysis of Poverty Dynamics in Canada (Working Paper 9)

While we know much about poverty (or “low income”) in Canada in a static context, our understanding of the underlying dynamics remains very limited. This is particularly problematic from a policy perspective and the country has been increasingly left out on an international level in this regard. The contribution of this paper is to report the results of an empirical analysis of low income (“poverty”) dynamics in Canada using the recently available “LAD” tax-based database. The paper first describes the general nature of individuals’ poverty profiles (how many are short-term versus longterm, etc.)., the breakdown of the poor population in any given year amongst these different types, and the characterisation of poverty profiles by sex and family type. It then reports the estimation of various econometric models, starting with a set which specifies entry into and exit from poverty in any given year as a function of a variety of personal attributes and situational characteristics, including family status and changes therein, province of residence, inter-provincial mobility, language, area size of residence and calendar year (to capture trend effects). A set of proper hazard models then adds duration effects to these specifications to see how exit and re-entry probabilities shift with the amount of time spent in a poverty spell or after having exited a previous spell. A final set of specifications then investigates “occurrence dependence” effects by including past poverty spells first in an entry model and then with respect to the probability of being poor in a given year. Policy implications are discussed.

The LiDAR Compass: Extremely Lightweight Heading Estimation with Axis Maps

This paper introduces the LiDAR compass, a bounded and extremely lightweight heading estimation technique that combines a two-dimensional laser scanner and axis maps, which represent the orientations of flat surfaces in the environment. Although suitable for a variety of indoor and outdoor environments, the LiDAR compass is especially useful for embedded and real-time applications requiring low computational overhead. For example, when combined with a sensor that can measure translation (e.g., wheel encoders) the LiDAR compass can be used to yield accurate, lightweight, and very easily implementable localization that requires no prior mapping phase. The utility of using the LiDAR compass as part of a localization algorithm was tested on a widely-available open-source data set, an indoor environment, and a larger-scale outdoor environment. In all cases, it was shown that the growth in heading error was bounded, which significantly reduced the position error to less than 1% of the distance travelled.

An R-package for the Estimation and Testing of Multiple Covariates and Biomarker Interactions for Survival Data Based on Local Partial Likelihood

When we study the variables that a ffect survival time, we usually estimate their eff ects by the Cox regression model. In biomedical research, e ffects of the covariates are often modi ed by a biomarker variable. This leads to covariates-biomarker interactions. Here biomarker is an objective measurement of the patient characteristics at baseline. Liu et al. (2015) has built up a local partial likelihood bootstrap model to estimate and test this interaction e ffect of covariates and biomarker, but the R code developed by Liu et al. (2015) can only handle one variable and one interaction term and can not t the model with adjustment to nuisance variables. In this project, we expand the model to allow adjustment to nuisance variables, expand the R code to take any chosen interaction terms, and we set up many parameters for users to customize their research. We also build up an R package called "lplb" to integrate the complex computations into a simple interface. We conduct numerical simulation to show that the new method has excellent fi nite sample properties under both the null and alternative hypothesis. We also applied the method to analyze data from a prostate cancer clinical trial with acid phosphatase (AP) biomarker.

Axis Mapping: The Estimation of Surface Orientations and its Applications in Vehicle Localization and Structural Geology

