Perceiving Prospects Properly

When an agent chooses between prospects, noise in information processing generates an effect akin to the winner’s curse. Statistically unbiased perception systematically overvalues the chosen action because it fails to account for the possibility that noise is responsible for making the preferred action appear to be optimal. The optimal perception patterns share key features with prospect theory, namely, overweighting of small probability events (and corresponding underweighting of high probability events), status quo bias, and reference-dependent S-shaped valuations. These biases arise to correct for the winner’s curse effect.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Optimization and inhibition of the adherent ability of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes

The vast majority of the 1-2 million malaria associated deaths that occur each year are due to anemia and cerebral malaria (the attachment of erythrocytes containing mature forms of Plasmodium falciparum to the endothelial cells that line the vascular beds of the brain). A "model" system"for the study of cerebral malaria employs amelanotic melanoma cells as the "target"cells in an vitro cytoadherence assay. Using this model system we determined that the optimum pH for adherence is 6.6 to 6.8, that high concentrations of Ca²* (50mM) result in increased levels of binding, and that the type of buffer used influences adherence (Bis Tris > MOPS > HEPES > PIPES). We also observed that the ability of infected erythrocytes to cytoadhere varied from (erythrocyte) donor to donor. We have produced murine monoclonal antibodies against P. falciparum-infected red cells which recognized modified forms of human band 3; these inhibit the adherence of infected erythrocytes to melanoma cells in a doso responsive fashion. Antimalarials (chloroquine, quinacrine, mefloquine, artemisinin), on the other hand, affected adherence in an indirect fashion i.e. since cytoadherence is due, in part to the presence of knobs on the surface of the infected erythrocyte, and knob formation is dependent on intracellular parasite growth, when plasmodial development is inhibited so is knob production, and consequently adherence is ablated.

Interleukin-4 and interleukin-5 as targets for the inhibition of eosinophilic inflammation and allergic airways hyperreactivity

Clinical and experimental investigations suggest that allergen-specific CD4+ T-cells, IgE and the cytokines IL-4 and IL-5 play central roles in initiating and sustaining an asthmatic response by regulating the recruitment and/or activation of airways mast cells and eosinophils. IL-5 plays a unique role in eosinophil development and activation and has been strongly implicated in the aetiology of asthma. The present paper summarizes our recent investigations on the role of these cytokines using cytokine knockout mice and a mouse aeroallergen model. Investigations in IL-5-/- mice indicate that this cytokine is critical for regulating aeroallergen-induced eosinophilia, the onset of lung damage and airways hyperreactivity during allergic airways inflammation. While IL-4 and allergen-specific IgE play important roles in the regulation of allergic disease, recent investigations in IL4-/- mice suggest that allergic airways inflammation can occur via pathways which operate independently of these molecules. Activation of these IL-4 independent pathways are also intimately associated with CD4+ T-cells, IL-5 signal transduction and eosinophilic inflammation. Such IL-5 regulated pathways may also play a substantive role in the aetiology of asthma. Thus, evidence is now emerging that allergic airways disease is regulated by humoral and cell mediated processes. The central role of IL-5 in both components of allergic disease highlights the requirements for highly specific therapeutic agents which inhibit the production or action of this cytokine.

The role of interleukin-5 (IL-5 ) in vivo: studies with IL-5 deficient mice

Eosinophil recruitment is a characteristic feature of a number of pathological conditions and was the topic of the recent International Symposium on allergic inflammation, asthma, parasitic and infectious diseases (Rio de Janeiro, June 3-5, 1996). Since interleukin5 (IL5) is believed to regulate the growth, differentiation and activation of eosinophils (Coffman et al. 1989, Sanderson 1992), the role of eosinophils and IL5 are closely linked. Although IL5 specifically regulates eosinophilia in vivo and this is its most well established activity, it is becoming clear that IL5 also has other biological effects. The recent derivation of an IL5 deficient mouse (Kopf et al. 1996), provides a model for exploring not only the role of IL5 and eosinophils but also other novel activities of IL5. Of note is that although the IL5 deficient mice cannot elicit a pronounced eosinophilia in response to inflammatory stimulation following aeroallergen challenge or parasite infection they still produce basal levels of eosinophils that appear to be morphologically and functionally normal. However, the basal levels of eosinophils appear insufficient for normal host defence as IL5 deficiency has now been shown to compromise defence against several helminth infections. In addition, IL5 deficient mice appear to have functional deficiencies in B-1 B lymphocytes and in IgA production.

Ascertaining late-life depressive symptoms in Europe: an evaluation of the survey version of the EURO-D scale in 10 nations. The SHARE project.

