Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentalsand asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomicvariables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

Relative and absolute reliability of the clinical version of the Narrow Path Walking Test (NPWT) under single and dual task conditions.

Decline in gait stability has been associated with increased fall risk in older adults. Reliable and clinically feasible methods of gait instability assessment are needed. This study evaluated the relative and absolute reliability and concurrent validity of the testing procedure of the clinical version of the Narrow Path Walking Test (NPWT) under single task (ST) and dual task (DT) conditions. Thirty independent community-dwelling older adults (65-87 years) were tested twice. Participants were instructed to walk within the 6-m narrow path without stepping out. Trial time, number of steps, trial velocity, number of step errors, and number of cognitive task errors were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated as indices of agreement, and a graphic approach called "mountain plot" was applied to help interpret the direction and magnitude of disagreements between testing procedures. Smallest detectable change and smallest real difference (SRD) were computed to determine clinically relevant improvement at group and individual levels, respectively. Concurrent validity was assessed using Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment Tool (POMA) and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Test-retest agreement (ICC1,2) varied from 0.77 to 0.92 in ST and from 0.78 to 0.92 in DT conditions, with no apparent systematic differences between testing procedures demonstrated by the mountain plot graphs. Smallest detectable change and smallest real change were small for motor task performance and larger for cognitive errors. Significant correlations were observed for trial velocity and trial time with POMA and SPPB. The present results indicate that the NPWT testing procedure is highly reliable and reproducible.

Variable Kernel estimates: On the impossibility of tuning the parameters

For the standard kernel density estimate, it is known that one can tune the bandwidth such that the expected L1 error is within a constant factor of the optimal L1 error (obtained when one is allowed to choose the bandwidth with knowledge of the density). In this paper, we pose the same problem for variable bandwidth kernel estimates where the bandwidths are allowed to depend upon the location. We show in particular that for positive kernels on the real line, for any data-based bandwidth, there exists a densityfor which the ratio of expected L1 error over optimal L1 error tends to infinity. Thus, the problem of tuning the variable bandwidth in an optimal manner is ``too hard''. Moreover, from the class of counterexamples exhibited in the paper, it appears thatplacing conditions on the densities (monotonicity, convexity, smoothness) does not help.

Influence of male nutritional conditions on the performance and alimentary selection of wild females of Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart)(Diptera, Tephritidae)

Influence of male nutritional conditions on the performance and alimentary selection of wild females of Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) (Diptera, Tephritidae). The behavior of A. obliqua females is regulated by endogenous and exogenous factors and among these the presence of males. Experiments were carried out to investigate whether the presence of males and their nutritional condition may affect the behavior of self-selection feeding and the performance of A. obliqua females. Females were sorted in groups containing yeast-deprived females and males, and non-yeast-deprived females and males. The females were maintained apart from the males by a transparent plastic screen. Several yeast and sucrose combinations were offered to the females in a single diet block or in separate blocks. Ingestion, egg production, longevity and diet efficiency were determined. The non-yeast-deprived males positively influenced the females performance when the latter were fed with yeast and sucrose in distinct diet blocks. Performance was better in the groups without males and with yeast-deprived males where the females could not select the nutrient proportions (yeast and sucrose in a single diet block).

Do market conditions affect preferences? Evidence from experimental markets with excess supply and excess demand

We study whether people's preferences in an unbalanced market are affected by whether they are on the excess supply side or the excess demand side of the market. Our analysis is based on the comparison of behavior between two types of experimental gift exchange markets, which vary only with respect to whether first or second movers are on the long side of the market. The direction of market imbalance could influence subjects' motivation, as second movers, workers, might react differently to favorable actions by first movers, firms, in the two cases. Our data show strong deviations from the standard game-theoretic prediction. However, we only find secondary treatment effects. First movers are not more generous when they are in excess supply and second movers do not respond less favorably when they are in excess demand. Competition has only minor psychological effects in our data.

On equilibria in duopolies with finite strategy spaces

We will call a game a reachable (pure strategy) equilibria game if startingfrom any strategy by any player, by a sequence of best-response moves weare able to reach a (pure strategy) equilibrium. We give a characterizationof all finite strategy space duopolies with reachable equilibria. Wedescribe some applications of the sufficient conditions of the characterization.

Description of Photuris fulvipes (Blanchard) immatures (Coleoptera, Lampyridae, Photurinae) and bionomic aspects under laboratory conditions

Larvae and pupae of the cryptic firefly Photuris fulvipes (Blanchard,1837) are described. They were reared to adult stage from eggs laid by a female collected in São Luiz do Paraitinga, São Paulo, Brazil. Additionally, adult diagnosis and some bionomic data observed in the laboratory are presented. The bionomical and morphological characteristics of P. fulvipes were compared to other unidentified species of the genus and to Bycellonycha sp. from literature. At moment, the data are insufficient to propose a diagnosis for the species, but some characteristics appear to define species group or, at least, they may have generic value.

