Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case-study from COPS

The present study investigates the initiation of precipitating deep convection in an ensemble of convection-resolving mesoscale models. Results of eight different model runs from five non-hydrostatic models are compared for a case of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). An isolated convective cell initiated east of the Black Forest crest in southwest Germany, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Measurements revealed that, due to the absence of synoptic forcing, convection was initiated by local processes related to the orography. In particular, the lifting by low-level convergence in the planetary boundary layer is assumed to be the dominant process on that day. The models used different configurations as well as different initial and boundary conditions. By comparing the different model performance with each other and with measurements, the processes which need to be well represented to initiate convection at the right place and time are discussed. Besides an accurate specification of the thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the results highlight the role of boundary-layer convergence features for quantitative precipitation forecasts in mountainous terrain.

Cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection over a heated mountain

Cloud-resolving numerical simulations of airflow over a diurnally heated mountain ridge are conducted to explore the mechanisms and sensitivities of convective initiation under high pressure conditions. The simulations are based on a well-observed convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) during summer 2007, where an isolated afternoon thunderstorm developed over the Black Forest mountains of central Europe, but they are idealized to facilitate understanding and reduce computational expense. In the conditionally unstable but strongly inhibited flow under consideration, sharp horizontal convergence over the mountain acts to locally weaken the inhibition and moisten the dry midtroposphere through shallow cumulus detrainment. The onset of deep convection occurs not through the deep ascent of a single updraft but rather through a rapid succession of thermals that are vented through the mountain convergence zone into the deepening cloud mass. Emerging thermals rise through the saturated wakes of their predecessors, which diminishes the suppressive effects of entrainment and allows for rapid glaciation above the freezing level as supercooled cloud drops rime onto preexisting ice particles. These effects strongly enhance the midlevel cloud buoyancy and enable rapid ascent to the tropopause. The existence and vigor of the convection is highly sensitive to small changes in background wind speed U0, which controls the strength of the mountain convergence and the ability of midlevel moisture to accumulate above the mountain. Whereas vigorous deep convection develops for U0 = 0 m s−1, deep convection is completely eliminated for U0 = 3 m s−1. Although deep convection is able to develop under intermediate winds (U0 = 1.5 m s−1), its formation is highly sensitive to small-amplitude perturbations in the initial flow.

Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection

The vertical structure of the relationship between water vapor and precipitation is analyzed in 5 yr of radiosonde and precipitation gauge data from the Nauru Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The first vertical principal component of specific humidity is very highly correlated with column water vapor (CWV) and has a maximum of both total and fractional variance captured in the lower free troposphere (around 800 hPa). Moisture profiles conditionally averaged on precipitation show a strong association between rainfall and moisture variability in the free troposphere and little boundary layer variability. A sharp pickup in precipitation occurs near a critical value of CWV, confirming satellite-based studies. A lag–lead analysis suggests it is unlikely that the increase in water vapor is just a result of the falling precipitation. To investigate mechanisms for the CWV–precipitation relationship, entraining plume buoyancy is examined in sonde data and simplified cases. For several different mixing schemes, higher CWV results in progressively greater plume buoyancies, particularly in the upper troposphere, indicating conditions favorable for deep convection. All other things being equal, higher values of lower-tropospheric humidity, via entrainment, play a major role in this buoyancy increase. A small but significant increase in subcloud layer moisture with increasing CWV also contributes to buoyancy. Entrainment coefficients inversely proportional to distance from the surface, associated with mass flux increase through a deep lower-tropospheric layer, appear promising. These yield a relatively even weighting through the lower troposphere for the contribution of environmental water vapor to midtropospheric buoyancy, explaining the association of CWV and buoyancy available for deep convection.

Effect of phonetic complexity on word reading and repetition in deep dyslexia

This investigation moves beyond the traditional studies of word reading to identify how the production complexity of words affects reading accuracy in an individual with deep dyslexia (JO). We examined JO’s ability to read words aloud while manipulating both the production complexity of the words and the semantic context. The classification of words as either phonetically simple or complex was based on the Index of Phonetic Complexity. The semantic context was varied using a semantic blocking paradigm (i.e., semantically blocked and unblocked conditions). In the semantically blocked condition words were grouped by semantic categories (e.g., table, sit, seat, couch,), whereas in the unblocked condition the same words were presented in a random order. JO’s performance on reading aloud was also compared to her performance on a repetition task using the same items. Results revealed a strong interaction between word complexity and semantic blocking for reading aloud but not for repetition. JO produced the greatest number of errors for phonetically complex words in semantically blocked condition. This interaction suggests that semantic processes are constrained by output production processes which are exaggerated when derived from visual rather than auditory targets. This complex relationship between orthographic, semantic, and phonetic processes highlights the need for word recognition models to explicitly account for production processes.

Global trajectory optimisation: can we prune the solution space when considering deep space manoeuvres?

This document contains a report on the work done under the ESA/Ariadna study 06/4101 on the global optimization of space trajectories with multiple gravity assist (GA) and deep space manoeuvres (DSM). The study was performed by a joint team of scientists from the University of Reading and the University of Glasgow.

Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Interactions between shallow and deep convection under a finite departure from convective quasi–equilibrium

The present paper presents a simple theory for the transformation of non-precipitating, shallow convection into precipitating, deep convective clouds. In order to make the pertinent point a much idealized system is considered, consisting only of shallow and deep convection without large–scale forcing. The transformation is described by an explicit coupling between these two types of convection. Shallow convection moistens and cools the atmosphere, whereas deep convection dries and warms, leading to destabilization and stabilization respectively. Consequently, in their own stand–alone modes, shallow convection perpetually grows, whereas deep convection simply damps: the former never reaches equilibrium, and the latter is never spontaneously generated. Coupling the modes together is the only way to reconcile these undesirable separate tendencies so that the convective system as a whole can remain in a stable periodic state under this idealized setting. Such coupling is a key missing element in current global atmospheric models. The energy–cycle description as originally formulated by Arakawa and Schubert, and presented herein is suitable for direct implementation into models using a mass–flux parameterization, and would alleviate the current problems with the representation of these two types of convection in numerical models. The present theory also provides a pertinent framework for analyzing large–eddy simulations and cloud–resolving modelling.

Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake

The efficiency with which the oceans take up heat has a significant influence on the rate of global warming. Warming of the ocean above 700 m over the past few decades has been well documented. However, most of the ocean lies below 700 m. Here we analyse observations of heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. We find that the extratropical North Atlantic as a whole warmed by 1.45±0.5×1022 J between 1955 and 2005, but Lower North Atlantic Deep Water cooled, most likely as an adjustment from an early twentieth-century warm period. In contrast, the heat content of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water exhibited strong decadal variability. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of density-compensated temperature anomalies for long-term heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. These anomalies form in the subpolar gyre and propagate equatorwards. High salinity in the subpolar gyre is a key requirement for this mechanism. In the past 50 years, suitable conditions have occurred only twice: first during the 1960s and again during the past decade. We conclude that heat uptake through density-compensated temperature anomalies will contribute to deep ocean heat uptake in the near term. In the longer term, the importance of this mechanism will be determined by competition between the multiple processes that influence subpolar gyre salinity in a changing climate.

Ultraconserved words point to deep language ancestry across Eurasia

The search for ever deeper relationships among the World’s languages is bedeviled by the fact that most words evolve too rapidly to preserve evidence of their ancestry beyond 5,000 to 9,000 y. On the other hand, quantitative modeling indicates that some “ultraconserved” words exist that might be used to find evidence for deep linguistic relationships beyond that time barrier. Here we use a statistical model, which takes into account the frequency with which words are used in common everyday speech, to predict the existence of a set of such highly conserved words among seven language families of Eurasia postulated to form a linguistic superfamily that evolved from a common ancestor around 15,000 y ago. We derive a dated phylogenetic tree of this proposed superfamily with a time-depth of ∼14,450 y, implying that some frequently used words have been retained in related forms since the end of the last ice age. Words used more than once per 1,000 in everyday speech were 7- to 10-times more likely to show deep ancestry on this tree. Our results suggest a remarkable fidelity in the transmission of some words and give theoretical justification to the search for features of language that might be preserved across wide spans of time and geography.

On nonlinear symmetric stability and the nonlinear saturation of symmetric instability

A nonlinear symmetric stability theorem is derived in the context of the f-plane Boussinesq equations, recovering an earlier result of Xu within a more general framework. The theorem applies to symmetric disturbances to a baroclinic basic flow, the disturbances having arbitrary structure and magnitude. The criteria for nonlinear stability are virtually identical to those for linear stability. As in Xu, the nonlinear stability theorem can be used to obtain rigorous upper bounds on the saturation amplitude of symmetric instabilities. In a simple example, the bounds are found to compare favorably with heuristic parcel-based estimates in both the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic limits.

Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part III: bounds on the energy

Rigorous upper bounds are derived on the saturation amplitude of baroclinic instability in the two-layer model. The bounds apply to the eddy energy and are obtained by appealing to a finite amplitude conservation law for the disturbance pseudoenergy. These bounds are to be distinguished from those derived in Part I of this study, which employed a pseudomomentum conservation law and provided bounds on the eddy potential enstrophy. The bounds apply to conservative (inviscid, unforced) flow, as well as to forced-dissipative flow when the dissipation is proportional to the potential vorticity. Bounds on the eddy energy are worked out for a general class of unstable westerly jets. In the special case of the Phillips model of baroclinic instability, and in the limit of infinitesimal initial eddy amplitude, the bound states that the eddy energy cannot exceed ϵβ2/6F where ϵ = (U − Ucrit)/Ucrit is the relative supercriticality. This bound captures the essential dynamical scalings (i.e., the dependence on ϵ, β, and F) of the saturation amplitudes predicted by weakly nonlinear theory, as well as exhibiting remarkable quantitative agreement with those predictions, and is also consistent with heuristic baroclinic adjustment estimates.

Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part I: the two-layer model

A rigorous bound is derived which limits the finite-amplitude growth of arbitrary nonzonal disturbances to an unstable baroclinic zonal flow within the context of the two-layer model. The bound is valid for conservative (unforced) flow, as well as for forced-dissipative flow that when the dissipation is proportional to the potential vorticity. The method used to derive the bound relies on the existence of a nonlinear Liapunov (normed) stability theorem for subcritical flows, which is a finite-amplitude generalization of the Charney-Stern theorem. For the special case of the Philips model of baroclinic instability, and in the limit of infinitesimal initial nonzonal disturbance amplitude, an improved form of the bound is possible which states that the potential enstrophy of the nonzonal flow cannot exceed ϵβ2, where ϵ = (U − Ucrit)/Ucrit is the (relative) supereriticality. This upper bound turns out to be extremely similar to the maximum predicted by the weakly nonlinear theory. For unforced flow with ϵ < 1, the bound demonstrates that the nonzonal flow cannot contain all of the potential enstrophy in the system; hence in this range of initial supercriticality the total flow must remain, in a certain sense, “close” to a zonal state.