Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

The influence of travel time and size of shopping center towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers in surabaya

Visiting a modern shopping center is becoming vital in our society nowadays. The fast growth of shopping center, transportation system, and modern vehicles has given more choices for consumers in shopping. Although there are many reasons for the consumers in visiting the shopping center, the influence of travel time and size of shopping center are important things to be considered towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers. A survey to the customers of three major shopping centers in Surabaya has been conducted to evaluate the Ellwood’s model and Huff’s model. A new exponent value N of 0.48 and n of 0.50 has been found from the Ellwood’s model, while a coefficient of 0.267 and an add value of 0.245 have been found from the Huff’s model.

The creative sector in New Zealand : mapping and economic role : report to New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

The New Zealand creative sector was responsible for almost 121,000 jobs at the time of the 2006 Census (6.3% of total employment). These are divided between • 35,751 creative specialists – persons employed doing creative work in creative industries • 42,300 support workers - persons providing management and support services in creative industries • 42,792 embedded creative workers – persons engaged in creative work in other types of enterprise The most striking feature of this breakdown is the fact that the largest group of creative workers are employed outside the creative industries, i.e. in other types of businesses. Even within the creative industries, there are fewer people directly engaged in creative work than in providing management and support. Creative sector employees earned incomes of approximately $52,000 per annum at the time of the 2006 Census. This is relatively uniform across all three types of creative worker, and is significantly above the average for all employed persons (of approximately $40,700). Creative employment and incomes were growing strongly over both five year periods between the 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses. However, when we compare creative and general trends, we see two distinct phases in the development of the creative sector: • rapid structural growth over the five years to 2001 (especially led by developments in ICT), with creative employment and incomes increasing rapidly at a time when they were growing modestly across the whole economy; • subsequent consolidation, with growth driven by more by national economic expansion than structural change, and creative employment and incomes moving in parallel with strong economy-wide growth. Other important trends revealed by the data are that • the strongest growth during the decade was in embedded creative workers, especially over the first five years. The weakest growth was in creative specialists, with support workers in creative industries in the middle rank, • by far the strongest growth in creative industries’ employment was in Software & digital content, which trebled in size over the decade Comparing New Zealand with the United Kingdom and Australia, the two southern hemisphere nations have significantly lower proportions of total employment in the creative sector (both in creative industries and embedded employment). New Zealand’s and Australia’s creative shares in 2001 were similar (5.4% each), but in the following five years, our share has expanded (to 5.7%) whereas Australia’s fell slightly (to 5.2%) – in both cases, through changes in creative industries’ employment. The creative industries generated $10.5 billion in total gross output in the March 2006 year. Resulting from this was value added totalling $5.1b, representing 3.3% of New Zealand’s total GDP. Overall, value added in the creative industries represents 49% of industry gross output, which is higher than the average across the whole economy, 45%. This is a reflection of the relatively high labour intensity and high earnings of the creative industries. Industries which have an above-average ratio of value added to gross output are usually labour-intensive, especially when wages and salaries are above average. This is true for Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts, with ratios of 60.4% and 55.2% respectively. However there is significant variation in this ratio between different parts of the creative industries, with some parts (e.g. Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts) generating even higher value added relative to output, and others (e.g. TV & Radio, Publishing and Music & Performing Arts) less, because of high capital intensity and import content. When we take into account the impact of the creative industries’ demand for goods and services from its suppliers and consumption spending from incomes earned, we estimate that there is an addition to economic activity of: • $30.9 billion in gross output, $41.4b in total • $15.1b in value added, $20.3b in total • 158,100 people employed, 234,600 in total The total economic impact of the creative industries is approximately four times their direct output and value added, and three times their direct employment. Their effect on output and value added is roughly in line with the average over all industries, although the effect on employment is significantly lower. This is because of the relatively high labour intensity (and high earnings) of the creative industries, which generate below-average demand from suppliers, but normal levels of demand though expenditure from incomes. Drawing on these numbers and conclusions, we suggest some (slightly speculative) directions for future research. The goal is to better understand the contribution the creative sector makes to productivity growth; in particular, the distinctive contributions from creative firms and embedded creative workers. The ideas for future research can be organised into the several categories: • Understanding the categories of the creative sector– who is doing the business? In other words, examine via more fine grained research (at a firm level perhaps) just what is the creative contribution from the different aspects of the creative sector industries. It may be possible to categorise these in terms of more or less striking innovations. • Investigate the relationship between the characteristics and the performance of the various creative industries/ sectors; • Look more closely at innovation at an industry level e.g. using an index of relative growth of exports, and see if this can be related to intensity of use of creative inputs; • Undertake case studies of the creative sector; • Undertake case studies of the embedded contribution to growth in the firms and industries that employ them, by examining taking several high performing noncreative industries (in the same way as proposed for the creative sector). • Look at the aggregates – drawing on the broad picture of the extent of the numbers of creative workers embedded within the different industries, consider the extent to which these might explain aspects of the industries’ varied performance in terms of exports, growth and so on. • This might be able to extended to examine issues like the type of creative workers that are most effective when embedded, or test the hypothesis that each industry has its own particular requirements for embedded creative workers that overwhelms any generic contributions from say design, or IT.

