Quantifying time scales of pedogenic calcrete formation using U-series disequilibria

Time scales of pedogenic calcrete development are quantified by subsampling carbonate from within a mature (stage V) pedogenic calcrete profile from southeast Spain and dating the material by U-series disequilibria. The location of the earliest and latest cements can be estimated by comparing previous studies of calcrete morphological development with micromorphological analysis of the study profile. Carbonate was sampled and dated from three locations within the profile: (1) below the lower surface of clasts within the hardpan (representing the earliest cement present-207 +/- 11 ka), (2) from the centre of cement filled pores within the hardpan (reflecting the final plugging of the calcrete hardpan-155 +/- 9 ka) and (3) from the laminar calcrete overlying the hardpan (representing the latest cement-112 +/- 15 ka). These results show that the hardpan took between 73 and 31 ka to form, whilst the mature stage V profile took between 121 and 69 ka to form. This is the first time that rates of mature calcrete development have been established by direct radiometric dating of the authigenic carbonate. The technique is appropriate for dating mature calcretes in dryland regions worldwide and offers the opportunity of increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in rates of pedogenic calcrete development. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field.

Airborne measurements of the spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition across Europe and evolution of the organic fraction

The spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition and the evolution of the Organic Aerosol (OA) fraction is investigated based upon airborne measurements of aerosol chemical composition in the planetary boundary layer across Europe. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured using a compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToF-AMS). A range of sampling conditions were evaluated, including relatively clean background conditions, polluted conditions in North-Western Europe and the near-field to far-field outflow from such conditions. Ammonium nitrate and OA were found to be the dominant chemical components of the sub-micron aerosol burden, with mass fractions ranging from 20--50% each. Ammonium nitrate was found to dominate in North-Western Europe during episodes of high pollution, reflecting the enhanced NO_x and ammonia sources in this region. OA was ubiquitous across Europe and concentrations generally exceeded sulphate by 30--160%. A factor analysis of the OA burden was performed in order to probe the evolution across this large range of spatial and temporal scales. Two separate Oxygenated Organic Aerosol (OOA) components were identified; one representing an aged-OOA, termed Low Volatility-OOA and another representing fresher-OOA, termed Semi Volatile-OOA on the basis of their mass spectral similarity to previous studies. The factors derived from different flights were not chemically the same but rather reflect the range of OA composition sampled during a particular flight. Significant chemical processing of the OA was observed downwind of major sources in North-Western Europe, with the LV-OOA component becoming increasingly dominant as the distance from source and photochemical processing increased. The measurements suggest that the aging of OA can be viewed as a continuum, with a progression from a less oxidised, semi-volatile component to a highly oxidised, less-volatile component. Substantial amounts of pollution were observed far downwind of continental Europe, with OA and ammonium nitrate being the major constituents of the sub-micron aerosol burden. Such anthropogenically perturbed air masses can significantly perturb regional climate far downwind of major source regions.

Temporal and spatial variability of mobile fauna on a submarine cliff and boulder scree complex: a community in flux

The mobile component of a community inhabiting a submarine boulder scree/cliff was investigated at Lough Hyne, Ireland at dawn, midday, dusk and night over a 1-week period. Line transects (50 m) were placed in the infralittoral (6 m) and circumlittoral (18 m) zones and also the interface between these two zones (12 m). The dominant mobile fauna of this cliff consisted of echinoderms (6 species), crustaceans (10 species) and fish (23 species). A different component community was identified at each time/depth interval using Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS) even though both species diversity (Shannon-Wiener indices) and richness (number of species) remained constant. These changes in community composition provided indirect evidence for migration by these mobile organisms. However, little evidence was found for migration between different zones with the exception of the several wrasse species. These species were observed to spend the daytime foraging in the deeper zone, but returned to the upper zone at night presumably for protection from predators. For the majority of species, migration was considered to occur to cryptic habitats such as holes and crevices. The number of organisms declined during the night, although crustacean numbers peaked, while fish and echinoderms were most abundant during day, possibly due to predator-prey interactions. This submarine community is in a state of flux, whereby, community characteristics, including trophic and energetic relationships, varied over small temporal (daily) and spatial (m) scales.

Resolving the spatial variability of soil N using fractions of soil organic matter

The spatial variability of soil nitrogen (N) mineralisation has not been extensively studied, which limits our capacity to make N fertiliser recommendations. Even less attention has been paid to the scale-dependence of the variation. The objective of this research was to investigate the scale-dependence of variation of mineral N (MinN, N–NO3− plus N–NH4+) at within-field scales. The study was based on the spatial dependence of the labile fractions of SOM, the key fractions for N mineralisation. Soils were sampled in an unbalanced nested design in a 4-ha arable field to examine the distribution of the variation of SOM at 30, 10, 1, and 0.12 m. Organic matter in free and intra-aggregate light fractions (FLF and IALF) was extracted by physical fractionation. The variation occurred entirely within 0.12 m for FLF and at 10 m for IALF. A subsequent sampling on a 5-m grid was undertaken to link the status of the SOM fractions to MinN, which showed uncorrelated spatial dependence. A uniform application of N fertiliser would be suitable in this case. The failure of SOM fractions to identify any spatial dependence of MinN suggests that other soil variables, or crop indicators, should be tested to see if they can identify different N supply areas within the field for a more efficient and environmentally friendly N management.

