Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Effects of computing parameters and measurement locations on the estimation of 3D NPS in non-stationary MDCT images.

The goal of this study was to investigate the impact of computing parameters and the location of volumes of interest (VOI) on the calculation of 3D noise power spectrum (NPS) in order to determine an optimal set of computing parameters and propose a robust method for evaluating the noise properties of imaging systems. Noise stationarity in noise volumes acquired with a water phantom on a 128-MDCT and a 320-MDCT scanner were analyzed in the spatial domain in order to define locally stationary VOIs. The influence of the computing parameters in the 3D NPS measurement: the sampling distances bx,y,z and the VOI lengths Lx,y,z, the number of VOIs NVOI and the structured noise were investigated to minimize measurement errors. The effect of the VOI locations on the NPS was also investigated. Results showed that the noise (standard deviation) varies more in the r-direction (phantom radius) than z-direction plane. A 25 × 25 × 40 mm(3) VOI associated with DFOV = 200 mm (Lx,y,z = 64, bx,y = 0.391 mm with 512 × 512 matrix) and a first-order detrending method to reduce structured noise led to an accurate NPS estimation. NPS estimated from off centered small VOIs had a directional dependency contrary to NPS obtained from large VOIs located in the center of the volume or from small VOIs located on a concentric circle. This showed that the VOI size and location play a major role in the determination of NPS when images are not stationary. This study emphasizes the need for consistent measurement methods to assess and compare image quality in CT.

Partial correlation : Network analysis

The final year project came to us as an opportunity to get involved in a topic which has appeared to be attractive during the learning process of majoring in economics: statistics and its application to the analysis of economic data, i.e. econometrics.Moreover, the combination of econometrics and computer science is a very hot topic nowadays, given the Information Technologies boom in the last decades and the consequent exponential increase in the amount of data collected and stored day by day. Data analysts able to deal with Big Data and to find useful results from it are verydemanded in these days and, according to our understanding, the work they do, although sometimes controversial in terms of ethics, is a clear source of value added both for private corporations and the public sector. For these reasons, the essence of this project is the study of a statistical instrument valid for the analysis of large datasets which is directly related to computer science: Partial Correlation Networks.The structure of the project has been determined by our objectives through the development of it. At first, the characteristics of the studied instrument are explained, from the basic ideas up to the features of the model behind it, with the final goal of presenting SPACE model as a tool for estimating interconnections in between elements in large data sets. Afterwards, an illustrated simulation is performed in order to show the power and efficiency of the model presented. And at last, the model is put into practice by analyzing a relatively large data set of real world data, with the objective of assessing whether the proposed statistical instrument is valid and useful when applied to a real multivariate time series. In short, our main goals are to present the model and evaluate if Partial Correlation Network Analysis is an effective, useful instrument and allows finding valuable results from Big Data.As a result, the findings all along this project suggest the Partial Correlation Estimation by Joint Sparse Regression Models approach presented by Peng et al. (2009) to work well under the assumption of sparsity of data. Moreover, partial correlation networks are shown to be a very valid tool to represent cross-sectional interconnections in between elements in large data sets.The scope of this project is however limited, as there are some sections in which deeper analysis would have been appropriate. Considering intertemporal connections in between elements, the choice of the tuning parameter lambda, or a deeper analysis of the results in the real data application are examples of aspects in which this project could be completed.To sum up, the analyzed statistical tool has been proved to be a very useful instrument to find relationships that connect the elements present in a large data set. And after all, partial correlation networks allow the owner of this set to observe and analyze the existing linkages that could have been omitted otherwise.

Soybean crop area estimation by Modis/Evi data

The objective of this work was to develop a procedure to estimate soybean crop areas in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. Estimations were made based on the temporal profiles of the enhanced vegetation index (Evi) calculated from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (Modis) images. The methodology developed for soybean classification was named Modis crop detection algorithm (MCDA). The MCDA provides soybean area estimates in December (first forecast), using images from the sowing period, and March (second forecast), using images from the sowing and maximum crop development periods. The results obtained by the MCDA were compared with the official estimates on soybean area of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. The coefficients of determination ranged from 0.91 to 0.95, indicating good agreement between the estimates. For the 2000/2001 crop year, the MCDA soybean crop map was evaluated using a soybean crop map derived from Landsat images, and the overall map accuracy was approximately 82%, with similar commission and omission errors. The MCDA was able to estimate soybean crop areas in Rio Grande do Sul State and to generate an annual thematic map with the geographic position of the soybean fields. The soybean crop area estimates by the MCDA are in good agreement with the official agricultural statistics.

