Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have been emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rainfall amounts. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e. RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance, but also for use in hydrological modeling. The results show that the RCs considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Even assuming higher uncertainties for RCs as obtained from the laboratory up to a certain level is observed practical.

Object-Oriented Modeling Simulation and Control of Activated Sludge Process

Object-oriented modeling is spreading in current simulation of wastewater treatments plants through the use of the individual components of the process and its relations to define the underlying dynamic equations. In this paper, we describe the use of the free-software OpenModelica simulation environment for the object-oriented modeling of an activated sludge process under feedback control. The performance of the controlled system was analyzed both under normal conditions and in the presence of disturbances. The object-oriented described approach represents a valuable tool in teaching provides a practical insight in wastewater process control field.

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Stepped Crystal Surfaces

A primary goal of this dissertation is to understand the links between mathematical models that describe crystal surfaces at three fundamental length scales: The scale of individual atoms, the scale of collections of atoms forming crystal defects, and macroscopic scale. Characterizing connections between different classes of models is a critical task for gaining insight into the physics they describe, a long-standing objective in applied analysis, and also highly relevant in engineering applications. The key concept I use in each problem addressed in this thesis is coarse graining, which is a strategy for connecting fine representations or models with coarser representations. Often this idea is invoked to reduce a large discrete system to an appropriate continuum description, e.g. individual particles are represented by a continuous density. While there is no general theory of coarse graining, one closely related mathematical approach is asymptotic analysis, i.e. the description of limiting behavior as some parameter becomes very large or very small. In the case of crystalline solids, it is natural to consider cases where the number of particles is large or where the lattice spacing is small. Limits such as these often make explicit the nature of links between models capturing different scales, and, once established, provide a means of improving our understanding, or the models themselves. Finding appropriate variables whose limits illustrate the important connections between models is no easy task, however. This is one area where computer simulation is extremely helpful, as it allows us to see the results of complex dynamics and gather clues regarding the roles of different physical quantities. On the other hand, connections between models enable the development of novel multiscale computational schemes, so understanding can assist computation and vice versa. Some of these ideas are demonstrated in this thesis. The important outcomes of this thesis include: (1) a systematic derivation of the step-flow model of Burton, Cabrera, and Frank, with corrections, from an atomistic solid-on-solid-type models in 1+1 dimensions; (2) the inclusion of an atomistically motivated transport mechanism in an island dynamics model allowing for a more detailed account of mound evolution; and (3) the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum scheme for simulating the relaxation of a faceted crystal mound. Central to all of these modeling and simulation efforts is the presence of steps composed of individual layers of atoms on vicinal crystal surfaces. Consequently, a recurring theme in this research is the observation that mesoscale defects play a crucial role in crystal morphological evolution.

Collaborative Networked Organizations as System of Systems: A Model-Based Engineering Approach

Part 6: Engineering and Implementation of Collaborative Networks

Quantifying the Resilience of an Urban Traffic-Electric Power Coupled System

Transportation system resilience has been the subject of several recent studies. To assess the resilience of a transportation network, however, it is essential to model its interactions with and reliance on other lifelines. In this work, a bi-level, mixed-integer, stochastic program is presented for quantifying the resilience of a coupled traffic-power network under a host of potential natural or anthropogenic hazard-impact scenarios. A two-layer network representation is employed that includes details of both systems. Interdependencies between the urban traffic and electric power distribution systems are captured through linking variables and logical constraints. The modeling approach was applied on a case study developed on a portion of the signalized traffic-power distribution system in southern Minneapolis. The results of the case study show the importance of explicitly considering interdependencies between critical infrastructures in transportation resilience estimation. The results also provide insights on lifeline performance from an alternative power perspective.

Modeling and Mapping Agroforestry Aboveground Biomass in the Brazilian Amazon Using Airborne Lidar Data.

Agroforestry has large potential for carbon (C) sequestration while providing many economical, social, and ecological benefits via its diversified products. Airborne lidar is considered as the most accurate technology for mapping aboveground biomass (AGB) over landscape levels. However, little research in the past has been done to study AGB of agroforestry systems using airborne lidar data. Focusing on an agroforestry system in the Brazilian Amazon, this study first predicted plot-level AGB using fixed-effects regression models that assumed the regression coefficients to be constants. The model prediction errors were then analyzed from the perspectives of tree DBH (diameter at breast height)?height relationships and plot-level wood density, which suggested the need for stratifying agroforestry fields to improve plot-level AGB modeling. We separated teak plantations from other agroforestry types and predicted AGB using mixed-effects models that can incorporate the variation of AGB-height relationship across agroforestry types. We found that, at the plot scale, mixed-effects models led to better model prediction performance (based on leave-one-out cross-validation) than the fixed-effects models, with the coefficient of determination (R2) increasing from 0.38 to 0.64. At the landscape level, the difference between AGB densities from the two types of models was ~10% on average and up to ~30% at the pixel level. This study suggested the importance of stratification based on tree AGB allometry and the utility of mixed-effects models in modeling and mapping AGB of agroforestry systems.