Eyelid pressure on the cornea

The eyelids play an important role in lubricating and protecting the surface of the eye. Each blink serves to spread fresh tears, remove debris and replenish the smooth optical surface of the eye. Yet little is known about how the eyelids contact the ocular surface and what pressure distribution exists between the eyelids and cornea. As the principal refractive component of the eye, the cornea is a major element of the eye’s optics. The optical properties of the cornea are known to be susceptible to the pressure exerted by the eyelids. Abnormal eyelids, due to disease, have altered pressure on the ocular surface due to changes in the shape, thickness or position of the eyelids. Normal eyelids also cause corneal distortions that are most often noticed when they are resting closer to the corneal centre (for example during reading). There were many reports of monocular diplopia after reading due to corneal distortion, but prior to videokeratoscopes these localised changes could not be measured. This thesis has measured the influence of eyelid pressure on the cornea after short-term near tasks and techniques were developed to quantify eyelid pressure and its distribution. The profile of the wave-like eyelid-induced corneal changes and the refractive effects of these distortions were investigated. Corneal topography changes due to both the upper and lower eyelids were measured for four tasks involving two angles of vertical downward gaze (20° and 40°) and two near work tasks (reading and steady fixation). After examining the depth and shape of the corneal changes, conclusions were reached regarding the magnitude and distribution of upper and lower eyelid pressure for these task conditions. The degree of downward gaze appears to alter the upper eyelid pressure on the cornea, with deeper changes occurring after greater angles of downward gaze. Although the lower eyelid was further from the corneal centre in large angles of downward gaze, its effect on the cornea was greater than that of the upper eyelid. Eyelid tilt, curvature, and position were found to be influential in the magnitude of eyelid-induced corneal changes. Refractively these corneal changes are clinically and optically significant with mean spherical and astigmatic changes of about 0.25 D after only 15 minutes of downward gaze (40° reading and steady fixation conditions). Due to the magnitude of these changes, eyelid pressure in downward gaze offers a possible explanation for some of the day-to-day variation observed in refraction. Considering the magnitude of these changes and previous work on their regression, it is recommended that sustained tasks performed in downward gaze should be avoided for at least 30 minutes before corneal and refractive assessment requiring high accuracy. Novel procedures were developed to use a thin (0.17 mm) tactile piezoresistive pressure sensor mounted on a rigid contact lens to measure eyelid pressure. A hydrostatic calibration system was constructed to convert raw digital output of the sensors to actual pressure units. Conditioning the sensor prior to use regulated the measurement response and sensor output was found to stabilise about 10 seconds after loading. The influences of various external factors on sensor output were studied. While the sensor output drifted slightly over several hours, it was not significant over the measurement time of 30 seconds used for eyelid pressure, as long as the length of the calibration and measurement recordings were matched. The error associated with calibrating at room temperature but measuring at ocular surface temperature led to a very small overestimation of pressure. To optimally position the sensor-contact lens combination under the eyelid margin, an in vivo measurement apparatus was constructed. Using this system, eyelid pressure increases were observed when the upper eyelid was placed on the sensor and a significant increase was apparent when the eyelid pressure was increased by pulling the upper eyelid tighter against the eye. For a group of young adult subjects, upper eyelid pressure was measured using this piezoresistive sensor system. Three models of contact between the eyelid and ocular surface were used to calibrate the pressure readings. The first model assumed contact between the eyelid and pressure sensor over more than the pressure cell width of 1.14 mm. Using thin pressure sensitive carbon paper placed under the eyelid, a contact imprint was measured and this width used for the second model of contact. Lastly as Marx’s line has been implicated as the region of contact with the ocular surface, its width was measured and used as the region of contact for the third model. The mean eyelid pressures calculated using these three models for the group of young subjects were 3.8 ± 0.7 mmHg (whole cell), 8.0 ± 3.4 mmHg (imprint width) and 55 ± 26 mmHg (Marx’s line). The carbon imprints using Pressurex-micro confirmed previous suggestions that a band of the eyelid margin has primary contact with the ocular surface and provided the best estimate of the contact region and hence eyelid pressure. Although it is difficult to directly compare the results with previous eyelid pressure measurement attempts, the eyelid pressure calculated using this model was slightly higher than previous manometer measurements but showed good agreement with the eyelid force estimated using an eyelid tensiometer. The work described in this thesis has shown that the eyelids have a significant influence on corneal shape, even after short-term tasks (15 minutes). Instrumentation was developed using piezoresistive sensors to measure eyelid pressure. Measurements for the upper eyelid combined with estimates of the contact region between the cornea and the eyelid enabled quantification of the upper eyelid pressure for a group of young adult subjects. These techniques will allow further investigation of the interaction between the eyelids and the surface of the eye.

