Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks

Building on studies by Brayshaw et al. (2009, 2011) of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (land-sea contrast, orography and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealised boundary conditions in the HadGAM1 model. The Himalaya-Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the north-eastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favours baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3

In this study the relationship between the North American monsoon, the Californian sea surface temperature (SST) cold pool, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated using the Hadley Centre's atmospheric climate model, HadAM3. In 1996 Hoskins hypothesized that heating in the North American monsoon might be important for the maintenance of the summertime North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, since the monsoon heating may induce descent to the north-west of the monsoon in the descending eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone. This descent is further enhanced by radiative cooling and is associated with equatorward surface winds parallel to the western coast of North America. These equatorward winds induce oceanic upwelling of cold water and contribute to the formation of the Californian SST cold pool, which may feed back on the anticyclone by further suppressing convection and inducing descent. More recently, Rodwell and Hoskins also investigated the global summer monsoon–subtropical anticyclone relationship. They examined the role that mountains play in impeding the progress of the low-level mid-latitude westerlies, either deflecting the westerlies northwards where they ascend along the sloping mid-latitude isentropes or deflecting them southwards forcing them to descend along the isentropes. In particular, the introduction of the Rockies into a primitive-equation model adiabatically induces descent in the eastern descending flank of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone. These hypothesized mechanisms have been investigated using HadAM3, focusing on the possible suppression of convection by the Californian SST cold pool, the response of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone to the strength of the North American monsoon and the ‘blocking’ of the mid-latitude westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. The role of the Rockies is examined by integrating the model with modified orography for the Rocky Mountains. Changing the height of the Rockies alters the circulation in a way consistent with the mechanism outlined above. Higher Rocky mountains force the westerlies southwards, inducing descent in the eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone as the air descends along the sloping isentropes. The relationship between the North American monsoon and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated by suppressing the monsoon in HadAM3. The suppression of the monsoon is accomplished by increasing the surface albedo over Mexico, which induces anomalous ascent on the eastward flank of the subtropical anticyclone and anomalous polewards surface winds along the western coast of the North American continent, also providing support for the above hypothesis. The removal of the Californian SST cold pool, however, has a statistically insignificant effect on the model, suggesting that in this model the feedback of the SST cold pool on the eastern flank of the anticyclone is weak.

Early detection of ovarian cancer in samples pre-diagnosis using CA125 and MALDI-MS peaks

Aim: A nested case-control discovery study was undertaken 10 test whether information within the serum peptidome can improve on the utility of CA125 for early ovarian cancer detection. Materials and Methods: High-throughput matrix-assisted laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) was used to profile 295 serum samples from women pre-dating their ovarian cancer diagnosis and from 585 matched control samples. Classification rules incorporating CA125 and MS peak intensities were tested for discriminating ability. Results: Two peaks were found which in combination with CA125 discriminated cases from controls up to 15 and 11 months before diagnosis, respectively, and earlier than using CA125 alone. One peak was identified as connective tissue-activating peptide III (CTAPIII), whilst the other was putatively identified as platelet factor 4 (PF4). ELISA data supported the down-regulation of PF4 in early cancer cases. Conclusion: Serum peptide information with CA125 improves lead time for early detection of ovarian cancer. The candidate markers are platelet-derived chemokines, suggesting a link between platelet function and tumour development.

An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Investigating the prevalence and causes of prescribing errors in general practice: the PRACtICe Study

