The Use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Performing Alternatives Assessment and Comparative Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Codling Moth Pesticides

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Evaluation of Community-led Complementary Feeding and Learning Sessions

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Field Evaluation of a Competitive Lateral-flow Assay for Detection of Alternaria brassicae in Vegetable Brassica Crops

On-site detection of inoculum of polycyclic plant pathogens could potentially contribute to management of disease outbreaks. A 6-min, in-field competitive immunochromatographic lateral flow device (CLFD) assay was developed for detection of Alternaria brassicae (the cause of dark leaf spot in brassica crops) in air sampled above the crop canopy. Visual recording of the test result by eye provides a detection threshold of approximately 50 dark leaf spot conidia. Assessment using a portable reader improved test sensitivity. In combination with a weather-driven infection model, CLFD assays were evaluated as part of an in-field risk assessment to identify periods when brassica crops were at risk from A. brassicae infection. The weather-driven model overpredicted A. brassicae infection. An automated 7-day multivial cyclone air sampler combined with a daily in-field CLFD assay detected A. brassicae conidia air samples from above the crops. Integration of information from an in-field detection system (CLFD) with weather-driven mathematical models predicting pathogen infection have the potential for use within disease management systems.

Exercise and Lifestyle Therapy Improves Weight Maintenance in Young People With Psychosis: A Service Evaluation

INTRODUCTION Young people with psychosis typically have higher rates of premature cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders compared to non-psychotic peers. This has been primarily due to a sedentary lifestyle, poor diet composition, misuse of harmful substances and higher rates of obesity and smoking. When prescribed obesogenic antipsychotic medication, a weight gain of >12 kg within 2 years is typical. PURPOSE: To examine the benefits of a 12 wk exercise and lifestyle intervention entitled ‘Supporting Health and Promoting Exercise’ (SHAPE) for young people recently diagnosed with psychosis. METHODS Participants (n=26; 8 females; mean age 27.7 ± 5.1) engaged in weekly 45’ education sessions on healthy lifestyle behaviors, including: managing anxiety and depression, mindfulness and relaxation training, substance misuse, smoking cessation, healthy eating and nutritional advice, dental and sexual health care. This was followed by a 45’ exercise session including activities such as circuit and resistance training, yoga, and badminton, led by qualified exercise instructors. Anthropometric data were measured at baseline, 12 wk and 12 month post-intervention. Lifestyle behaviors and clinical measurements, including resting heart rate, blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglycerides, HbA1c and prolactin, were assessed at baseline and 12 months post-intervention as part of their routine clinical care plan. Significant differences over time were assessed using Paired Sample t-tests. RESULTS SHAPE participants (n=26) presented with first episode psychosis (n=11), schizophrenia (n=11), bipolar disorder (n=2), at risk mental state (n=1), and persistent delusion disorder (n=1) of which 52% were prescribed highly obesogenic antipsychotic medications (Clozapine and Olanzepine). Mean baseline data suggests participants were at an increased health risk due to elevated values in mean BMI (70% were overweight or obese), waist circumference, resting heart rate, and triglycerides (see Table 1 & 2). Over 50% reported smoking daily and 85% had elevated resting blood pressure (>120/80 mm Hg). At 12 wk post-intervention, no changes were observed in mean BMI or waist circumference (see Table 1); 19 participants either maintained (mean 0.5 kg: range ± 2 kg) or decreased (mean -5.7 kg: range 2-7 kg) weight; 7 participants increased weight (mean 4.9 kg: range 2.0-9.6 kg). At 12 month post-intervention (n=16), no change was evident in mean BMI, waist circumference, or any other clinical variable (see Table 2). Positive impacts on lifestyle behaviors included 7 participants eating ~400g of fruit/vegetables daily, 2 ceased substance use, 2 ceased alcohol use, 4 ceased smoking and 5 were less sedentary. CONCLUSION At the start of the programme, participants were already at an increased risk for cardiometabolic disorders. Findings suggest that SHAPE supported young people with psychosis to: -attenuate their physical health risk following a 12 wk exercise and lifestyle intervention which were sustained at 12 months follow up. -make positive lifestyle behavior changes leading to sustained improvements in weight maintenance and physical health.