Variation of the Stiles-Crawford effect with accommodation and myopia

Background: Mechanical forces either due to accommodation or myopia may stretch the retina and/or cause shear between the retina and choroid. This can be investigated by making use of the Stiles-Crawford effect (SCE), which is the phenomenon of light changing in apparent brightness as it enters through different positions in the pupil. The SCE can be measured by psychophysical and objective techniques, with the SCE parameters being directionality (rate of change across the pupil), and orientation (the location of peak sensitivity in the pupil). Aims: 1. To study the changes in foveal SCE with accommodation in emmetropes and myopes using a subjective (psychophysical) technique. 2. To develop and evaluate a quick objective technique of measuring the SCE using the multifocal electroretinogram. Methods: The SCE was measured in 6 young emmetropes and 6 young myopes for up to 8 D accommodation stimulus with a psychophysical technique and its variants. An objective technique using the multifocal electroretinogram was developed and evaluated with 5 emmetropes. Results: Using the psychophysical technique, the SCE directionality increased by similar amounts in both emmetropes and myopes as accommodation increased, with an increase of 15-20% with 6 D of accommodation. However, there were no significant orientation changes. Additional measurements showed that most of the change in the directionality was probably an artefact of optical factors such as higher-order aberrations and accommodative lag rather a true effect of accommodation. The multifocal technique demonstrated the presence of the SCE, but results were noisy and too variable to detect any changes in SCE directionality or orientation with accommodation. Conclusion: There is little true change in the SCE with accommodation responses up to 6 D in either emmetropes or myopes, although it is possible that substantial changes might occur at very high accommodation levels. The objective technique using the multifocal electroretinogram was quicker and less demanding for the subjects than the psychophysical technique, but as implemented in this thesis, it is not a reliable method of measuring the SCE.

Robust real time multi-layer foreground segmentation

Many surveillance applications (object tracking, abandoned object detection) rely on detecting changes in a scene. Foreground segmentation is an effective way to extract the foreground from the scene, but these techniques cannot discriminate between objects that have temporarily stopped and those that are moving. We propose a series of modifications to an existing foreground segmentation system\cite{Butler2003} so that the foreground is further segmented into two or more layers. This yields an active layer of objects currently in motion and a passive layer of objects that have temporarily ceased motion which can itself be decomposed into multiple static layers. We also propose a variable threshold to cope with variable illumination, a feedback mechanism that allows an external process (i.e. surveillance system) to alter the motion detectors state, and a lighting compensation process and a shadow detector to reduce errors caused by lighting inconsistencies. The technique is demonstrated using outdoor surveillance footage, and is shown to be able to effectively deal with real world lighting conditions and overlapping objects.

