Digital Epidemiology Reveals Global Childhood Disease Seasonality and the Effects of Immunization

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We would like to thank Fernando Gonzalez-Dominguez and Gilberto Vaughan for providing the chicken pox case reports from Mexico, and the Estonia Health Board, Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Control, for Estonian chicken pox case reports. KB would like to thank Mercedes Pascual, her lab, and Marisa Eisenberg for helpful comments. Jesus Cantu (research assistant, Princeton University) translated and categorized chicken pox searches from Mexico, Thailand, Australia, and the US.

Epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon hospital admission in children - a systematic review

Objectives: NICE/NPSA excluded children under 16 from their guidance concerning medicines reconciliation (MR) upon admission.1 Our aims and objectives of conducting the literature review was to identify the epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon admission, transfer and discharge in children, and if they require MR. Method: Six bibliographical databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, Web of Science and Biosis Previews) and selected key words were used to find epidemiological studies on medication discrepancies in children upon hospital admission, transfer and discharge (key words included ‘medication discrepancy’; ‘medication reconciliation’; ‘hospital admission’; ‘hospital discharge’; ‘hospital transfer’); studies where the data for children could be extracted were included. Results: From the 1239 articles found (in May 2011), eight of the articles had extractable paediatric information, (five from Canada, two from USA, one from UK). Five of the studies involved discrepancies on admission, one involved discrepancies on admission and transfer, one involved discrepancies at transfer and one considered discharge. The reference point used to compare against the admission, transfer and the discharge order differed in each of the studies. Four studies used a rating scale to assess the clinical significance of the discrepancies to demonstrate the potential adverse clinical outcome of patients in the absence of clinical intervention. Two studies2 3 used a rating scale that was used in adults.4 A study of paediatric neurosurgical patients found that initial hospital prescriptions for children differed from the preadmission prescriptions in 39% of occasions and 50% of all prescribing variations had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.2 A study by Coffey et al in general paediatric admissions in Canada showed 22% of patients experienced at least one discrepancy and 29% of the discrepancies had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.3 By comparison an epidemiological study in discrepancies in adults on admission had 38.6% of the discrepancies identified with a potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.4 All the studies involved small samples or specific patient groups such as medically complex patients. However all of the studies demonstrated that discrepancies occurred among paediatric populations during transitions in care settings and mentioned MR as an intervention. Conclusion: The results have shown that discrepancies of medication upon hospital admission, transfer and discharge occur regularly in children. With only one published study in the UK looking at hospital admission in children, and no published articles on the incidence and epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon hospital transfer or discharge further research is required in a wider paediatric population. Further work is also required to define the required interventions to improve practice.

Molecular epidemiology of sexually transmitted human papillomavirus in a self referred group of women in Ireland

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes cervical cancer and external genital warts. The purpose of this study is to document the genotype distribution of HPV in females aged between 18 and 34 who self-referred to an STI clinic with visible external genital warts (EGW). Scrapings were taken from visible external genital warts (EGW). These scrapings were analysed by PCR for the presence of HPV DNA. Positive samples were then genotyped by means of a commercially available assay (LiPA). A comparison of genotyping results determined by the LiPA assay and direct amplicon DNA sequencing was also performed. Results: Ninety-two patients out of 105 samples (88%) had detectable levels of HPV DNA. The majority of individuals with EGW (66%) showed the presence of two or more genotypes. The most common HPV genotypes present in the study population were HPV-6, HPV-11, HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-33 and HPV-53. Potential effects of vaccination on HPV molecular epidemiology indicate that 40% of the patients could have been protected from the high risk genotypes HPV-16 and HPV-18.Conclusion: This is the first report of the molecular epidemiology of external genital warts in women aged between 18 and 34 from Ireland based on results from a LiPA assay. The study shows that most individuals are infected with multiple genotypes including those with high oncogenic potential and that the newly available HPV vaccines could have a significant impact on prevalence of the most common HPV genotypes in this study population.