Decision making models embedded into a web-based tool for assessing pest infestation risk

Current practices in agricultural management involve the application of rules and techniques to ensure high quality and environmentally friendly production. Based on their experience, agricultural technicians and farmers make critical decisions affecting crop growth while considering several interwoven agricultural, technological, environmental, legal and economic factors. In this context, decision support systems and the knowledge models that support them, enable the incorporation of valuable experience into software systems providing support to agricultural technicians to make rapid and effective decisions for efficient crop growth. Pest control is an important issue in agricultural management due to crop yield reductions caused by pests and it involves expert knowledge. This paper presents a formalisation of the pest control problem and the workflow followed by agricultural technicians and farmers in integrated pest management, the crop production strategy that combines different practices for growing healthy crops whilst minimising pesticide use. A generic decision schema for estimating infestation risk of a given pest on a given crop is defined and it acts as a metamodel for the maintenance and extension of the knowledge embedded in a pest management decision support system which is also presented. This software tool has been implemented by integrating a rule-based tool into web-based architecture. Evaluation from validity and usability perspectives concluded that both agricultural technicians and farmers considered it a useful tool in pest control, particularly for training new technicians and inexperienced farmers.

An evaluation of carbon offset supplementation options for beef production systems on coastal speargrass in central Queensland, Australia

In 2014, the Australian Government implemented the Emissions Reduction Fund to offer incentives for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by following approved methods. Beef cattle businesses in northern Australia can participate by applying the 'reducing GHG emissions by feeding nitrates to beef cattle' methodology and the 'beef cattle herd management' methods. The nitrate (NO3) method requires that each baseline area must demonstrate a history of urea use. Projects earn Australian carbon credit units (ACCU) for reducing enteric methane emissions by substituting NO3 for urea at the same amount of fed nitrogen. NO3 must be fed in the form of a lick block because most operations do not have labour or equipment to manage daily supplementation. NO3 concentrations, after a 2-week adaptation period, must not exceed 50 g NO3/adult animal equivalent per day or 7 g NO3/kg dry matter intake per day to reduce the risk of NO3 toxicity. There is also a 'beef cattle herd management' method, approved in 2015, that covers activities that improve the herd emission intensity (emissions per unit of product sold) through change in the diet or management. The present study was conducted to compare the required ACCU or supplement prices for a 2% return on capital when feeding a low or high supplement concentration to breeding stock of either (1) urea, (2) three different forms of NO3 or (3) cottonseed meal (CSM), at N concentrations equivalent to 25 or 50 g urea/animal equivalent, to fasten steer entry to a feedlot (backgrounding), in a typical breeder herd on the coastal speargrass land types in central Queensland. Monte Carlo simulations were run using the software @risk, with probability functions used for (1) urea, NO3 and CSM prices, (2) GHG mitigation, (3) livestock prices and (4) carbon price. Increasing the weight of steers at a set turnoff month by feeding CSM was found to be the most cost-effective option, with or without including the offset income. The required ACCU prices for a 2% return on capital were an order of magnitude higher than were indicative carbon prices in 2015 for the three forms of NO3. The likely costs of participating in ERF projects would reduce the return on capital for all mitigation options. © CSIRO 2016.

Impact of Routine Fractional Flow Reserve Evaluation During Coronary Angiography on Management Strategy and Clinical Outcome: One-Year Results of the POST-IT.

