Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Functional components and lipid quality assessment in vegetable foods: analytical and technological approaches

Lipids are important components that contribute very significantly to nutritional and technological quality of foods because they are the least stable macro-components in foods, due to high susceptibility to oxidation. When rancidity take place, it makes food unhealthy and unacceptable for consumers. Thus, the presence of antioxidants, naturally present of added to foods, is required to enhance shelf life of foods. Moreover, antioxidant like phenolic compounds play an important role in human health enhancing the functionality of foods. The aim of this PhD project was the study of lipid quality and lipid oxidation in different vegetable foods focusing on analytical and technological aspects in order to figure out the effects of lipid composition and bioactive compounds (phenolic compounds, omega-3 fatty acids and dietary fiber) addition on their shelf life. In addition, bioavailability and antioxidant effects of phenolic compounds in human and animals, respectively, were evaluated after consumption of vegetable foods. The first section of the work was focused on the evaluation of lipid quality impact on technological behaviour of vegetable foods. Because of that, cocoa butter with different melting point were evaluated by chromatographic techniques (GC, TLC) and the sample with the higher melting point showed the presence of fatty acids, triglycerides, 2-monoglycerides and FT-IR profile different from genuine cocoa butter, meaning an adding of foreign fat (lauric-fat) not allowed by the law. Looking at lipid quality of other vegetable foods, an accelerated shelf life test (OXITEST®), was used to evaluate of lipid stability to oxidation in tarallini snacks made up using different lipid matrices (sunflower oil, extravirgin olive oil and a blend of extravirgin olive oil and lard). The results showed a good ability of OXITEST® to discriminate between lipid unsaturation and different cooking times, without any samples fat extraction. In the second section, the role of bioactive compounds on cereal based food shelf life was studied in different bakeries by GC, spectrophotometric methods and capillary electrophoresis. It was examined the relationships between phenolic compounds, added with flour, and lipid oxidation of tarallini and frollini. Both products showed an increase in lipid oxidation during storage and antioxidant effects on lipid oxidation were not as expected. Furthermore, the influence of enrichment in polyunsaturated fatty acids on lipid oxidation of pasta was evaluated. The results proved that LC n-3 PUFA were not significantly implicated in the onset of oxidation in spaghetti stored under daylight and accelerated oxidation in a laboratory heater. The importance of phenolic compounds as antioxidant in humans and rats was also studied, by HPLC/MS in the latter section. For this purpose, apigenin and apigenin glycosides excretion was investigated in six women’s urine in a 24 hours study. After a single dose of steamed artichokes, both aglicone and glucuronide metabolites were recovered in 24 h urine. Moreover, the effect of whole grain durum wheat bread and whole grain Kamut® khorasan bread in rats were evaluated. Both cereals were good sources of antioxidants but Kamut® bread fed animals had a better response to stress than wheat durum fed, especially when a sourdough bread was supplied.

Technological innovation in Emilia-Romagna: knowledge, practice, strategies

The present study aims at assessing the innovation strategies adopted within a regional economic system, the Italian region Emilia-Romagna, as it faced the challenges of a changing international scenario. As the strengthening of the regional innovative capabilities is regarded as a keystone to foster a new phase of economic growth, it is important also to understand how the local industrial, institutional, and academic actors have tackled the problem of innovation in the recent past. In this study we explore the approaches to innovation and the strategies adopted by the main regional actors through three different case studies. Chapter 1 provides a general survey of the innovative performance of the regional industries over the past two decades, as it emerges from statistical data and systematic comparisons at the national and European levels. The chapter also discusses the innovation policies that the regional government set up since 2001 in order to strengthen the collaboration among local economic actors, including universities and research centres. As mechanics is the most important regional industry, chapter 2 analyses the combination of knowledge and practices utilized in the period 1960s-1990s in the design of a particular kind of machinery produced by G.D S.p.A., a world-leader in the market of tobacco packaging machines. G.D is based in Bologna, the region’s capital, and is at the centre of the most important Italian packaging district. In chapter 3 the attention turns to the institutional level, focusing on how the local public administrations, and the local, publicly-owned utility companies have dealt with the creation of new telematic networks on the regional territory during the 1990s and 2000s. Finally, chapter 4 assesses the technology transfer carried out by the main university of the region – the University of Bologna – by focusing on the patenting activities involving its research personnel in the period 1960-2010.

