The performance of football club managers: skill or luck?

This paper evaluates the extent to which the performance of English Premier League football club managers can be attributed to skill or luck when measured separately from the characteristics of the team. We first use a specification that models managerial skill as a fixed effect and we examine the relationship between the number of points earned in league matches and the club’s wage bill, transfer spending, and the extent to which they were hit by absent players through injuries, suspensions or unavailability. We next implement a bootstrapping approach to generate a simulated distribution of average points that could have taken place after the impact of the manager has been removed. The findings suggest that there are a considerable number of highly skilled managers but also several who perform below expectations. The paper proceeds to illustrate how the approach adopted could be used to determine the optimal time for a club to part company with its manager. We are able to identify in advance several managers who the analysis suggests could have been fired earlier and others whose sackings were hard to justify based on their performances.

Carbon stable isotope analysis of cereal remains as a way to reconstruct water availability: preliminary results

Reconstructing past water availability, both as rainfall and irrigation, is important to answer questions about the way society reacts to climate and its changes and the role of irrigation in the development of social complexity. Carbon stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains is a potentially valuable method for reconstructing water availability. To further define the relationship between water availability and plant carbon isotope composition and to set up baseline values for the Southern Levant, grains of experimentally grown barley and sorghum were studied. The cereal crops were grown at three stations under five different irrigation regimes in Jordan. Results indicate that a positive but weak relationship exists between irrigation regime and total water input of barley grains, but no relationship was found for sorghum. The relationship for barley is site-specific and inter-annual variation was present at Deir ‘Alla, but not at Ramtha and Khirbet as-Samra.

The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects

The activation of aerosols to form cloud droplets is dependent upon vertical velocities whose local variability is not typically resolved at the GCM grid scale. Consequently, it is necessary to represent the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in the calculation of cloud droplet number concentration. This study uses the UK Chemistry and Aerosols community model (UKCA) within the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM3), coupled for the first time to an explicit aerosol activation parameterisation, and hence known as UKCA-Activate. We explore the range of uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects attributable to the choice of parameterisation of the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in HadGEM-UKCA. Results of simulations demonstrate that the use of a characteristic vertical velocity cannot replicate results derived with a distribution of vertical velocities, and is to be discouraged in GCMs. This study focuses on the effect of the variance (σw2) of a Gaussian pdf (probability density function) of vertical velocity. Fixed values of σw (spanning the range measured in situ by nine flight campaigns found in the literature) and a configuration in which σw depends on turbulent kinetic energy are tested. Results from the mid-range fixed σw and TKE-based configurations both compare well with observed vertical velocity distributions and cloud droplet number concentrations. The radiative flux perturbation due to the total effects of anthropogenic aerosol is estimated at −1.9 W m−2 with σw = 0.1 m s−1, −2.1 W m−2 with σw derived from TKE, −2.25 W m−2 with σw = 0.4 m s−1, and −2.3 W m−2 with σw = 0.7 m s−1. The breadth of this range is 0.4 W m−2, which is comparable to a substantial fraction of the total diversity of current aerosol forcing estimates. Reducing the uncertainty in the parameterisation of σw would therefore be an important step towards reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects. Detailed examination of regional radiative flux perturbations reveals that aerosol microphysics can be responsible for some climate-relevant radiative effects, highlighting the importance of including microphysical aerosol processes in GCMs.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Mobilization of seed reserves during germination of four tropical species of the Amazon Rainforest

Seed reserve mobilization during germination of the Amazonian species Myciaria dubia (camu-camu), Eugenia stipitata(araca-boi), Dipteryx odorata (cumaru) and Hymenaea courbaril (jatoba) was evaluated. Seeds were placed in germination chambers at 30 degrees C with it 12 h photoperiod. Analysis of primary metabolites (carbohydrates, lipids and proteins) and fatty acid composition were carried out in quiescent seeds and at four germination stages after radicle protrusion. Germination was high in all species but there were statistically significant differences between species. Differences were also observed with regard to the duration of the germination period. The seeds showed variation in the content and composition of the analyzed compounds. indicating that the mobilization rates of these compounds may affect germination velocity.

Integrable maps with non-trivial topology: application to divertor configurations

We explore a method for constructing two-dimensional area-preserving, integrable maps associated with Hamiltonian systems, with a given set of fixed points and given invariant curves. The method is used to find an integrable Poincare map for the field lines in a large aspect ratio tokamak with a poloidal single-null divertor. The divertor field is a superposition of a magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium with an arbitrarily chosen safety factor profile, with a wire carrying an electric current to create an X-point. This integrable map is perturbed by an impulsive perturbation that describes non-axisymmetric magnetic resonances at the plasma edge. The non-integrable perturbed map is applied to study the structure of the open field lines in the scrape-off layer, reproducing the main transport features obtained by integrating numerically the magnetic field line equations, such as the connection lengths and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate.