Penetration of fractional flow reserve (FFR) in clinical practice varies extensively, and the applicability of results from randomized trials is understudied. We describe the extent to which the information gained from routine FFR affects patient management strategy and clinical outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: Nonselected patients undergoing coronary angiography, in which at least 1 lesion was interrogated by FFR, were prospectively enrolled in a multicenter registry. FFR-driven change in management strategy (medical therapy, revascularization, or additional stress imaging) was assessed per-lesion and per-patient, and the agreement between final and initial strategies was recorded. Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or unplanned revascularization (MACE) at 1 year was recorded. A total of 1293 lesions were evaluated in 918 patients (mean FFR, 0.81±0.1). Management plan changed in 406 patients (44.2%) and 584 lesions (45.2%). One-year MACE was 6.9%; patients in whom all lesions were deferred had a lower MACE rate (5.3%) than those with at least 1 lesion revascularized (7.3%) or left untreated despite FFR≤0.80 (13.6%; log-rank P=0.014). At the lesion level, deferral of those with an FFR≤0.80 was associated with a 3.1-fold increase in the hazard of cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction/target lesion revascularization (P=0.012). Independent predictors of target lesion revascularization in the deferred lesions were proximal location of the lesion, B2/C type and FFR. CONCLUSIONS: Routine FFR assessment of coronary lesions safely changes management strategy in almost half of the cases. Also, it accurately identifies patients and lesions with a low likelihood of events, in which revascularization can be safely deferred, as opposed to those at high risk when ischemic lesions are left untreated, thus confirming results from randomized trials.

Portuguese children exposure to multiple mycotoxins through food consumption: toward a holistic approach for multiple mycotoxins risk assessment

Humans can be exposed to multiple chemicals at once from a variety of sources, and human risk assessment of multiple chemicals poses several challenges to scientists, risk assessors and risk managers. Ingestion of food is considered a major route of exposure to many contaminants, namely mycotoxins, especially for vulnerable population groups, as children. A lack of sufficient data regarding mycotoxins children risk assessment, could contribute to an inaccuracy of the estimated risk. Efforts must be undertaken to develop initiatives that promote a broad overview of multiple mycotoxins risk assessment. The present work, developed within the MYCOMIX project, aims to assess the risk associated to the exposure of Portuguese children (< 3 years old) to multiple mycotoxins through consumption of foods primarily marketed for this age group. A holistic approach was developed applying deterministic and probabilistic tools to the calculation of mycotoxin daily intake values, integrating children food consumption (3-days food diary), mycotoxins occurrence (HPLC-UV, HPLC-FD, LC-MS/MS and GC-MS), bioaccessibility (standardized in vitro digestion model) and toxicological data (in vitro evaluation of cytotoxicity, genotoxicity and intestinal impact). A case study concerning Portuguese children exposure to patulin (PAT) and ochratoxin A (OTA), two mycotoxins co-occurring in processed cereal-based foods (PCBF) marketed in Portugal, was developed. Main results showed that there is low concern from a public health point of view relatively to PAT and OTA Portuguese children exposure through consumption of PCBF, considering the estimated daily intakes of these two mycotoxins (worst case scenarios, 22.930 ng/kg bw/day and 0.402 ng/kg bw/day, for PAT and OTA, respectively), their bioaccessibility and toxicology results. However, the present case study only concerns the risk associated with the consumption of PCBF and child diet include several other foods. The present work underlines the need to adopt a holistic approach for multiple mycotoxins risk assessment integrating data from exposure, bioacessibility and toxicity domains in order to contribute to a more accurate risk assessment.

Trombose venosa profunda em idade pediátrica – estudo retrospetivo de 10 anos

Introdução e Objetivos: A trombose venosa profunda (TVP) e o tromboembolismo pulmonar são os componentes do tromboembolismo venoso (TEV) que, embora infrequente, é uma entidade emergente na pediatria. Apresentamos uma casuística cujo objetivo é a avaliação dos aspetos mais relevantes da TVP em idade pediátrica e da sua abordagem terapêutica. Metodologia: Revisão retrospetiva descritiva dos processos dos doentes internados na última década com o diagnóstico de TVP no Serviço de Pediatria da ULSAM. Resultados: Identificaram-se seis doentes, cinco deles do sexo feminino. A mediana de idades foi 17 anos. O edema do membro afetado esteve sempre presente e o segmento venoso mais atingido foi o ileofemoral (2/6). Houve concomitância de pelo menos dois fatores de risco adquiridos em três doentes, sendo o mais frequente o contracetivo oral combinado. Foi excluída trombofilia hereditária em cinco doentes mas ainda aguardamos o resultado do estudo de um doente. O tempo médio de tratamento foi de 9,8 meses. Discussão e Conclusão: A TVP na criança tem sido reconhecida como uma patologia rara, mas importante causa de morbilidade. A maior incidência de TVP foi documentada na adolescência com compromisso do membro inferior, tal como referido na literatura. Verificamos uma conjugação de fatores de risco que, provavelmente, se potenciaram entre si levando à ocorrência do TEV e colocamos a possibilidade do Pediatra se estar a deparar com uma nova realidade anteriormente excluída do atendimento pediátrico. O aumento na incidência desta patologia levanta a questão do acréscimo de risco trombótico nos adolescentes do sexo feminino devido à utilização de contracetivos orais combinados. Salientamos a importância de um consenso nacional no diagnóstico, tratamento e prevenção desta entidade em Pediatria.