The map representation of an environment should be selected based on its intended application. For example, a geometrically accurate map describing the Euclidean space of an environment is not necessarily the best choice if only a small subset its features are required. One possible subset is the orientations of the flat surfaces in the environment, represented by a special parameterization of normal vectors called axes. Devoid of positional information, the entries of an axis map form a non-injective relationship with the flat surfaces in the environment, which results in physically distinct flat surfaces being represented by a single axis. This drastically reduces the complexity of the map, but retains important information about the environment that can be used in meaningful applications in both two and three dimensions. This thesis presents axis mapping, which is an algorithm that accurately and automatically estimates an axis map of an environment based on sensor measurements collected by a mobile platform. Furthermore, two major applications of axis maps are developed and implemented. First, the LiDAR compass is a heading estimation algorithm that compares measurements of axes with an axis map of the environment. Pairing the LiDAR compass with simple translation measurements forms the basis for an accurate two-dimensional localization algorithm. It is shown that this algorithm eliminates the growth of heading error in both indoor and outdoor environments, resulting in accurate localization over long distances. Second, in the context of geotechnical engineering, a three-dimensional axis map is called a stereonet, which is used as a tool to examine the strength and stability of a rock face. Axis mapping provides a novel approach to create accurate stereonets safely, rapidly, and inexpensively compared to established methods. The non-injective property of axis maps is leveraged to probabilistically describe the relationships between non-sequential measurements of the rock face. The automatic estimation of stereonets was tested in three separate outdoor environments. It is shown that axis mapping can accurately estimate stereonets while improving safety, requiring significantly less time and effort, and lowering costs compared to traditional and current state-of-the-art approaches.

Forward-in-Time, Spatially Explicit Modeling Software to Simulate Genetic Lineages Under Selection

SELECTOR is a software package for studying the evolution of multiallelic genes under balancing or positive selection while simulating complex evolutionary scenarios that integrate demographic growth and migration in a spatially explicit population framework. Parameters can be varied both in space and time to account for geographical, environmental, and cultural heterogeneity. SELECTOR can be used within an approximate Bayesian computation estimation framework. We first describe the principles of SELECTOR and validate the algorithms by comparing its outputs for simple models with theoretical expectations. Then, we show how it can be used to investigate genetic differentiation of loci under balancing selection in interconnected demes with spatially heterogeneous gene flow. We identify situations in which balancing selection reduces genetic differentiation between population groups compared with neutrality and explain conflicting outcomes observed for human leukocyte antigen loci. These results and three previously published applications demonstrate that SELECTOR is efficient and robust for building insight into human settlement history and evolution.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Deep Head Pose: Gaze-Direction Estimation in Multimodal Video

In this paper we present a convolutional neuralnetwork (CNN)-based model for human head pose estimation inlow-resolution multi-modal RGB-D data. We pose the problemas one of classification of human gazing direction. We furtherfine-tune a regressor based on the learned deep classifier. Next wecombine the two models (classification and regression) to estimateapproximate regression confidence. We present state-of-the-artresults in datasets that span the range of high-resolution humanrobot interaction (close up faces plus depth information) data tochallenging low resolution outdoor surveillance data. We buildupon our robust head-pose estimation and further introduce anew visual attention model to recover interaction with theenvironment. Using this probabilistic model, we show thatmany higher level scene understanding like human-human/sceneinteraction detection can be achieved. Our solution runs inreal-time on commercial hardware

Noise resilient discrete-time cross-relation sensor characterisation

In-situ characterisation of thermocouple sensors is a challenging problem. Recently the authors presented a blind characterisation technique based on the cross-relation method of blind identification. The method allows in-situ identification of two thermocouple probes, each with a different dynamic response, using only sampled sensor measurement data. While the technique offers certain advantages over alternative methods, including low estimation variance and the ability to compensate for noise induced bias, the robustness of the method is limited by the multimodal nature of the cost function. In this paper, a normalisation term is proposed which improves the convexity of
the cost function. Further, a normalisation and bias compensation hybrid approach is presented that exploits the advantages of both normalisation and bias compensation. It is found that the optimum of the hybrid cost function is less biased and more stable than when only normalisation is applied. All results were verified by simulation.

Quantum-limited estimation of continuous spontaneous localization

We apply the formalism of quantum estimation theory to extract information about potential collapse mechanisms of the continuous spontaneous localisation (CSL) form.
In order to estimate the strength with which the field responsible for the CSL mechanism couples to massive systems, we consider the optomechanical interaction
between a mechanical resonator and a cavity field. Our estimation strategy passes through the probing of either the state of the oscillator or that of the electromagnetic field that drives its motion. In particular, we concentrate on all-optical measurements, such as homodyne and heterodyne measurements.
We also compare the performances of such strategies with those of a spin-assisted optomechanical system, where the estimation of the CSL parameter is performed
through time-gated spin-like measurements.