The reported prevalence of late-life depressive symptoms varies widely between studies, a finding that might be attributed to cultural as well as methodological factors. The EURO-D scale was developed to allow valid comparison of prevalence and risk associations between European countries. This study used Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Rasch models to assess whether the goal of measurement invariance had been achieved; using EURO-D scale data collected in 10 European countries as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 22,777). The results suggested a two-factor solution (Affective Suffering and Motivation) after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 9 of the 10 countries. With CFA, in all countries, the two-factor solution had better overall goodness-of-fit than the one-factor solution. However, only the Affective Suffering subscale was equivalent across countries, while the Motivation subscale was not. The Rasch model indicated that the EURO-D was a hierarchical scale. While the calibration pattern was similar across countries, between countries agreement in item calibrations was stronger for the items loading on the affective suffering than the motivation factor. In conclusion, there is evidence to support the EURO-D as either a uni-dimensional or bi-dimensional scale measure of depressive symptoms in late-life across European countries. The Affective Suffering sub-component had more robust cross-cultural validity than the Motivation sub-component.

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Accounting for Big City Growth in Low Paid Occupations: Immigration and/or Service Class Consumption

Growth of 'global cities' in the 1980s was supposed to have involved an occupational polarisation, including growth of low paid service jobs. Though held to be untrue for European cities, at the time, some such growth did emerge in London a decade later than first reported for New York. The question is whether there was simply a delay before London conformed to the global city model, or whether another distinct cause was at work in both cases. This paper proposes that the critical factor in both cases was actually an upsurge of immigration from poor countries providing an elastic supply of cheap labour. This hypothesis and its counterpart based on growth in elite jobs are tested econometrically for the British case with regional data spanning 1975-2008, finding some support for both effects, but with immigration from poor countries as the crucial influence in late 1990s London. Keywords: regional labour markets; wages; employment; international migration; consumer demand JEL Codes: J21, J23, F22, R12

In-depth assessment delivers the verdict on the Government�۪s promise of a more equal society

An independent and detailed expert analysis of a decade of reforms (published 25 February) takes up the challenge made by Peter Mandelson in 1997 to “judge us after ten years of success in office. For one of the fruits of that success will be that Britain has become a more equal society.����”Commissioned by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the study, by a team led by LSE’s Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, shows sharp contrasts between different policy areas. Notable success stories include reductions in child and pensioner poverty, improved education outcomes for the poorest children and schools, and narrowing economic and other divides between deprived and other areas.But health inequalities continued to widen, gaps in incomes between the very top and very bottom grew, and poverty increased for working-age people without children.����In several policy areas there was a marked contrast between the first half of the New Labour period and the second half, when progress has slowed or even stalled.John Hills, one of the leaders of study, said, “Whether Britain has moved towards becoming a ‘more equal society’ depends on what you look at, and when. Where clear initiatives were taken, results followed. But as the growth of living standards slowed, even well before the recession, and public finances tightened, momentum seems to have been lost in several key areas.”Kitty Stewart added, “The government can take heart from achievements such as the reduction in child poverty up to 2004.����Recent data show that by then, child well-being in the UK had begun to move up the European league table from its dismal showing at the start of the decade that formed the basis of UNICEF’s damning 2007 report. But even with improved figures, Britain was still left with one of the highest rates of child poverty out of the 15 original EU members, and the latest figures show it had increased again by 2006/7.”����The study concludes that the decade from 1997 was favourable to an egalitarian agenda in several ways: the economy grew continuously; the government had large majorities and aspired to create more equality; and public attitudes surveys suggested pent-up demand for more public expenditure. But that environment now looks very uncertain, not just in the near future, but also in the longer term.����Fiscal pressures from an ageing society could further constrain resources available for redistribution, and public attitudes towards the benefit system have hardened while support for redistribution has declined.Hills added, “The 1980s and 1990s showed that hoping that rapid growth in living standards at the top would ‘trickle down’ to those at the bottom did not work.����The period since 1997 has shown that gains are possible through determined interventions, but they require intensive and continuous effort to be sustained.”JRF Chief Executive Julia Unwin added, “We know the potential impact the deepening recession will have on those already living in poverty. This book provides an important, timely and comprehensive assessment of where we are and what remains to be done.”

Nitric oxide and the resolution of inflammation: implications for atherosclerosis

The ubiquitous free radical, nitric oxide (NO), plays an important role in many biological processes including the regulation of the inflammatory response. Alterations in NO synthesis by endogenous systems likely influence inflammatory processes occurring in a wide range of diseases including many in the cardiovascular system (e.g. atherosclerosis). Progression of inflammatory conditions depends not only upon the recruitment and activation of inflammatory cells but also upon their subsequent removal from the inflammatory milieu. Apoptosis, or programmed cell death, is a fundamental process regulating inflammatory cell survival and is critically involved in ensuring the successful resolution of an inflammatory response. Apoptosis results in shutdown of secretory pathways and renders effete, but potentially highly histotoxic, cells instantly recognisable for non-inflammatory clearance by phagocytes (e.g., macrophages). However, dysregulation of apoptosis and phagocytic clearance mechanisms can have drastic consequences for development and resolution of inflammatory processes. In this review we highlight the complexities of NO-mediated regulation of inflammatory cell apoptosis and clearance by phagocytes and discuss the molecular mechanisms controlling these NO mediated effects. We believe that manipulation of pathways involving NO may have previously unrecognised therapeutic potential for limiting or resolving inflammatory and cardiovascular disease.