National evaluation of NHS genetics service investments: emerging issues from the cancer genetics pilots

In seeking to fulfil the ambition of the 2003 genetics white paper, Our Inheritance, Our Future, to ‘mainstream’ genetic knowledge and practices, the Department of Health provided start-up funding for pilot services in various clinical areas, including seven cancer genetics projects. To help to understand the challenges encountered by such an attempt at reconfiguring the organization and delivery of services in this field, a programme-level evaluation of the genetics projects was commissioned to consider the organizational issues faced. Using a qualitative approach, this research has involved comparative case-study work in 11 of the pilot sites, including four of the seven cancer genetics pilots. In this paper, the researchers present early findings from their work, focusing in particular on the cancer genetics pilots. They consider some of the factors that have influenced how the pilots have sought to address pre-existing sector, organizational and professional boundaries to these new ways of working. The article examines the relationship between these factors and the extent to which pilots have succeeded in setting up boundary-spanning services, dealing with human-resource issues and creating sustainable, ‘mainstreamed’ provision which attracts ongoing funding in a volatile NHS commissioning environment where funding priorities do not always favour preventive, risk-assessment services.

Evaluation of ergonomic approach and musculoskeletal disorders in two different organizations in a truck assembly plant

International audience

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

"Family Education and Support" program for families at psychosocial risk: the role of implementation process

This paper analyses the implementation characteristics of the Family Education and Support program, a theory-driven, needs-based, and evidence-based positive parenting program originally developed for the Andalusian family preservation services. The implementation process of 34 trials of the FAF program with 155 participants was analyzed. Cluster analyses were also performed to explore variability in implementation conditions from a comprehensive perspective. Results showed different implementation profiles that moderated the FAF effectiveness (namely lengthier interventions, higher program fidelity, and practitioners' positive perceptions and satisfaction with the program). The relevance of examining implementation process across several trials is discussed in order to distinguish core and non-core FAF components, as well as the need for combining faithful and adaptable implementations that guarantee the ecologic validity of evidence-based positive parenting programs.

"Learning together, growing with family": the implementation and evaluation of a family support programme

The "Learning together, growing with family" programme is targeted to at-risk parents and children from 6 to 11 years old, with a preventive focus on promoting positive parent-child relationships. In this study, we examined the quality of the programme implementation and its influence on the programme results in a sample of 425 parents and 138 facilitators drawn from the first trial. Mixed methods were used, consisting of: parental self-reports on parenting dimensions, professionals' records on parental attendance and appraisals on six topics of the implementation process, and focus group discussions in which facilitators reported on the initial steps of the implementation. Results showed a high quality of implementation with respect to the group facilitator and the programme organization factors, followed by the coordination with services and the support facilities offered to participants and, finally, by the factors of fidelity and prior organization steps. Results of the focus groups confirmed that the prior steps were challenging and offered the more effective strategies. Better quality in the implementation factors predicted better parenting styles and parental competencies after the programme, as well as a higher attendance rate. In sum, this study demonstrates the importance of good implementation in at-risk contexts and provides some clues as to the key elements that moderate programme effectiveness.

A risk model with an observer in a Markov environment

We consider a spectrally-negative Markov additive process as a model of a risk process in a random environment. Following recent interest in alternative ruin concepts, we assume that ruin occurs when an independent Poissonian observer sees the process as negative, where the observation rate may depend on the state of the environment. Using an approximation argument and spectral theory, we establish an explicit formula for the resulting survival probabilities in this general setting. We also discuss an efficient evaluation of the involved quantities and provide a numerical illustration.