Real-time depth camera tracking with CAD models and ICP

In recent years, depth cameras have been widely utilized in camera tracking for augmented and mixed reality. Many of the studies focus on the methods that generate the reference model simultaneously with the tracking and allow operation in unprepared environments. However, methods that rely on predefined CAD models have their advantages. In such methods, the measurement errors are not accumulated to the model, they are tolerant to inaccurate initialization, and the tracking is always performed directly in reference model's coordinate system. In this paper, we present a method for tracking a depth camera with existing CAD models and the Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. In our approach, we render the CAD model using the latest pose estimate and construct a point cloud from the corresponding depth map. We construct another point cloud from currently captured depth frame, and find the incremental change in the camera pose by aligning the point clouds. We utilize a GPGPU-based implementation of the ICP which efficiently uses all the depth data in the process. The method runs in real-time, it is robust for outliers, and it does not require any preprocessing of the CAD models. We evaluated the approach using the Kinect depth sensor, and compared the results to a 2D edge-based method, to a depth-based SLAM method, and to the ground truth. The results show that the approach is more stable compared to the edge-based method and it suffers less from drift compared to the depth-based SLAM.

Generic wind estimation and compensation based on residual generators and higher-order sliding mode schemes

This master thesis proposes a solution to the approach problem in case of unknown severe microburst wind shear for a fixed-wing aircraft, accounting for both longitudinal and lateral dynamics. The adaptive controller design for wind rejection is also addressed, exploiting the wind estimation provided by suitable estimators. It is able to successfully complete the final approach phase even in presence of wind shear, and at the same time aerodynamic envelope protection is retained. The adaptive controller for wind compensation has been designed by a backstepping approach and feedback linearization for time-varying systems. The wind shear components have been estimated by higher-order sliding mode schemes. At the end of this work the results are provided, an autonomous final approach in presence of microburst is discussed, performances are analyzed, and estimation of the microburst characteristics from telemetry data is examined.

Shift Scheduling in Services When Employees Have Limited Availability: An L. P. Approach

This paper compares two linear programming (LP) models for shift scheduling in services where homogeneously-skilled employees are available at limited times. Although both models are based on set covering approaches, one explicitly matches employees to shifts, while the other imposes this matching implicitly. Each model is used in three forms—one with complete, another with very limited meal break placement flexibility, and a third without meal breaks—to provide initial schedules to a completion/improvement heuristic. The term completion/improvement heuristic is used to describe a construction/ improvement heuristic operating on a starting schedule. On 80 test problems varying widely in scheduling flexibility, employee staffing requirements, and employee availability characteristics, all six LP-based procedures generated lower cost schedules than a comparison from-scratch construction/improvement heuristic. This heuristic, which perpetually maintains an explicit matching of employees to shifts, consists of three phases which add, drop, and modify shifts. In terms of schedule cost, schedule generation time, and model size, the procedures based on the implicit model performed better, as a group, than those based on the explicit model. The LP model with complete break placement flexibility and implicitly matching employees to shifts generated schedules costing 6.7% less than those developed by the from-scratch heuristic.

The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Estimation du paramètre d'une copule archimedienne en présence de censure dépendante

Les méthodes classiques d’analyse de survie notamment la méthode non paramétrique de Kaplan et Meier (1958) supposent l’indépendance entre les variables d’intérêt et de censure. Mais, cette hypothèse d’indépendance n’étant pas toujours soutenable, plusieurs auteurs ont élaboré des méthodes pour prendre en compte la dépendance. La plupart de ces méthodes émettent des hypothèses sur cette dépendance. Dans ce mémoire, nous avons proposé une méthode d’estimation de la dépendance en présence de censure dépendante qui utilise le copula-graphic estimator pour les copules archimédiennes (Rivest etWells, 2001) et suppose la connaissance de la distribution de la variable de censure. Nous avons ensuite étudié la consistance de cet estimateur à travers des simulations avant de l’appliquer sur un jeu de données réelles.