Improving the Fluorescence Detectability of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons for Evaluation of Workplace Environments of Cement Industries Processing Organic Residues

The burning of organic residues and wastes in furnaces of cement industries has been an attractive and lucrative approach to eliminate stocks of these pollutants. There is a potential risk for producing PAH in the workplace of industries burning organic wastes, so that highly sensitive analytical methods are needed for monitoring the air quality of these environments. An official method for determination of PAH is based on liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection at fixed excitation and emission wavelengths. We demonstrate that a suitable choice of these wavelengths, which are changed during the chromatographic run, significantly improves the detectability of PAH in atmosphere and particulate matter collected in cement industries.

Microwave-assisted digestion procedures for biological samples with diluted nitric acid: Identification of reaction products

Microwave-assisted sample preparation using diluted nitric acid solutions is an alternative procedure for digesting organic samples. The efficiency of this procedure depends on the chemical properties of the samples and in this work it was evaluated by the determination of crude protein amount. fat and original carbon. Soybeans grains, bovine blood. bovine muscle and bovine viscera were digested in a cavity-microwave oven using oxidant mixtures in different acid concentrations. The digestion efficiency was evaluated based on the determination of residual carbon content and element recoveries using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP OES). In order to determine the main residual organic compounds, the digests were characterized by nuclear magnetic resonance (1 H NMR). Subsequently, studies concerning separation of nitrobenzoic acid isomers were performed by ion pair reversed phase liquid chromatography using a C18 stationary phase, water:acetonitrile:methanol (75:20:5, v/v/v) +0.05% (v/v) TFA as mobile phase and ultraviolet detection at 254 nm. Sample preparation based on diluted acids proved to be feasible and a recommendable alternative for organic sample digestion, reducing both the reagent volumes and the variability of the residues as a result of the process of decomposition. It was shown that biological matt-ices containing amino acids, proteins and lipids in their composition produced nitrobenzoic acid isomers and other organic compounds after cleavage of chemical bonds. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparativo de metodologias de mensuração de VAR para o mercado financeiro brasileiro

Várias metodologias de mensuração de risco de mercado foram desenvolvidas e aprimoradas ao longo das últimas décadas. Enquanto algumas metodologias usam abordagens não-paramétricas, outras usam paramétricas. Algumas metodologias são mais teóricas, enquanto outras são mais práticas, usando recursos computacionais através de simulações. Enquanto algumas metodologias preservam sua originalidade, outras metodologias têm abordagens híbridas, juntando características de 2 ou mais metodologias. Neste trabalho, fizemos uma comparação de metodologias de mensuração de risco de mercado para o mercado financeiro brasileiro. Avaliamos os resultados das metodologias não-paramétricas e paramétricas de mensuração de VaR aplicados em uma carteira de renda fixa, renda variável e renda mista durante o período de 2000 a 2006. As metodologias não-paramétricas avaliadas foram: Simulação Histórica pesos fixos, Simulação Histórica Antitética pesos fixos, Simulação Histórica exponencial e Análise de Cenário. E as metodologias paramétricas avaliadas foram: VaR Delta-Normal pesos fixos, VaR Delta-Normal exponencial (EWMA), Simulação de Monte Carlo pesos fixos e Simulação de Monte Carlo exponencial. A comparação destas metodologias foi feita com base em medidas estatísticas de conservadorismo, precisão e eficiência.

Os investidores reagem à composição das carteiras de fundos?: evidências da crise de 2008

O principal objetivo desse trabalho é identificar o impacto da composição das carteiras dos fundos sobre sua captação no mercado brasileiro. A hipótese central é que, em períodos de crise, a exacerbação da assimetria de informação acerca da qualidade dos ativos faça com que a existência de ativos com exposição ao risco de crédito privado (principalmente Certificados de Depósitos Bancários - CDBs) impacte negativamente a captação. Para testar essa hipótese foram realizadas análises de regressão em painel com dados mensais de fundos de renda fixa e referenciado, exclusivos e não exclusivos, entre 2007 e 2010. Aprofundando a análise, segregaram-se os CDBs entre aqueles emitidos por bancos grandes e médios-pequenos. Dentre os fundos não-exclusivos, encontrou-se que a proporção de CDBs na carteira impactou negativamente a captação de fundos referenciados, ao passo que a presença de CDBs de bancos médios e pequenos impactou negativamente a captação entre os fundos de renda fixa. Nos fundos exclusivos, em que se supõe que o cotista tenha maior poder de intervenção na gestão, não se identificou relação significativa entre exposição a risco de crédito e captação

Microcrédito, emprego e renda: uma pesquisa empírica na ICC-BLUSOL/SC

Esta pesquisa objetivou analisar o impacto do microcrédito junto aos microempreendedores beneficiados pela Instituição de Microcrédito ICC-Blusol de Blumenau, Santa Catarina. De um total de 5.451 clientes foram selecionados e analisados 94, os quais obtiveram microcrédito durante os 10 últimos anos. Para testar a veracidade da afirmação, utilizou-se modelo econométrico utilizando a técnica de dados em painel, através da estimação das variáveis no modelo de efeitos fixos e efeitos aleatórios. Como variável independente utilizou-se a premissa "Valor do Empréstimo" e como variáveis dependentes "Vendas", "Resultado Operacional", "Garantia Real", "Garantia Aval", "Recursos Humanos", "Custos Fixos" e "Custos Variáveis". Conclui -se que somente as variáveis "Vendas" e "Resultado Operacional" validam a afirmação de que o acesso ao microcrédito resulta em incremento de Faturamento e Renda. A criação e manutenção de empregos, embora não tenha sido comprovada na análise estatística, ficou evidente, pois a simples sobrevivência da empresa já pressupõe isto.