Fatty acids regulate Thy-1 antigen mRNA stability in T lymphocyte precursors.

In this study, we report the effect of fatty acids on the Thy-1 antigen mRNA decay. Low serum and synthetic medium culture conditions were used to demonstrate that fatty acids, which are important metabolites involved as second messengers in signal transduction, also influence the steady-state mRNA level. Detailed analysis demonstrated that polyunsaturated lipids attached to bovine serum albumin, such as linoleic, linolenic, and arachidonic acids, modulate gene expression specifically in the S1A T lymphoma cell line by inducing a 3-5-fold increase in the steady-state Thy-1 mRNA level, concomitant with a twofold increase in cell surface expression. A similar modulation was observed in the immature CD4-CD8- T cell precursors but not in mature thymocytes. Nuclear run-on and transfection experiments indicated that the observed Thy-1 mRNA level is post-transcriptionally regulated and that the presence of the coding region is sufficient for this adaptive response. A mechanism without a requirement for protein kinase C activation, but involving Ca2+ entry, could account for this difference in Thy-1 mRNA stability.

Endotoxin impairs cardiac hemodynamics by affecting loading conditions but not by reducing cardiac inotropism.

Acute myocardial dysfunction is a typical manifestation of septic shock. Experimentally, the administration of endotoxin [lipopolysacharride (LPS)] to laboratory animals is frequently used to study such dysfunction. However, a majority of studies used load-dependent indexes of cardiac function [including ejection fraction (EF) and maximal systolic pressure increment (dP/dt(max))], which do not directly explore cardiac inotropism. Therefore, we evaluated the direct effects of LPS on myocardial contractility, using left ventricular (LV) pressure-volume catheters in mice. Male BALB/c mice received an intraperitoneal injection of E. coli LPS (1, 5, 10, or 20 mg/kg). After 2, 6, or 20 h, cardiac function was analyzed in anesthetized, mechanically ventilated mice. All doses of LPS induced a significant drop in LV stroke volume and a trend toward reduced cardiac output after 6 h. Concomitantly, there was a significant decrease of LV preload (LV end-diastolic volume), with no apparent change in LV afterload (evaluated by effective arterial elastance and systemic vascular resistance). Load-dependent indexes of LV function were markedly reduced at 6 h, including EF, stroke work, and dP/dt(max). In contrast, there was no reduction of load-independent indexes of LV contractility, including end-systolic elastance (ejection phase measure of contractility) and the ratio dP/dt(max)/end-diastolic volume (isovolumic phase measure of contractility), the latter showing instead a significant increase after 6 h. All changes were transient, returning to baseline values after 20 h. Therefore, the alterations of cardiac function induced by LPS are entirely due to altered loading conditions, but not to reduced contractility, which may instead be slightly increased.

Contrôle biologique de la pourriture cendrée (Macrophomina phaseolina) du niébé par l’enrobage des semences avec Clonostachys rosea: Impact des conditions de conservation des semences traitées sur la performance du bioagent.

Dans les sols infestés avec Macrophomina phaseolina les semences de niébé ne germent pas ou bien la plantule est détruite plus ou moins rapidement après la germination. Clonostachys rosea est un champignon commun du sol reconnu comme un saprophyte avec une haute capacité de compétition sur les racines et dans le sol. Notre étude a pour objectif d’évaluer l’effet de C. rosea en traitement de semences du niébé conservées à 40°C sur le développement de la pourriture charbonneuse. L’effet de la durée de conservation sur la viabilité des spores et le pouvoir antagonique du bioagent a également été étudié dans les conditions semi contrôlé et au champ. Les isolats de C. rosea proviennent de la collection du laboratoire de phytopathologie de AGRHYMET. La production des spores a été effectuée sur le milieu PDA pendant 4 semaines. Les semences du niébé ont été traitées avec une suspension de spores à la concentration de 108 spores / ml à raison de 5 ml de suspension par kg de semences. Les semences traitées ont été séchées sous la hotte à flux laminaire pendant 2 h avant d’être semées ou conservées à 40°C. Des tests de viabilité des spores de C. rosea sur le milieu de culture PDA ont été effectués au laboratoire tous les 15 jours de conservation. Le taux de germination des semences sur papier buvard, évalué au cinquième jour après semis au laboratoire a été de 99 %. La forte moyenne de spores viables au jour de l’enrobage (J0) (>4,5 105), a chuté à 1700 spores par graines après 75 jours de conservation. En serre, le niveau de colonisation des tissus des plants de niébé se développant sur le sol infesté a été significativement plus faible chez les plants issus de graines enrobées (1009 microsclérotes/g tissus) que chez ceux issus de graines non enrobées (2356 microsclérotes/g tissus). Par rapport a la sévérité de la maladie, exprimée sur une échelle de 1-5, ont été notées une forte infection des plants du témoin Macrophomina (graines non traitées semées dans un sol infesté) et des attaques moins sévères sur les traitements G3M et G4M (graines traitées semées dans un sol infesté). Au champ dans l’essai semé avec des graines enrobées mais non conservées, l’association des isolats G3 et G4 a été nettement supérieure aux autres traitements par rapport aux rendements en fane et en graines. Par contre, par rapport au rendement, aucun effet des traitements n’a été observé dans l’essai semé avec les graines conservées pendant 30 jours.