An examination of the role of the sports and exercise medicine specialist in Ireland- from epidemiology to treatment

The expansion of the specialty of sports and exercise medicine (SEM) is a relatively recent development in the medical community and the role of the SEM specialist continues to evolve and develop. The SEM specialist is ideally placed to care for all aspects of physical activity not only in athletes but also in the general population. As an advocate for physical activity the SEM specialist plays a broad role in advising safe effective sports and recreation participation; screening for disease related to sports participation; examining and contributing to the evidence behind treatment strategies and evaluating any potential negative impact of sports injury prevention measures. In this thesis I will demonstrate the breadth of the role the Sports and Exercise Medicine Specialist from epidemiology to in-depth examination of treatment strategies. In Chapter 2, I examined the epidemiology of sports and recreation related injury (SRI) in Ireland, an area that has previously been poorly studied. We report on 3,172 SRI (14% of total presentations) presentations to the ED over 6 months. Paediatric patients (4-16 yrs) were over represented comprising 39.9% of all SRI presentation compared to 16% of total ED presentations and 18% of the general population. These injuries were serious (32% fractures) and though 49% of injuries occurred during organised competition/practice, 41.5% occurred during recreation-most often at home. In Chapter 3, I examined risk factors associated with hand injury in hurling. The previous chapter highlighted the importance of a firm evidence base underpinning treatment strategies. When measures to improve welfare are introduced not only must potential benefits be measured, so too must potential unwanted adverse outcomes. In this study I examined a cohort of adult hurlers who had presented to the ED with a hurling related injury in order to highlight the variables associated with hand injury in this population. I found the athletes who wore a helmet were far more likely (OR 3.15 95% CI (1.51-6.56) p= 0.002) to suffer a hand injury than athletes who did not. Very few of those interviewed (4.9%) used hand protection compared to 65% who used helmet and faceguard. The introduction of the helmet and faceguard in hurling has undeniably decreased the incidence of head and face injury in hurling. However in tandem with this intervention several observational studies have demonstrated an increase in the occurrence of hurling related hand injuries. This study highlights the importance of being cognisant of unanticipated or unintended consequences when implementing a new treatment or intervention. In Chapter 4, I examined the role of population screening as applied to sport and exercise. This is a controversial area –cardiac screening in the exercising population has been the subject of much debate. Specifically I define the prevalence of exercise induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) using a specifically designed sports specific field-testing protocol. In this study I found almost a third (29%) of a full international professional rugby squad had confirmed asthma or EIB, as compared with 12-15% of the general population. Despite regular medical screening, 5 ‘new’ untreated cases (12%) were elicited by the challenge test and in the group already on treatment for asthma/EIB; over 50% still displayed EIB. In Chapter 5, I examined the evidence supporting current treatment options for iliotibial band friction syndrome (ITBFS). The practice of sports medicine has traditionally been ‘eminence based’ rather than ‘evidence based’. This may be problematic as some of these practices are based upon flawed principles- for example the treatment of iliotibial band friction syndrome (ITBFS). In this chapter, using cadaveric and biomechanical studies I expand upon the growing base of evidence clarifying the anatomy and biomechanics of the area-thereby re-examining the principles on which current treatments are based. The role of the SEM specialist is broad; we chose to examine specific examples of some of the roles that they execute. An understanding of the epidemiology of SRI presenting to the ED has implications for individual patients, sports governing bodies and health resource utilisation. Population screening is an important tool in health promotion and disease prevention in the general population. Screening in SEM may have similar less well-recognised benefits. The SEM specialist needs to be conversant in screening for medical conditions concerning physical activity. A comprehensive understanding of the pathophysiology of a disease is required for its diagnosis and treatment. Due to the ongoing evolution of SEM many treatments are eminence-based rather than evidence‐based practice. Continued re-examination of the fundamentals of current practice is essential. An awareness of potential unwanted side effects is essential prior to the introduction of any new treatment or intervention. The SEM specialist is ideally placed to advise sports governing bodies on these issues prior to and during their implementation.