The Olympic impact on hosting candidate countries

In this paper, we analyze the impact of hosting the Summer Olympics on macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP, consumption, government consumption and investments per capita. The data is in panel structure and includes the period of ten years before and ten years after the event containing the Olympic Summer Games between 1960 and 1996. The sample countries comprise only candidates to host the games. This sampling strategy allows us to estimate the average treatment effect consistently, because it is assumed that these countries are comparable to each other, including those that ultimately hosted the games. The impact of hosting the Olympic games is measured by Fixed Effect and First Difference regressions. Moreover, we do a structural break test developed by Andrews (1993) to identify if hosting the Olympic Games creates anticipation effects for demand changes that stimulate current GDP, consumption, government consumption and investments. The results indicate a positive effect of the Summer Olympics in all variables of interest. However, the distribution in time and anticipation of these effects is unclear in the tests, changing significantly depending on the model and the significance level used.

Executivo e legislativo no âmbito municipal: a formação de gabinetes no município de São Paulo (1989-2012)

O desenho político-institucional dos municípios brasileiros segue a lógica da esfera federal. Tal sistema tem por características gerais o termo de duração fixa e próprio, tanto para o Executivo quanto para o Legislativo, ou seja, ambos são eleitos diretamente – eleições majoritárias e proporcionais, respectivamente – sem estarem sujeitos à confiança mútua como no sistema parlamentarista. Dada a separação de poderes e o conflito que a literatura ressalta no âmbito federal entre Legislativo e Executivo, o estudo examina a estrutura da dinâmica dessa relação no âmbito municipal. Nesse sentido, o escopo tange as estratégias adotadas na formação dos gabinetes no município de São Paulo de 1989 a 2012, ou seja, contempla 6 (seis) diferentes gestões paulistanas. Para isso foi investigado o perfil político-partidário do secretariado e a correspondência em termos de cadeiras no Legislativo paulistano, bem como os resultados acerca da aprovação de proposituras de iniciativa do Executivo. Os resultados encontrados destacam que a distribuição de pastas não acarreta em um suporte da maioria do parlamento, como no caso federal. Entretanto, apesar da ausência desse apoio, praticamente todos os projetos do Executivo que chegaram ao Plenário foram aprovados. Assim, o estudo aponta que o compartilhamento de poder através da nomeação de secretários partidários é uma ferramenta importante do Executivo, porém pode não ser a única garantidora de uma coalizão majoritária que explique o sucesso legislativo do prefeito.

Desenvolvimento de uma estratégia de fusão gênica visando à localização de proteínas em plantas

Uma significativa quantidade de proteínas vegetais apresenta-se compartimentalizada nas diversas estruturas celulares. A sua localização pode conduzir à elucidação do funcionamento dos processos biossintéticos e catabólicos e auxiliar na identificação de genes importantes. A fim de localizar produtos gênicos relacionados à resistência, foi utilizada a fusão de cDNAs de arroz (Oryza sativa L.) ao gene da proteína verde fluorescente (GFP). Os cDNAs foram obtidos a partir de uma biblioteca supressiva subtrativa de genes de arroz durante uma interação incompatível com o fungo Magnaporthe grisea. Estes cDNAs foram fusionados a uma versão intensificada de gfp e usados para transformar 500 plantas de Arabidopsis thaliana. Outras 50 plantas foram transformadas com o mesmo vetor, porém sem a fusão (vetor vazio). Foram obtidas aproximadamente 25.500 sementes oriundas das plantas transformadas com as fusões EGFP::cDNAs e 35.000 sementes das transformadas com o vetor vazio, produzindo, respectivamente, 750 e 800 plantas tolerantes ao herbicida glufosinato de amônio. Após a seleção, segmentos foliares das plantas foram analisados por microscopia de fluorescência, visando o estabelecimento do padrão de localização de EGFP. Foram observadas 18 plantas transformadas com a fusão EGFP::cDNAs e 16 plantas transformadas com o vetor vazio apresentando expressão detectável de GFP. Uma planta transformada com uma fusão EGFP::cDNA apresentou localização diferenciada da fluorescência, notadamente nas células guarda dos estômatos e nos tricomas. Após seqüenciamento do cDNA fusionado, foi verificado que esta planta apresentava uma inserção similar a uma seqüência codificante de uma quinase, uma classe de enzimas envolvidas na transdução de sinais em resposta à infecção por patógenos.