Aim: To determine the prevalence and nature of prescribing errors in general practice; to explore the causes, and to identify defences against error. Methods: 1) Systematic reviews; 2) Retrospective review of unique medication items prescribed over a 12 month period to a 2% sample of patients from 15 general practices in England; 3) Interviews with 34 prescribers regarding 70 potential errors; 15 root cause analyses, and six focus groups involving 46 primary health care team members Results: The study involved examination of 6,048 unique prescription items for 1,777 patients. Prescribing or monitoring errors were detected for one in eight patients, involving around one in 20 of all prescription items. The vast majority of the errors were of mild to moderate severity, with one in 550 items being associated with a severe error. The following factors were associated with increased risk of prescribing or monitoring errors: male gender, age less than 15 years or greater than 64 years, number of unique medication items prescribed, and being prescribed preparations in the following therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, infections, malignant disease and immunosuppression, musculoskeletal, eye, ENT and skin. Prescribing or monitoring errors were not associated with the grade of GP or whether prescriptions were issued as acute or repeat items. A wide range of underlying causes of error were identified relating to the prescriber, patient, the team, the working environment, the task, the computer system and the primary/secondary care interface. Many defences against error were also identified, including strategies employed by individual prescribers and primary care teams, and making best use of health information technology. Conclusion: Prescribing errors in general practices are common, although severe errors are unusual. Many factors increase the risk of error. Strategies for reducing the prevalence of error should focus on GP training, continuing professional development for GPs, clinical governance, effective use of clinical computer systems, and improving safety systems within general practices and at the interface with secondary care.

Relaxing the Tropics to an ‘observed’ state: analysis using a simple baroclinic model

The technique of relaxation of the tropical atmosphere towards an analysis in a month-season forecast model has previously been successfully exploited in a number of contexts. Here it is shown that when tropical relaxation is used to investigate the possible origin of the observed anomalies in June–July 2007, a simple dynamical model is able to reproduce the observed component of the pattern of anomalies given by an ensemble of ECMWF forecast runs. Following this result, the simple model is used for a range of experiments on time-scales of relaxation, variables and regions relaxed based on a control model run with equatorial heating in a zonal flow. A theory based on scale analysis for the large-scale tropics is used to interpret the results. Typical relationships between scales are determined from the basic equations, and for a specified diabatic heating a chain of deductions for determining the dependent variables is derived. Different critical time-scales are found for tropical relaxation of different dependent variables to be effective. Vorticity has the longest critical time-scale, typically 1.2 days. For temperature and divergence, the time-scales are 10 hours and 3 hours, respectively. However not all the tropical fields, in particular the vertical motion, are reproduced correctly by the model unless divergence is heavily damped. To obtain the correct extra-tropical fields, it is crucial to have the correct rotational flow in the subtropics to initiate the Rossby wave propagation from there. It is sufficient to relax vorticity or temperature on a time-scale comparable or less than their critical time-scales to obtain this. However if the divergent advection of vorticity is important in the Rossby Wave Source then strong relaxation of divergence is required to accurately represent the tropical forcing of Rossby waves.

Synthesis and incorporation into cyclic peptides of tolan amino acids and their hydrogenated congeners: construction of an array of A–B-loop mimetics of the Cε3 domain of human IgE

The disruption of the human immunolobulin E–high affinity receptor I (IgE–FcεRI) protein–protein interaction (PPI) is a validated strategy for the development of anti asthma therapeutics. Here, we describe the synthesis of an array of conformationally constrained cyclic peptides based on an epitope of the A–B loop within the Cε3 domain of IgE. The peptides contain various tolan (i.e., 1,2-biarylethyne) amino acids and their fully and partially hydrogenated congeners as conformational constraints. Modest antagonist activity (IC50 660 μM) is displayed by the peptide containing a 2,2′-tolan, which is the one predicted by molecular modeling to best mimic the conformation of the native A–B loop epitope in IgE.

A nipple shield delivery system for oral drug delivery to breastfeeding infants : Microbicide delivery to inactivate HIV

A new drug delivery method for infants is presented which incorporates an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API)-loaded insert into a nipple shield delivery system (NSDS). The API is released directly into milk during breastfeeding. This study investigates the feasibility of using the NSDS to deliver the microbicide sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), with the goal of preventing mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV during breastfeeding in low-resource settings, when there is no safer alternative for the infant but to breastfeed. SDS has been previously shown to effectively inactivate HIV in human milk. An apparatus was developed to simulate milk flow through and drug release from a NSDS. Using this apparatus milk was pulsed through a prototype device containing a non-woven fiber insert impregnated with SDS and the microbicide was rapidly released. The total SDS release from inserts ranged from 70 to 100% of the average 0.07 g load within 50 ml (the volume of a typical breastfeed). Human milk spiked with H9/HIVIIIB cells was also passed through the same set-up. Greater than 99% reduction of cell-associated HIV infectivity was achieved in the first 10 ml of milk. This proof of concept study demonstrates efficient drug delivery to breastfeeding infants is achievable using the NSDS.