Resolução espacial de um modelo digital de elevação definida pela função wavelet

O objetivo deste trabalho foi definir a resolução espacial mais apropriada para representar a variabilidade da elevação, declividade, curvatura em perfil e índice de umidade topográfica de um terreno, por meio de avaliações com a transformada wavelet. Os dados utilizados no estudo têm sua origem em três transectos de 27 km, posicionados em áreas do Planalto, Rebordo do Planalto e Depressão Central na região central do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. As variáveis - elevação, declividade, curvatura em perfil e índice de umidade topográfica - foram derivadas de um modelo digital de elevação Topodata com resolução de 30 m. A avaliação da resolução com a máxima variabilidade foi realizada pela aplicação da wavelet-mãe, denominada Morlet. Os resultados foram analisados a partir do isograma e do escalograma dos coeficientes wavelet e indicaram que sensores remotos com resolução espacial próxima a 32 e 40 m podem ser utilizados em pesquisas que considerem os atributos de terreno, como declividade, curvatura em perfil e índice de umidade topográfica, ou, ainda, fenômenos ambientais correlacionados a eles. No entanto, não foi possível estabelecer um valor conclusivo para a resolução espacial mais adequada para a variável elevação.

Stratified estimation of forest inventory variables using spatially summarized stratifications

Abstract

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture.

Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the trabecular bone score (TBS) measure. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis values, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goal of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. We included 631 women: mean age 67.4 ± 6.7 years, BMI 26.1 ± 4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943 ± 0.168 (T-score − 1.4 SD), and TBS 1.271 ± 0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2 = 0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2-2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), and 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), and 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < − 2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < − 2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been misclassified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS and HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Construction mechanisms and thermal evolution of upper crustal intrusions : the Saint-Jean-du-Doigt bimodal intrusion (Brittany, France)