Large-scale length and time scales for use with stochastic convective parameterization

Many numerical models for weather prediction and climate studies are run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve convection explicitly, but too fine to justify the local equilibrium assumed by conventional convective parameterizations. The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme, developed in this paper, solves this problem by removing the assumption that a given grid-scale situation must always produce the same sub-grid-scale convective response. Instead, for each timestep and gridpoint, one of the many possible convective responses consistent with the large-scale situation is randomly selected. The scheme requires as input the large-scale state as opposed to the instantaneous grid-scale state, but must nonetheless be able to account for genuine variations in the largescale situation. Here we investigate the behaviour of the PC scheme in three-dimensional simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium, demonstrating in particular that the necessary space-time averaging required to produce a good representation of the input large-scale state is not in conflict with the requirement to capture large-scale variations. The resulting equilibrium profiles agree well with those obtained from established deterministic schemes, and with corresponding cloud-resolving model simulations. Unlike the conventional schemes the statistics for mass flux and rainfall variability from the PC scheme also agree well with relevant theory and vary appropriately with spatial scale. The scheme is further shown to adapt automatically to changes in grid length and in forcing strength.

Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment Part II: impact of spatial heterogeneity of the surface

The centre of cities, characterised by spatial and temporal complexity, are challenging environments for micrometeorological research. This paper considers the impact of sensor location and heterogeneity of the urban surface on flux observations in the dense city centre of London, UK. Data gathered at two sites in close vicinity, but with different measurement heights, were analysed to investigate the influence of source area characteristics on long-term radiation and turbulent heat fluxes. Combining consideration of diffuse radiation and effects of specular reflections, the non-Lambertian urban surface is found to impact the measurements of surface albedo. Comparisons of observations from the two sites reveal that turbulent heat fluxes are similar under some flow conditions. However, they mostly observe processes at different scales due to their differing measurement heights, highlighting the critical impact of siting sensors in urban areas. A detailed source area analysis is presented to investigate the surface controls influencing the energy exchanges at the different scales

Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Spatial variability of liquid cloud and rain: observations and microphysical effects

Spatial variability of liquid cloud water content and rainwater content is analysed from three different observational platforms: in situ measurements from research aircraft, land-based remote sensing techniques using radar and lidar, and spaceborne remote sensing from CloudSat. The variance is found to increase with spatial scale, but also depends strongly on the cloud or rain fraction regime, with overcast regions containing less variability than broken cloud fields. This variability is shown to lead to large biases, up to a factor of 4, in both the autoconversion and accretion rates estimated at a model grid scale of ≈40 km by a typical microphysical parametrization using in-cloud mean values. A parametrization for the subgrid variability of liquid cloud and rainwater content is developed, based on the observations, which varies with both the grid scale and cloud or rain fraction, and is applicable for all model grid scales. It is then shown that if this parametrization of the variability is analytically incorporated into the autoconversion and accretion rate calculations, the bias is significantly reduced.

Spatial structuring of arbuscular mycorrhizal communities in benchmark and modified temperate eucalypt woodlands

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are crucial to the functioning of the plant–soil system, but little is known about the spatial structuring of AMF communities across landscapes modified by agriculture. AMF community composition was characterized across four sites in the highly cleared south-western Australian wheatbelt that were originally dominated by forb-rich eucalypt woodlands. Environmentally induced spatial structuring in AMF composition was examined at four scales: the regional scale associated with location, the site scale associated with past management (benchmark woodlands with no agricultural management history, livestock grazing, recent revegetation), the patch scale associated with trees and canopy gaps, and the fine scale associated with the herbaceous plant species beneath which soils were sourced. Field-collected soils were cultured in trap pots; then, AMF composition was determined by identifying spores and through ITS1 sequencing. Structuring was strongest at site scales, where composition was strongly related to prior management and associated changes in soil phosphorus. The two fields were dominated by the genera Funneliformis and Paraglomus, with little convergence back to woodland composition after revegetation. The two benchmark woodlands were characterized by Ambispora gerdemannii and taxa from Gigasporaceae. Their AMF communities were strongly structured at patch scales associated with trees and gaps, in turn most strongly related to soil N. By contrast, there were few patterns at fine scales related to different herbaceous plant species, or at regional scales associated with the 175 km distance between benchmark woodlands. Important areas for future investigation are to identify the circumstances in which recolonization by woodland AMF may be limited by fungal propagule availability, reduced plant diversity and/or altered chemistry in agricultural soils.