Photovoltaic power forecast modeling with artificial neural networks

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Eletrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

A discrete-time queueing system with feedback and optional service

Queueing systems constitute a central tool in modeling and performance analysis. These types of systems are in our everyday life activities, and the theory of queueing systems was developed to provide models for forecasting behaviors of systems subject to random demand. The practical and useful applications of the discrete-time queues make the researchers to con- tinue making an e ort in analyzing this type of models. Thus the present contribution relates to a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue in which some messages may need a second service time in addition to the rst essential service. In day-to-day life, there are numerous examples of queueing situations in general, for example, in manufacturing processes, telecommunication, home automation, etc, but in this paper a particular application is the use of video surveil- lance with intrusion recognition where all the arriving messages require the main service and only some may require the subsidiary service provided by the server with di erent types of strategies. We carry out a thorough study of the model, deriving analytical results for the stationary distribution. The generating functions of the number of messages in the queue and in the system are obtained. The generating functions of the busy period as well as the sojourn times of a message in the server, the queue and the system are also provided.

Spatio-temporal modeling of data imputation for daily rainfall series in homogeneous zones.

Spatio-temporal modelling is an area of increasing importance in which models and methods have often been developed to deal with specific applications. In this study, a spatio-temporal model was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Rainfall records from several weather stations, obtained from the Agritempo system for two climatic homogeneous zones, were used. Rainfall values obtained for two fixed dates (January 1 and May 1, 2012) using the spatio-temporal model were compared with the geostatisticals techniques of ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging with altitude as auxiliary variable. The spatio-temporal model was more than 17% better at producing estimates of daily precipitation compared to kriging and cokriging in the first zone and more than 18% in the second zone. The spatio-temporal model proved to be a versatile technique, adapting to different seasons and dates.

DIFFUSE-INTERFACE FIELD APPROACH TO MODELING SELF-ASSEMBLY OF HETEROGENEOUS COLLOIDAL SYSTEMS AND RELATED DIPOLE-DIPOLE INTERACTION PHENOMENA

Colloid self-assembly under external control is a new route to fabrication of advanced materials with novel microstructures and appealing functionalities. The kinetic processes of colloidal self-assembly have attracted great interests also because they are similar to many atomic level kinetic processes of materials. In the past decades, rapid technological progresses have been achieved on producing shape-anisotropic, patchy, core-shell structured particles and particles with electric/magnetic charges/dipoles, which greatly enriched the self-assembled structures. Multi-phase carrier liquids offer new route to controlling colloidal self-assembly. Therefore, heterogeneity is the essential characteristics of colloid system, while so far there still lacks a model that is able to efficiently incorporate these possible heterogeneities. This thesis is mainly devoted to development of a model and computational study on the complex colloid system through a diffuse-interface field approach (DIFA), recently developed by Wang et al. This meso-scale model is able to describe arbitrary particle shape and arbitrary charge/dipole distribution on the surface or body of particles. Within the framework of DIFA, a Gibbs-Duhem-type formula is introduced to treat Laplace pressure in multi-liquid-phase colloidal system and it obeys Young-Laplace equation. The model is thus capable to quantitatively study important capillarity related phenomena. Extensive computer simulations are performed to study the fundamental behavior of heterogeneous colloidal system. The role of Laplace pressure is revealed in determining the mechanical equilibrium of shape-anisotropic particles at fluid interfaces. In particular, it is found that the Laplace pressure plays a critical role in maintaining the stability of capillary bridges between close particles, which sheds light on a novel route to in situ firming compact but fragile colloidal microstructures via capillary bridges. Simulation results also show that competition between like-charge repulsion, dipole-dipole interaction and Brownian motion dictates the degree of aggregation of heterogeneously charged particles. Assembly and alignment of particles with magnetic dipoles under external field is studied. Finally, extended studies on the role of dipole-dipole interaction are performed for ferromagnetic and ferroelectric domain phenomena. The results reveal that the internal field generated by dipoles competes with external field to determine the dipole-domain evolution in ferroic materials.

Advanced Methodologies in Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling of Managed Lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Methods for Modeling and Analyzing Concurrent Software

Concurrent software executes multiple threads or processes to achieve high performance. However, concurrency results in a huge number of different system behaviors that are difficult to test and verify. The aim of this dissertation is to develop new methods and tools for modeling and analyzing concurrent software systems at design and code levels. This dissertation consists of several related results. First, a formal model of Mondex, an electronic purse system, is built using Petri nets from user requirements, which is formally verified using model checking. Second, Petri nets models are automatically mined from the event traces generated from scientific workflows. Third, partial order models are automatically extracted from some instrumented concurrent program execution, and potential atomicity violation bugs are automatically verified based on the partial order models using model checking. Our formal specification and verification of Mondex have contributed to the world wide effort in developing a verified software repository. Our method to mine Petri net models automatically from provenance offers a new approach to build scientific workflows. Our dynamic prediction tool, named McPatom, can predict several known bugs in real world systems including one that evades several other existing tools. McPatom is efficient and scalable as it takes advantage of the nature of atomicity violations and considers only a pair of threads and accesses to a single shared variable at one time. However, predictive tools need to consider the tradeoffs between precision and coverage. Based on McPatom, this dissertation presents two methods for improving the coverage and precision of atomicity violation predictions: 1) a post-prediction analysis method to increase coverage while ensuring precision; 2) a follow-up replaying method to further increase coverage. Both methods are implemented in a completely automatic tool.