Scene invariant crowd counting for real-time surveillance

Automated crowd counting allows excessive crowding to be detected immediately, without the need for constant human surveillance. Current crowd counting systems are location specific, and for these systems to function properly they must be trained on a large amount of data specific to the target location. As such, configuring multiple systems to use is a tedious and time consuming exercise. We propose a scene invariant crowd counting system which can easily be deployed at a different location to where it was trained. This is achieved using a global scaling factor to relate crowd sizes from one scene to another. We demonstrate that a crowd counting system trained at one viewpoint can achieve a correct classification rate of 90% at a different viewpoint.

Can venous occlusion plethysmography be used to measure high rates of arterial inflow?

To investigate whether venous occlusion plethysmography (VOP) may be used to measure high rates of arterial inflow associated with exercise, venous occlusions were performed at rest, and following dynamic handgrip exercise at 15, 30, 45, and 60 % of maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) in seven healthy males. The effect of including more than one cardiac cycle in the calculation of blood flow was assessed by comparing the cumulative blood flow over one, two, three, or four cardiac cycles. The inclusion of more than one cardiac cycle at 30 and 60 % MVC, and more than two cardiac cycles at 15 and 45 % MVC resulted in a lower blood flow compared to using only the first cardiac cycle (P < 0.05). Despite the small time interval over which arterial inflow was measured (~1 second), this did not affect the reproducibility of the technique. Reproducibility (coefficient of variation for arterial inflow over three trials) tended to be poorer at the higher workloads, although this was not significant (12.7 ± 6.6 %, 16.2 ± 7.3 %, and 22.9 ± 9.9 % for the 15, 30, and 45 % MVC workloads; P=0.102). There was also a tendency for greater reproducibility with the inclusion of more cardiac cycles at the highest workload, but this did not reach significance (P=0.070). In conclusion, when calculated over the first cardiac cycle only during venous occlusion, high rates of FBF can be measured using VOP, and this can be achieved without a significant decrease in the reproducibility of the measurement.

Latitude variation in pancreatic cancer mortality in Australia

Objectives: Ecological studies support the hypothesis that there is an association between vitamin D and pancreatic cancer (PaCa) mortality, but observational studies are somewhat conflicting. We sought to contribute further data to this issue by analyzing the differences in PaCa mortality across the eastern states of Australia and investigating if there is a role of vitamin D-effective ultraviolet radiation (DUVR), which is related to latitude. ---------- Methods: Mortality data from 1968 to 2005 were sourced from the Australian General Record of Incidence and Mortality books. Negative binomial models were fitted to calculate the association between state and PaCa mortality. Clear sky monthly DUVR in each capital city was also modeled. ---------- Results: Mortality from PaCa was 10% higher in southern states than in Queensland, with those in Victoria recording the highest mortality risk (relative risk, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.17). We found a highly significant association between DUVR and PaCa mortality, with an estimated 1.5% decrease in the risk per 10-kJ/m2 increase in yearly DUVR. ---------- Conclusions: These data show an association between latitude, DUVR, and PaCa mortality. Although this study cannot be used to infer causality, it supports the need for further investigations of a possible role of vitamin D in PaCa etiology.

Approaches for calculation of holding costs in the context of greenfield residential development

There are increasing indications that the contribution of holding costs and its impact on housing affordability is very significant. Their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from considering the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them recently. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require further investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. They are not as visible as more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. This paper seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. It extends research in this area clarifying the extent to which holding costs impact housing affordability. Geographical diversity indicated by the considerable variation between various planning instruments and the length of regulatory assessment periods suggests further research should adopt a case study approach in order to test the relevance of theoretical modelling conducted.

