Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK

Atmospheric moisture characteristics associated with the heaviest 1% of daily rainfall events affecting regions of the British Isles are analysed over the period 1997–2008. A blended satellite/rain-gauge data set (GPCP-1DD) and regionally averaged daily rain-gauge observations (HadUKP) are combined with the ERA Interim reanalysis. These are compared with simulations from the HadGEM2-A climate model which applied observed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings. Median extreme daily rainfall across the identified events and locations is larger for GPCP (32 mm day−1) than HadUKP and the simulations (∼25 mm day−1). The heaviest observed and simulated daily rainfall events are associated with increased specific humidity and horizontal transport of moisture (median 850 hPa specific humidity of ∼6 g kg−1 and vapour transport of ∼150 g kg−1 m s−1 for both observed and simulated events). Extreme daily rainfall events are less common during spring and summer across much of the British Isles, but in the south east region, they contribute up to 60% of the total number of distinct extreme daily rainfall events during these months. Compared to winter events, the summer events over south east Britain are associated with a greater magnitude and more southerly location of moisture maxima and less spatially extensive regions of enhanced moisture transport. This contrasting dependence of extreme daily rainfall on moisture characteristics implies a range of driving mechanisms that depend upon location and season. Higher spatial and temporal resolution data are required to explore these processes further, which is vital in assessing future projected changes in rainfall and associated flooding.

An LDA and probability-based classifier for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease from structural MRI

In this paper a custom classification algorithm based on linear discriminant analysis and probability-based weights is implemented and applied to the hippocampus measurements of structural magnetic resonance images from healthy subjects and Alzheimer’s Disease sufferers; and then attempts to diagnose them as accurately as possible. The classifier works by classifying each measurement of a hippocampal volume as healthy controlsized or Alzheimer’s Disease-sized, these new features are then weighted and used to classify the subject as a healthy control or suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease. The preliminary results obtained reach an accuracy of 85.8% and this is a similar accuracy to state-of-the-art methods such as a Naive Bayes classifier and a Support Vector Machine. An advantage of the method proposed in this paper over the aforementioned state of the art classifiers is the descriptive ability of the classifications it produces. The descriptive model can be of great help to aid a doctor in the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s Disease, or even further the understand of how Alzheimer’s Disease affects the hippocampus.

A Genetic Algorithm for the selection of structural MRI features for classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease

This work investigates the problem of feature selection in neuroimaging features from structural MRI brain images for the classification of subjects as healthy controls, suffering from Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer’s Disease. A Genetic Algorithm wrapper method for feature selection is adopted in conjunction with a Support Vector Machine classifier. In very large feature sets, feature selection is found to be redundant as the accuracy is often worsened when compared to an Support Vector Machine with no feature selection. However, when just the hippocampal subfields are used, feature selection shows a significant improvement of the classification accuracy. Three-class Support Vector Machines and two-class Support Vector Machines combined with weighted voting are also compared with the former and found more useful. The highest accuracy achieved at classifying the test data was 65.5% using a genetic algorithm for feature selection with a three-class Support Vector Machine classifier.

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

Investigation of the impact of anthropogenic heat flux within an urban land surface model and PILPS-urban

Results from the first international urban model comparison experiment (PILPS-Urban) suggested that models which neglected the anthropogenic heat flux within the surface energy balance performed at least as well as models that include the source term, but this could not be explained. The analyses undertaken show that the results from PILPS-Urban were masked by the signal from including vegetation, which was identified in PILPS-Urban as being important. Including the anthropogenic heat flux does give improved performance, but the benefit is small for the site studied given the relatively small magnitude of this flux relative to other terms in the surface energy balance. However, there is no further benefit from including temporal variations in the flux at this site. The importance is expected to increase at sites with a larger anthropogenic heat flux and greater temporal variations.

Putting the Canal on the map: Panamanian agenda-setting and the 1973 Security Council meetings

In the early 1970s, Panama’s negotiations with the United States over the status of the Panama Canal ground to a standstill. General Omar Torrijos had rejected treaties left unratified by previous governments only to receive a less generous offer from the Nixon administration. Realizing that the talks were being ignored in Washington, the Panamanian government worked to internationalize the previously bilateral issue, creating and exploiting a high-profile forum: Extraordinary meetings of the UN Security Council in March 1973 held in Panama City. In those meetings, Panama isolated the United States in order to raise the issue’s profile and amplify the costs of leaving the matter unsettled. Using underutilized Panamanian sources, this article examines that meeting, the succeeding progress, and the effect of this early stage on the final negotiations several years later. The case also illustrates how, during the unsettled international environment of the 1970s, a small state utilized international organizations to obtain attention and support for its most important cause.

Cosmic ray measurements in the atmosphere at several latitudes in October, 2014

Cosmic ray fluxes in the atmosphere were recorded during balloon flights in October 2014 in northern Murmansk region, Apatity (Russia; 67o33’N, 33o24’E), in Antarctica (observatory Mirny; 66o33’S, 93o00’E), in Moscow (Russia; 55o45’N, 37o37’E), in Reading (United King-dom; 51o27’N, 0o 58’W), in Mitzpe-Ramon (Israel; 30o36’N, 34o48’E) and in Zaragoza (Spain; 41o9’N, 0o54’W). Two type of cosmic ray detectors were used, namely, (1) the standard ra-diosonde and its modification constructed at the Lebedev Physical Institute (Moscow, Russia) and (2) the device manufactured at the Reading University (Reading, United Kingdom). We compare and analyze obtained data and focus on the estimation of the cosmic ray latitudinal effect in the atmosphere.

The rise and fall of Benedetto Croce: intellectual positionings in the Italian cultural field 1944-1947

This article evaluates the discourse developed around Benedetto Croce in the Italian cultural periodical press between 1944 and 1947 and it discusses the forms of adversarial discourse and the agents involved in the anti-Croce polemics that unfolded in the Communist party’s official cultural journal Rinascita. Specifically, this article focuses on a selection of intellectuals who moved away from Crocean idealism to embrace Marxism in order to investigate how their conversion was presented in Rinascita.