Development of SuperEnsemble Techniques for the Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System

This research activity studied how the uncertainties are concerned and interrelated through the multi-model approach, since it seems to be the bigger challenge of ocean and weather forecasting. Moreover, we tried to reduce model error throughout the superensemble approach. In order to provide this aim, we created different dataset and by means of proper algorithms we obtained the superensamble estimate. We studied the sensitivity of this algorithm in function of its characteristics parameters. Clearly, it is not possible to evaluate a reasonable estimation of the error neglecting the importance of the grid size of ocean model, for the large amount of all the sub grid-phenomena embedded in space discretizations that can be only roughly parametrized instead of an explicit evaluation. For this reason we also developed a high resolution model, in order to calculate for the first time the impact of grid resolution on model error.

Design, synthesis and Chemical-physical characterization of photocatalytic inorganic nanocrystals for technological applications

This work was based on the synthesis and characterization of innovative crystals for biomedical and technological applications. Different types of syntheses were developed in order to obtain crystals with high photocatalytic properties. A hydrothermal synthesis was also processed to correlate the chemical-physical characteristics with synthesis parameters obtaining synthesis of nanoparticles of titanium dioxide with different morphology, size and crystalline phase depending on the variation of the synthesis parameters. Also a synthesis in water at 80 °C temperature and low pressure was developed from which anatase containing a small percentage of brookite nanoparticles were obtained, presenting a high photocatalytic activity. These particles have been used to obtain the microcrystals formed by an inorganic core of hydroxyapatite surface covered by TiO2 nanoparticles. Micrometer material with higher photocatalytic has been produced. The same nanoparticles have been functionalized with resorcinol oxidized in order to increase the photocatalytic efficiency. Photodegradation test results have confirmed this increase. Finally, synthetic nanoparticles with a waterless synthesis using formic acid and octanol, through esterification "in situ" were synthesized. Nanoparticles superficially covered by carboxylic residues able to bind a wide range of molecules to obtain further photocatalytic properties were obtained.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Skin tissue engineering: medical problems and technological solutions.

In questo elaborato si affrontano problematiche cliniche legate ai traumi gravi della cute in cui è necessario intervenire chirurgicamente per ripristinare una situazione normale: si approfondisce lo studio della fisiologia del tessuto, la classificazione dei gradi delle ustioni della pelle, la guarigione delle ferite e la meccanica della cute. Il trapianto di tessuto autologo costituisce la soluzione più efficace e con minori complicazioni. Tuttavia il paziente potrebbe non presentare una superficie di cute disponibile sufficientemente estesa, per cui si ricorre ad altri metodi. In primo luogo, si effettuano degli allotrapianti di tessuto di donatore cadavere prelevati secondo le normative vigenti e conservati attraverso le varie tecniche, il cui sviluppo ha consentito una durata di conservazione maggiore; mentre la glicerolizzazione abbatte al 100% il rischio di trasmissione di patologie e lo sviluppo di microorganismi, la crioconservazione preserva la vitalità del tessuto. La chirurgia utilizzata per queste operazioni si avvale di tecnologie innovative come la Tecnologia a Pressione Negativa. Un'alternativa necessaria per sopperire all'ingente richiesta di tessuto di donatore sono i sostituti cutanei, che presentano un grande potenziale per il futuro. Per eliminare totalmente il rischio di rigetto sarebbe necessario personalizzare il costrutto utilizzando cellule autologhe, ma la ricerca è stata rallentata da minori investimenti da parte dell'industria biomedica, che si è maggiormente focalizzata sulla realizzazione di prodotti utilizzabili da un più ampio raggio di pazienti. Per queste ragioni, l'ingegneria tissutale della cute ha trovato più ampio campo di applicazione nel sistema dei test in vitro. A tale scopo sono stati creati dei protocolli certificati per testare la corrosività, la irritabilità e la vitalità del tessuto cutaneo, quali EpiDerm, EpiSkin e SkinEthic che si avvalgono dell'uso del metodo MMT e della spettrofotometria, che è diventata un supporto fondamentale per le scienze biologiche.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Technological trajectories and environmental policy: the transformation of the automobile

This thesis aims to fill the gap in the literature by examining the relationship between technological trajectories and environmental policy in the automotive industry, focusing on the role of environmental policies in unlocking the industry from fossil fuel path-dependence. It first explores the inducement mechanism that underpins the interaction between environmental policy and green technological advances, investigating under what conditions the European environmental transport policy portfolio and the intrinsic characteristics of assignees' knowledge boost worldwide green patent production. Subsequently, the thesis empirically analyses the dynamics of technological knowledge involved in technological trajectories assessing evolution patterns such as variation, selection and retention, in order to study the impact of policy implementation on technological knowledge related to electric and hybrid vehicle technologies. Finally, the thesis sheds light on the drivers that encourage a shift from incumbent internal combustion engine technologies towards low-emission vehicle technologies. This analysis tests whether tax-inclusive fuel prices and technological proximity between technological fields induce a shift from non-environmental inventions to environmentally friendly inventive activities and if they impact the competition between alternative vehicle technologies. The findings provide insights into the effectiveness of environmental policy in triggering inventive activities related to the development of alternative vehicle technologies. In addition, there is evidence that environmental policy redirects technological efforts towards a sustainable path and impacts the competition between low-emission vehicles.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Ternary lithium based compounds used for technological applications

Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wurden ternäre Li-haltige Halb-Heusler Verbindungen sowie dazu strukturell-verwandte Verbindungen untersucht. Diese Verbindungen sind potentielle Kandidaten für optoelektronische und spintronische Anwendungen.rnEinige der untersuchten Verbindungen sind auch als Elektroden Materialien inrnLi-Batterien geeignet. Neben der Synthese und der Untersuchung der chemischenrnEigenschaften wurden daher insbesondere die physikalischen Eigenschaften näherrnuntersucht. Im speziellen wurden Halb-Heusler Verbindungen wie LiMgZ (Z = P,rnAs, Sb) und LiZn1−xMnxP synthetisiert und charakterisiert. Des Weiteren wurdenrndie Verbindungen LiMnAs, LaOMnAs und LiCuS näher studiert.rnVerbindungen des Typs LiMgZ (Z = P, As, Sb) sind potentielle Anode-Materialienrnin Li-Batterien. Im Rahmen der Arbeit gelang es diese Verbindungen einphasig zurnsynthetisieren. Mit Hilfe der UV-VIS Spektroskopie wurden Bandlücken im Bereichrnvon 0.9 und 2.3 eV bestimmt. 7Li NMR Spektroskopie zeigte eine ausreichende LirnMobilität, die sich mit steigender Temperatur erhöht.rnWeiterhin wurde die Mischkristallserie LiZn1−xMnxP mit x = 0.04, 0.08 und 0.10rnuntersucht. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es aus dem Halbleiter LiZnP durch Dotierungrneinen verdünnten magnetischen Halbleiter herzustellen. Diese Materialien werdenrninsbesondere in der Spintronik benötigt. Optische Messungen zeigten, dass diernDotierung bis x = 0.10 zu einer Reduzierung der Bandlücke von 1.80 eV für LiZnPrnzu 1.18 eV für LiZn0.90Mn0.10P führt. Magnetische Untersuchungen erwiesen paramagnetischesrnCurie-Weiss Verhalten und negative Weiss Konstanten, die auf einernantiferromagnetische Ordnung bei tiefen Temperaturen hindeuten.rnLiMnAs und LaOMnAs sind beides antiferromagnetische Halbleiter, die insbesonderernf¨ur spinelektronische Anwendungen von Bedeutung sind. Die magnetischernStruktur von LiMnAs wurde mit Hilfe der Neutronenbeugung näher untersucht. DiernNeel Temperatur wurde zu 374 K bestimmt. Bei einer Temperatur von T = 768 Krnkommt es zu einer Phasenumwandlung. Die tetragonale Struktur wandelt sich hierrnin einer kubischen Halb-Heusler Phase um. Dichte Funktional Rechnungen sind inrnguter Übereinstimmung mit den experimentellen Werten. Darüberhinaus wurde diernKopplung der magnetischen Momente näher bestimmt.rnrnEine Verbindung der Zusammensetzung LiCuS wurde in der Literatur beschriebenrnals eine Phase, die sich bei der Reaktion von Li mit CuS in Li/CuS Batteriesystemrnbildet. Diese Verbindung ist auch als Ersatz von CdS in Pufferschicht vonrnDünnfilm-Solarzellen von Interesse. Es gelang erstmals diese Verbindung einphasigrnherzustellen. Sie kristallisiert gelb mit der nicht-stöchiometrischen ZusammensetzungrnLi1.1Cu0.9S. Die Kristallstruktur wurde mit Hilfe von NMR, PXRD und Neutronenbeugungrnaufgeklärt. Die Bandlücke wurde aus den optischen Messungenrnvon Dünnschichten bestimmt und beträgt circa 2 eV. Dieser Wert ist in guter Übereinstimmung mit DFT Ergebnissen. Wird der Li-Gehalt erhöht, erhält manrnab circa Li1.7Cu0.3S eine kubische Phase. Sie ist isotyp mit Li2S, die im anti-CaF2 Typ kristallisiert. Diese Verbindung ist ein direkter Halbleiter mit einer Bandlücke von 2.4 eV nach DFT Rechnungen.