Youth identities : time, space and social exclusion : exploring youth policy and practice in Sheffield, 1999-2003

The type and quality of youth identities ascribed to young people living in residual housing areas present opportunities for action as well as structural constraints. In this book three ethnographies, based on a youth work practitioner's observations, interviews and participation in local networks, identify young people's resistant identities. Through an analysis of social exclusion, youth policies and interviews with young people, youth workers and their managers, the book outlines a contingent network of relationships that hinder informal learning. Globalisation, individualisation, welfare/education reform and the rise of cultural social movements act upon youth identities and steer youth policies to subordinate the notion of informal group learning. Drawing on Castells' and Touraine's sociological models of identity, the book explores youth as a category of time and residual housing areas as a category of space, as they pertain to local dynamics of social exclusion.

Spontaneous pacing during overground hill running

Purpose: To investigate speed regulation during overground running on undulating terrain. Methods: Following an initial laboratory session to calculate physiological thresholds, eight experienced runners completed a spontaneously paced time trial over 3 laps of an outdoor course involving uphill, downhill and level sections. A portable gas analyser, GPS receiver and activity monitor were used to collect physiological, speed and stride frequency data. Results: Participants ran 23% slower on uphills and 13.8% faster on downhills compared with level sections. Speeds on level sections were significantly different for 78.4 ± 7.0 seconds following an uphill and 23.6 ± 2.2 seconds following a downhill. Speed changes were primarily regulated by stride length which was 20.5% shorter uphill and 16.2% longer downhill, while stride frequency was relatively stable. Oxygen consumption averaged 100.4% of runner’s individual ventilatory thresholds on uphills, 78.9% on downhills and 89.3% on level sections. 89% of group level speed was predicted using a modified gradient factor. Individuals adopted distinct pacing strategies, both across laps and as a function of gradient. Conclusions: Speed was best predicted using a weighted factor to account for prior and current gradients. Oxygen consumption (VO2) limited runner’s speeds only on uphill sections, and was maintained in line with individual ventilatory thresholds. Running speed showed larger individual variation on downhill sections, while speed on the level was systematically influenced by the preceding gradient. Runners who varied their pace more as a function of gradient showed a more consistent level of oxygen consumption. These results suggest that optimising time on the level sections after hills offers the greatest potential to minimise overall time when running over undulating terrain.

Quality issues for the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP)