Understanding the emplacement and growth of intrusive bodies in terms of mechanism, duration, ther¬mal evolution and rates are fundamental aspects of crustal evolution. Recent studies show that many plutons grow in several Ma by in situ accretion of discrete magma pulses, which constitute small-scale magmatic reservoirs. The residence time of magmas, and hence their capacities to interact and differentiate, are con¬trolled by the local thermal environment. The latter is highly dependant on 1) the emplacement depth, 2) the magmas and country rock composition, 3) the country rock thermal conductivity, 4) the rate of magma injection and 5) the geometry of the intrusion. In shallow level plutons, where magmas solidify quickly, evi¬dence for magma mixing and/or differentiation processes is considered by many authors to be inherited from deeper levels. This work shows however that in-situ differentiation and magma interactions occurred within basaltic and felsic sills at shallow depth (0.3 GPa) in the St-Jean-du-Doigt (SJDD) bimodal intrusion, France. This intrusion emplaced ca. 347 Ma ago (IDTIMS U/Pb on zircon) in the Precambrian crust of the Armori- can massif and preserves remarkable sill-like emplacement processes of bimodal mafic-felsic magmas. Field evidence coupled to high precision zircon U-Pb dating document progressive thermal maturation within the incrementally built ioppolith. Early m-thick mafic sills (eastern part) form the roof of the intrusion and are homogeneous and fine-grained with planar contacts with neighboring felsic sills; within a minimal 0.8 Ma time span, the system gets warmer (western part). Sills are emplaced by under-accretion under the old east¬ern part, interact and mingle. A striking feature of this younger, warmer part is in-situ differentiation of the mafic sills in the top 40 cm of the layer, which suggests liquids survival in the shallow crust. Rheological and thermal models were performed in order to determine the parameters required to allow this observed in- situ differentiation-accumulation processes. Strong constraints such as total emplacement durations (ca. 0.8 Ma, TIMS date) and pluton thickness (1.5 Km, gravity model) allow a quantitative estimation of the various parameters required (injection rates, incubation time,...). The results show that in-situ differentiation may be achieved in less than 10 years at such shallow depth, provided that: (1) The differentiating sills are injected beneath consolidated, yet still warm basalt sills, which act as low conductive insulating screens (eastern part formation in the SJDD intrusion). The latter are emplaced in a very short time (800 years) at high injection rate (0.5 m/y) in order to create a "hot zone" in the shallow crust (incubation time). This implies that nearly 1/3 of the pluton (400m) is emplaced by a subsequent and sustained magmatic activity occurring on a short time scale at the very beginning of the system. (2) Once incubation time is achieved, the calculations show that a small hot zone is created at the base of the sill pile, where new injections stay above their solidus T°C and may interact and differentiate. Extraction of differentiated residual liquids might eventually take place and mix with newly injected magma as documented in active syn-emplacement shear-zones within the "warm" part of the pluton. (3) Finally, the model show that in order to maintain a permanent hot zone at shallow level, injection rate must be of 0.03 m/y with injection of 5m thick basaltic sills eveiy 130yr, imply¬ing formation of a 15 km thick pluton. As this thickness is in contradiction with the one calculated for SJDD (1.5 Km) and exceed much the average thickness observed for many shallow level plutons, I infer that there is no permanent hot zone (or magma chambers) at such shallow level. I rather propose formation of small, ephemeral (10-15yr) reservoirs, which represent only small portions of the final size of the pluton. Thermal calculations show that, in the case of SJDD, 5m thick basaltic sills emplaced every 1500 y, allow formation of such ephemeral reservoirs. The latter are formed by several sills, which are in a mushy state and may interact and differentiate during a short time.The mineralogical, chemical and isotopic data presented in this study suggest a signature intermediate be¬tween E-MORB- and arc-like for the SJDD mafic sills and feeder dykes. The mantle source involved produced hydrated magmas and may be astenosphere modified by "arc-type" components, probably related to a sub¬ducting slab. Combined fluid mobile/immobile trace elements and Sr-Nd isotopes suggest that such subduc¬tion components are mainly fluids derived from altered oceanic crust with minor effect from the subducted sediments. Close match between the SJDD compositions and BABB may point to a continental back-arc setting with little crustal contamination. If so, the SjDD intrusion is a major witness of an extensional tectonic regime during the Early-Carboniferous, linked to the subduction of the Rheno-Hercynian Ocean beneath the Variscan terranes. Also of interest is the unusual association of cogenetic (same isotopic compositions) K-feldspar A- type granite and albite-granite. A-type granites may form by magma mixing between the mafic magma and crustal melts. Alternatively, they might derive from the melting of a biotite-bearing quartz-feldspathic crustal protolith triggered by early mafic injections at low crustal levels. Albite-granite may form by plagioclase cu¬mulate remelting issued from A-type magma differentiation.

Bayesian estimation of diameter distribution during harvesting

Abstract

Bone marrow-derived cells are implicated as a source of lymphatic endothelial progenitors in human breast cancer.

Bone marrow-derived endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) infiltrate into sites of neovascularization in adult tissues and mature into functional blood endothelial cells (BECs) during a process called vasculogenesis. Human marrow-derived EPCs have recently been reported to display a mixed myeloid and lymphatic endothelial cell (LEC) phenotype during inflammation-induced angiogenesis; however, their role in cancer remains poorly understood. We report the in vitro differentiation of human cord blood CD133(+)CD34(+) progenitors into podoplanin(+) cells expressing both myeloid markers (CD11b, CD14) and the canonical LEC markers vascular endothelium growth factor receptor 3 (VEGFR-3), lymphatic vessel endothelial hyaluronan receptor 1 (LYVE-1), and prospero homeobox 1 (PROX-1). These podoplanin(+) cells displayed sprouting behavior comparable to that of LECs in vitro and a dual hemangiogenic and lymphangiogenic activity in vivo in an endothelial cell sprouting assay and corneal vascularization assay, respectively. Furthermore, these cells expressed vascular endothelium growth factor (VEGF) family members A, -C, and -D. Thus, bone-marrow derived EPCs stimulate hemangiogenesis and lymphangiogenesis through their ability to differentiate into LECs and to produce angiogenic factors. Importantly, plasma from patients with breast cancer induced differentiation of CD34(+) cord blood progenitors into hemangiogenic and lymphangiogenic CD11b(+) myeloid cells, whereas plasma from healthy women did not have this effect. Consistent with these findings, circulating CD11b(+) cells from breast cancer patients, but not from healthy women, displayed a similar dual angiogenic activity. Taken together, our results show that marrow-derived EPCs become hemangiogenic and lymphangiogenic upon exposure to cancer plasma. These newly identified functions of bone-marrow derived EPCs are expected to influence the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.