Operator space structure of JC*-triples and TROs, I

We embark upon a systematic investigation of operator space structure of JC*-triples via a study of the TROs (ternary rings of operators) they generate. Our approach is to introduce and develop a variety of universal objects, including universal TROs, by which means we are able to describe all possible operator space structures of a JC*-triple. Via the concept of reversibility we obtain characterisations of universal TROs over a wide range of examples. We apply our results to obtain explicit descriptions of operator space structures of Cartan factors regardless of dimension

Context and aims of the Aqua-Planet Experiment

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE) was first proposed by Neale and Hoskins (2000a) as a benchmark for atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) on an idealised water-covered Earth. The experiment and its aims are summarised, and its context within a modelling hierarchy used to evaluate complex models and to provide a link between realistic simulation and conceptual models of atmospheric phenomena is discussed. The simplified aqua-planet configuration bridges a gap in the existing hierarchy. It is designed to expose differences between models and to focus attention on particular phenomena and their response to changes in the underlying distribution of sea surface temperature.

The influence of the QBO on the propagation of equatorial waves into the stratosphere

The variation of stratospheric equatorial wave characteristics with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is investigated using ECMWF Re-Analysis and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The impact of the QBO phases on the upward propagation of equatorial waves is found to be consistent and significant. In the easterly phase, there is larger Kelvin wave amplitude but smaller westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and n = 1 Rossby (R1) wave amplitude due to reduced propagation from the upper troposphere into the lower stratosphere, compared with the westerly phase. Differences in the wave amplitude exist in a deeper layer in summer than in winter, consistent with the seasonality of ambient zonal winds. There is a strong evidence of Kelvin wave amplitude peaking just below the descending westerly phase, suggesting that Kelvin waves act to bring the westerly phase downward. However, the corresponding evidence for WMRG and R1 waves is less clear. In the lower stratosphere there is zonal variation in equatorial waves. This reflects the zonal asymmetry of wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere, the source for the lower-stratospheric waves. In easterly winters the upper-tropospheric WMRG and R1 waves over the eastern Pacific region appear to be somewhat stronger compared to climatology, perhaps because of the accumulation of waves that are unable to propagate upward into the lower stratosphere. Vertical propagation features of these waves are generally consistent with theory and suggest a mixture of Doppler shifting by ambient flows and filtering. Some lower-stratosphere equatorial waves have a connection with preceding tropical convection, especially for Kelvin and R1 waves in winter.

A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

The monitoring of ecological quality and the classification of standing waters in temperate regions: a review and proposal based on a worked scheme for British waters

This paper reviews the ways that quality can be assessed in standing waters, a subject that has hitherto attracted little attention but which is now a legal requirement in Europe. It describes a scheme for the assessment and monitoring of water and ecological quality in standing waters greater than about I ha in area in England & Wales although it is generally relevant to North-west Europe. Thirteen hydrological, chemical and biological variables are used to characterise the standing water body in any current sampling. These are lake volume, maximum depth, onductivity, Secchi disc transparency, pH, total alkalinity, calcium ion concentration, total N concentration,winter total oxidised inorganic nitrogen (effectively nitrate) concentration, total P concentration, potential maximum chlorophyll a concentration, a score based on the nature of the submerged and emergent plant community, and the presence or absence of a fish community. Inter alia these variables are key indicators of the state of eutrophication, acidification, salinisation and infilling of a water body.