Purpose: This two-part research project was undertaken as part of the planning process by Queensland Health (QH), Cancer Screening Services Unit (CSSU), Queensland Bowel Cancer Screening Program (QBCSP), in partnership with the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP), to prepare for the implementation of the NBCSP in public sector colonoscopy services in QLD in late 2006. There was no prior information available on the quality of colonoscopy services in Queensland (QLD) and no prior studies that assessed the quality of colonoscopy training in Australia. Furthermore, the NBCSP was introduced without extra funding for colonoscopy service improvement or provision for increases in colonoscopic capacity resulting from the introduction of the NBCSP. The main purpose of the research was to record baseline data on colonoscopy referral and practice in QLD and current training in colonoscopy Australia-wide. It was undertaken from a quality improvement perspective. Implementation of the NBCSP requires that all aspects of the screening pathway, in particular colonoscopy services for the assessment of positive Faecal Occult Blood Tests (FOBTs), will be effective, efficient, equitable and evidence-based. This study examined two important aspects of the continuous quality improvement framework for the NBCSP as they relate to colonoscopy services: (1) evidence-based practice, and (2) quality of colonoscopy training. The Principal Investigator was employed as Senior Project Officer (Training) in the QBCSP during the conduct of this research project. Recommendations from this research have been used to inform the development and implementation of quality improvement initiatives for provision of colonoscopy in the NBCSP, its QLD counterpart the QBCSP and colonoscopy services in QLD, in general. Methods – Part 1 Chart audit of evidence-based practice: The research was undertaken in two parts from 2005-2007. The first part of this research comprised a retrospective chart audit of 1484 colonoscopy records (some 13% of all colonoscopies conducted in public sector facilities in the year 2005) in three QLD colonoscopy services. Whilst some 70% of colonoscopies are currently conducted in the private sector, only public sector colonoscopy facilities provided colonoscopies under the NBCSP. The aim of this study was to compare colonoscopy referral and practice with explicit criteria derived from the National Health & Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (1999) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Prevention, Early Detection and Management of Colorectal Cancer, and describe the nature of variance with the guidelines. Symptomatic presentations were the most common indication for colonoscopy (60.9%). These comprised per rectal bleeding (31.0%), change of bowel habit (22.1%), abdominal pain (19.6%), iron deficiency anaemia (16.2%), inflammatory bowel disease (8.9%) and other symptoms (11.4%). Surveillance and follow-up colonoscopies accounted for approximately one-third of the remaining colonoscopy workload across sites. Gastroenterologists (GEs) performed relatively more colonoscopies per annum (59.9%) compared to general surgeons (GS) (24.1%), colorectal surgeons (CRS) (9.4%) and general physicians (GPs) (6.5%). Guideline compliance varied with the designation of the colonoscopist. Compliance was lower for CRS (62.9%) compared to GPs (76.0%), GEs (75.0%), GSs (70.9%, p<0.05). Compliance with guideline recommendations for colonoscopic surveillance for family history of colorectal cancer (23.9%), polyps (37.0%) and a past history of bowel cancer (42.7%), was by comparison significantly lower than for symptomatic presentations (94.4%), (p<0.001). Variation with guideline recommendations occurred more frequently for polyp surveillance (earlier than guidelines recommend, 47.9%) and follow-up for past history of bowel cancer (later than recommended, 61.7%, p<0.001). Bowel cancer cases detected at colonoscopy comprised 3.6% of all audited colonoscopies. Incomplete colonoscopies occurred in 4.3% of audited colonoscopies and were more common among women (76.6%). For all colonoscopies audited, the rate of incomplete colonoscopies for GEs was 1.6% (CI 0.9-2.6), GPs 2.0% (CI 0.6-7.2), GS 7.0% (CI 4.8-10.1) and CRS 16.4% (CI 11.2-23.5). 18.6% (n=55) of patients with a documented family history of bowel cancer had colonoscopy performed against guidelines recommendations (for general (category 1) population risk, for reasons of patient request or family history of polyps, rather than for high risk status for colorectal cancer). In general, family history was inadequately documented and subsequently applied to colonoscopy referral and practice. Methods - Part 2 Surveys of quality of colonoscopy training: The second part of the research consisted of Australia-wide anonymous, self-completed surveys of colonoscopy trainers and their trainees to ascertain their opinions on the current apprenticeship model of colonoscopy in Australia and to identify any training needs. Overall, 127 surveys were received from colonoscopy trainers (estimated response rate 30.2%). Approximately 50% of trainers agreed and 27% disagreed that current numbers of training places were adequate to maintain a skilled colonoscopy workforce in preparation for the NBCSP. Approximately 70% of trainers also supported UK-style colonoscopy training within dedicated accredited training centres using a variety of training approaches including simulation. A collaborative approach with the private sector was seen as beneficial by 65% of trainers. Non-gastroenterologists (non-GEs) were more likely than GEs to be of the opinion that simulators are beneficial for colonoscopy training (χ2-test = 5.55, P = 0.026). Approximately 60% of trainers considered that the current requirements for recognition of training in colonoscopy could be insufficient for trainees to gain competence and 80% of those indicated that ≥ 200 colonoscopies were needed. GEs (73.4%) were more likely than non-GEs (36.2%) to be of the opinion that the Conjoint Committee standard is insufficient to gain competence in colonoscopy (χ2-test = 16.97, P = 0.0001). The majority of trainers did not support training either nurses (73%) or GPs in colonoscopy (71%). Only 81 (estimated response rate 17.9%) surveys were received from GS trainees (72.1%), GE trainees (26.3%) and GP trainees (1.2%). The majority were males (75.9%), with a median age 32 years and who had trained in New South Wales (41.0%) or Victoria (30%). Overall, two-thirds (60.8%) of trainees indicated that they deemed the Conjoint Committee standard sufficient to gain competency in colonoscopy. Between specialties, 75.4% of GS trainees indicated that the Conjoint Committee standard for recognition of colonoscopy was sufficient to gain competence in colonoscopy compared to only 38.5% of GE trainees. Measures of competency assessed and recorded by trainees in logbooks centred mainly on caecal intubation (94.7-100%), complications (78.9-100%) and withdrawal time (51-76.2%). Trainees described limited access to colonoscopy training lists due to the time inefficiency of the apprenticeship model and perceived monopolisation of these by GEs and their trainees. Improvements to the current training model suggested by trainees included: more use of simulation, training tools, a United Kingdom (UK)-style training course, concentration on quality indicators, increased access to training lists, accreditation of trainers and interdisciplinary colonoscopy training. Implications for the NBCSP/QBCSP: The introduction of the NBCSP/QBCSP necessitates higher quality colonoscopy services if it is to achieve its ultimate goal of decreasing the incidence of morbidity and mortality associated with bowel cancer in Australia. This will be achieved under a new paradigm for colonoscopy training and implementation of evidence-based practice across the screening pathway and specifically targeting areas highlighted in this thesis. Recommendations for improvement of NBCSP/QBCSP effectiveness and efficiency include the following: 1. Implementation of NBCSP and QBCSP health promotion activities that target men, in particular, to increase FOBT screening uptake. 2. Improved colonoscopy training for trainees and refresher courses or retraining for existing proceduralists to improve completion rates (especially for female NBCSP/QBCSP participants), and polyp and adenoma detection and removal, including newer techniques to detect flat and depressed lesions. 3. Introduction of colonoscopy training initiatives for trainees that are aligned with NBCSP/QBCSP colonoscopy quality indicators, including measurement of training outcomes using objective quality indicators such as caecal intubation, withdrawal time, and adenoma detection rate. 4. Introduction of standardised, interdisciplinary colonoscopy training to reduce apparent differences between specialties with regard to compliance with guideline recommendations, completion rates, and quality of polypectomy. 5. Improved quality of colonoscopy training by adoption of a UK-style training program with centres of excellence, incorporating newer, more objective assessment methods, use of a variety of training tools such as simulation and rotations of trainees between metropolitan, rural, and public and private sector training facilities. 6. Incorporation of NHMRC guidelines into colonoscopy information systems to improve documentation, provide guideline recommendations at the point of care, use of gastroenterology nurse coordinators to facilitate compliance with guidelines and provision of guideline-based colonoscopy referral letters for GPs. 7. Provision of information and education about the NBCSP/QBCSP, bowel cancer risk factors, including family history and polyp surveillance guidelines, for participants, GPs and proceduralists. 8. Improved referral of NBCSP/QBCSP participants found to have a high-risk family history of bowel cancer to appropriate genetics services.