Epidemiology of diabetes and complications among adults in the Republic of Ireland 1998-2015: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Accurate estimates of the burden of diabetes are essential for future planning and evaluation of services. In Ireland, there is no diabetes register and prevalence estimates vary. The aim of this review was to systematically identify and review studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes and complications among adults in Ireland between 1998 and 2015 and to examine trends in prevalence over time. Methods: A systematic literature search was carried out using PubMed and Embase. Diabetes prevalence estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. Poisson regression was carried out using data from four nationally representative studies to calculate prevalence rates of doctor diagnosed diabetes between 1998 and 2015 and was also used to assess whether the rate of doctor diagnosed diabetes changed over time. Results: Fifteen studies (eight diabetes prevalence and seven complication prevalence) were eligible for inclusion. In adults aged 18 years and over, the national prevalence of doctor diagnosed diabetes significantly increased from 2.2 % in 1998 to 5.2 % in 2015 (p trend ≤ 0.001). The prevalence of diabetes complications ranged widely depending on study population and methodology used (6.5–25.2 % retinopathy; 3.2–32.0 % neuropathy; 2.5-5.2 % nephropathy). Conclusions: Between 1998 and 2015, there was a significant increase in the prevalence of doctor diagnosed diabetes among adults in Ireland. Trends in microvascular and macrovascular complications prevalence could not be examined due to heterogeneity between studies and the limited availability of data. Reliable baseline data are needed to monitor improvements in care over time at a national level. A comprehensive national diabetes register is urgently needed in Ireland.

THE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND HEALTH ECONOMICS OF ANKLE INJURIES

The thesis focuses on a central theme of the epidemiology and health economics of ankle sprains to inform health policy and the provision of health services. It describes the burden, prognosis, resource utilization, and costs attributed to these injuries. The first manuscript systematically reviewed 34 studies on the direct and indirect costs of treating ankle and foot injuries. The overall costs per patient ranged from $2,075- $3,799 (2014 USD) for ankle sprains; $290-$20,132 for ankle fractures; and $6,345-$45,731 for foot fractures, reflecting differences in injury severity, treatment methods, and study characteristics. The second manuscript provided an epidemiological and economic profile of non-fracture ankle and foot injuries in Ontario using linked databases from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. The incidence rate of ankle sprains was 16.9/1,000 person-years. Annually, ankle and foot injuries cost $21,685,876 (2015 CAD). The mean expenses per case were $99.98 (95% CI, $99.70-100.26) for any injury. Costs ranged from $133.78-$210.75 for ankle sprains and $1,497.12-$1,755.69 for dislocations. The third manuscript explored the impact of body mass index on recovery from medically attended grade 1 and 2 ankle sprains using the Foot and Ankle Outcome Score. Data came from a randomized controlled trial of a physiotherapy intervention in Kingston, Ontario. At six months, the odds ratio of recovery for participants with obesity was 0.60 (0.37-0.97) before adjustment and 0.74 (0.43-1.29) after adjustment compared to non-overweight participants. The fourth manuscript used trial data to examine the health-related quality of life among ankle sprain patients using the Health Utilities Index version 3 (HUI-3). The greatest improvements in scores were seen at one month post-injury (HUI-3: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86-0.90). Individuals with grade 2 sprains had significantly lower ambulation scores than those with grade 1 sprains (0.70 vs. 0.84; p<0.05). The final manuscript used trial data to describe the financial burden (direct and indirect costs) of ankle sprains. The overall mean costs were $1,508 (SD: $1,452) at one month and increased to $2,206 (SD: $3,419) at six months. Individuals with more severe injuries at baseline had significantly higher (p<0.001) costs compared to individuals with less severe injuries, after controlling for confounders.

The epidemiology, healthcare and societal burden and costs of asthma in the UK and its member nations: analyses of standalone and linked national databases

Background: There are a lack of reliable data on the epidemiology and associated burden and costs of asthma. We sought to provide the first UK-wide estimates of the epidemiology, healthcare utilisation and costs of asthma. 

Methods: We obtained and analysed asthma-relevant data from 27 datasets: these comprised national health surveys for 2010-11, and routine administrative, health and social care datasets for 2011-12; 2011-12 costs were estimated in pounds sterling using economic modelling. 