Single-stranded oligonucleotide-mediated in vivo gene repair in the rd1 retina.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to test whether oligonucleotide-targeted gene repair can correct the point mutation in genomic DNA of PDE6b(rd1) (rd1) mouse retinas in vivo. METHODS: Oligonucleotides (ODNs) of 25 nucleotide length and complementary to genomic sequence subsuming the rd1 point mutation in the gene encoding the beta-subunit of rod photoreceptor cGMP-phosphodiesterase (beta-PDE), were synthesized with a wild type nucleotide base at the rd1 point mutation position. Control ODNs contained the same nucleotide bases as the wild type ODNs but with varying degrees of sequence mismatch. We previously developed a repeatable and relatively non-invasive technique to enhance ODN delivery to photoreceptor nuclei using transpalpebral iontophoresis prior to intravitreal ODN injection. Three such treatments were performed on C3H/henJ (rd1) mouse pups before postnatal day (PN) 9. Treatment outcomes were evaluated at PN28 or PN33, when retinal degeneration was nearly complete in the untreated rd1 mice. The effect of treatment on photoreceptor survival was evaluated by counting the number of nuclei of photoreceptor cells and by assessing rhodopsin immunohistochemistry on flat-mount retinas and sections. Gene repair in the retina was quantified by allele-specific real time PCR and by detection of beta-PDE-immunoreactive photoreceptors. Confirmatory experiments were conducted using independent rd1 colonies in separate laboratories. These experiments had an additional negative control ODN that contained the rd1 mutant nucleotide base at the rd1 point mutation site such that the sole difference between treatment with wild type and control ODN was the single base at the rd1 point mutation site. RESULTS: Iontophoresis enhanced the penetration of intravitreally injected ODNs in all retinal layers. Using this delivery technique, significant survival of photoreceptors was observed in retinas from eyes treated with wild type ODNs but not control ODNs as demonstrated by cell counting and rhodopsin immunoreactivity at PN28. Beta-PDE immunoreactivity was present in retinas from eyes treated with wild type ODN but not from those treated with control ODNs. Gene correction demonstrated by allele-specific real time PCR and by counts of beta-PDE-immunoreactive cells was estimated at 0.2%. Independent confirmatory experiments showed that retinas from eyes treated with wild type ODN contained many more rhodopsin immunoreactive cells compared to retinas treated with control (rd1 sequence) ODN, even when harvested at PN33. CONCLUSIONS: Short ODNs can be delivered with repeatable efficiency to mouse photoreceptor cells in vivo using a combination of intravitreal injection and iontophoresis. Delivery of therapeutic ODNs to rd1 mouse eyes resulted in genomic DNA conversion from mutant to wild type sequence, low but observable beta-PDE immunoreactivity, and preservation of rhodopsin immunopositive cells in the outer nuclear layer, suggesting that ODN-directed gene repair occurred and preserved rod photoreceptor cells. Effects were not seen in eyes treated with buffer or with ODNs having the rd1 mutant sequence, a definitive control for this therapeutic approach. Importantly, critical experiments were confirmed in two laboratories by several different researchers using independent mouse colonies and ODN preparations from separate sources. These findings suggest that targeted gene repair can be achieved in the retina following enhanced ODN delivery.

Relation of heart rate to percent VO2 peak during submaximal exercise in the heat.

We tested the hypothesis that elevation in heart rate (HR) during submaximal exercise in the heat is related, in part, to increased percentage of maximal O(2) uptake (%Vo(2 max)) utilized due to reduced maximal O(2) uptake (Vo(2 max)) measured after exercise under the same thermal conditions. Peak O(2) uptake (Vo(2 peak)), O(2) uptake, and HR during submaximal exercise were measured in 22 male and female runners under four environmental conditions designed to manipulate HR during submaximal exercise and Vo(2 peak). The conditions involved walking for 20 min at approximately 33% of control Vo(2 max) in 25, 35, 40, and 45 degrees C followed immediately by measurement of Vo(2 peak) in the same thermal environment. Vo(2 peak) decreased progressively (3.77 +/- 0.19, 3.61 +/- 0.18, 3.44 +/- 0.17, and 3.13 +/- 0.16 l/min) and HR at the end of the submaximal exercise increased progressively (107 +/- 2, 112 +/- 2, 120 +/- 2, and 137 +/- 2 beats/min) with increasing ambient temperature (T(a)). HR and %Vo(2 peak) increased in an identical fashion with increasing T(a). We conclude that elevation in HR during submaximal exercise in the heat is related, in part, to the increase in %Vo(2 peak) utilized, which is caused by reduced Vo(2 peak) measured during exercise in the heat. At high T(a), the dissociation of HR from %Vo(2 peak) measured after sustained submaximal exercise is less than if Vo(2 max) is assumed to be unchanged during exercise in the heat.

Open Educational Resources for Development of University Courses

Open Education Resources are educational materials purposely made available for free use by others. They offer tremendous potential for reducing costs and increasing access to education especially in the developing world. This paper discusses issues of quality, localization, adaptation and integration that need to be addressed in order to make OER adoption a successful strategy.