Who's talking? Communication and the casual/part-time nurse : a literature review

The rapidly evolving nursing working environment has seen the increased use of flexible non standard employment, including part-time, casual and itinerate workers. Evidence suggests that the nursing workforce has been at the forefront of the flexibility push which has seen the appearance of a dual workforce and marginalization of part- time and casual workers by their full-time peers and managers. The resulting fragmentation has meant that effective communication management has become difficult. Additionally, it is likely that poor organisational communication exacerbated by the increased use of non standard staff, is a factor underlying current discontent in the nursing industry and may impact on both recruitment and retention problems as well as patient outcomes. This literature review explores the relationship between the increasing casualisation of the nursing workforce and, among other things, the communication practices of nurses within healthcare organisations.

One-time-password-authenticated key exchange

To reduce the damage of phishing and spyware attacks, banks, governments, and other security-sensitive industries are deploying one-time password systems, where users have many passwords and use each password only once. If a single password is compromised, it can be only be used to impersonate the user once, limiting the damage caused. However, existing practical approaches to one-time passwords have been susceptible to sophisticated phishing attacks. ---------- We give a formal security treatment of this important practical problem. We consider the use of one-time passwords in the context of password-authenticated key exchange (PAKE), which allows for mutual authentication, session key agreement, and resistance to phishing attacks. We describe a security model for the use of one-time passwords, explicitly considering the compromise of past (and future) one-time passwords, and show a general technique for building a secure one-time-PAKE protocol from any secure PAKE protocol. Our techniques also allow for the secure use of pseudorandomly generated and time-dependent passwords.