Hydrogen and oxygen isotope behaviors during variable degrees of upper mantle melting: Example from the basaltic glasses from Macquarie Island

We present measurements of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in MORB glasses from Macquarie Island (SW. Pacific Ocean) coupled with determination of bulk H2O content by two independent techniques: total dehydration and FTIR. The incompatible trace elements in these glasses vary by a factor of 12 to 17, with K2O varying from 0.1 to 1.7 wt.%; these ranges reflect a variable degree of closed-system mantle melting, estimated from 1 to 15%. Water concentrations determined by the two techniques match well, yielding a range from 0.25 to 1.49 wt.% which correlates positively with all of the measured incompatible trace elements, suggesting that water is un-degassed, and behaves conservatively during mantle melting. Also, the agreement between the FTIR-determined and extracted water contents gives us confidence that the measured isotopic values of hydrogen reflect that of the mantle. Comparison of the range of water content with that of other incompatible trace elements allows estimation of the water partition coefficient in lherzolite, 0.0208 (ranging from 0.017 to 0.023), and the water content in the source, 386 ppm (ranging from 370 to 440 ppm). We observe a fairly narrow range in delta D and delta O-18 values of -75.5 +/- 4.5 parts per thousand and 5.50 +/- 0 .05 parts per thousand respectively, that can be explained by partial melting of normal lherzolitic mantle. The measured delta D and delta O-18 values of Macquarie Island glasses that range from nepheline- to hypersthene-normative, and from MORB to EMORB in composition, are identical to those in average global MORB. The observed lack of variation of delta D and delta O-18 with 1 to 15% degree of mantle melting is consistent with a bulk melting model of delta D and delta O-18 fractionation, in which water is rapidly scavenged into the first partial melt. The narrow ranges of delta D and delta O-18 in normal mantle are mostly due to the buffering effect of clino- and orthopyroxenes in the residual assemblage; additionally, fast ``wet'' diffusion of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes through the melting regions may further smooth isotopic differences. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of indirect estimation of power output from uphill performance in cycling.

PURPOSE: To use measurement by cycling power meters (Pmes) to evaluate the accuracy of commonly used models for estimating uphill cycling power (Pest). Experiments were designed to explore the influence of wind speed and steepness of climb on accuracy of Pest. The authors hypothesized that the random error in Pest would be largely influenced by the windy conditions, the bias would be diminished in steeper climbs, and windy conditions would induce larger bias in Pest. METHODS: Sixteen well-trained cyclists performed 15 uphill-cycling trials (range: length 1.3-6.3 km, slope 4.4-10.7%) in a random order. Trials included different riding position in a group (lead or follow) and different wind speeds. Pmes was quantified using a power meter, and Pest was calculated with a methodology used by journalists reporting on the Tour de France. RESULTS: Overall, the difference between Pmes and Pest was -0.95% (95%CI: -10.4%, +8.5%) for all trials and 0.24% (-6.1%, +6.6%) in conditions without wind (<2 m/s). The relationship between percent slope and the error between Pest and Pmes were considered trivial. CONCLUSIONS: Aerodynamic drag (affected by wind velocity and orientation, frontal area, drafting, and speed) is the most confounding factor. The mean estimated values are close to the power-output values measured by power meters, but the random error is between ±6% and ±10%. Moreover, at the power outputs (>400 W) produced by professional riders, this error is likely to be higher. This observation calls into question the validity of releasing individual values without reporting the range of random errors.