Results: The prevalence of asthma depended on the definition and data source used. The UK lifetime prevalence of patient-reported symptoms suggestive of asthma was 29.5 % (95 % CI, 27.7-31.3; n = 18.5 million (m) people) and 15.6 % (14.3-16.9, n = 9.8 m) for patient-reported clinician-diagnosed asthma. The annual prevalence of patient-reported clinician-diagnosed-and-treated asthma was 9.6 % (8.9-10.3, n = 6.0 m) and of clinician-reported, diagnosed-and-treated asthma 5.7 % (5.7-5.7; n = 3.6 m). Asthma resulted in at least 6.3 m primary care consultations, 93,000 hospital in-patient episodes, 1800 intensive-care unit episodes and 36,800 disability living allowance claims. The costs of asthma were estimated at least £1.1 billion: 74 % of these costs were for provision of primary care services (60 % prescribing, 14 % consultations), 13 % for disability claims, and 12 % for hospital care. There were 1160 asthma deaths. 

Conclusions: Asthma is very common and is responsible for considerable morbidity, healthcare utilisation and financial costs to the UK public sector. Greater policy focus on primary care provision is needed to reduce the risk of asthma exacerbations, hospitalisations and deaths, and reduce costs.

The changing epidemiology of Ebstein's anomaly and its relationship with maternal mental health conditions: a European registry-based study

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of Ebstein's anomaly in Europe and its association with maternal health and medication exposure during pregnancy.

DESIGN: We carried out a descriptive epidemiological analysis of population-based data.

SETTING: We included data from 15 European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies Congenital Anomaly Registries in 12 European countries, with a population of 5.6 million births during 1982-2011. Participants Cases included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Main outcome measures We estimated total prevalence per 10,000 births. Odds ratios for exposure to maternal illnesses/medications in the first trimester of pregnancy were calculated by comparing Ebstein's anomaly cases with cardiac and non-cardiac malformed controls, excluding cases with genetic syndromes and adjusting for time period and country.

RESULTS: In total, 264 Ebstein's anomaly cases were recorded; 81% were live births, 2% of which were diagnosed after the 1st year of life; 54% of cases with Ebstein's anomaly or a co-existing congenital anomaly were prenatally diagnosed. Total prevalence rose over time from 0.29 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.41) to 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.57) (p<0.01). In all, nine cases were exposed to maternal mental health conditions/medications (adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 2.64, 95% CI 1.33-5.21) compared with cardiac controls. Cases were more likely to be exposed to maternal β-thalassemia (adjOR 10.5, 95% CI 3.13-35.3, n=3) and haemorrhage in early pregnancy (adjOR 1.77, 95% CI 0.93-3.38, n=11) compared with cardiac controls.

CONCLUSIONS: The increasing prevalence of Ebstein's anomaly may be related to better and earlier diagnosis. Our data suggest that Ebstein's anomaly is associated with maternal mental health problems generally rather than lithium or benzodiazepines specifically; therefore, changing or stopping medications may not be preventative. We found new associations requiring confirmation.

Risk Prediction In Cardiovascular Epidemiology: Considerations for Modeling Composite Endpoints

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

RACIAL/ETHNIC VARIABILITY IN THE EFFECT OF RADIATION ON SECOND PRIMARY THYROID CANCER IN CHILDREN: ANALYSIS USING SURVEILLANCE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND END RESULTS DATA

Increases in pediatric thyroid cancer incidence could be partly due to previous clinical intervention. This retrospective cohort study used 1973-2012 data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program to assess the association between previous radiation therapy exposure in development of second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) among 0-19-year-old children. Statistical analysis included the calculation of summary statistics and univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Relative to no previous radiation therapy exposure, cases exposed to radiation had 2.46 times the odds of developing SPTC (95% CI: 1.39-4.34). After adjustment for sex and age at diagnosis, Hispanic children who received radiation therapy for a first primary malignancy had 3.51 times the odds of developing SPTC compared to Hispanic children who had not received radiation therapy, [AOR=3.51, 99% CI: 0.69-17.70, p=0.04]. These findings support the development of age-specific guidelines for the use of radiation based interventions among children with and without cancer.