Building an honest microfinance organization: Embezzlement and the optimality of rigid repayment schedules and joint liability

We consider the agency problem of a staff member managing microfinancing programs, who can abuse his discretion to embezzle borrowers' repayments. The fact that most borrowers of microfinancing programs are illiterate and live in rural areas where transportation costs are very high make staff's embezzlement particularly relevant as is documented by Mknelly and Kevane (2002). We study the trade-off between the optimal rigid lending contract and the optimal discretionary one and find that a rigid contract is optimal when the audit cost is larger than gains from insurance. Our analysis explains rigid repayment schedules used by the Grameen bank as an optimal response to the bank staff's agency problem. Joint liability reduces borrowers' burden of respecting the rigid repayment schedules by providing them with partial insurance. However, the same insurance can be provided byborrowers themselves under individual liability through a side-contract.

Assessing an intuitive condition for stability under a range of traffic conditions via a generalised Lu-Kumar network

We argue the importance both of developing simple sufficientconditions for the stability of general multiclass queueing networks and also of assessing such conditions under a range of assumptions on the weight of the traffic flowing between service stations. To achieve the former, we review a peak-rate stability condition and extend its range of application and for the latter, we introduce a generalisation of the Lu-Kumar network on which the stability condition may be tested for a range of traffic configurations. The peak-rate condition is close to exact when the between-station traffic is light, but degrades as this traffic increases.

Avaliação Ecológica das Terras Salgadas - Ilha do Maio, Cabo Verde para Possível Estabelecimento de uma Nova População da Laverca do Raso (Alauda Razae)

A laverca do Raso (Alauda razae) é uma espécie em risco crítico de extinção pois só existe num pequeno ilhéu de 7km2, o ilhéu do Raso em Cabo Verde. As medidas de protecção já adoptadas, não são, aparentemente, suficientes para prevenir os riscos a que esta espécie está ou poderá estar sujeita e que podem incluir grandes períodos de seca, ocorrência de uma catástrofe natural ou a introdução acidental de mamíferos predadores, como gatos e ratos. Assim, torna-se urgente a adopção de outras medidas de protecção da espécie, como por exemplo o estabelecimento de novas populações noutras ilhas. A ilha do Maio, localizada no grupo sul do arquipélago de Cabo Verde, a 200km do Raso, poderá ser um bom local para estabelecer uma nova população da laverca do Raso. A zona litoral das Terras Salgadas é um local potencial para este efeito, uma vez que é um Parque Nacional, protegido por lei e apresenta um habitat potencialmente semelhante ao encontrado no Ilhéu do Raso. No presente estudo procedeu-se à avaliação ecológica das Terras Salgadas de modo a avaliar a possibilidade de aí se estabelecer uma nova população da laverca do Raso. Foram selecionadas 4 áreas litorais (cada uma com 25ha) que foram caracterizadas quanto ao tipo de ocupação do solo, à flora e à fauna, através de pontos de amostragem, transectos lineares, captura de ratos e contagem de insectos nocturnos. Foi dada particular atenção aos factores favoráveis à sobrevivência da cotovia-do-Raso (presença de plantas e insectos de que se alimenta e de locais favoráveis à nidificação) bem como àqueles que constituem riscos (influência humana e presença de predadores). Todos estes dados foram georreferenciados e mapeados. Os resultados obtidos permitiram concluir que, apesar da existência de factores de risco para a introdução da laverca do Raso, existem pelo menos duas áreas estudadas que reúnem as condições potencialmente adequadas ao estabelecimento bem-sucedido de uma nova população desta espécie.